基金技术分析，找出switching或加码点（第一楼有29/03的文件更新，新加入能量指标图）

湖俊

原帖由 nightclub 于 1-4-2008 15:57 发表

楼主，本身有INVEST很多？

我没投资外国，也没投资基金。

海南的传人

原帖由 湖俊 于 30-3-2008 02:59 AM 发表


哇，问到股票的东西来了

缴足资本就是share issued，配合股价就算出market capital，规模大的公司资本就大咯。

以前规定要上主板，必须有7千万缴足资本，二板要2千万（没记错吧？）

假设主板和2板合并， ...

什么是share issued? 缴足资本是不是一间公司须要给的资金给交易所才可上市? 你几时有空? 我有很多关于股票和基金的疑惑须要你帮我 我来找你....

江百虎

PM  的一篇文章。。。

大意是要應對變動激烈的市場，DCA  還是最好的辦法。。。還有每年至少一次的資產重新配置。。。

不過我還是相信如果真的有人老老實實的跟着  10 日線來走的話，效果應該會比以上兩個方法好很多的。。。如果真的證實了  10 日線的有效性，以后投資人的進出場就更有依據，而不是靠 “感覺”或是 “預測”來轉換了。。。也不用一直在虧錢了拉。。。呵呵。。。

這幾天市場稍微回升，后市雖然還不明朗，但是有跟着 10 日線在 25 日進場的話，現在應該都有小賺一些了吧？？？！！！

Remain Calm Through Market Turbulence

Copyright 2008 by  Public Mutual  



In the wake of the turbulence of stock markets in recent months, unit trust investors may be tempted to either sell or buy. However, investors are advised to remain calm and practise dollar cost averaging with their long-term goals in view.

When regional and global markets succumbed to panic selling in August 2007 and more recently in January 2008, the severity and sharpness of the correction was large enough to make unit trust investors ask themselves whether they should redeem now to stem further losses or buy more units at currently low prices. In fact, if they practise dollar cost averaging, they need not concern themselves with these timing issues. Dollar cost averaging enables investors to automatically buy more units when prices fall and fewer units when prices rise.

It is especially during times of market volatility that individual investors should remain focused on their long-term investment goals and keep their emotions from influencing their investment decisions. A disciplined and methodical approach to investing is the key to long-term investment success.

Unit trust investors are advised to buy and hold their investments for the medium to long term. The buy-and-hold principle is based on the notion that a good investment will generate reasonably attractive returns over the medium to long term. This also means that investors are able to distinguish between daily movements in the market and the underlying long-term value of their investments. Professional fund managers buy and hold for the medium to long term as they are prepared to wait patiently over several years for their investments to reach their intrinsic or fair values. For the unit trust investor, the 'buy-and-hold' strategy can also be applied by holding on to a well-selected unit trust fund over a period of at least three years.

There are some investors who believe they can achieve superior returns by timing the purchase and redemption of equity funds to profit from the stockmarket's short-term movements. These investors are tempted to engage in timing the market especially in an environment where equity markets are volatile. Such investors who wish to make quick gains in the stock market by switching from one fund into another fund will often be disappointed. Market timing strategies that are often recommended by 'investment experts' have seldom been successful. This is because stock markets are inherently volatile and are impossible to predict with numerous factors, both domestic and foreign, affecting daily and weekly fluctuations in stock prices.

Investors who wish to take a more active approach with their investments by timing the market will expose themselves to many risks. In order to profit from the market's short-term trends, the investor has to correctly predict the market's trend and its turning points.

Without the appropriate skills to discern signals and time the entries and exits, the market timer may not only miss opportunities, but also potentially suffer the blow of rapid losses. Also with a higher frequency of fund switching, investors will have to incur increased transaction costs.

Investors who are concerned about market volatility are advised to practise dollar cost averaging as this strategy enables investors to focus on the long-term investment goal and not worry about the prevailing level of the market. Dollar cost averaging is simply investing a fixed amount of money in a financial asset (such as a unit trust fund) on a regular basis (monthly, quarterly, biannual) regardless of the market cycle. By investing a fixed amount on a regular basis, investors will buy more units when the market is lower and fewer units when the market is higher. This strategy will produce a lower average cost of investment than the average market price over any given period.

In addition, investors are also advised to rebalance their portfolios regularly at least once a year to ensure that their portfolio allocation reflects their investment objectives and risk profile. Thus if, as a result of an uptrend in stock prices, an investor's equity exposure has exceeded a level consistent with his risk tolerance, he can trim a portion of the equity funds and switch into bond or money market funds to rebalance the asset allocation accordingly. Maintaining a target asset allocation reduces the risk that the portfolio becomes too concentrated in a single asset class.

In conclusion, unit trust investors should always focus on achieving their medium to long-term investment goals. The practice of dollar cost averaging and regular portfolio rebalancing are effective tools that help investors remain focused on the long term horizon and prevent them from over-reacting to short-term movements of the stockmarket.

[ 本帖最后由 江百虎 于 1-4-2008 09:20 PM 编辑 ]

nightclub

原帖由 湖俊 于 1-4-2008 04:10 PM 发表


我没投资外国，也没投资基金。

那你只是研究？

湖俊

原帖由 nightclub 于 1-4-2008 21:04 发表

那你只是研究？

我是研究和改进，偶尔搞开发新指标。
我投资在基金，我投资股票。

你也要投资？还是要学习？

acboy

有跟着5日10日的指标进场，
甜头没有很多啦。起一点点罗。

但这两天又跌了点点。
看来又要串回下去了。

怎么看？又要小心？又要swtich了？

raymond8685

原帖由 江百虎 于 1-4-2008 03:59 AM 发表
很有趣的一個帖。。。

http://tw.mb.yahoo.com/money2/board.php?&bname=152967967&action=m&tid=6596&p=1

在比誰的基金比較欄。。。呵呵。。。

这是台湾的，中国的应该亏得更惨

我们这里算很好了，才亏那么一点点

raymond8685

原帖由 acboy 于 1-4-2008 11:48 PM 发表
有跟着5日10日的指标进场，
甜头没有很多啦。起一点点罗。

但这两天又跌了点点。
看来又要串回下去了。

怎么看？又要小心？又要swtich了？

希望他踮脚弹升，看武侠片多了，很有联想能力

[ 本帖最后由 raymond8685 于 2-4-2008 12:08 AM 编辑 ]

江百虎

原帖由 acboy 于 1-4-2008 11:48 PM 发表
有跟着5日10日的指标进场，
甜头没有很多啦。起一点点罗。

但这两天又跌了点点。
看来又要串回下去了。

怎么看？又要小心？又要swtich了？

那當然羅。。。

還很遵守指令的話那應該可以賺到一些。。。我一直在想着要怎樣改進指標反而沒有注意到進場的時機。。。miss 掉了。。。

現在是弱市拉。。。不過只要  10 日線還可以維持在正數的話那就還可以投資在股票基金。。。

不過要記得不要用全部的資金來投資羅。。。例如放個  40% ~ 60% 的資金在股票基金就可以了。。。

以防萬一又來個大跌的話就沒有那么傷羅。。。

江百虎

原帖由 raymond8685 于 2-4-2008 12:06 AM 发表
希望他踮脚弹升，看武侠片多了，很有联想能力

別擔心。。。

明天會大起。。。

可惜今天大雨不能開電腦。。。又  miss 掉明天的漲幅了。。。:@

呵呵。。。

湖俊

原帖由 acboy 于 1-4-2008 23:48 发表
有跟着5日10日的指标进场，
甜头没有很多啦。起一点点罗。

但这两天又跌了点点。
看来又要串回下去了。

怎么看？又要小心？又要swtich了？

短期内还不必switch啦，综合指数还是站在1250点，问题不大。

raymond8685

今天美国起整400点，虽然很开心，但是又很担心，我宁愿他慢慢起

湖俊

美国大起大落有时候未必会影响亚洲，要看是什么利好因数。

江百虎

原帖由 raymond8685 于 2-4-2008 07:47 AM 发表
今天美国起整400点，虽然很开心，但是又很担心，我宁愿他慢慢起

每次都來這一套。。。

顯鳥。。。今天大起，明天又跌更多。。。得個吉字而已。。。

如果今晚米國可以平平穩穩的渡過。。。那可能中線還會比較有希望。。。

湖俊

原帖由 江百虎 于 2-4-2008 09:02 发表


每次都來這一套。。。

顯鳥。。。今天大起，明天又跌更多。。。得個吉字而已。。。

如果今晚米國可以平平穩穩的渡過。。。那可能中線還會比較有希望。。。

我已经不去看美国的动态了，反而觉得国内的动态更加影响自己的股市。

有目标的大头

大头的基金NAV又跌了。。。

湖俊

渣到，我朋友买哪个PAGF，前后投资了5000块，买了4905.18个unit，现在每个unit拍RM0.15，他可以拿回RM735.78。够力。

他的DY有15%。。爽死他

acboy

原帖由 湖俊 于 2-4-2008 03:22 PM 发表
渣到，我朋友买哪个PAGF，前后投资了5000块，买了4905.18个unit，现在每个unit拍RM0.15，他可以拿回RM735.78。够力。

他的DY有15%。。爽死他

几时买的？那么快赚到？

acboy

今天又跌了，看来应该跌过5天线了。
转不转？

湖俊

原帖由 acboy 于 2-4-2008 16:25 发表
今天又跌了，看来应该跌过5天线了。
转不转？

现在不是大盘跌，今天的马股，300股起390股跌，其他的平盘，
带动马股起落的股有：



我倒觉得若这近期没什么不利因数发生，则不担心。
综合指数有一半成分是种植股，现在油棕价跌，所以他们跟着跌。

原帖由 acboy 于 2-4-2008 16:24 发表
几时买的？那么快赚到？

2月19号，很不幸的买在最高点。
2月26号，抢反弹失败，结果成为下一轮跌幅牺牲者
3月12号，跟讯号买在一个接近正确的点
3月26号，跟讯号买在正确的点
4月 2号，distribution每个unit得到RM0.15，得到总数1065.78，又直接买回。

我不确定distribution的buy back有没有扣service charge。
若没有的话，我朋友应该会拿到更多unit。

从unit的角度来看，他多了15%的unit。
但其实这些“distribution”算起来也是一样的，但拿的人“爽”
感觉自己Free多了很多unit。