LCL 另类‘黑金'股 - 营业额真的可以倍增？

xzm

看来炒家胃口不小，目标价越喊越高。

小宗

原帖由 LK-Park 于 17-7-2007 12:10 PM 发表
这两天 CIMB 又有 LCL 的 report。。
CIMB 把 LCL 的目标价从 RM8.90 提高到 RM10.90 了。。
以下是 CIMB 的 reports，顺便把旧的也放在一起:

http://lkpark06.googlepages.com/LCL_CIMB_2007-06-07.pdf
...

调整过后还有RM10.90那我就发达咯。。

保守估计，以目前截至中午的闭市价格Rm8.15。

明天将会调整到大概Rm5.40。

Target维持RM10.90就是加多Rm5.6，这就是开了1翻。

那明天我岂不是要扫货？！？

LK-Park

是就爽。。
调整过后的目标价应该是 RM7.25

小宗

原帖由 LK-Park 于 17-7-2007 03:55 PM 发表
是就爽。。
调整过后的目标价应该是 RM7.25

来！不管那么多我们干杯先！

os

原帖由 LK-Park 于 17-7-2007 12:10 PM 发表
这两天 CIMB 又有 LCL 的 report。。
CIMB 把 LCL 的目标价从 RM8.90 提高到 RM10.90 了。。
以下是 CIMB 的 reports，顺便把旧的也放在一起:

http://lkpark06.googlepages.com/LCL_CIMB_2007-06-07.pdf
...

谢谢你提供的资料。

x x x

LCL 的股价 和 Trade Receivables 和 Cimb 的分析动作 和 金人及 NTASIAN 的加入已经超越我的预测和知识范围，所以我也无法 comment 了。。。
大家自己‘执生’吧

x x x

对于大马在整个中东的发展，可以留意最近 WCT 和 LCL 在 Star Bizweek 的经历分享 （关于如何进军 Dubai, Bahrain, Qatar, Abu Dhabai, India 等及面对的问题）, 也可留意一些在中东有显著业务的如 Bonia, IJM, Gamuda，MMC etc 他们的经验等等。。。

[ 本帖最后由 os 于 22-7-2007 09:30 AM 编辑 ]

os

上个拜五我有点不舒服，看到一片满江红，一烦之下，斩了。。

lionyau

等吃大茶饭

os

原帖由 lionyau 于 30-7-2007 12:01 AM 发表
等吃大茶饭

以今天的闭市价和 CIMB 的 target price 来看，我的鲍鱼大茶饭变成叉烧饭了。。  

os

Analysts raise forecasts for LCL earnings, share price
By Chong Jin Hun
jinhun@nstp.com.my

October 8 2007

ANALYSTS have revised upwards their forecasts for LCL Corp Bhd's share price and earnings, in anticipation that the interior fit-out specialist will sustain its income as it secures more global projects.

OSK Investment Bank, which retained its "buy" call for LCL shares, expects the stock to hit RM6.80, an 11 per cent or 70 sen increase over its earlier projection of RM6.10.

The new target price is derived by applying a price-earnings ratio (PER) of 10 times to LCL's fiscal 2008 earnings, in comparison with its regional peers' valuations.

LCL is forecast to earn, in the full year to December 31 2008, a net profit of RM47.5 million, or 67.9 sen a share. Revenue is expected to hit RM453.7 million which is 11 per cent above OSK's previous estimate.

"Our recent visit to Kazakhstan and Dubai for a further update on LCL reveals a series of activities pumping into its order books," OSK analyst Lim Vi Ming said in a note on October 2.

LCL group managing director Low Chin Meng had said in July 2007 that the group had tendered for some RM3 billion worth of jobs globally.

According to TA Securities, LCL's global order book is worth some RM716.1 million of which 81 per cent or RM578.4 million is still outstanding.

TA revised upwards its target price for LCL shares by 90 sen or 17 per cent to RM6.30 based on an average PER of 11 times for small-capitalised main board construction firms.

The research house is maintaining its "buy" rating for securities of LCL.

Earnings wise, LCL's fiscal 2008 and 2009 net profits are expected to touch RM36 million and RM46.9 million respectively, 19.2 per cent and 9.8 per cent above TA's earlier estimates.

LCL, according to TA, is expected to chalk up sales of RM460.6 million and RM598 million respectively in financial years 2008 and 2009.

"We take into consideration LCL's estimated RM400 million worth of new projects from Dubai, Kazakhstan, and India that should propel its revenue and earnings from fiscal 2008 onwards," TA senior analyst Kamarulzaman Hassan said in a note.

LCL more than doubled its net profit to RM6.2 million, or 14.8 sen a share in the second quarter to June 30 2007, while revenue climbed 37 per cent to RM57.1 million.

First half to June 30 2007 net profit also more than doubled to RM10.3 million, or 24.6 sen a share. Revenue rose 34 per cent to RM107.3 million.

Shares of LCL added 2.6 per cent or 15 sen to close at RM5.95 on Friday.

The stock has risen more than fivefold this year, significantly outperforming the benchmark index's 25 per cent rise.

os

24-10-2007: CIMB Research raises LCL earnings
http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.jsp?id=com.tms.cms.article.Article_d053438f-cb73c03a-17ebe660-f9e3a9e0#

CIMB Research has revised LCL Corp Bhd’s FY07-09 net earnings upwards by 18%-45%, mainly to reflect stronger earnings from India and Kazakhstan and a lower effective tax rate.
It said yesterday that it had rolled forward its target price from end-2007 to end-2008 while maintaining our valuation target at our 11 time target P/E for regional interior fit-out (IFO) stocks.

“This gives us a new target price of RM11.75, substantially higher than our previous target of RM7.25,” it said, adding that LCL remained an Outperform and its top small-cap pick.
CIMB Research said potential upward re-rating catalysts for the stock would be its success in bagging more IFO jobs in the Middle East, India and Kazakhstan than it had forecast.

Other factors were lower-than-expected tax rate due to tax-free Dubai earnings, and a strong listing debut on the Dubai Stock Exchange for its rival, Depa Group in the first half of 2008.
CIMB Research said it recently met up with LCL Corp for an update on its operations in Dubai, India and Kazakhstan, and it came out of the meeting buoyed with optimism over the prospects for all the three overseas major markets over the next few years.

“It would seem that the group’s investment in these markets will finally pay off big time over the next few years,” it said.

The research house said Kazakhstan offered exciting long-term growth prospects for LCL. In the past, LCL’s presence in Kazakhstan was not significant and in the past year, it took on only RM20 million to RM30 million worth of IFO jobs. Its outstanding order book is less than RM10 million.

The research house said there was more potential for LCL after its 51:49 partnership with Corporation Stroy-Contract JSC (CSC) to undertake all IFO jobs secured by CSC.
“We understand that CSC has secured four jobs worth US$550 million (RM1.87 billion) in Almaty and Astana, Kazakhstan. IFO works amount to 20% to 35% of the job’s development value,” it said.

On Dubai, it said there was a labour shortage due to the amnesty programme but it did not have a major impact on LCL, which would increase the workforce to more than 1,000.
The research house said the additional workers would help the group complete three major projects over the next few months: the RM108 million Atlantis, The Palm, RM139 million Burj Dubai Mall Hotel and the RM120 million Dubai Marina Mall & Hotel projects.

“We understand the group is negotiating a few IFO jobs in India with some major overseas parties. No details are available as talks are still ongoing. If these projects pan out, they could be a major breakthrough for LCL in India. If all goes well, the company could secure RM100 million to RM200 million worth of IFO jobs,” it said.

CIMB Research said it was raising its FY07-09 earnings forecasts by 18% to 45%, mainly to reflect higher contributions from India and Kazakhstan and a lower effective group tax rate.

os

LCL’s business potential in Kazakhstan huge: Analyst



September 24 2007

LCL Corporation Bhd, an interior fit-out (IFO) company, is expected to be the front-runner in reaping the benefits from the US$31 billion expansion plan to be undertaken by Kazakhstan’s administrative capital Astana, over the next four years, an analyst said today.

In a research note, TA Securities Holdings Bhd analayst Kamarulzaman Hassan said LCL’s business opportunities in Kazakhstan are enormous given that it has established a joint venture with a counterpart in Kazakhstan which is a strong household name.

The company, LCL-SC Interior Creations LLP.LCL-SC, is a joint venture between LCL and JSC Stroy Contract, a Kazakhstan-based property developer and construction company. LCL owns 51 per cent of the joint venture.

“We believe the joint venture will serve LCL favourably as the group will be able to get continuous work from Stroy. Additionally, the joint venture entity will also enable it to bid for more local projects given the strong brand name of the local partner and its connections,” he said.

JSC Stroy is one of the top property developer and construction companies in Kazakhstan. Before the jont venture, LCL had smaller IFO contracts from JSC Stroy.

Kamarulzaman said so far, LCL has completed RM25 million worth of projects in Kazakhstan and its current order book stood at RM15 million.

“The group has aggressively bid for more than RM360 million worth of contracts in Kazakhstan and expects to know the results of some of the bids soon,” he said.

He said based on the discussions with JSC Stroy’s management, the group has secured projects worth US$550 million in the near term focusing on Astana and Almati.

“This will certainly be good news to LCL as we can expect most of the IFO projects to be undertaken by the joint-venture entity. As such, we are not surprised to see LCL’s confidence in achieving a turnover of US$50 million in 2008 before accelerating at a faster pace in the consecutive years,” he said.

Kamarulzaman said in Kazakhstan, IFO constitutes a huge part of the development expenditure.

“According to a Kazakhstan government architect, IFO works alone can fetch between 25 and 40 per cent of the total development value given that most of the property owners want their buildings or houses to be different from others.

He said based on the assumption that 75 per cent of the IFO for JSC Stroy projects worth US$550 million were given to LCL, 25 per cent of the development value was for IFO and the tenure of the project was three years, the joint-venture entity could see a sales of US$34.4 million for financial year ending December 31, 2008.

“Based on its 2006 financial result of net margin of 7.6 per cent, the joint- venture entity is expected to report its maiden net profit of RM9.1 million of which RM4.7 million will be LCL’s 51 per cent portion,” he said. - Bernama

os

Monday October 1, 2007

LCL’s foray proves fruitful

Its venture in Kazakhstan shows promise as it expects to secure bigger contracts via its local joint venture partner, LCL-SC Interior Creations LLP


LCL Corp Bhd's foray into Kazakhstan nearly two years ago might pay dividend as the interior fit-out (IFO) specialist is expected to grow by leaps and bounds as bigger contracts could be secured in the near future.   The company is one of the first Malaysian companies to venture into Kazakhstan and it has found the business to be very lucrative.   Group managing director Low Chin Meng said: “We aim to become a one-stop-centre for all IFOs in Kazakhstan and possibly in Central Asia”.   

LCL as an established IFO is involved in interior decoration (construction and structure,) fit-out works, manufacturing of generic and customised wood furniture, supply and installing metal fittings, fixtures, building materials, stone work, plaster ceiling work, furniture trading and offers property development services.   

Low encourages more Malaysian companies to seize the opportunity to start their bases in Kazakhstan, especially vendors/suppliers of the IFO industry such as lighting equipment producers, carpet purveyors, roof and floor tile manufacturers, and landscapers.  

“We will try our best to help them build their businesses by providing support and network in Kazakhstan,” he said, adding that LCL also took some time to develop its brand name and presence in Kazakhstan.   

Low said: “We feel there is ample business opportunities for vendors of ancillary services to the IFO industry in Kazakhstan and LCL wants to develop a pool of vendors and suppliers for its IFO business.”   

Earlier this year the company partnered with JSC Stroy Contract - a Kazakhstan based property developer, under joint venture - LCL-SC Interior Creations LLP, to bid for projects worth over RM360mil. LCL has a 51% stake in LCL-SC Interior Creations.   

Low said so far LCL had completed RM25mil worth of jobs in Kazakhstan and currently had an order book of RM15mil.   

“We started by providing IFOs for residential homes but with the tie-up JSC Stroy Contract - a reputable high-end developer and contractor, especially in hotels, complexes and commercial buildings the future for LCL-SC Interior Creations LLP looks very promising,” he told StarBiz recently.   

Low said: “LCL-SC Interior Creations is targeting to achieve RM175mil revenue in its first year of operations in Kazakhstan.” LCL, he said, was initially apprehensive about doing business in Kazakhstan.   

“However I was encouraged by the Malaysian ambassador to Kazakhstan, Datuk Than Tai Hing to visit the place a couple of years ago and was impressed by the rapid development taking place there.”   In recent years, Kazakhstan has experiences tremendous economic growth fuelled mainly by deep-sea oil and gas exploration by multinationals.

Kazakhstan's gross domestic product over the past five years has been averaging 9.4% per annum.

“We foresee huge demand for housing and commercial property developments in the coming years especially in Astana - Kazakhstan's administrative capital and Almaty (the former capital city),” said Low.   

On the company's partnership with JSC Stroy Contract, he said it was a perfect fit.  

“ JSC Stroy Contract is a premium developer and construction company. LCL is a leading IFO in Malaysia. We can leverage-off each other's expertise to provide quality residential and commercial properties with superior furnishing,” said Low.

He said about 60% of the materials used by LCL in Kazakhstan was from Malaysia which helped to boost Malaysian exports.   

Low said LCL-SC Interior Creations LLP plans to have its own factory in Kazakhstan next year. “We are now using one of JSC Stroy Contract's premise as a factory site to assemble and manufacture some of our IFO products such as windows and doors but sometime next year our new factory will be ready which will allow us to expand faster and lower our operating cost,” he noted.  

LCL has over 100 Malaysians employed in Kazakhstan as tooling experts in carpentry, tiling, and landscape work. The company has also partnered with a Malaysian architectural firm to produce its own designs.   

Low also encourages Malaysian property developers facing stiff competition at home to try to do business in Kazakhstan.   

“The window of opportunity is now while the country's development is at the infancy level and there is new found wealth to spur infrastructure works,” he said, adding that Astana was earmarked for a major expansion plan worth RM45.5bil in the next four years.  Low said more hotels and leisure centres were required in Kazakhstan. Moreover the country would host the Asian Winter Games in 2011.   

On funds for its overseas expansion, including those in Kazakhstan, he said: “We plan to raise between RM300mil and RM400mil via a rights or bond issue in the immediate term,” he said, adding that much of the capital raised would be used for working capital and asset acquisitions.   

Besides Kazakhstan and Malaysia, LCL also has operations in India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), especially in Dubai.   

“UAE is likely to continue to underpin LCL's growth in the next four to five years but in the longer-term Kazakhstan might also be a major contributor as profit margins were better there,” he said.   

Recently LCL secured an RM110mil contract in Palm Jumeira, Dubai, its third project in the city. The company has RM467mil worth of contracts in UAE, which constitutes about 80% of its outstanding order book, which has ballooned to over RM700mil.   

Early this month, LCL was awarded RM33mil sub-contract to do interior design fit-outworks at Bank Negara Malaysia's new six-storey office building.   

However, Low said the company expects future growth to come from overseas operations, as the furniture business in Malaysian was too competitive.   

Currently over 70% of LCL's earnings is from overseas, while the balance from Malaysia.

[ 本帖最后由 os 于 29-10-2007 10:59 PM 编辑 ]

os

募然回首，今天的 LCL 已经来到了 RM7.70 (相等于红股前的 RM11.55)
如果接下来真的来到 CIMB target 的 RM11.75 (相等于红股前的 RM17.60)，那么，有幸在大半年前底点 RM 1.60 买进的朋友，还有机会可以在一年内狠狠地开上 1000% 或三番多。
以今天的闭市价来看，还可以有 50% 的上涨空间。（如果我们选择相信大户）

可惜，我已经在红股后的五块多六块抛了出去（相等于红股前的八块多九块），只留下少数，目的是想继续收集年报。
仍然继续持有的朋友，你们还有机会和大户们继续博弈，我则被轰出局了。

CIMB 大胆的预测了三年后 2009 年 LCL 可以交出 RM74.7m 的 net profit，也就是比 2006 年的 RM13m,多了 474% 或两番多。
如果三年后这个预测成真，那么 target price RM11.75 @ PE = 10。
如果这个价为可以提早达到，相信外资会高兴的套利离场。要不，就循序渐进的随着时间和业绩一同增长。
这个战役，也让我见识到大户是如何的运用传媒，舞高弄底，浑身解数的去到中东，进行分析报告。

技术上，LCL 的‘优势'在于股本够少（红股前才 44.3 mil units）,造成少量的基金，就可以轻易的舞高弄底。
并幸运的吸引了一班国内外基金朋党们的青睐。（也因为有实力，所以才有运气的跟随）。

x x x

如果我们抛开一切股价因素，LCL 确实是大马一间出众的公司。
有谁可以料到，刘增铭一个学历不高的木匠，可以带领一间不需高科技的装修公司，冲出大马，扬名海外。
在此，希望 LCL可以继续为大马创造财富，带来荣誉。

[ 本帖最后由 os 于 29-10-2007 11:07 PM 编辑 ]

os

很久没有探望旧爱了。。。看回一下当年预测的26大风险：

1. 过度曝光（明修栈道，暗渡陈沧）--> CIMB 应该赚了不少
3. 股市走到了尽头，在欢呼声中破灭 --> 小破灭过后好像又要开始欢呼了
16. 工程太多，无法如期完成，启动逾期罚款，恶化 cashflow，名声大跌 --> 比较像被中东人拖到。。
18. 木，铁，洋灰，混凝土，地砖，granite, plasterboard 等原料起价，加重成本 --> 行情好就有这种问题
20. 美国经济放缓，导致油价下跌，‘跟着油走的策略’，掉入死胡同 --> 过去一年的确如此，油价来到USD 30+
21. 拖账和烂账的风险 --> 不要紧，其他大马公司也中招
22. 建筑和产业泡沫破裂 --> 中东，dubai 产业从高峰好像大约回落 40%

想当年，LCL 也搭上大趋势，并且还“幸运的”得到大马第一“大行”的“拔刀相助”。不知大家还记得吗。。
中短期的趋势掌握，回筹的确很不错。不过长期的话，恐怕冻过水了。
希望这个例子，可以让大家警惕风险，跟进功课，审时度势的重要性。

x   x   x   x

岔开话题，CIMB现在又有其他新的搞作，应该是在快多收了很多票，然后现在高喊 target RM6.65
不知大家有没有注意到？（也是建筑股来的。。。）

NamGnir

跟人家的风，买进了五粒 , tp 0.9 比6.65差很多下
~~~

ecoung

原帖由 NamGnir 于 22-10-2009 20:32 发表
跟人家的风，买进了五粒 , tp 0.9 比6.65差很多下
~~~

LCL不是一项好选择，没记错的话，债台高筑，掌鸵的之前被炒了，要多小心。
怎么看，都看不出TP0.90。
要小心....

NamGnir

原帖由 ecoung 于 22-10-2009 22:35 发表


LCL不是一项好选择，没记错的话，债台高筑，掌鸵的之前被炒了，要多小心。
怎么看，都看不出TP0.90。
要小心....

毕竟是跟风,所以只会短炒,有机会就要卖出去了。。。
原来被炒了哦，announcement说他辞职，就奇怪才40多，做莫会辞职。。。

marcjacob123

掌鸵的好像是今年年初baru上班而已，做么才工作了几个月就被炒了哦

Silly_boyz

有大大可以分析下這個股 最近的走勢嗎??
想賣了...不過又怕他起...

ecoung

原帖由 marcjacob123 于 26-10-2009 01:28 发表
掌鸵的好像是今年年初baru上班而已，做么才工作了几个月就被炒了哦

（吉隆坡）LCL企業（LCL,7177,主板貿服組）的董事部出現變動，主席拿督什葉阿里法茲拉和執行董事彭友豐，已向公司遞交辭呈，即日生效，但沒有透露辭職原因。
LCL企業創始人兼董事經理拿督劉增銘將接替新任主席一職，劉增銘也是這間公司大股東。
LCL企業也宣佈並且委任現年46歲的林彭建為新任首席執行員，他之前是本地商業銀行企業部主管，曾任班底控股和成業家私（SYF,7082,主板消費品組）董事。

连董事局都在变动了...

http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/28754

这种情况，还有点像Apple和雅虎...创办人回来主持大局了...