福布斯 ：马来西亚的泡沫经济前景堪忧 .. 大家小心

cct2050

泡沫 大泡沫

我最近曾撰文说明了印尼经济是如何坠入典型的由信贷和资产泡沫拉动的增长之中的，而其邻国马来西亚以及大多数其他东南亚经济体也走在同样的道路上。这些国家都是整个新兴市场泡沫的一部分，过去几年以来我一直对此泡沫提出警告。

这一新兴市场泡沫始于2009年。而在此之前的全球金融危机期间，中国为了提振他们的经济，实施了一种激进的以基础设施建设为主的信贷驱动型增长策略。随着建设活动蓬勃发展，拉动了一轮让澳大利亚和新兴市场等大宗商品出口国获益极大的全球原材料热潮，同时中国的经济迅速回暖。新兴市场持续好转的运势开始吸引全球投资者的关注，当时这些投资者正试图将资产从正处于金融危机震中的西方国家分散投资到其他地区。

美国、欧洲和日本的超低利率，加上美联储规模达数万亿美元的量化宽松（QE）计划，促使过去四年以来总额达4万亿美元的投机性“热钱”连续不断地流入新兴市场的投资资产中。于是就出现了一股全球利差交易的热潮——投资者以低利率从美国和日本借入资金，然后将这些资金投资于高收益的新兴市场资产，从中赚取利差。对新兴市场资产的需求急剧飙升，从而导致债券泡沫以及超低借贷成本，而这在许多发展中国家又引发了政府主导的基础设施建设热潮，致使信贷增长快得惊人，催生出房地产泡沫。

在2008年金融危机之后，马来西亚的资本流入急剧增加，导致马来西亚林吉特兑美元汇率在短短两年内便上升了25％：

外国投资者持有的以马来西亚林吉特计价的国债份额达到历史最高水平：

外商直接投资额（净流入，按当前美元价值计）立即从其因全球金融危机引发的急剧暴跌中强劲回升，而且急剧飙升至新高：

受益于外国投资者的兴趣越来越大，马来西亚吉隆坡综合股指上涨了120％：

马来西亚是一个典型的信贷泡沫故事

近年来，马来西亚规模已达3,030亿美元的经济一直在以平均6％的速度增长，而这在很大程度上是由于政府和家庭信贷泡沫持续膨胀所致。

自2010年以来，马来西亚的公共债务占国内生产总值比例（public debt-to-GDP ratio）一直徘徊在50％以上的历史最高水平附近。造成这种局面的原因是，在全球金融危机期间，马来西亚为了提振经济，推出了一揽子激进的经济刺激计划，从而产生了巨额的财政赤字。根据彭博社进行的一项研究显示，现在马来西亚的公共债务占GDP比例在十二个亚洲新兴国家当中位居第二高，仅次于斯里兰卡。马来西亚高昂的公共债务负担导致惠誉（Fitch）今年7月份下调其主权信用评级展望。

马来西亚政府自1999年以来年年出现财政预算赤字：

和他们的政府一样，马来西亚的家庭也是无节制地过度负债，从而导致该国的家庭债务占GDP比例已达到创纪录的83％——为东南亚国家中家庭债务负担的最高水平，与2009年的70％相比有明显攀升，而与1997年亚洲金融危机开始时的39％相比更是大幅上升。自2008年以来，马来西亚的家庭债务总额每年平均增长12％左右。

当马来西亚的银行贷款利率处于历史低位时，看到该国的家庭债务泡沫持续膨胀并不意外：

超低利率已经促使马来西亚的私营部门贷款规模自2008年以来增长了80％以上：

马来西亚的M3货币供应量（衡量一国经济中货币和信贷总额的一个广义指标，）显示出一个令人担忧的类似趋势：

马来西亚家庭债务高企导致该国央行——马来西亚国家银行（Bank Negara）最近实行了新的贷款规则——限定个人贷款的最长期限为10年，抵押贷款的最长期限为35年——与以前抵押贷款期限通常为45年相比明显缩短。

马来西亚消费者协会联合会（FOMCA）首席执行官（CEO）、拿督保罗•塞尔瓦拉吉（Datuk Paul Selva Raj）说，47％的马来西亚年轻人目前正“欠有大量债务”（还债开支占他们总收入的30％或更多），这可能很快就会让他们最终尝到苦果。

“购买汽车和信用卡债务是马来西亚消费者破产的主要原因，”保罗说，“这是我们所处的文化，人们很强调身份和‘时尚'——但时玩尚就得花钱。”

马来西亚的家庭信贷泡沫正在帮助推动一轮消费者开支热潮：

马来西亚的新登记牌照汽车数量自2008年以来增长了50％：

马来西亚的企业融资债务（包括公司债券和银行贷款）也以惊人的速度攀升，从2007年占GDP的79.9％攀升至2013年占GDP的95.8％。

马来西亚还有房地产泡沫

和处于新兴市场泡沫中的大多数其他国家一样，马来西亚除了有信贷泡沫之外，还有房地产泡沫。

下面的图表显示马来西亚房地产总体价格急剧上涨：

住房抵押贷款在马来西亚的家庭债务总额中差不多占据一半的份额，而住房抵押贷款的急剧飙升正是马来西亚的家庭债务规模正如此快速增长的一个主要原因。

旨在建造东南亚地区最高建筑——118层楼高的独立遗产大厦（Warisan Merkeka Tower）的计划，无疑是一个明显的摩天大楼指数（Skyscraper Index）危险信号。

马来西亚的泡沫经济将会如何破灭

虽然在今年夏天的新兴市场溃败中，马来西亚的境况好于印尼、印度和巴西，但该国仍然存在极其危险的经济泡沫，当新兴市场总体泡沫真的破灭时，其经济泡沫也将会破灭。当中国的经济泡沫破灭以及/或者随着全球和本国利率继续攀升（这正是最初导致马来西亚出现信贷和资产泡沫的原因）时，马来西亚的泡沫很可能会破灭。美联储QE缩减计划的重新启动可能会在不久的将来对马来西亚的金融市场造成压力。马来西亚的经常项目盈余因出口疲软而迅速恶化，这是另一个令人担忧的事态发展。

正如我一直所说的那样——甚至在今年夏天的新兴市场恐慌之前，我预计新兴市场泡沫的最终破灭，将会导致与1997年亚洲金融危机相类似的另一场危机，而且鉴于目前有更多的国家（拉丁美洲、中国和非洲）被卷入其中，以及因为全球经济目前所处的状况比1990年代后期风头正劲时更加疲弱，这一次的危机很有可能会更加糟糕。

hawmes

不是很懂
有請高人解釋.
TQ

andytby

我已经准备就绪，来吧！

110_01

熱帶人種沒有辦法維持優勢基因，所以每次由北方征服掉渙散的原住民後發展出來的新文明，都會隨時間逐漸走向萎靡，最終滅亡

TSLai

我只想知道泡沫破了,小龙女一个晚上会变成多少钱呢?

DNA11

难到现在的国家的金融法律还没有从97年加强吗？
泡沫发生基本是在没控制好新危机， 你说的好像是和97年前很象。
我国还没受到之前的教训吗！还是人都是贪心选择善忘？
我看到jb这里的公寓project就和97前很像，股市就没97那么疯狂。
我也觉得会来一次大萧条，只是时间问题。

zyrtec

即是说美国QE3若在明年3月期间退出，大马在2-3年内会出现房产泡沫？
觉得房价只是会延缓上升，不会下跌。

英俊大肥猪

是就好，别仙家我，听到都闲。

负债累累

我现在都已经被污、洞搞得负债累累、半死不活鸟。风暴快点来把，我只寄望能置之死地而后生。

cct2050

英文版 ：

Malaise Is Ahead For Malaysia's Bubble Economy 10/15/2013  Forbes Magazine

（ Correction: this report originally cited Robert Prior-Wandesforde of Credit Suisse for reporting that Malaysian housing prices were rising “30 to 40 percent annually in property prices, with some areas rising by 50 percent.” This quote has been removed as it refers to Indonesian property prices.)

I recently wrote about how Indonesia’s economy has devolved into a classic credit and asset bubble-driven growth story, and its neighbor Malaysia is on the same path along with most other Southeast Asian economies, which are part of the overall emerging markets bubble that I have been warning about in the last couple of years.

The emerging markets bubble began in 2009 after China pursued an aggressive credit-driven infrastructure-based growth strategy to bolster their economy during the global financial crisis. China’s economy quickly rebounded as construction activity flourished, which drove a global raw materials boom that greatly benefited commodities exporting countries such as Australia and emerging markets. Emerging markets’ improving fortunes began to attract the attention of global investors who were seeking to diversify away from Western nations that were at the epicenter of the financial crisis.

Rock-bottom interest rates in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, combined with the Federal Reserve’s multi-trillion dollar quantitative easing programs encouraged a $4 trillion torrent of speculative “hot money” to flow into emerging market investments over the past four years. A global carry trade arose in which investors borrowed at low interest rates from the U.S. and Japan, invested the funds in high-yielding emerging market assets, and pocketed the interest rate differential or “spread.” Soaring demand for EM assets led to a bond bubble and ultra-low borrowing costs, which resulted in government-driven infrastructure booms, alarmingly fast credit growth, and property bubbles in numerous developing nations.

Surging capital inflows into Malaysia after the Crash of 2008 caused the ringgit currency to rise 25 percent against the U.S. dollar in just two years:

Foreign holdings of ringgit-denominated bonds hit an all time high:

Foreign direct investment (net inflows, current dollars) immediately recovered from its crisis-induced plunge to dramatically surge to new highs:

Source: IndexMundi.com

The Kuala Lumpur Composite stock index rose 120 percent, aided by growing interest from foreign investors:

Malaysia Is A Classic Credit Bubble Story

Malaysia’s $303 billion economy has been growing at an average 6 percent rate in recent years due in large part to a growing government and household credit bubble.

Since 2010, Malaysia’s public debt-to-GDP ratio has been hovering at all time highs of over 50 percent thanks to large fiscal deficits that were incurred when an aggressive stimulus package was launched to bolster the country’s economy during the Global Financial Crisis. After Sri Lanka, Malaysia now has the second highest public debt-to-GDP ratio among 13 emerging Asian countries according to a Bloomberg study. Malaysia’s high public debt burden led to a sovereign credit rating outlook downgrade by Fitch in July.

Malaysia’s government has been running a budget deficit since 1999:

Like their government, Malaysian households are also binging on debt, which has caused the county’s ratio of household debt to GDP to hit a record 83 percent – Southeast Asia’s highest household debt load – which is up from 70 percent in 2009, and up greatly from the 39 percent ratio at the start of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. Malaysian household debt has grown at around12 percent annually each year since 2008.

t’s no surprise to see an inflating household debt bubble when Malaysia’s bank lending rate is at record lows:

Ultra-low interest rates have caused Malaysia’s private sector loans to increase by over 80 percent since 2008:

Malaysia’s M3 money supply, a broad measure of total money and credit in the economy, shows a similar worrisome trend:

Malaysia’s high level of household debt led the country’s central bank, Bank Negara, to recently impose lending rules that cap maximum terms of personal loans to 10 years and mortgages to 35 years – a decrease from the common 45 year mortgages.

Datuk Paul Selva Raj, CEO of the Federation of Malaysian Consumers Associations (FOMCA), said 47 percent of young Malaysians are currently in “serious debt” (debt payments amount to 30 percent or more of their gross income), something that could catch up with them very quickly.

“Car purchases and credit card debts are among the main reasons for bankruptcy in Malaysia,” said Paul. “It’s the culture we live in. There’s a lot of emphasis on status and being ‘cool’ – but being cool costs money.”

Malaysia’s household credit bubble is helping to fuel a consumer spending boom:

Malaysian car registrations are up by 50 percent since 2008:

Malaysian corporate leverage, which includes corporate bonds and bank loans, is also rising at an alarming rate, reaching 95.8 percent of GDP in 2013 from 79.9 percent in 2007.

Malaysia Also Has A Property Bubble

Like most other countries that are part of the emerging markets bubble, Malaysia has a property bubble in addition to its credit bubble.

The charts below show the parabolic rise of overall Malaysian property prices:

Source: GlobalPropertyGuide.com

Accounting for nearly half of all household debt, soaring mortgage loan growth is a primary reason why Malaysia’s household debt is increasing at such a rapid rate.

Plans to build the tallest building in Southeast Asia, the 118-story Warisan Merdeka Tower, are a major Skyscraper Index red flag.

How Malaysia’s Bubble Economy Will Pop

While Malaysia has fared better than Indonesia, India and Brazil during this summer’s emerging markets rout, the country still has an extremely dangerous economic bubble that will pop when the overall emerging markets bubble pops in earnest. Malaysia’s bubble will most likely pop when China’s economic bubble pops and/or as global and local interest rates continue to rise, which are what caused the country’s credit and asset bubble in the first place. The resumption of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s QE taper plans may put pressure on Malaysia’s financial markets in the near future.

Malaysia’s rapidly deteriorating current account surplus due to weaker exports is another worrisome development.

As I’ve been saying even before this summer’s EM panic, I expect the ultimate popping of the emerging markets bubble to cause another crisis that is similar to the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, and there is a strong chance that it will be even worse this time due to the fact that more countries are involved (Latin America, China, and Africa), and because the global economy is in a far weaker state now than it was during the heady days of the late-1990s.

科学就是未来

世界经济都面对问题，现在美国无力，欧洲乏力，剩下中国，它一倒，世界没一个地方经济会好。

现在经济不明朗也好，大家才会理财，才会管理好钱，所以最近不管国内和欧美MNC, 在采购东西方便，都变得比较在意价钱，而在price and value 之间取得一个平衡点，不像之前某些欧美公司只在乎value。

steven268h

科学就是未来 发表于 28-10-2013 12:05 AM
世界经济都面对问题，现在美国无力，欧洲乏力，剩下中国，它一倒，世界没一个地方经济会好。

现在经济不 ...

中国16家银行也面对了4万亿的国内欠债/呆债问题，还没有算各区/省份的政府欠债问题。中国也一样有问题。

cycad

我很期待大马股市崩溃。:lol

nakata017

明日复明日, 明日何其多

科学就是未来

steven268h 发表于 28-10-2013 07:44 AM
中国16家银行也面对了4万亿的国内欠债/呆债问题，还没有算各区/省份的政府欠债问题。中国也一样有问题。
...

中国还没有爆发，一爆就完蛋了，所以大家都很头痛，大家都在小心，因为现在世界各国都不能完全不受中国经济风暴影响，加上欧美各国现在也不好

steven268h

科学就是未来 发表于 28-10-2013 08:21 AM
中国还没有爆发，一爆就完蛋了，所以大家都很头痛，大家都在小心，因为现在世界各国都不能完全不受中国经 ...

迟早而已，现在中国靠的是热钱在撑，只要各国陆续撤资转移去第三国家，要看中国怎样去让泡沫消灭了。欧美已经提倡企业本地化了，接下来就有好戏看了。

JGK5079

小市民看不懂呢，楼主是专家级别

wilhb81

总结以上的那篇文章：马奶最坏的情况，不就破产呗~

shiwanah

我也看不懂..
是好还是不好？

红衣骑士

日子只有越来越苦没有越来越好。