<选股的艺术> 查理.芒格著

ladybird07

我引用了查理.芒格的<选股的艺术>里的一些段落，来分享一下这门"艺术"。此文可在http://www.vinvesting.com/docs/munger/art_stockpicking.html 找到。我喜欢这篇文章。但我的语文能力有限，请多多包涵和纠正我的错误。


Art of Stock Picking by Charlie Munger
<选股的艺术> 查理.芒格著


"......the theory of modern education is that you need a general education before you specialize. And I think to some extent, before you're going to be a great stock picker, you need some general education."
现代教育的论点是在还没专业化之前，你需要的是概括性的教育。在某种程度上，你先得获得概括性的教育，然后才成为伟大的"选股者"。


"What is elementary, worldly wisdom? Well, the first rule is that you can't really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang 'em back. If the facts don't hang together o n a latticework of theory, you don't have them in a usable form."
什么是基本、普通的智慧？第一个规则是如果你只记能住孤立的事件而已，你是不能懂得任何东西的。若那些事件无法被套在节构交错的理论上，它们是不处于可以被利用的形式。


"You've got to have models in your head. And you've got to array your experience both vicarious and direct o n this latticework of models. You may have noticed students who just try to remember and pound back what is remembered. Well, they fail in school and in life. You've got to hang experience o n a latticework of models in your head."
在你的脑袋里，你必须有模式。你需要在各种模式上，整顿你间接和直接获得的经验。你可能观察到学生们只是尝试记住和给回所记得的东西。他们会在学校和生活里经历失败。你必须使经验可以被套在你脑袋里的模式。


"What are the models? Well, the first rule is that you've got to have multiple models because if you just have o ne or two that you're using, the nature of human psychology is such that you'll torture reality so that it fits your models, or at least you'll think it does."
什么是模式？你需要拥有多重的模式。人们心理会扭曲现实，以便使它与你的模式一致，或你认为是如此。


"It's like the old saying, "To the man with o nly a hammer, every problem looks like a nail."
正所谓: "对于一个只有捶子的人，任何问题看来就像钉子。


"And the models have to come from multiple disciplines because all the wisdom of the world is not to be found in o ne little academic department."
思想模式必须来自多元的领域，因为世界上的智慧不会在小小的学院内找到。


待续......

ladybird07

文接一楼...

"You may say, "My God, this is already getting way too tough. "But, fortunately, it isn't that tough because 80 or 90 important models will carry about 90% of the freight in making you a worldly wise person. And, of those, o nly a mere handful really carry very heavy freight."
你会说："天啊，这太困难了!" 庆幸的是，因为八十或九十个重要的模式在使你成为有智慧的过程中，有着90%的比重。少许的也可带有很大的比重。

"So let's briefly review what kind of models and techniques constitute this basic knowledge that everybody has to have before they proceed to being really good at a narrow art like stock picking.
让我们来检讨有什么模式和技巧可以包含在必须拥有的基本知识。

＊＊＊

First there's mathematics. Obviously, you've got to be able to handle numbers and quantities basic arithmetic. And the great useful model, after compound interest, is the elementary math of permutations and combinations. And that was taught in my day in the sophomore year in high school. I suppose by now in  great private schools, it's probably down to the eighth grade or so."
第一，数学。你必须有能力处理数字和数量。好用的模式有复数，置換和联合。这是在大学二年级有教的。我推想现在私人学校在八年纪可能有教了。

"It's not that hard to learn. What is hard is to get so you use it routinely almost everyday of your life. The Fermat/Pascal system is dramatically consonant with the way that the world works. And it's fundamental truth. So you simply have to have the technique.

Many educational institutions &#8209; although not nearly enough have realized this. At Harvard Business School, the great quantitative thing that bonds the first year class together is what they call decision tree theory. All they do is take high school algebra and apply it to real life problems. And the students love it. They're amazed to find that high school algebra works in life...."
那并不难学，难的是如何运用在日常生活中。Fermat/Pascal原理(关于或然率－probability）是和世界的运作是非常一致的。这是基本的真相。你只需要有那个技巧。

很多教育机构不能够充分了解。在哈佛商学院，把第一年班级和数目联系在一起的是"决策树"的理论。他们做的只是在真实生活中运用代数学。学生们非常喜欢。他们惊讶于代数学竟然可以用在生活上。

"So you have to learn in a very usable way this very elementary math and use it routinely in life &#8209; just the way if you want to become a golfer, you can't use the natural swing that broad evolution gave you. You have to learn to have a certain grip and swing in a different way to realize your full potential as a golfer."
因此你需要学习运用这基本数学，将它运用在日常生活里。比如你要成为高尔夫球手，你不能利用普通自然进步学来的摇摆球棒的方法。你得学习一种不同的抓法和摇摆球棒法，以让你的潜能完全被发挥。

One of the advantages of a fellow like Buffett, whom I've worked with all these years, is that he automatically thinks in terms of decision trees and the elementary math of permutations and combinations....
好像巴菲特这样的人，一路来我和他一起工作，有这么的一个长处：他可以自然而然地想到"决策树"与置換和联合的基本数学。

待续......

[ 本帖最后由 ladybird07 于 14-11-2008 09:53 PM 编辑 ]

ladybird07

文接二楼...

Obviously, you have to know accounting. It's the language of practical business life. It was a very useful thing to deliver to civilization. I've heard it came to civilization through Venice which of course was o nce the great commercial power in the Mediterranean. However, double-entry bookkeeping was a hell of an invention.
明显的，你得懂得会计。它是实际商业的语言。它是献给文明的一个有用的东西。我听说它来到文明世界是通过威尼丝，是一个曾经强大的商业势力。不过，记账是一个很糟的发明。

But you have to know enough about it to understand its limitations &#8209; because although accounting is the starting place, it's o nly a crude approximation. And it's not very hard to understand its limitations. For example, everyone can see that you have to more or less just guess at the useful life of a jet airplane or anything like that. Just because you express the depreciation rate in neat numbers doesn't make it anything you really know.
但你又要充分了解它，以便明白它的局限。虽然它是一个开始，但它却是粗躁的猜测。理解它的局限并不难。举个例子，你们大概猜猜喷射机或其他相似物体的寿命。你可以用数字来表达折旧率，并不代表你真正地懂得。

In terms of the limitations of accounting, o ne of my favorite stories involves a very great businessman named Carl Braun who created the CF Braun Engineering Company. It designed and built oil refineries &#8209; which is very hard to do.
对于会计的局限，其中我最爱的故事涉及到一个伟大的商人，Carl Braun。他创立了CF Braun Engineering Company。她设计和建造炼油厂。

And Braun, being the thorough Teutonic type that he was, had a number of quirks. And o ne of them was that he took a look at standard accounting and the way it was applied to building oil refineries and he said, "This is asinine."
Braun, 一个古板的人，有一些怪癖。其中只一便是看看标准会计如何运用在炼油厂的建立。他说："这是驴子。"

So he threw all of his accountants out and he took his engineers and said, "Now, we'll devise our own system of accounting to handle this process. "And in due time, accounting adopted a lot of Carl Braun's notions. So he was a formidably willful and talented man who demonstrated both the importance of accounting and the importance of knowing its limitations.
然后他驱赶了全部会计师，和工程师说："现在，我们将发明自己的会计系统。"最后，会计将会采用很多Carl Braun的想法。他是那么可怕地深思熟虑和有天赋。他示范了会计的重要性和会计的局限。


待续......

ladybird07

文接三楼...

He had another rule, from psychology, which, if you're interested in wisdom, ought to be part of your repertoire &#8209; like the elementary mathematics of permutations and combinations.

His rule for all the Braun Company's communications was called the five W's &#8209; you had to tell who was going to do what, where, when and why. And if you wrote a letter or directive in the Braun Company telling somebody to do something, and you didn't tell him why, you could get fired. In fact, you would get fired if you did it twice.
他(既是Braun)也有一个规律，来自心理学。若你有兴趣提升智慧，应当成为你收藏目录的一部分。

对于Braun Company的沟通惯例叫"五个W"。你必须问谁(who)在做，还要问做什么?(what?) 那里?(where?) 几时?(when?) 为什么?(why?)。如果你写了信和命令，并不告诉他为什么，你会被炒。

You might ask why that is so important? Well, again that's a rule of psychology. Just as you think better if you array knowledge o n a bunch of models that are basically answers to the question, why, why, why, if you always tell people why, they'll understand it better, they'll consider it more important, and they'll be more likely to comply. Even if they don't understand your reason, they'll be more likely to comply.
你会问为什么那么重要?因为这是心理学。如果你用思维模式来整顿知识,你会思考得更好。只因模式基本上解答"为什么?为什么?为什么?"如果你常告诉别人原因，他们会更了解、更重视、更可能会遵从。即使他们不懂你个人理由，他们也会可能遵从。

So there's an iron rule that just as you want to start getting worldly wisdom by asking why, why, why, in communicating with other people about everything, you want to include why, why, why. Even if it's obvious, it's wise to stick in the why.
无论与人沟通任何话题，铁律是问"为什么?为什么?为什么?"即使话题显而易见，坚持问"为什么?为什么?为什么?"，是聪明之举。


待续......

[ 本帖最后由 ladybird07 于 14-11-2008 11:24 PM 编辑 ]