股市要调整了

tanhy

最近S&P吵着要取消英国和美国的AAA地位英国我能理解，为何作为S&P老板的美国也有可能被downgrade?
我的推测是，美国不可能失去AAA

Obama政府不是傻的，当然知道美国的债务迟早会爆炸，所以才会苦口婆心警告美国人要担心美国的债主会抛弃美元

其实不需要担心，因为已经发生了
最近美元一直跌，而commodities 一直起，何解？

有专家说这是经济复苏的先兆

我在一个blog看到一帮美国人在当心美元大跌的问题，里面有说到中国政府正在抛售美元，买进commodities

这刚好和我在1个月前和一个中国的知识份子说的不谋而合

中国人不是傻的，而且比你我更聪明
美国人乱印钞票，你以为中国人会坐在那里等死？
当然是把储蓄拿去买金，买commodities, 买石油
所以最近BDI大起

美元大跌，inflation就要来了，怎么办？
看来我也要花时间研究commodities 了

alpinev18

華府放水減銀行集資 美報：壓力測試做手腳 少籌9200億
(明報)2009年5月11日 星期一 05:05

【明報專訊】[url=]美國
[/url]銀行壓力測試結果揭盅，10間不合格的銀行要集資746億[url=]美元
[/url]，但《[url=]華爾街日報
[/url]》昨披露，政府在測試中讓步向銀行「放水」，令測試力公信力成疑。華府跟銀行經兩周討價還價，華府最終讓步，縮減美銀、花旗、富國三大行的資本要求規模約500億美元，加上華府計算資本水平時，又採用較寬鬆的一級資本充足比率，令銀行可少籌680億美元。19大行原要逾1900億美元補充資本，現只需約四折便了事，即少籌1180億美元（約9200億港元）。
市場對壓力測試結果反應正面，但《華爾街日報》昨報道，測試結果公布前，華府跟參與測試銀行不時就集資額爭辯，至少一半銀行要求推翻結果。最後華府同意讓步，縮減要求銀行填補「黑洞」的資本，單是美銀、富國及花旗的集資規模，便減少約500億美元（見表），五三銀行（Fifth Third）及SunTrust亦獲得扣減。監管當局還因應銀行業首季業績理想，向下修訂資本要求。集資額據報較去年底的預估減少近200億美元。
「集資額不反映虧損實况」
報道引述知情人士透露，[url=]聯儲局
[/url]4月向銀行發表初步結果時，美銀、富國及花旗這3間集資額最高銀行的高層都大感不滿，認為儲局「誇大」其資金需求。美銀最初獲悉要集資超過500億美元時，感到「震驚」。花旗的資金缺口原本亦達350億美元，高層要求儲局一併考慮公司正進行的交易，作為提高資本計劃的一部分。曾公開表示壓力測試是「愚笨」的富國主席柯瓦希維奇（Richard Kovacevich），與當局的討價還價尤其激烈。有官員擔心富國可能興訟，迫使政府只好讓步。
華府官員則為處理壓力測試的手法辯護，指華府回應業界訴求時，仍有維持測試的嚴謹性。但《華爾街日報》質疑，銀行最終只需集資746億美元，是銀行與華府討價還價的結果，並不完全反映銀行潛在經營虧損的實况。
好友滿意 料股市可漲兩成
然而，在金融股大反彈下，許多大行仍看好後市，包括瑞銀、UniCredit及大和證券。大好友[url=]摩根大通
[/url]首席美股策略師李爾（Thomas Lee）周末更向客戶宣稱，今年標普500指數將升至1100點，即離周五收市還有21％升幅。他指零售數據穩定、二手樓市場回暖及其他數據都顯示，衰退底部或在年中出現。但他又補充稱股市有機會再次試探3月的低位，之後才會回升，屆時投資者便可「大規模入市」。
華爾街日報/[url=]紐約
[/url]時報/金融時報

http://hk.news.yahoo.com/article/090510/4/c3xx.html

看來和TANHY大大的想法很相近.

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 26-5-2009 02:28 PM 发表
華府放水減銀行集資 美報：壓力測試做手腳 少籌9200億
(明報)2009年5月11日 星期一 05:05

【明報專訊】美國
銀行壓力測試結果揭盅，10間不合格的銀行要集資746億美元 ...

美国政府狗到不得了
不久前我又看到一篇文章讲他们在就业报告灌水
上个月的失业率是把一大票的打散工的人也归为“就业”
如果把这些排除在外，搞不好失业大军高过1Million

Temasek卖股票亏大钱，很多小新的人鸟他们为何不迟点卖
据我对小新政府的观察，他们绝对是务实派
卖股票是对美国的没信心，鬼会知道Fed会cheap到又印钞票，又灌水,又讲骗话来拉抬股市？

小新vs美国政府，我绝对支持小新

tanhy

S&: Home prices fall by record 19.1 percent in 1QClosely watched index shows home prices set record annual decline in 1st quarter

• On Tuesday May 26, 2009, 9:37 am EDT

• Buzz up! 
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[size=1em]NEW YORK (AP) -- Home prices fell at the fastest annual rate ever in the first quarter, but the pace of month-to-month declines continues to slow, a closely watched housing index showed Tuesday.

[size=1em]The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller National Home Price index reported home prices tumbled by 19.1 percent in the first quarter, the most in its 21-year history.
[size=1em]Home prices have fallen 32.2 percent since peaking in the second quarter of 2006 and are at levels not seen since the end of 2002.
[size=1em]The 20-city index fell by 18.7 percent in March from the year before and the 10-city index lost 18.6 percent. Those declines were a bit better than February's and marked the second straight month the indexes didn't post record drops.
[size=1em]Still, there are no signs home prices have hit bottom.
[size=1em]"We see no evidence that a recovery in home prices has begun," said, David M. Blitzer, chairman of the S& index committee.
[size=1em]All 20 cities showed monthly and annual price declines, with nine setting annual records. Fifteen cities posted double-digit drops and three cities -- Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Francisco -- all recorded declines of more than 30 percent.
[size=1em]Minneapolis posted a 6.1 percent decline from February to March, and the biggest monthly drop on record for all of the metro area.
[size=1em]Charlotte, North Carolina, and Denver home prices had the best performance in March over February, both edging up less than 1 percent. Home prices in Dallas were flat in March.

[size=1em]老兄，千万要顶到下个月才好大跌
[size=1em]吃饭吃粥靠你了

tanhy

Consumer confidence soars, but wallets still shutConsumer confidence reaches highest since September, but don't expect big spending surge

• Anne D'Innocenzio, AP Retail Writer
• On Tuesday May 26, 2009, 6:57 pm EDT

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Related:

• Gap Inc.
• , Sears Holdings Corporation

[size=1em]NEW YORK (AP) -- Even with unemployment still rising and home prices still slumping, Americans are getting their confidence back in the economy.
Related Quotes
SymbolPriceChangeGPS17.01+0.62

SHLD57.85+2.45

[size=1em]A widely watched barometer of confidence unexpectedly rose to the highest level since September, buoyed by an unexpected surge in the stock market, hopes that the job market might turn around and the belief that the worst of the recession is behind us.
[size=1em]But don't expect shoppers to buy expensive jeans and fancy furniture anytime soon.
[size=1em]"Consumers are not likely to spend just because they think things will get better," said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia. "They will actually have to see them get better."
[size=1em]很好, 的确是炒股票的好理由
[size=1em]如果你问那些负值产的人，10个里面有9个会告诉你楼市现在已经见底
[size=1em]人没有希望，就和咸鱼没有分别
[size=1em]不过有希望还是要还债！

tanhy

UAW trust to get up to 20 percent of GM sharesUAW health care trust to get up to 20 pct of GM shares, plus seat on board of directors

• Tom Krisher, AP Auto Writer
• On Tuesday May 26, 2009, 6:34 pm EDT

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Related:

• Delphi Corp.
• , Ford Motor Co.
• , General Motors Corporation

[size=1em]DETROIT (AP) -- A cost-cutting deal between the United Auto Workers and General Motors Corp. will give a union-run health care trust fund a smaller stake in the automaker than previously expected, but it also could be the catalyst that allows the company to restructure outside of bankruptcy court.
[size=1em]很好，这些贪得无厌的UAW终于肯让步了（我只是学Obama)
[size=1em]既是说bondholder可能会得到更好的offer
[size=1em]GM还是有可能可以不破产！

tanhy

Real Estate Indexes Plunge Further
[size=100%]The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes continued to set record declines in March 2009, according to new data released by S&P.
[size=100%]The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index fell 19.1% in Q1 2009 over year-ago levels, the largest drop in the index's 21-years of back-tested data.
[size=100%]The more widely used 10-City and 20-City Composites dropped 18.6% and 18.7% respectively, according to S&P's statement about the latest figures for the indexes.
[size=100%]The average home price in the nation is now down 32.2% from its peak in Q2 2006, and home prices have retreated to levels last seen in Q4 2002.

[size=100%]房市泡沫从97-07，所以理论上也要跌到97的水平才算合理
[size=100%]楼市还有20%的下跌空间，当然这不把美元危机计算在内

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 26-5-2009 06:25 PM 发表


美国政府狗到不得了
不久前我又看到一篇文章讲他们在就业报告灌水
上个月的失业率是把一大票的打散工的人也归为“就业”
如果把这些排除在外，搞不好失业大军高过1Million

Temasek卖股票亏大钱，很多小 ...

大大, 有失业率的文章的LINK 嗎?

另: 淡馬錫賣票了? 那里有LINK ?

alpinev18

又卡貼啦!!!!! :@ :@ :@ :@

今天还是向北.

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 27-5-2009 09:00 AM 发表 大大, 有失业率的文章的LINK 嗎?另: 淡馬錫賣票了? 那里有LINK ?

就业的文章不记得在那里了,因该在这个网站，只是太多东西了
http://seekingalpha.com/dashboard/the_macro_view?source=headtabs


Temasek 可以看这里
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/430885/1/.html

tanhy

Slumping Treasury bond prices send stocks lowerStocks tumble as 10-year note yield jumps on worries about borrowing costs; Dow falls 173A steep drop in the price of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note pushed its yield up to 3.75 percent from 3.55 percent late Tuesday and to the highest level since November. Bond investors were selling on concerns that the huge amount of debt the government is selling to fund its bailout programs will ultimately keep Treasury prices down.
债卷大起，危险的讯号

tanhy

Mortgage-Bond Yields Jump, Jeopardizing Fed’s Housing Effort 

Share | [email=?Subject=Bloomberg%20news:%20%20Mortgage-Bond%20Yields%20Jump,%20Jeopardizing%20Fed%E2%80%99s%20Housing%20Effort%20&body=%20Mortgage-Bond%20Yields%20Jump,%20Jeopardizing%20Fed%E2%80%99s%20Housing%20Effort%20%0D%0A%0D%0A%20http%3A//www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3Demail_en%26sid%3DaoDg3HyZveWY]Email[/email] | Print | A A A

By Jody Shenn
May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage bonds rose for a fourth day, after exceeding for the first time yesterday their levels before the Federal Reserve announced it would expand purchases to drive down interest rates on new loans.
Yields on Washington-based Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30- year fixed-rate mortgage bonds climbed to 4.55 percent as of 3:15 p.m. in New York, the highest since Dec. 5 and up from 3.94 percent on May 20, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

在一片Green Shoots 唱好声中，房屋抵押利息却爆起
价值投资者因该知道这意味着什么

tanhy

Yield Curve Steepens to Record as Debt Sales Surge (Update1) 

Share | [email=?Subject=Bloomberg%20news:%20%20Yield%20Curve%20Steepens%20to%20Record%20as%20Debt%20Sales%20Surge%20(Update1)%20&body=%20Yield%20Curve%20Steepens%20to%20Record%20as%20Debt%20Sales%20Surge%20(Update1)%20%0D%0A%0D%0A%20http%3A//www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3Demail_en%26sid%3DaDoudpT9wy_I]Email[/email] | Print | A A A

By Dakin Campbell
May 27 (Bloomberg) -- The difference in yields between Treasury two- and 10-year notes widened to a record on concern surging sales of U.S. debt will overwhelm the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep borrowing costs low.
The so-called yield curve steepened to 2.75 percentage points, surpassing the previous record of 2.74 percentage points set on Aug. 13, 2003. Yields on 10-year notes have risen more than 100 basis points since Fed officials said in March they would buy up to $300 billion of U.S. debt over six months to drive consumer rates down and lift the economy from recession.
“The markets are starting to grapple with the issue of what happens when the Fed exits and the Treasury needs to continue at the same pace,” said [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=David+Greenlaw&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]David Greenlaw[/url], the chief financial economist in New York at Morgan Stanley, one of the 16 primary dealers that trade with the Fed and are required to bid at government bond auctions.
Treasuries fell for a fourth day amid concern record supply will overwhelm investor demand as the economy begins to show signs of stability. The U.S. will likely sell $3.25 trillion of Treasuries in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 to fund bank bailouts, stimulus spending and a record budget deficit, according to primary dealer Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Ten-year notes have lost 10.3 percent this year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes, while 30-year bonds have lost 27.5 percent. Two-year notes have gained 0.2 percent.

短期债卷起是因为中国继续买进（而且又用这些债卷来买commodities)
长期债卷跌了10%, 除了危险还是危险

Fed已经是骑虎难下，当初把银行国有化，就不会搞到这样
人为性的把贷款利息降低，却造成今天的美元危机

lonely2

tanhy 大大
下次可以把字弄大吗？
看的很辛苦
谢谢

tanhy

原帖由 lonely2 于 28-5-2009 10:52 AM 发表
tanhy 大大
下次可以把字弄大吗？
看的很辛苦
谢谢

好吧，很多时候我是用CHROME来看，而CARI不support CHROME ,font不能变大
下次我用IE来开

tanhy

12 pct. are behind on mortgage or in foreclosureDelinquencies and foreclosures set record in 1st quarter, driven by prime loan defaults

• On Thursday May 28, 2009, 10:05 am EDT

• Buzz up!
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[size=1em]NEW YORK (AP) -- An industry report shows that a record 12 percent of homeowners with a mortgage are behind on their payments or in foreclosure as the housing crisis spreads to borrowers with good credit.

[size=1em]The Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday the foreclosure rate on prime fixed-rate loans doubled in the last year, and now represents the largest share of new foreclosures. Nearly 6 percent of fixed-rate mortgages to borrowers with good credit were in the foreclosure process.
[size=1em]At the same time, almost half of all adjustable-rate loans to borrowers with shaky credit were past due or in foreclosure.
[size=1em]California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida accounted for 46 percent of new foreclosures in the country.
[size=1em]
[size=1em]房屋贷款风暴已经蔓延到优质房贷
[size=1em]房市见底？
[size=1em]随着股市起了这么多，“less bad is good" 已经不能发挥神奇效用
[size=1em]是时候show hand 了

tanhy

GM says bondholders support sweetened offerGeneral Motors says bondholders support offer of up to 15 percent of its stock to reduce debt

• On Thursday May 28, 2009, 10:09 am EDT

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Related:

• General Motors Corporation

[size=1em]DETROIT (AP) -- General Motors Corp. says a committee of bondholders has agreed to a sweetened deal to erase some of the automaker's debt in exchange for company stock.
Related Quotes
SymbolPriceChangeGM1.29+0.14

[size=1em]The company said in a statement Thursday that it offered bondholders 10 percent of the company's stock with warrants to buy up to 15 percent if they agree to support selling the company's assets to a new company under bankruptcy court protection.
[size=1em]The company made the disclosure in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
[size=1em]The filing says if the bondholders didn't agree to support the sale, then the amount of stock and warrants they get would be reduced or eliminated.
[size=1em]
[size=1em]我还是希望GM能逃过大难，这样股市才有借口推动最后一波

tanhy

Fed’s Fisher Says Economy Faces ‘Very Slow Slog’ to Recovery

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By Steve Matthews and Timothy R. Homan
May 28 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President
[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Richard+Fisher&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Richard Fisher[/url]
said the U.S. slump will probably persist until next year as consumers remain cautious, while the outlook for inflation remains “meek.”.
The economy faces a “very slow slog” to recovery, Fisher said today in the text of a speech in Washington. The recession “will moderate in the current quarter, and then we are likely to bounce along the bottom for a while,” with “meaningful sustained growth” doubtful before the end of this year.
Fisher urged Congress not to “politicize” the central bank by taking a role in selecting Fed district bank presidents. Some lawmakers suggested such a role over concerns that
[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Stephen%0AFriedman&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Stephen Friedman[/url], former chairman of the New York Fed’s board of directors, also served as a director of the board of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Friedman quit the Fed post this month.
The Fed may step up purchases of assets to secure a stronger economic recovery, minutes of the April 28-29 meeting released last week showed. The Fed’s Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep unchanged its targets for purchases of housing debt and long-term Treasuries amid signs the economic contraction may be easing.
Fisher repeated his view that the U.S. unemployment rate will reach 10 percent, more than most of his colleagues. Fed officials projected a deeper U.S. contraction with a 9 percent unemployment rate lasting through the end of 2010, according to the minutes.
Fisher’s view on the economy is more pessimistic than private forecasters. The U.S. recession will probably end in the third quarter, according to a survey yesterday by the National Association for Business Economics.

我发现到Fisher是Fed 里头的异议份子，最喜欢和当权派唱反调
听说Fed开会讨论要不要发动印钞机时，Fisher是大力反对
我怀疑很多Fed里头的肮脏事（比如说stress test灌水）是他放出来, 只是我在yahoo 和google finance都没有看到那则新闻。很多消息可能已经被封杀了.
Fisher更说他去中国时，被中国官员围攻，鸟Fed烂印钞票
注意这个人，他说的话，绝对更有可能反映当前危机

tanhy

Stocks jump on relief over gov't debt auctionStocks jump on relief over good demand for government debt; Oil jumps to 6-month high
The bond market recovered on Thursday, bringing stocks along with it, a day after panicky selling pushed long-term borrowing rates to their highest level in six months.
Stock indicators rose more than 1 percent, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which gained almost 104 points.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a widely used benchmark for mortgages and other kinds of loans, moved decisively lower to 3.62 percent from 3.75 percent the day before as investors were relieved to see ample demand at an auction for Treasury debt.
The note's yield had surged the day before, triggering a selloff in stocks, on concerns that a flood of U.S. government debt coming to market this year would overwhelm demand. In addition to raising borrowing costs for the government, higher yields on long-term Treasurys could threaten a recovery by driving up borrowing costs for consumers. The Federal Reserve has said it would buy large amounts of Treasurys and other kinds of debt in an effort to keep borrowing costs low.

听起来好像让人喘了一口气，问题是，谁买了这些长期债卷？
绝对不是外国投资者，人人都知道大把债卷等着卖，yield肯定会更高，唯一的可能是。。。
如果不思考，不做功课，只是看了这些头条就跳进去股市
10条命都不够死

tanhy

现在就好像Fed在对抗全世界，刚开始时Fed领先1比0，最近被打成一平
最后谁会赢？
我买Fed

会输