欧元/美金 EUR/USD 讨论区

polis001

在今天早上的汇整中，我们认为在查理斯达尔文生日纪念两百年的这天引用他的“物种起源”是再恰当不过（喜欢历史的人，今天也是林肯的生日）。随着金融市场跟自经济大萧条后最大的一次危机扭打，达尔文的“强者生存”论调似乎将目前银行一个接一个的对次级放贷危机投降并接受政府救济的情况形容的非常贴切。（例如花旗银行以及RBS）所以在所有的事情都告一个段落后，银行，或者说更重要的-货币，究竟会有什么样的发展呢？这还需要进一步的观察，不过大体而言是不乐观的。因此，我们认为美元兑欧元，英镑，及加元多半会因为属于避险货币的原因而持续走强，当然还有其它的因素存在。要记得，美元在次级房贷风暴发生的开端，也就是2007年八月时出现大幅上涨（欧元/美元从1.38跌至1.33）。 随着美国国会议员对现代美国公司的首席执行官们的嘲讽持续进行，我们期待看到更多的股市及套息交易方面的动乱和美元的上涨。此外，我们认为加拿大自1977年以来公布第一次预算赤字这类的新闻对加元非常负面，月底前到达1.35是有可能的。接下来是8:30的美国零售销售量和每周失业人口数，还有10点的商业库存量。祝好运！
汇市动向
·         据说东欧保证金帐户在1.2820-00附近买进欧元/美元，基本面业者在1.2875附近卖出
·         据报日本出口商在90.40-50卖出美元/日圆，半官方帐户在890.80-75买进
·         势头帐户在0.6510突破卖出澳元/美元，听说有实力的买家在0.6415附近买进
·         据说英镑/美元势头式止损在1.4130以下，0.9075-80是欧元/英镑关键水平

今日分析
·         200小时移动平均在1.2890
·         55小时移动平均在1.2910
·         心理阻力在1.3000
·         隔夜低点为1.2797


关注焦点
我们认为欧元/美元在未来的12小时被局限在1.2750-1.2920区间，可以在1.2885-1.2905逢高做空，止损1.2945， 目标1.2765。或可以买进1.2765，止损1.2725，目标1.2850。

ocm11

最差的一个星期。。。。
希望不会令大家失望吧。。。

jerrykhor

原帖由 ocm11 于 14-2-2009 10:30 AM 发表
最差的一个星期。。。。
希望不会令大家失望吧。。。

你太客气了。。连赢19，没有loss...很好的成绩了。。。
不知什么时候可以向你请教请教。。。

lantern

今天100pips的大gap，大家如何看？

ocm11

哈哈。。。
100pips 也不要影响我们的心情。。。。price by price ....

原帖由 lantern 于 16-2-2009 10:14 AM 发表
今天100pips的大gap，大家如何看？

qplldb

EU劲升，大家的阻力价格在那里呢？

我的在１.2605

ocm11

对今天有点乱水，先 UP 后 DOWN。。。。
不过还是过关。。。哈哈哈

原帖由 lantern 于 18-2-2009 06:30 PM 发表
今天的很乱水下。。。
我被砍了。。。你们玩的怎么样啊？

polis001

SLEEPLESS IN DETROIT
    GM, the once giant US car company,  took the stage yesterday afternoon and asked for another 16 billion USD’S to keep their businesses afloat…The beleaguered executives had alluded to the fact that a Chapter 11 type of bankruptcy would cost a whole lot more (maybe 100 billion) than any additional funding…At this stage of the game, the American public has become almost numb to the B word (billion or bailout take your pick) but at what point will the bleeding stop? For the most part, the currency markets shrugged off the GM news and some of the  carry trades actually traded higher (92.82 USD/JPY)…However, an article in the UK telegraph citing that Great Britain may lose its AAA rating sent GBP/USD into a tailspin…After threatening to take out the key 1.4300-10 area,  GBP/USD imploded en route to a sub 1.41 print only to rebound since (1.4210)…..As you can see, the financial markets remain in a  confused and battered state with market conviction perhaps hitting an all time low …Furthermore, we expect the choppy  environment to again dominate the trading landscape and don’t see that changing anytime soon..US Housing Starts and Canadian Wholesale Prices at 8.30 am, US Industrial Production at 9.15 am and FOMC Minutes a t 2 pm so a full slate of data on tap..Also, Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks at 12.30 pm..Good Luck

FLOWS

·         Talk of option players bidding ahead of 1.2550 with stops right below..Macro names and Eastern European accounts said to be buying north of 1.26..Said to be stop losses in the 1.2655-80 region
·         Reports of reserve mangers selling around 92.80-85 with option related sellers ahead of 93.00 and system related type stop losses right above there
·         Supposed real money buyers of AUD/USD around .6335-40.Short term technical stops reported below .6330
·         Real money names allegedly sold GBP/USD on the rally to 1.4250….Corporate accounts said to be buying the dips
·         Canadian bank selling at 1.2600 pre data



FLAVOR OF THE DAY

·         55 hour moving average at 92.11
·         Overnight low was 92.08
·         Psychological support at 92.00
·         Reaction low was 91.91
·         Overnight high was 92.85



THE ONE TO WATCH

We think buying a USD/JPY dip near 92.10-91.90 with a 91.50 stop and 93.35 objective is a good idea if you think the key 92.80 area will eventually give way


Dave Leaver



汽车业巨擘通用公司昨日再度要求160亿元的挹注，该公司表示，这样的成本远比破产来得划算（可能达1000亿元）。然而，美国大众此时对于任何纾困的字眼早已充耳不闻，不过，这样的失血还得持续到何时？大体来说，汇市并不在意通用这项消息，因此套息交易货币反而走高（USDJPY上升至92.82）。不过，英国一外电报导，英国可能会丧失其AAA信评，导致GBPUSD应声下跌，从接近1.4300-10直线滑落至1.41，只是反弹的力道也很强（回升至1.4210）。可见，金融市场仍处于进退两难的局面，因此我们预期目前这种上下震荡的走势将还会持续一段时间。今晨8时30分有新屋开工与加拿大的趸售物价，9时15分有美国工业生产，下午2时有公开市场委员会的会议记录。此外，伯南克将于12时30分演说，祝好运。

汇市动向
¨      期权业者在1.2550之前买进，止损于下方不远处，基本面与东欧据说在1.26上方购入。1.2655-80有止损聚集。
¨      储备经理据说于92.80-85卖出，期权卖盘于93.00附近，系统止损位于上方不远处
¨      真实资金于0.6335-40买入AUDUSD，短线技术止损于0.6330下方
¨      真实资金据称于1.4250卖出GBPUSD，企业账户逢低买入
¨      加国银行于1.2600卖出

今日分析
¨      55小时均价为92.11
¨      隔夜低点92.08
¨      心理关键支撑为92.00
¨      回调低位91.91
¨      隔夜高点92.85

关注焦点
如果你认为92.80终究会失守的话，可于92.10-91.90买入USDJPY，止损于91.50,目标93.35。

polis001

From: Dave Leaver
Sent: Thursday, February 19, 2009 8:24 AM
Subject: WHEN IN TROUBLE, DOUBLE..

WHEN IN TROUBLE, DOUBLE
    The EUR/USD rebounded sharply overnight (along with the GBP/USD and AUD/USD) on an apparent “buy recommendation” from a US investment bank who thinks the economic turmoil in Europe has been overblown…In a nasty squeeze higher, EUR/USD raced from 1.2530 to 1.2722 while GBP/USD obliterated the key 1.4300-10 resistance en route to a 1.4416 high…..Meanwhile, AUD/USD (.6382- .6495) caught up to USD/JPY which for the most part remained sidelined  (93.30-93.75).. Talk about some instant gratification….It is only fair to mention, however,  that this same US investment house was previously bullish on the single European unit back in December when the pair was trading above 1.40….So if we do our math correctly, they’re long at more like an average than 1.34 than 1.25..Don’t get us wrong:  The immediate reaction to these type of market events is usually acute…But keep in mind, investment banks,  hedge funds and reserve managers STILL have much deeper pockets than most when it comes to trading in spite of the recent financial crisis…So do the trades that suit your portfolio and risk profile and don’t worry so much about what others are doing….The information can be useful but don’t “bet the ranch” on any one person’s beliefs…In conclusion, we expect 1.2725 (key broken old support) and 1.2765 to act as formidable resistance for the EUR bulls as we tackle a plethora of US data release (US Weekly Jobless Claims, PPI, Philly Fed)

FLOWS

·         Talk of US accounts and large hedge funds buying EUR/USD on 1.2600 break with real money sellers around 1.2750
·         Reports of option type sellers ahead of 94.00 with stops placed right above  and then more stops  at 94.55-90..Talk of buyers around 93.00-92.80..100 day ma and top of Ichimoku cloud around 93.90 has attracted a lot of technical trader’s interest
·         Supposed speculative accounts buying EUR/CHF through 1.4820 on rumors of how Swiss government will deal with banking laws…Longer term players buying short dated options to the topside
·         Retail names allegedly sold GBP/USD on the rally to 1.4400….System accounts said to have bought on stop losses on 1.4310 then 1.4350 break




FLAVOR OF THE DAY

·         55 hour moving average at 1.2595
·         200 hour moving average at 1.2796
·         Key broken old support at 1.2720
·         Reaction high at 1.2765
·         Psychological resistance at 1.2800



THE ONE TO WATCH

We think selling EUR/USD at 1.2765-90 with a 1.2830 stop and 1.2610 objective suits those who think the current rally is overdone

polis001

显然是受到美国某大投资银行的买入建议，EURUSD与GBPUSD、AUDUSD于隔夜劲涨。该银行表示，有关欧洲经济危机的言论过于耸听，结果是，一场空头回补大幅展开，EURUSD从1.2530上冲至1.2722，GBPUSD不假思索地上穿1.4300-10阻力，直奔1.4416。值此，AUDUSD也与USDJPY联袂上涨（0.6382-0.6495与93.30-93.75）。虽然这是快餐式的快感，然而，据悉该银行去年12月当欧元汇价仍保持在1.40时，也是疾呼欧元多头，所以，如果我们没有算错的话，该银行的平均进价将为1.34，而非1.25。不要弄错了，市场对于这种消息总是会有立即的反应，不过，投资银行与对冲资金与储备经理都是荷包满满，可以忍受暂时的波动，因此，交易者当选择适合自己的交易策略，不要随波逐流。小结：我们预期1.2725与1.2765仍将是短期间强大的阻力，尤其今晨仍有失业金申请人数与费城指数等重要数据将发布。

汇市动向
¨      美国账户与大型对冲基金于1.2600破位买入EURUSD，真实资金于1.2750卖出
¨      期权卖盘于94.00下方卖出，止损即于上方，据说更多止损聚集于94.55-90。买盘集中于93.00-92.80的百日均在线。93.90是许多技术交易者关注的价位。
¨      投资账户于1.4820买入EURCHF
¨      真实资金据称于1.4400卖出GBPUSD，系统账户于1.4310、1.4350止损行情买入
¨      加国银行于1.2600卖出

今日分析
¨      55小时均价为1.2595
¨      200日均价为1.2796
¨      旧支撑为1.2720
¨      回调高位1.2765
¨      隔夜低点92.08
¨      心理关键阻力为1.2800

关注焦点
如果你认为这波反弹太夸张了，可于1.2765-90放空EURUSD，止损于1.2830，目标1.2610。

lantern

原帖由 ocm11 于 19-2-2009 12:32 AM 发表
对今天有点乱水，先 UP 后 DOWN。。。。
不过还是过关。。。哈哈哈

大大，请问你玩什么timeframe？

qplldb

原帖由 ocm11 于 20-2-2009 10:10 PM 发表
废话少说，先送上这个星期的战绩。。。
希望大家可以学习。。。









...

期待ocm11兄再次的分享

让小弟学习学习

polis001

From: Dave Leaver
Sent: Mon 2/23/2009 9:21 AM
Subject: THE FED NEVER SLEEPS...



THE FED NEVER SLEEPS

    Speculation that the Fed would take another 40% stake in Citi Bank  (and not any more) led investors on a carry trade cover rampage as the ailing bank stocks finally recovered from their previously moribund levels..In an exciting overnight, EUR/USD tested the key psychological 1.3000 area before knifing back to 1.2805 while USD/JPY pierced the highly significant 94.50-65 region before pausing ahead of  95.00....In addition, GBP/USD rocketed from 1.4350 to 1.4660 and EUR/JPY rallied from 119.15 to 121.95....Surely, the overnight movements were dramatic and extensive but are they well founded?  From a fundamental standpoint, we really don't see all that good with the Fed buying stakes in the  beleaguered US banks since it almost qualifies as a borderline form of nationalization... But with regards to some of these bank's share prices, there may not be that much more room left to the downside..So as financial stocks bottom (or hit rock bottom) , some market participants may expect the carry trade to do much of the same....The move over 94.65 in USD/JPY was a big step forward for the carry trade but now look for Japanese exporters to be on the offer every 50 points to hedge their overseas risk...Just Canadian Retail Sales due out at 8.30 am today







FLOWS



·        Talk of option players selling ahead of 1.30 with reserve names buying around 1.2800

·        Reports of option type and Japanese exporter sellers ahead of 95.00 with model players buying on the 94.50 break..Talk of stops over 95.00

·        Real money accounts allegedly buying GBP/USD around 1.4500 with corporate sellers at 1.4660-75 then 1.4720

·        Alleged system accounts buying EUR/JPY on 120.50 break with corporate names selling around 121.80

·        Real Money names said to be selling AUD/USD in early Ny session









FLAVOR OF THE DAY



·        55 hour moving average at 93.83

·        100 day moving average at 93.70

·        100 hour moving average at 93.40

·        Overnight high was 94.92

·        Psychological resistance at 95.00







THE ONE TO WATCH



We think buying USD/JPY around 93.75-50 with a .9330 stop and .9530 objective makes sense if you like the carry trade to keep trading higher...If you like to sell into this rally, both 95.50 and 96.00 represent key  psychological and likely option barrier relayed ..Keep in mind, the medium term trend is still pointed higher

polis001

JAPANESE FIRE DRILL
    Typically, the term “Chinese fire drill” refers  to a chaotic situation so we felt it only appropriate to characterize the past few sessions in the currency markets as  a “Japanese fire drill”…Ever since last weeks’ anemic Industrial Production numbers,  the Japanese yen has been under enormous pressure against all of its G-10 counterparts but most notably against the USD where it had languished under 91.00 for what felt like an eternity……And  last night was no different as USD/JPY pierced through the key psychologically significant 95.00  level on its way to 95.89…In addition,  EUR/JPY raced from 119.40 to 122.75 and GBP/JPY rose from 136.25 to 139.55….The JPY selling may be quizzical to some and rightfully so given the iron clad relationship between the carry trade and equity markets  over the past few years (GBP/JPY and the S&P had over and 85% correlation rate last year)…But a MASSIVE divergence seems to be occurring between trends that were evident last year as compared to 2009….For example, the USD (and not AUD) is trading in tandem with Gold and the CAD seems to be ignoring the plight of Oil…When it’s all said and done,  we think the solution to the problem lies within the overwhelming demand for safe haven plays such as US Treasuries… And as long as that remains the case, we expect the JPY to weaken and USD to strengthen against a variety of currencies in the short run….Case Schiller at 9 am, Consumer Confidence at 10 am and Fed Chairman Bernanke also speaks between 10 and noon


FLOWS

·         Talk of model buyers and short term accounts buying through 1.2800….Corporate accounts on the offer in similar area
·         Reports of option type sellers ahead of 96.00 with stops right behind it (same as 94.00 and 95.00)…Semi official names, Asian accounts, leverage names, retail players (everyone under the sun) all seen buying overnight
·         Supposed IMM types selling USD/CHF in the 1.1550-35 region
·         Alleged system accounts buying EUR/JPY again on 121.50 and 122.00 breaks…Talk of more stops over 122.75


FLAVOR OF THE DAY

·         55 hour moving average at 1.2769
·         200 hour moving average at 1.2725
·         100 hour moving average at 1.2763
·         30 day moving average at 1.2923
·         Psychological resistance at 1.2850



THE ONE TO WATCH

We think selling EUR/USD on a rally to 1.2920-50 with a  1.2975 stop and 1.2765 limit suits if you think EUR/USD may squeeze higher and you want to sell strength


Dave Leaver



一般而言，中式演习意谓着混乱的景象，但在过去几天，以日式演习来形容汇市似乎更恰当。自从上周发布低迷的工业生产数据后，日圆对其他10大工业国货币明显走低，尤其是对美元，使得91.00的汇价似乎已成过往云烟。隔夜USDJPY突破95.00关键心理价位，直奔95.89。值此，EURJPY也从119.40上冲至122.75，GBPJPY从136.25劲升至139.55。对某些人来说，市场抛售日圆也许难以理解，毕竟在过去几年，套息交易与股市走势拥有超过85%的正相关性。然而，背离现象如今已再明显不过。例如，美元（不是澳币）现在与黄金亦步亦趋，加币似乎也无视于原油的跌势。我们认为这是避险心态在市场的显现，而且只要这种市场情绪存在，我们预期在短期间，日圆将继续对美元以及其它多数货币贬值。今日9时有房价指数报告，10时有消费信心，然后伯南克将于10时至中午在国会说明经济。

汇市动向
¨      技术与短线账户在1.2800之前买入，企业账户卖出
¨      期权于96.00之前卖出，止损即于上方(类似在94.00与95.00的作法)，其它所有人均于隔夜买入
¨      IMM类型账户于1.1550-35卖出USDCHF
¨      传闻系统账户在121.50与122.00破位买入EURJPY，据说更多止损位于122.75上方

今日分析
¨      55小时均价为1.2769
¨      200小时均价为1.2725
¨      100小时均价为1.2763
¨      30日均价为1.2923
¨      心理关键阻力为1.2850

关注焦点
如果你认为EURUSD可能再度飙高，可考虑逢高于1.2920-50卖出，目标1.2765，止损1.2975。

mancai

原帖由 polis001 于 24-2-2009 11:50 PM 发表
JAPANESE FIRE DRILL
    Typically, the term “Chinese fire drill” refers  to a chaotic situation so we felt it only appropriate to characterize the past few sessions in the currency markets as  a “ ...

這和EU有什麽關係？？

polis001

JPY END STREET
    As we approach month end where the currency flows tend to be enormous , it seems that the JPY bulls have reached a dead end as USD/JPY and EUR/JPY continue to defy gravity….In a subtle yet stealth manner, USD/JPY broke 98.00 while EUR/JPY made strides towards 126 in spite of the global equity markets remaining on edge in fierce anticipation of the details from President Obama concerning the Bailout package….Also, EUR/USD chopped around in a 1.2780-1.2810 range and GBP/USD did much of the same false breaking below 1.4175 only to squeeze back to 1.4350….So in a nutshell, the carry trade remains well bid with the help of some subprime casualty banks (Ubs, Rbs) posting  impressive gains in the overseas bourses and perhaps investors are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel….Its still way too early to tell but it looks like USD/JPY could give the 100 level a look a lot quicker than many folks had figured…US Durable Goods and  Initial Jobless Claims due out at 8.30 am

FLOWS

·         Talk of longer term macro accounts buying EUR/USD below 1.2700..Model type stop losses over 1.2830
·         Reports of barrier option at 98.50 with a 98.00 barrier being taken out in London and short term tech stops taken out at 98.10
·         Supposed corporate accounts selling USD/CAD on 1.2450 break
·         Alleged corporate accounts sold into 1.4600..Retail types bidding around 1.4360
·         Short term sellers filled at 1.4310-15 in GBP/USD and UK corporate accounts bought GBP/JPY
·         Talk of locals buying USD/CHF around 1.1600



FLAVOR OF THE DAY

·         55 hour moving average at 1.2781
·         200 hour moving average at 1.2710
·         1.2683 is the overnight low
·         1.2808 is the  overnight high




THE ONE TO WATCH

For a short term punt, we think selling the EUR/USD rally around 1.2865-80  with a 1.2900 stop and 1.2785 limit  limit works if you expect a series of false breaks to occur as we get into the month end madness


Dave Leaver




月底迫近，汇市波动经常剧烈，值此日圆多头似乎已经走道尽头，USDJPY与EURJPY则义无反顾地上涨。在平稳的行进中，USDJPY上破98.00，EURJPY也奔向126，尽管全球股市仍焦躁等待欧巴马有关纾困方案的内容。EURUSD隔夜于1.2780-1.2810的区间震荡，GBPUSD也有类似现象，在跌破1.4175之后，旋即回涨至1.4350。一言以敝之，在UBS与苏格兰等银行显著优于预期的财报助力下，套息交易大有斩获，似乎显示投资人已看到初露的曙光。虽然这一切仍言之过早，USDJPY的确有上涨至100的迹象。今日数据有耐久财与失业金申请人数。

汇市动向
¨      基本面长期账户于1.2700下方买入EURUSD，技术账户止损于1.2830上方
¨      期权阻力位于98.50，98.00已于伦敦盘失守，98.10的短线技术止损也是
¨      传闻企业账户于1.450破位卖出USDCAD
¨      短线GBPUSD卖盘于1.4310-15成交，英国企业账户买入GBPJPY
¨      传闻当地账户于1.1600买入USDCHF

今日分析
¨      55小时均价为1.2781
¨      200小时均价为1.2710
¨      1.2683为隔夜低点
¨      1.2808为隔夜高点

关注焦点
对于炒短线的交易者而言，如果你认为月底的疯狂行情会再度产生许多假突破，可考虑于1.2865-80卖出EURUSD，止损于1.2900，目标1.2785。

ocm11

又一个月过去了。。。 首先 upload 我的战绩，让大家学习。。。

仙劍

怎麽這裡變成show statement的帖了？
不是討論EURUSD的走勢？

mancai

今晚很多數據公佈，我還是下場了
剛才shoot一下，我的tp竟然沒有close trade，趕快按close，結果忽然反彈才tp 1 pips

polis001

From: Anthony Piccolo
Sent: 2009/3/2 [星期一] 上午 08:45
Subject: BEARS CONTINUE TO ROAR



BEARS CONTINUE TO ROAR



     Equity markets continue to plummet as the bears roar entering  the last month of Q1 2009.Around the world we saw equities move significantly lower. Asia saw declines of about 4%,Europe is down between 3 and 4%, and U.S. futures are down about 2.5%. Wall Street's concerns about how governments around the world will fix the financial systems and global economy have sent stocks to their lowest levels in 12 years. The Dow Jones industrial average has dropped for six consecutive months, and is worth less than half of its October 2007 record high of 14,164.53.AIG’s announcement it lost $61.7 billion in the fourth quarter of last year, the biggest quarterly loss in U.S. corporate history adds to the turmoil in the financial markets. The US dollar remains the main beneficiary of the increased risk aversion we see throughout the market. Yen crosses are lower as are the commodities currencies(Aud,Nzd,Cad).We have seen fresh Usd buying this morning especially against the Eur and the Gbp. Weak data overnight has helped bring about more interest to sell the Gbp. With equity markets hitting levels not seen in quite some time, hedge fund redemptions become increasingly possible, propelling the markets lower into the abyss.





FLOWS



·        Yen crosses sold aggressively in London

·        Early selling of Eur/usd by leveraged names has been met with demand from corporates

·        Eur/usd flows look rangy(interest on both sides)

·        Gbp/usd trades choppy as it moved down 150 points , then up 100 in the last 2 hours







FLAVOR OF THE DAY



·        Equity markets melt around the world

·        Risk aversion still in play

·        Usd gains on the risk aversion play

·        AIG’s reported loss weighs on markets







ONE TO WATCH



Selling a rally in Eur/usd could  be a play. Shorting into the 1.2640-60 area, stopping above 1.2700,and targeting 1.2605 and 1.2555 could be a thought.