股市要调整了

tanhy

来了，不出所料
Bank of America raises $13.5B following stress test



Bank of America Corp., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, raised about $13.5 billion in a sale of common stock after U.S. regulators determined it needed more cash to weather an extended recession.
The bank issued 1.25 billion shares at an average price of $10.77 each, according to a statement Tuesday. The Charlotte, N.C.-based company plans to boost common equity capital by $17 billion through the sale of stock and by converting preferred shares mostly held by institutional investors, Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis said May 7.
Lewis, told by regulators he needs to raise $33.9 billion after stress tests, seized on a 40 percent jump in Bank of America stock in the past month to raise capital. Other banks ordered to strengthen finances include Wells Fargo & Co., which made an $8.6 billion offering, and Morgan Stanley, which raised $4 billion, both on May 8.
“You have to do it while things have improved and you’re really running the gauntlet if you don’t,” said Tim Schroeders, who helps manage $1 billion at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “If there’s a double dip in the economy and you’ve been twiddling your thumbs, shareholders would be baying for blood.”
Bank of America declined 48 cents, or 4.1 percent, to $11.25 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. It has more than tripled since slumping to a 25-year low on March 6.



[ 本帖最后由 tanhy 于 21-5-2009 10:15 PM 编辑 ]

Gnoit

很感谢lz 的分享，小弟受教了。lz 应该在国际区开贴， 新区人太少了。。
lz 100% cash?

美国还没触低， lz 认为美国的低会是几点呢？

Gnoit

卡 ...............

Gnoit

破卡！！！！！！！！！1:@ :@ :@

tanhy

Fed Officials Unconvinced Economy’s ‘Stabilization’ to Persist


May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials, who see possible signs of “stabilization” in the U.S. economy, signaled they’re not convinced those improvements will persist.






Greenspan Says Banks Still Have a ‘Large’ Capital Requirement



By Alison Fitzgerald


May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Alan%0AGreenspan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Alan Greenspan[/url] signaled that the financial crisis has yet to end even as borrowing costs tumble, warning that U.S. banks must raise “large” amounts of money.

World markets hit by Fed's US growth warningWorld stock markets hit by Fed's US growth outlook; British stocks down on S& debt warning

Fed转口风了
钱已经到手，猴子戏就要下画
股市很可能顶不到6月8号就爆了

股市随时随地都会大跌

snowbreeze

支持...支持..... 一直在追看这贴,谢谢分享

tanhy

原帖由 Gnoit 于 20-5-2009 09:12 PM 发表 很感谢lz 的分享，小弟受教了。lz 应该在国际区开贴， 新区人太少了。。 lz 100% cash? 美国还没触低， lz 认为美国的低会是几点呢？

以前投机的票被套牢了（马股），自从改行投资后就不曾进货
我没法预测低点在那里，熊市陷阱的定义是一次比一次更低

tanhy

GM's future rests with bondholders after UAW dealGeneral Motors reaches deal with United Auto Workers, but bankruptcy still looms over company

• Tom Krisher, AP Auto Writer
• On Thursday May 21, 2009, 6:33 pm EDT

• Buzz up! 
• Print

Related:

• Ford Motor Co.
• , General Motors Corporation

[size=1em]DETROIT (AP) -- The United Auto Workers struck a deal with General Motors and the federal government Thursday to cut labor costs, close factories and change the way retiree health care is funded.
Related Quotes
SymbolPriceChangeF5.33-0.08

GM1.92+0.47

[size=1em]The agreement could ease one of GM's biggest problems: The cost of its work force. But the automaker is still struggling with a crushing debt that may drive it into a Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization.
[size=1em]The deal is "the best news for everybody involved," said Harlan Platt, a professor at Northeastern University in Boston who teaches corporate turnarounds.
[size=1em]"This is great for the workers because some of their jobs will be there in the future. This is great news for the Obama administration because they've demonstrated they're respecting contracts."
[size=1em]美国政府是不会让GM倒的，不管是政治还是面子问题
[size=1em]Chrysler的倒闭是个意外，意外是不会每天发生的

[size=1em]希望GM获救后，股市会弹个1-2天，到时就要出手了





[ 本帖最后由 tanhy 于 22-5-2009 07:29 AM 编辑 ]

tanhy

Florida bank collapses - firms swoop in$13 billion BankUnited closed in biggest failure of year. Florida thrift bought by Wilbur Ross, Carlyle Investment, Blackstone Capital and other private firms.
来了, 相信很多没有政府帮忙骗钱的中小银行会排队破产就连California都有破产的可能，你说问题有多严重？

tanhy

The incredible shrinking dollarThe greenback has weakened as stocks have rallied on economic recovery hopes. But there are pros and cons to the dollar's decline.It's an interesting phenomenon that, at first blush, might not make sense. The stronger the rally in stocks and the more that people talk about a potential end to the recession, the more ground the dollar...loses against other currencies?
不认同，美元之前不跌是因为印钞机刚开动，Fed担心市场抛售会打击信心，结果进场护持1.2Trillion并不是马上就印出来，所以消息一出来美元跌了5%,要拉回去并不难如果美元一开始就大跌，这场猴子戏就上演不成现在戏下画了，美元可以安心跌了

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 21-5-2009 08:10 PM 发表
Fed Officials Unconvinced Economy’s ‘Stabilization’ to Persist


May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials, who see possible signs of “stabilization” in the U.S. economy, signaled they’ ...

有同感, 口风都不一样了.

STD & POOL 昨天做了先鋒.PIMCO也開始讲BIRD 話了.

[ 本帖最后由 alpinev18 于 22-5-2009 09:35 AM 编辑 ]

alpinev18

原帖由 Gnoit 于 20-5-2009 09:12 PM 发表
很感谢lz 的分享，小弟受教了。lz 应该在国际区开贴， 新区人太少了。。
lz 100% cash?

美国还没触低， lz 认为美国的低会是几点呢？

我SET 在6500點, 你覚得呢?

alpinev18

（美國‧華盛頓）4月生產價格指數（PPI）上揚，顯示經濟衰退可能已經觸底，但美國首次申請失業救濟金人數超出預期，卻反映失業情況可能還會進一步惡化。
美國勞工部公佈，4月PPI增加0.3%，超出預期，3月為下滑1.2%。核心物價上漲0.1%，符合預期。
Moody’s Economy.com資深經濟師薛德（Ryan Sweet）在報告出爐前表示，一旦經濟開始復甦，通膨風險將更明顯。
分析師原本預期，4月PPI將上揚0.2%。
不過，美國4月核心PPI（不計食物和能源價格）僅較前月增長0.1%，反映出企業已因景氣衰退喪失大部份訂價能力。
這波景氣衰退促使美國企業持續削減存貨，導致訂單金額和工業生產下探，加上消費者支出一直維持疲弱，今年4月零售額就較前月縮減0.4%，在如此氣氛下，企業要調漲製成品價格是很難的。
另一份報告顯示，上週初次申請失業救濟金人數超出預期。
至5月9日止的當週，初次申請失業救濟金人數增加3萬2000，至63萬7000人，超越分析師原先預估的1萬人。前一週經修正為60萬5000人。
與克萊斯勒（Chrysler）破產相關的車廠停擺關廠，是上週首度請領失業救濟金人數超過預期主因，同時也結束在上週之前連續兩週增長減緩的趨勢。

alpinev18

假面的牛市

• 財經評論

2009-05-21 10:52
從去年蔓延開來的金融危機，導致全球經濟陷入衰退困境，股票市場更狂瀉，導致每一處都瀰漫著“熊氣”，煞氣衝天還真難受。
雖然日子苦兮兮，不過值得安慰的是，最近發佈的經濟數據，包括全球出口、製造業等都持續獲得改善。儘管A型流感插一只腳進來嘗試搞亂市場，不過股市仍越攀越高，闖過了一關又一關，大幅回揚幅度驚人，市場人士紛紛解讀為“熊市反彈”。
這種現象尤指長期不景氣的“跌市”基調中顯現曙光，股市在短時間內暫時上升，也是曇花一現的短暫“牛市”，而在長期的蕭條中，更可能多次出現，然後又消失掉，其“現身”的週期並不長，或許只是初期的“甜頭”。
為此，大家都擔心這股“牛市”會否來去匆匆，或將常駐在這兒呢？沒有人知道。不過，從經濟增長與失業率仍然慘淡這方面看來，何時見底真的還說不准。整個經濟走勢都充斥著不明朗的因素，雖然股市是宏觀經濟的晴雨表，不過“經濟復甦”這個名詞似乎仍不適宜套在目前的經濟情況上，路上或還藏著各式各樣的陷阱，只要一個不小心踩錯腳，你就惹上麻煩了！
長期處於膨脹狀態的氣球也須“洩一洩氣”，股市的原理不外是如此，勇往直前之際不忘停歇下來順一口氣，所以馬股如果又往下調整並不足為奇。
專家說，熊市的條件是：債務水平仍相當高，全球經濟仍在萎縮，而事實告訴我們，經濟危機的導火線－－美國的債務水平並沒有減低。
至於真正步入牛市的條件則是：市場已經“跌無可跌”，經濟正在復甦或將要復甦。想一想，我們的後市符合這個條件嗎？

alpinev18

（新加坡）新加坡政府今日（週四，5月21日）公佈，第一季國內生產總值（GDP）下滑幅度較預期緩和，意味經濟衰退的高峰可能已過。
數據顯示，經年率與季節調整後，新加坡第一季GDP較前季萎縮14.6%，優於4月預估的下滑19.7%。與去年同期相比，GDP下降10.1%，早先預估為11.5%。
今年GDP預估下滑6至9%
同時，新加坡政府維持今年GDP展望，預估下滑6至9%，恐創1965年獨立以來之最。新加坡貿易暨工業部指出，目前未出現任何決定性的經濟復甦訊號，但可能已經觸底。
通膨展望方面，今年年增率預計介於0至-1%。
下半年經濟或緩和復甦
貿易暨工業部第二常任秘書孟文能（Ravi Menon）於簡報時表示：“國內經濟已出現觸底的正面跡象，但反彈時間還不明朗。”
他表示，較佳的預測是，新加坡經濟將於下半年緩和復甦，則今年GDP將下滑近6%；但若持續在底部遊走，下滑幅度可能逼近9%。
二次大戰以來最嚴重的經濟衰退導致新加坡出口重挫。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）預估，今年新加坡經濟可能在亞洲當中敬陪末座。
華僑銀行公債研究主管Selena Ling說：“上一季經濟可能已經到了谷底，可是要初露新芽的復甦題材還要等上好一段時間。”

什麼叫做比预期的好. 萎縮就是萎縮. 倒不如预期-20%, 現在只-10.1% 那不是很美了嗎?

tanhy

Geithner Skeptical of Calif. BailoutBy Brady Dennis
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, May 22, 2009


California, the country's most populous and cash-strapped state, is looking for a lifeline. But after bailing out banks, insurers and automakers, will the federal government provide it?
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner didn't rule out the possibility yesterday, though he sounded less than enthusiastic about the prospect.

Arnold 加油
不过美国人花惯了，个个都想“印多点钱就可以，省什么？"
最多不是把Hollywood卖给中国人？

alpinev18

（美國‧紐約）前聯儲局主席格林斯潘指出，雖然借貸成本大幅下降，但金融危機尚未結束，並提醒美國的銀行業者得“大舉”增資。
格林斯潘今日（週四，5月21日）接受訪問時表示：“美國的商業銀行體系仍有極大的資本需求，勢必得設法籌措資金。在房價止跌回穩前，我們仍可能面臨非常嚴重的房貸危機。”
格林斯潘的發言顯示，他認為，銀行的資本缺口比主管當局金檢所反映的更大。財政部長蓋特納週三（5月20日）表示，在金檢發現10家銀行得增資750億美元以來，各銀行已發行新股票或債券逾560億美元。
銀行資本不足，恐壓制對消費者及企業的放款，阻礙經濟復甦。2006年離開聯儲局的格林斯潘表示，房價續跌將陷數以百萬計的房貸戶在風險之中。
格林斯潘在眾議院一場會議前表示：“我們處在危機邊緣，如果此事無法迅速解決，我會擔心。”
他表示，只有在獨戶式住宅的“清盤率”觸頂，房價才會開始走穩。

看來, 还要继续讨錢呢.

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 22-5-2009 11:53 AM 发表
Geithner Skeptical of Calif. Bailout


By Brady Dennis
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, May 22, 2009


California, the country's most populous and cash-strapped state, is looking for a l ...

The Next Big Bailout? California's Dream Becomes Our National NightmarePosted May 21, 2009 05:14pm EDT by Aaron Task Related: ^DJI, ^GSPC, BAC, C, AIG, IIC, NCO

all the leaves are brown
and the sky is grey
I've been for a walk
on a winter's day
I'd be safe and warm
if I was in L.A
California Dreamin'
on such a winter's day
After voters rejected propositions designed close a looming budget shortfall of $21 billion, California's dream has become our national nightmare.
Given the state's economic size, huge population and Electoral College importance, most observers believe some kind of federal bailout will soon be forthcoming.
California's referendum process is "dysfunctional" and the state is now paying a heavy price for the "split personality view" that you can maintain service without the tax revenues to pay for it, says University of Texas professor James Galbraith.
While very critical of the state, "the barn door is already opened on rewarding bad behavior," Galbraith says. "And you can't begin to compare the behavior of states and banks."
The economist and author declined to predict whether the government will bail out California, but notes $21 billion is a lot less than has been pledged to Bank of America, Citigroup, AIG, or myriad other financial firms. Even a federal guarantee of the roughly $2.8 trillion of U.S. muni debt outstanding would be but a fraction of the total cost of the financial sector's bailouts to date.
Regardless of what form, if any, a bailout of California (or other states) takes, Galbraith believes aid to states is an important "stabilizing factor" in the current environment, citing the "vital public services" they provide as well as related jobs. Had more been done at the beginning of the crisis to support the states (vs. the banks) it would have had a "substantial mitigating effect on the massive loss of jobs," he argues.

http://finance.yahoo.com/techticker/article/252585/The-Next-Big-Bailout-California's-Dream-Becomes-Our-National-Nightmare;_ylt=AhG.Up22XvHZMlfWj4.fc7DyKIkA

tanhy

GM bondholders dig in, gird for bankruptcySat May 23, 2009 1:39am EDT
 

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By Walden Siew


NEW YORK (Reuters) - General Motors Corp's bondholders on Friday said they remained opposed to the company's proposed bond exchange, a position which threatens to send GM into bankruptcy soon, while the Obama administration said it would not extend talks.

A day after the automaker reached a preliminary restructuring deal with unions, GM's biggest bondholders, with some $27 billion in unsecured debt, still intend to reject GM's offer for a 10 percent equity stake, a spokesman for the creditors said.

Bondholders last month pushed for a 58 percent stake in GM, which President Obama's Auto Task Force has signaled is unrealistic.

"It's been a universal no from the get-go," said Nevin Reilly, a spokesman for the creditors' committee. "Bondholders are being seen as speculative bad guys, but bondholders are investors, many of whom put their retirement money into GM."

The big bondholders have no formal relationship with smaller retail GM investors, but Reilly said they have received many calls seeking to coordinate a response.

"You know the bondholders are going to have to take some haircut," Austan Goolsbee, a member of the Obama administration's auto task force, told Reuters Television on Friday. "Everybody has got to put some skin in the game."

Bondholder 死不肯认赔，Obama还不跳出来骂他们？
老实说我会支持他们，有什么理由为了政治目的给UAW这么多，给他们这么少？这完全违反了经济自由
怪不得前GE的CEO Jack Welch跳出来鸟Obama，Jack Welch说要就给房市狠狠地跌到底，拖拖拉拉，复苏就更慢
我也是这么想，长痛不如短痛，凡事都逃不出因果
不过我还是买Obama政府不会让GM倒

tanhy

最近隔壁很热闹，有股友开贴劝投机份子收手以免晚节不保不过该贴的哲学味太重，一般的投机份子恐怕不会理解，结果惹来骂战
其实何必呢？试想，你有没有可能叫那些在云顶尝到甜头的赌徒收手？
对我来说，人一定要吃了大亏才会反省，所以没必要劝他们
反正我看CARI的人大部分都很年轻，输得起，没问题！