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发表于 6-2-2009 11:32 PM
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发表于 7-2-2009 12:06 AM
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发表于 7-2-2009 12:36 AM
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yalar share yr system pls |
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发表于 7-2-2009 12:26 PM
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发表于 7-2-2009 11:59 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 17-2-2009 11:08 PM
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RED LIGHT, GREEN LIGHT
The dollar soared overnight and global equity markets crumbled as investors continued to pour into safe haven vehicles such as the US dollar and Swiss franc instead of riskier assets (i.e. stocks, carry trade)…In a lightning quick move that began in the Asian session, EUR/USD disappeared through the key 1.2720 support en route to a 1.2602 low while USD/JPY tested the air over 92.50 (92.75 high) but couldn’t hold….Meanwhile, EUR/CHF skidded lower (1.4865 to 1.4769) exemplifying yet another sign that traders are still very uncomfortable with putting risk back on the table ahead of the key status reports due out later on this afternoon from GM and Chrysler …In addition, yesterday’s anemic Japanese GDP Report did nothing to help the market’s already badly bruised psyche and in fact only solidified the notion that the “decoupling” aspect of the financial crisis is no longer applicable…..So now with the 1.2600 barrier in EUR/USD staring at us straight in the eyes and the US Empire Manufacturing and TIC data due out at 8.30 and 9 am respectively, the currency world braces itself for what could be the unfolding of a significant USD rally over the next few days…..In summary, as long as stocks stay red we expect the dollar to remain green
FLOWS
· Talk of option players bidding ahead 1.2600 with stops right below ..System stops triggered overnight on the 1.2720-00 break
· Reports of technical accounts buying over 92.50 with Japanese exporters still seen on the offer the whole way up (92.10-75)
· Supposed momentum types watching 46.45 in NZD/JPY closely with a quick move to 45.70 in the cards if we break
· Far East accounts said to selling out of AUD/JPY longs overnight
FLAVOR OF THE DAY
· 200 hour moving average at 1.2768
· 30 hour moving average at 1.2720
· Psychological support/pivot at 1.2600
· Broken old support at 1.2720-05
· 1.2550 next important support candidate
THE ONE TO WATCH
We think selling EUR/USD into 1.2700-20 with a 1.2765 stop and 1.2565 take profit suits in the current downtrend environment..A Ny close below 1.2720 will solidify that downtrend and target 1.2320 over the next few days
Dave Leaver
投资人隔夜持续将资产转往美元以及瑞郎等避险货币，导致美元飙升，股市与日圆货币对则剧跌。从亚市开盘后，EURUSD在1.2720的支撑瞬间消失，直接跌至1.2602，USDJPY测试了92.50，最高达92.75，不过未能坚持住。值此，EURCHF 从1.4865跌至1.4769，显示交易者还是不放心把资金放在风险投资上，尤其是在今日下午当通用与克赖斯勒发布报告前。此外，昨日日本发布的GDP报告低迷，更进一步打压市场的心理，也显示全球经济都无法自外于这波金融危机的冲击。因此，1.2600乃是目前EURUSD的关键价位，交易者得关注今日8点半的纽约州制造业数据以及9点钟的资本流动数据，看看这波美元升势将于未来几天如何继续演进。简单来说，只要股市继续失血，美元就会继续上升。
汇市动向
¨ 期权业者在1.2600之前买进，止损于下方不远处，系统业止损在隔夜于1.2720/00破位时触及
¨ 技术账户于92.50破位买入，但是日本外销业持续于92.10-75之间卖出
¨ 技术型资金密切关注NZDJPY在46.45附近的变化，一旦破位，45.70将近在呎呎
¨ 远东账户隔夜卖出AUDJPY
今日分析
¨ 200小时均价为1.2768
¨ 30小时均价为1.2720
¨ 心理关键支撑为1.2600
¨ 破位旧支撑为1.2720/05
¨ 1.2550为下一步重要支撑
关注焦点
我们认为可于1.2700-20放空EURUSD，止损于1.2765，目标1.2565，这样的策略是顺着目前的下跌趋势。纽约盘如果收在1.2720之下，目前的跌势将更明显，可望于未来数日测试1.2320。 |
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发表于 17-2-2009 12:19 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 9-2-2009 11:56 PM
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From: Dave Leaver
Sent: Monday, February 09, 2009 8:32 AM
Subject: HEARTBREAKER...
HEARTBREAKER
As we cruise into Valentine’s Day week here in the States (it’s this coming Saturday for all you romantics out there), it seemed somewhat inappropriate that the hearts of many USD/JPY longs were broken on the false break over 92.25…. In a relatively subdued session, USD/JPY cleared out the key 92.25 barrier only to rally a meager 15 additional points before knifing back to 90.90 while EUR/USD tested its 21 day moving average (1.3031) and once again held 1.2865 (post NFP low)....In other action, GBP/USD rose from 1.4705 to 1.4975 and GBP/JPY, the bellwether of the carry trade, roared from 133.60 to 137.30….Surely, Japanese exporters are trying to take advantage of this recent spike lower in JPY to hedge some of their overseas exposure and keep selling the rallies in the JPY based pairs…Keep in mind, every time USD/JPY moves a 100 points lower a Japanese corporate (usually a car company) loses approximately 30 million dollars…On the other hand, some of the macroeconomic folks are starting to think the worst may be over with regards to the swooning equity markets and sub prime crisis… Consequently, this type of trading community have begun to “put risk back on ” which usually equates to a higher carry trade or lower Japanese yen …So in a nutshell, it looks like a battle royale between the Japanese exporting sector and the bullish carry trade macro accounts is underway…Just Canadian Housing Starts due out today at 8.15 am and the big Geithner testimony before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow
FLOWS
· Talk of macro accounts buying EUR/USD around 1.2900 and short term technical accounts stopping out over 1.30
· Supposed real money buyers of USD/JPY below 91.00 and exporters said to have sold at 92.25-50
· Allegedly exporters sold EUR/GBP through .8700-05 with .8665 being the next key technical support
· Reports of system stop loss selling in USD/CHF from 1.1585-50
FLAVOR OF THE DAY
· 55 hour moving average at 1.2867
· 200 hour moving average at 1.2910
· 1.3106 reaction high
· 21 day moving average at 1.3030
THE ONE TO WATCH
We think there are take profit type accounts “waiting in the wings” in EUR/USD so we think a stealth sale around 1.3600-10 with a 1.3635 stop loss and 1.3035 take profit seems reasonable
Dave Leaver |
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发表于 10-2-2009 12:28 PM
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这个星期六是美国的情人节，但那些在做多美元/日圆的交易者似乎因为92.25水平的假性突破而心碎。在一个较淡的市场，美元/日圆突破92.25关卡但只朝上多涨了15点后就跌回90.90，欧元/美元则试探21日移动平均水平（1.3031）然后1.2865低位持续支撑（非农后低位）。英镑/美元从1.4705涨至1.4975，然后套息货币的领导者英镑/日圆从133.60涨至137.30。日本出口商也趁日圆近期的贬值去对冲一些海外风险并持续做空日圆相关货币的涨势。切记，每当美元/日圆往下走低100点，一间日本公司（一般为汽车公司）会损失3000万美金。宏观经济面交易者开始认为关于股市的不稳定及次级房贷风暴这些最坏的情况可能结束了。因此，这些交易者开始将风险加入到他们的交易中，做多套息货币或看跌日圆。所以整体来说，这看样子会是一场介于日本出口商以及看好牛市的套息交易者之间的战争。接下来的焦点则是加拿大的房屋销售数据以及明天美国财政部长盖特纳的重要演说。
汇市动向
v 据说欧元/美元在1.2900附近有大型买家，而短线技术型交易者则在1.30以上止损
v 一些听说有实力的买家在美元/日元91.00以下买进，出口商则听说在92.25-50卖出
v 据报出口商一路卖出欧元/英镑至0.8700-05，0.8665则是下一个的技术支撑
v 听说系统性交易在美元/瑞郎为1.1585-50时出现止损
今日分析
v 55小时均线在1.2867
v 200小时均线在1.2910
v 1.3106为高点
v 21天均线在1.3030
关注焦点
我们认为有许多欧元/美元保护利润型的账户在等待机会，所以我们认为一个1.3600-10的卖出，以及1.3635止损和1.3035的止赢应该合理。 |
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发表于 10-2-2009 03:14 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 10-2-2009 03:40 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 10-2-2009 10:54 PM
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DAY OF RECKONING
So here we are with the newly appointed Treasury Secretary Geithner scheduled to speak on the world’s stage in just a few hours about the new stimulus package and hopefully providing some specific details….In the meantime, rumors of Russia “restructuring” its debt surfaced overnight and the EUR got hammered only to recover once the accusations were denied…..In a breathtaking overnight, EUR/USD swooned to 1.2812 (down from 1.3092 in the Ny afternoon) but squeezed back to 1.2980 for the 7 am London fix…In addition, EUR/JPY knifed down to 116.65 before it catapulted back to 118.49 and USD/JPY tested but held the key 90.80 level……And the Geithner testimony is still yet to come this morning at 11 am…My oh my….Surely, all of the financial world will be on edge come later on but if the market likes what the Treasury Secretary has to say you can count on the carry trade being bought up in an aggressive manner…..With regards to the Russian situation, things get a little bit more complicated…..But keep in mind, European banks typically have MUCH more exposure to the Russian economy than the US banks so if Russia does ever happen to default or “restructure” its debt you can look for the EUR to get annihilated..We will have all hands on deck today and expect things to stay pretty wild for the entire Ny session..Other than the Geithner testimony, the economic calendar is light
FLOWS
· Talk of Middle Eastern accounts and reserve managers buying EUR on the 1.28 handle..Prop and spec account all stopped out on 1.2970-50 break overnight…Talk of fresh stops over 1.3030
· Supposed importer buying interest at 90.80-75 with Japanese banks said to be seen selling around 92.45-50
· Allegedly European corporate demand for EUR/GBP for the 7 am London fix
· Reports of small GBP buyers around 1.4770-50 and option related sellers at 1.4975-1.50
FLAVOR OF THE DAY
· 55 day moving average at 91.20
· 30 day moving average at 90.40
· 55 hour moving average at 91.50
· London low was 90.82
THE ONE TO WATCH
We think USD/JPY should experience some severe movements come testimony time…With that in mind, we would think a sale in the 91.25-50 region is prudent with a 92.10 stop loss and 89.65 objective…Watch 90.40-30 on a closing basis for further clue
Dave Leaver
再过几个小时，美国新任财长将公布最新的经济振兴方案，希望他能提供一些具体细节。值此，俄国传来重整债务的消息，导致欧元隔夜惨遭杀戮，不过，一旦谣言受到否认，市场又悉数返回原先价位，让人叹为观止。在此戏剧变化中，EURUSD一度跌至1.2812(纽约盘高点为1.3092)，不过在今晨7时伦敦定价前，又回到1.2980；EURJPY也一度跌至116.65，然后急速回升至118.49，USDJPY在90.80获得支撑。财长盖特纳将于11时上台，如果他的计划获得赞同，可以预期的是，套息货币对将大获激励。在俄国方面，这事有点棘手，鉴于欧洲银行是俄国最大贷款来源，如果俄国真得重整或倒帐帐务，欧元势将再度受到阻击。我们预期今日又将是个疯狂的一天，除了盖特纳的证词之外，今日纽约盘没有什么重大数据公布。
汇市动向
¨ 东欧与储备经理在1.28买入欧元，专业与投机账户在1.2970-50破位被止损出局，传言1.3030上方聚集止损。
¨ 进口商于90.80-75买入USDJPY，日本银行在92.45-50卖出
¨ 据称欧洲企业在今晨7时前买入EURGBP
¨ 英镑于1.4770-50有小量买家，期权相关卖盘聚集于1.4975-1.50附近
今日分析
¨ 55日均价为91.20
¨ 30日均线位于90.40
¨ 55小时均价为91.50
¨ 伦敦低位为90.82
关注焦点
我们认为USDJPY在财长上台时机将有巨幅行情，我们认为可于91.25-50卖出，止损于92.10，目标为89.65。从收盘角度而言，必需关注90.40-30附近的变化。 |
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发表于 11-2-2009 04:41 PM
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Eur/Usd 在上涨。。。1.2960， 相信不久会回调。 |
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发表于 11-2-2009 05:17 PM
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原帖由 f_16 于 11-2-2009 04:41 PM 发表 
Eur/Usd 在上涨。。。1.2960， 相信不久会回调。
我的阻力在1.2982。。。现在正回调当中。。。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 12-2-2009 12:45 AM
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QUANTITATIVE PAIN
With the carry trade and world’s equity markets left in tatters post Treasury Secretary Geithner’s testimony , the dust finally began to settle only to be kicked up once again this time courtesy of the UK Inflation Report…In spellbinding fashion, GBP/USD tanked from 1.4555 area to 1.4355 while EUR/GBP almost inexplicably rose from .8900 to .9020 both moves occurring in less than 30 minutes…In addition, GBP/JPY plummeted from 131.05 to 128.85 as traders were left to ponder just what in the world led this cross to trade above 136 just a day ago? (136.25 yesterday’s London high)…..Undoubtedly, comments from BoE Governor King that all but assured some form of quantitative easing from the central bank had most to do with the GBP bashing….But also keep in mind, the market’s psychology has been fractured with fear and anxiety being the two main drivers of just about every market movement….Consequently, we don’t expect any “straight shot” moves over the next few days but instead look for the “chopfest” to continue…..As far as data goes, we have US Trade Balance and Home Sales due out at 8.30 am along with Canadian Trade Balance …Also, Treasury Secretary Geithner speaks again this time at 10 am in front of the US Senate and Oil inventories come out at 10.30…In summary, we expect another riveting trading session
FLOWS
· Talk of semi official name buying EUR/USD around 1.2940 with system stops over 1.3035-50
· Reports of leveraged accounts selling GBP/USD with retail types bottom fishing around 1.4350…Macro accounts buying large EUR/GBP
· Momentum accounts said to have sold on the 90.10 break with option names buying ahead of 89.50
· Reports of system stop losses over 1.2490 in USD/CAD (taken out post data)
FLAVOR OF THE DAY
· 200 hour moving average at 90.28
· 30 day moving average at 90.37
· 55 hour moving average at 90.95
· Overnight high was 90.57
THE ONE TO WATCH
We think USD/JPY might consolidate over the next 48 hours so expect 89.30-90.90 to confine the trading range….With that in mind, we would buy USD/JPY on a new low and use a tight stop (i.e. 30 point stop) since there IS a risk of a steeper move lower given the struggling stock market…So buying around 89.30 with a 89.00 stop and 90.35 objective makes sense to us
Dave Leaver
市场期待的新版经济振兴方案于昨日公布后， 套息交易与全球股市一片惨跌，好不容易市场终于尘埃落定了，英国通膨报告再度引发市场令一波抛售，GBPUSD从1.4555大跌至1.4355，EURGBP则毫不犹豫的由0.8900上冲至0.9020，两者都在30分钟内定案。此外，正当全球交易员都还在纳闷为何GBPJPY可于日昨飙升至136的时候，该货币对便从131.05剧跌至128.85。无疑的，英国央行主席金恩有关量化宽松货币政策的言论，是导致英镑受到阻击的元凶，不过，我们也得知道，市场心理近日夹杂在恐惧与焦躁之间，所以，我们并不预期未来几日的市场会出现方向性的走势。在数据方面，今晨8时30分有美国贸易赤字与加国贸易数据，10时30分有原油库存报告。此外，财长将于10时再次于参院进行听证说明。总结来说，今天仍将是个震荡的一天。
汇市动向
¨ 半官方账户于1.2940附近买入EURUSD，据说1.3035-50有止损聚集
¨ 保证金账户大卖GBPUSD，零售型账户于1.4350逢低买入，基本面业者大量购入EURGBP
¨ 势头账户于90.10破位卖出USDJPY，期权业于89.50上方买入
¨ 据报系统业者于USDCAD上破1.2490时止损出局
今日分析
¨ 200小时均价为90.28
¨ 30日均线位于90.37
¨ 55小时均价为91.95
¨ 伦敦低位为90.57
关注焦点
我们认为USDJPY在未来48小时将于89.30-90.90盘整，我们打算于汇价出现新低时买入，并以30点的止损保护，因为股市的低迷不振是市场继续走低的风险。因此，可于89.30附近买入，止损于89.00，目标90.35。 |
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发表于 12-2-2009 09:23 AM
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楼主 |
发表于 12-2-2009 10:38 AM
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楼主 |
发表于 17-2-2009 08:28 AM
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七国会议并没有宣布任何新奇的信息也没有作出重大决定，美元因回避风险而走强。欧元/美元似乎带有紧张的气氛开市并从1.2865下滑1.2726，英镑/美元也从1.4360下滑1.4150。日本的国民生产总值数据也极不理想（-12.7%），但美元/日圆并未因此突破关键的92.25-50区间，最后还跌至91.50。整体来说，我们对于这类型的会议其实没有太大的预期，但现况跟以往市场稳定的时候是截然不同的。根据Geithner上周的记者会，市场似乎对于模拟两可的谈话内容没有耐心。套息交易和股市持续受影响，美元也因此被买入去躲避风险。总括，七国会议总多言语上的交流都可以将一个热气球充满，但现在的问题是：气球会在未来的几周或几个月爆破吗？遗憾的是，我们期待急迫降落然后希望美元走强去缓和坠落。
汇市动向
· 据说选择权类型的交易者在1.2720-00附近买进并将止损设在下方。大型交易者据说在1.2840附近有卖意。
· 传闻日本出口商在92附近卖出，而大型买家则趁短暂下跌至91.60时买进。有实力的资金在欧洲定价买进，大量止损在91.20
· 技术性止损可能在1.2550上方，企业型买家在1.2425-00
· 据说英镑/美元在1.4130以下出现企业型止损
今日分析
· 200小时均线在1.2875
· 55小时均线在1.2835
· 心理支撑/支点在1.2700
· 星期五的收盘价为1.2860
关注焦点
我们认为在1.2825-50附近卖出欧元/美元， 以1.2900为止损及1.2625为止赢会是个不错的风险/回报率。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 12-2-2009 10:32 PM
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From: Dave Leaver
Sent: Thursday, February 12, 2009 8:27 AM
Subject: ORIGIN OF THE ECONOMY...
ORIGIN OF THE ECONOMY
In today’s morning update, we felt it only appropriate to reference Charles Darwin’s “Origin of the Species” on the 200th anniversary of his birthday (its Abraham Lincoln’s birthday as well for all you history buffs)… As the financial world grapples with its biggest crisis since the Great Depression, Darwin’s “survival of the fittest” theory seems to be most applicable as bank after bank surrenders to the subprime crisis and accepts loans from their respective governments (i.e. Citi Bank, Rbs ) So what banks, and more importantly what currencies, will be left standing when it is all said and done? That remains to be seen but the general outlook remains gloomy…..As a result, we expect the USD to strengthen against the EUR, GBP and CAD mostly due to its safe haven status but for other reasons as well....Remember, the USD soared at the outset of the sub prime meltdown back in August of 2007 (EUR/USD went from 1.38 to 1.33) and as the US senators continue to make a mockery of the modern day American CEO we expect even more stock market/carry trade upheaval and USD strength…In addition, we feel that events like the Canadian economy posting its first budget deficit since 1977 (see yesterday’s Trade Balance numbers) bodes VERY negatively for the CAD and look for 1.35 to eventually give way by month’s end….US Retail Sales and Weekly Jobless Claims at 8.30 am with Business Inventories at 10 am..Good Luck
FLOWS
· Talk of Eastern Europeans buying EUR/USD around 1.2820-00 with leverage and macro names selling up near 1.2875
· Reports of Japanese exporter offers around 90.40-50 in USD/JPY with semi official names seen bidding around 89.80-75
· Momentum accounts said to have sold AUD/USD on the .6510 break..Real money buyers reported around .6415
· Talk of momentum type stop losses below 1.4130 in GBP/USD with .9075-80 being a key level for EUR/GBP
FLAVOR OF THE DAY
· 200 hour moving average at 1.2890
· 55 hour moving average at 1.2910
· Psychological resistance at 1.3000
· Overnight low was 1.2797
THE ONE TO WATCH
We think EUR/USD is confined to a 1.2750-1.2920 range over the next 12 hours or so would sell rallies at 1.2885-1.2905 with a 1.2945 stop and 1.2765 objective or buy at 1.2765 with a 1.2725 stop and 1.2850 target
Dave Leaver |
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发表于 13-2-2009 01:27 AM
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forex
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all the member must learn what is technical analysis,talk before happen |
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