鼎鼎大名的经济专家说新加坡、香港房价拐头，马来西亚呢？！
Barclays Plc joined UBS AG (UBSN) and Bank of America Corp. in forecasting a Hong Kong property slump, predicting home prices will fall at least 30 percent by the end of 2015 as income growth stalls and supply increases.
A “downward spiral of home prices is likely” as developers and homeowners adjust expectations, analysts Paul Louie and Zita Qin wrote in a report today. They assigned a “negative” rating to the Hong Kong property sector and said office prices will drop 20 percent.
“The magnitude of the fall is underestimated,” the Barclays analysts wrote.
“下降的幅度被低估了，”巴克莱分析师写道。
Slowing SalesBuyers from mainland China, which accounted for as much as a quarter of home sales in Hong Kong at the peak in the fourth quarter of 2011, fell to 8 percent in the second quarter this year, according to Centaline. Hong Kong imposed an extra tax on home purchases by companies and non-residents in October 2012. Developers in the first half sold 4,300 residential units, the fewest since the second half of 2008, after the government in February doubled stamp duty taxes on property transactions over HK$2 million. To make up for the first half’s slowing sales, developers will need to cut prices to attract buyers, according to the Barclays analysts.
Prices TripleThe city’s last major home-price crash started in October 1997 and lasted six years. Prices fell almost 50 percent in the next 12 months after former Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa announced plans to add as many as 85,000 housing units in response to a doubling of real estate prices over the previous two years, and as the Asian financial crisis dampened confidence. They declined more than 60 percent to a trough in 2003 and have more than tripled since then. Raymond Ngai of Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit and UBS’s Eva Lee are among analysts who over the past month have forecast home prices in the city will drop as much as 25 percent as demand wanes because of government curbs and the expectation of rising interest rates.
Since 2010, Hong Kong has introduced a raft of measures, including extra property transaction taxes and tighter mortgage-lending requirements, to damp prices and avert a housing bubble. Total residential transactions in the first half fell to the lowest since 1996, according to data available on the Land Registry’s website. 自2010年以来，香港已推行了一系列的措施，包括额外的物业交易税及收紧按揭贷款要求，，受潮价格和避免房地产泡沫。住宅成交总额在上半年跌至1996年以来的最低水平，根据土地注册处的网站上提供的数据。
本帖最后由 allfree 于 28-10-2013 08:14 PM 编辑
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本帖最后由 allfree 于 27-10-2013 10:29 PM 编辑 
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