【AIRASIA 5099 交流专区 1】亚洲航空

祿

明年 ASEAN open-sky 时代开始了？？是開放領空嗎？
車的都可寧后那麽多年。。別檔心

8years

“这是正确的策略，因为要准备好全力攻打 2009年 ASEAN open-sky 的庞大市场。”

高手出招果然是不同。这讯息也是投资者非常重要的，同样的也是没有人提起。
不过这是大战的开始，鹿死谁手还不知道，现在买进airasia依然是前景未卜。我依然认为大战对airasia绝对不利，没有什么原因，最强的原因就是airasia资本少，大战之下很容易失败，只要各大军区玩价钱，airasia肯定是第一个死。

khokhokho

原帖由 8years 于 25-5-2008 07:53 PM 发表
我依然认为大战对airasia绝对不利，没有什么原因，最强的原因就是airasia资本低，大战之下很容易失败，只要各大军区玩价钱，airasia肯定是第一个死。

我的基地在中間，你的基地在下方，水從我上方流下來，只要我在自已的基地半路開過另一條水道，這上方的水就無法流下去下方。

上方 = 資金
中方 = 馬航
下方 = 亞航

不知8years 明我此意嗎?

我也他們講，飛先~

8years

恐怕中间还有Tiger 和 Jetstar 和其他xyz等等。。。。。。。。

bryon

为了延后开放汽车市场，政府不知道赔偿了多少钱给好几个邻近国家

khokhokho

原帖由 8years 于 25-5-2008 08:08 PM 发表
恐怕中间还有Tiger 和 Jetstar 和其他xyz等等。。。。。。。。

不過危機中有生機，可能Tiger 和 Jetstar 和其他xyz有其中家不song馬航如此靠政府來打擊亞航，有可能其中一家會和亞航合作，這樣一來，亞航有了靠山，外地航線也就應該不會問題。

8years

恐怕胃口不大，吃不了那么多的飞机

khokhokho

原帖由 8years 于 25-5-2008 08:34 PM 发表
恐怕胃口不大，吃不了那么多的飞机

事事無決對，亞航能不能頂的過馬航的攻勢下還能轉敗為勝，就要靠外資能否合作，因為亞航要飛外地線，馬航也是要飛，而且一家五星的航空就是最大的本錢，hoter也是一樣，也有分星級，如果五星的價錢變成二星的價錢，試問是要往五星hoter還是要往二星hoter呢?

wtk75

亚洲航空，明天就飞给我们看

ccube

原帖由 khokhokho 于 25-5-2008 09:06 PM 发表

事事無決對，亞航能不能頂的過馬航的攻勢下還能轉敗為勝，就要靠外資能否合作，因為亞航要飛外地線，馬航也是要飛，而且一家五星的航空就是最大的本錢，hoter也是一樣，也有分星級，如果五星的價錢變成二星的價錢， ...

如果五星的航空长时间卖二星的价钱。。 亏的钱应该不会比二星航空少。。。
除非五星航空只提供二星服务。。。

Mr.Business

原帖由 invest_klse 于 25-5-2008 03:43 PM 发表
分享一篇文章：http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2008/05/airasia-below-ipo-price.html

（我对这位仁兄提出的某些论点蛮赞同的。）

Thursday, May 22, 2008
AirAsia Below IPO Price



Imagine building a business from scratch into one with an enviable regional footprint. Now just on soaring oil and jet fuel prices, a global credit crunch, and fears about decelerating economies and consumer spending: the share price is even below its IPO price level.

In a difficult environment, you would think that the low-cost-carrier model would be far superior to a full service carrier. However, that is not the case. In fact many investors are preferring MAS and Singapore Air to Air Asia's prospects over the next 12-24 months! There has to be a dislocation somewhere.

Low-cost carrier Oasis Hong Kong Airlines has been Asia's only casualty so far in 2008, although Adam Air in Indonesia remains grounded after the withdrawal of key investors. Safe to say that you will be tying your hands if you choose to operate a LCC out of HK or Singapore. Being based out of Malaysia and Thailand naturally give Air Asia enormous cost advantages.

In the United States, no fewer than five airlines have filed for bankruptcy in the past two months. Add in Champion Air, which will halt flights on May 31, and December casualty MAXjet Airways, and the picture there appears bleak for all airlines. Delta Air Lines in the US, itself just one year removed from bankruptcy, agreed to merge with Northwest Airlines in a stock deal worth more than US$3 billion. Both operators had recorded losses in the first three months of the year to take the first quarter deficit among major US carriers to US$1.38 billion.

It is not hard to see why the industry is under pressure. By mid-April, oil prices had reached a record US$115 per barrel, and now US$130. The global average price paid at the refinery for aviation jet fuel was US$145.40 a barrel in the week to April 18, a 78% year-on-year rise, reports the International Association of Air Transport (IATA).

IATA has downgraded its outlook for 2008 as it expects stagflation to hit air traffic demand. It cut this year's operating profit target for the industry 42% from US$21 billion in June 2007 to US$12.1 billion. For Asia, the figure drops 80% over the same period, to US$700 million. The squeeze would kill off a few airlines, but at the same time shrink the competition capacity for those who survive. Hence it is very important to look at AirAsia more closely, a survivor or something less than that.

Many of the LCCs out of Asia have failed to survive after just a couple of years. Some did not even come out of their starting blocks. IATA predicts that overall capacity in the Asia-Pacific region will rise by 8.8% this year against demand growth of just 6.4% – in other words, higher growth in seats than passengers.
For LCCs, some of the critical decisions would be:
to manage fuel cost, manage labour cost, to buy or lease planes, and be properly capitalised. Failure will surely follow if a LCC did any of the above poorly. Seat management should not be a big problem as demand is there in Asia.

Oasis was based out of Hong Kong International Airport – its crew costs, overheads, and ground and handling fees were high – where it was competing against some of the industry's biggest players, including Cathay. It also had to base its crews and its staff in Hong Kong and Vancouver overnight. AirAsia has its own LCC terminal, enough said. Virgin Blue and Air Asia X, 48%-owned by Fernandes, can also rely on a passenger feed network to fill up their planes, whereas Oasis was flying solo.

"AirAsia X arrives in Kuala Lumpur and on its doorstep has 75 [AirAsia planes] flying all over south-east Asia, so it has a natural feed, as opposed to Oasis which was landing in Hong Kong and was not going to have a Cathay working with them," says Fernandes. And Oasis would have had to pay market rates for its Boeing 747-400s, while AirAsia has a working relationship with Airbus. Oasis also offered passengers free meals and in-flight entertainment, and assigned 22% of its seating to business class - not exactly a LCC model.

However, the visible failure of Oasis may have contributed to the downgrading of AirAsia over the last 3 months.

Malaysia Airlines, meanwhile, is in acquisition mode and is in a net cash position of about RM4.4 billion (US$1.3 billion) following a rights and loan stock issue last year.

Competition
AirAsia already has a 49% interest in Thai AirAsia and in Indonesia AirAsia, and Fernandes is eyeing further tie-ups in south-east Asia.

All Nippon Airways in Japan has stated its intention to establish a low-cost carrier, either via joint-venture or acquisition, to fend off competition from budget rivals. Indonesia's Lion Air has said that it will buy stakes or create new carriers in Vietnam, the Philippines, Bangladesh and South Korea and is launching an Australian tie-up with Brisbane-based SkyAirWorld this year.

Meanwhile, Singapore-based Tiger Airways wants to become a pan-Asia carrier and is keen to establish regional bases through franchise partners. It has announced a joint-venture with Incheon City Council in South Korea to launch an Incheon-based low-cost carrier this year.

Then there is Jetstar, whose Australian and long-haul carriers are owned by Qantas and whose Singapore arm is part-owned by Qantas and backed by state investment agency Temasek. Both Qantas and Temasek are committed to the advance of the low-cost carrier market.

In South Korea, Asiana Airlines acquired a controlling stake in proposed low-cost operator Air Busan, while Yeongnam Air, JB Airways and up to four more start-ups are reportedly preparing for launch. And three airlines are entering the Vietnamese market: VietJet Air, Airspeed Up and Phu Quoc Air. Qantas has also bought a stake in Pacific Airlines, which will facilitate cross-border joint-venture operations with Jetstar. The Vietnamese government vetoed a planned joint-venture between AirAsia and state-owned ship-builder Vinashin, but Fernandes clearly fancies the market.

In Thailand, Thai Airways and its low-cost affiliate, Nok Air, are squabbling, and the former is threatening to re-explore operating a wholly owned subsidiary, notes Capa. Meanwhile, One-Two-Go, Thailand's second-largest budget carrier by fleet, is suffering from fuel-intensive aircraft and under pressure following a crash in Phuket last year in which more than 80 people died.
Hedging Fuel Cost

Singapore Airlines start hedging today for 18 months in the future. Whatever the date in the future is, they will build up 50% cover and they will do it with fairly traditional hedging mechanisms.Cathay Pacific's method as more convoluted. They have put in place a complex structure of swaps, options and three-way options [selling put, buying call and selling another call with a higher strike price]. And that gives them a degree of protection. They are hedged about 30% for 2008 volumes. The head of commodities at one global investment bank names Qantas, All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines as committed fuel hedgers. Malaysia Airlines, meanwhile, has a conservative policy of benchmarking its fuel hedging ratio against the average hedge ratio of regional airline peers.

AirAsia takes a more directional bet as part of its hedging policy. In late 2007, AirAsia management sold call options at US$82.60/bbl for 150,000 barrels per month, and the call options will be triggered if West Texas Intermediate [WTI] crude prices average US$90/bbl for the month. If WTI oil prices stay above US$90/bbl during January 2009 to June 2010, the losses for AirAsia are likely to mount between the spot price and US$82.60/bbl. But Fernandes says AirAsia has taken 80% of those calls out with a hedge to the end of 2009. That seems to have gone over the heads of analysts and investors. Let's repeat, 80% of those calls have been taken out and they have a hedge till the end of 2009.
Based on absolute PER, AirAsia is ridiculously cheap. Trading at just 5x 2007 and 6.2x 2008 earnings. More importantly, its net interest cover is at a manageable 2.7x, but that figure cannot and should not go much lower from here. Its ROE is still at a very respectable 23%.

The over-riding fears would be the fuel cost. Can AirAsia still pass on some of the irrational hikes in fuel cost? AirAsia should be raising fuel surcharge by RM8-12 per pax sometime this year. Considering where AirAsia is now, that should not affect demand even with the hike.

You have two major risks: fuel price and leverage. As shown, these are certainly not debilitating. Bearing in mind AirAsia has already come through even more difficult phases: SARs epidemic and the tsunami-follow on effect on air travel. The two major risks are manageable. The more difficult phases saw a sharp downturn in passengers, which is not happening now. Hence balancing all that, the current share price levels would be an opportunity, not a call to join the bear camps. (Reference price RM1.08)

khokhokho

原帖由 ccube 于 25-5-2008 10:53 PM 发表


如果五星的航空长时间卖二星的价钱。。 亏的钱应该不会比二星航空少。。。
除非五星航空只提供二星服务。。。

問題是馬航用那 30%沒賣出去的票，定票限制在一個月，所以不管如何，這些30%的票是五星級，所以重點就是這里分別所在。

bryon

MELBOURNE, May 26 (Bernama) -- Jetstar will employ foreign pilots in a large-scale hiring of international flight crew.


The budget Qantas offshoot has reportedly secured the support of Australian Immigration Minister Chris Evans and Employment Minister Julia Gillard to employ 75 foreign pilots.

Jetstar said the move, which was expected to be opposed by aviation unions, was needed to address the chronic pilot shortage, The Australian Financial Review reported today.

"We are in a global industry and we should be able to source a global talent pool," Jetstar's chief executive Alan Joyce told the paper.

The foreign pilots will be used on Jetstar's domestic and international routes, and the first visa application was processed last week.

Jetstar has also recently hired 20 foreign cabin crew on 457 visas and has government approval to hire up to 60 more. -- BERNAMA

ccube

原帖由 khokhokho 于 26-5-2008 10:12 AM 发表

問題是馬航用那 30%沒賣出去的票，定票限制在一個月，所以不管如何，這些30%的票是五星級，所以重點就是這里分別所在。

如果这30%的票很多是被原来愿意买五星票价的顾客买了呢？。。。
结果剩下70% 二星顾客也不会买的

khokhokho

原帖由 ccube 于 26-5-2008 08:55 PM 发表


如果这30%的票很多是被原来愿意买五星票价的顾客买了呢？。。。
结果剩下70% 二星顾客也不会买的

70%的票是已經算全年的了，而30%是空位子，所以馬航把30%機票放成free的系統，當中有附加費用，無非是幫補油價，所以那70%的票是已經賣出去的。

如此一來，原本空的30%就可以幫馬航拉底成本，那就是70%是淨賺，而30%是應付油價，所以馬航不擔心沒人要，而且有問過坐飛機的人士，他們都講，亞航的機埸不能和馬航的國際機埸相比，一個是全自動，一個是沒自動，而且要走過去，馬航那里是自動電路的系統，而且是國際化，所以平均算到來，五星級和二星級的服務就可以從中了解。

再加上亞航的時間不凖，如果沒一天凖時起飛，我想成本更本不平均，如果要做到每架飛機凖時起飛，那就是要看看亞航是有多少資金能否頂的往油價的高漲，所以馬航也就是有利這方面，並不擔心這30%的free機票沒人要，而且是以一個月來算，所以一年里就省下了油價和賣不出去的機票，所以在一年里，馬航能測量自已的營業額會達到那里，所以下來如果再加上新的計劃，我看馬航應是全球最賺錢之一的航機股了。

goodluck88

之前AA还没有搬去LCCT....在KLIA也是全自动的....
后来搬去了LCCT....才变成现在这样....

khokhokho

原帖由 goodluck88 于 26-5-2008 10:38 PM 发表
之前AA还没有搬去LCCT....在KLIA也是全自动的....
后来搬去了LCCT....才变成现在这样....

所以明顯是馬航有政治背後支援，不過當時亞航在國際機埸時也好不了那，我當時也坐亞航，出機時切要從後門出來

goodluck88

刚刚开业的亚航的确很差....但是目前比起以前....好很多很多了....
但是当然....如果MAS和AA的价钱差不多一样...我会选择MAS.....

khokhokho

原帖由 goodluck88 于 26-5-2008 10:49 PM 发表
刚刚开业的亚航的确很差....但是目前比起以前....好很多很多了....
但是当然....如果MAS和AA的价钱差不多一样...我会选择MAS.....

馬航應該拿一杯 給亞航的老板，謝謝他教會了馬航如何自救。

goodluck88

GLC就是这样的了.....