我的功课（从Comsa的假账谈起。。。）

klse.8k

Megan的董事酬劳

从最新的年报中我发现一个奇怪的现象，那就是董事的酬劳减少了。
（根据4/2006年报，第45页）

4/2005财政年的董事酬劳合计273万，而4/2006财政年的却是220万。
（减少了53万）

这期间，Megan的营业额增加了14.3%。（从9.05亿增加到10.35亿）
税前盈利也增加了27.2%。（从6823万增加到8679万）

为什么Megan的管理层不乘机提高他们的酬劳呢？
难道他们觉得以前拿得太多了？

这期间Megan共有6位董事（3位执行董事和3位非执行董事）

lklatmy

原帖由 klse.8k 于 13-9-2006 08:26 AM 发表
Megan的董事酬劳

Megan的营业额增加了14.3%。（从9.05亿增加到10.35亿）
税前盈利也增加了27.2%。（从6823万增加到8679万）
...

假使Megan保持折旧率于20％for plant and machinery,profit before tax is86.7million减45.3million,等于41.4million,相等于减少了26.8million,or-39%year on year.

tseewie

http://www.dvd-recordable.org/mo ... num=1&total=153

很好的网站，你可以从中找到 Optical Disc Industry的消息和展望。。。

原帖由 klse.8k 于 13-9-2006 08:26 AM 发表
Megan的董事酬劳

从最新的年报中我发现一个奇怪的现象，那就是董事的酬劳减少了。
（根据4/2006年报，第45页）

4/2005财政年的董事酬劳合计273万，而4/2006财政年的却是220万。
（减少了53万）

这期间 ...

I feel that the 董事酬劳 is very little for a company that make 80mil per year. If I do not know the below cases, I will have already buy the share.

Remember I mentioned when they buy Singapore firm, they pay RM97, and the singapore firm owe RM153mil, which is abt RM260mil in total. But this company only make around 14mil, which is 5.3% per year, this require at least 18 years to pay back. If you have a company today by yourself, will you buy??

hdcyng

原帖由 veriton 于 13-9-2006 05:29 PM 发表



I feel that the 董事酬劳 is very little for a company that make 80mil per year. If I do not know the below cases, I will have already buy the share.

Remember I mentioned when they buy Sing ...

Now, I know why fund manager don't like Megan

哇。。好精彩！！
明天我也来买一点点 让我也有心关心它，读你们的帖。。
只应有那么多前辈在研究它。。从中相信一定可以学到很多 输了？算交学费吧。。反正一点点。。
我不在乎结局，要的是在这投资的过程里学到的，我相信会让我在股海心路上受用一生的。。

DRAGONISM

原帖由 veriton 于 13-9-2006 05:29 PM 发表

Remember I mentioned when they buy Singapore firm, they pay RM97, and the singapore firm owe RM153mil, which is abt RM260mil in total. But this company only make around 14mil, which is 5.3% per year, this require at least 18 years to pay back. If you have a company today by yourself, will you buy??  

Hi Veriton,
还没买MJCS前，谁是MJCS的老板？
用RM260mil(2億6千万??)买MJCS，谁的获益最大？

klse.8k

原帖由 veriton 于 13-9-2006 05:29 PM 发表



Remember I mentioned when they buy Singapore firm, they pay RM97, and the singapore firm owe RM153mil, which is abt RM250mil in total. But this company only make around 14mil, which is 5.6% per year, this require at least 18 years to pay back. If you have a company today by yourself, will you buy??

假设有这样的2间工厂。。。

工厂A的净资产（NTA）是97万，管理层的经营手法很保守，没有负债，它每年可以赚取9万。
今天它要以97万的价钱出让，这价钱合理吗？

工厂B的净资产（NTA）也是97万，管理层的经营手法很积极，把产品卖给几间跨国公司，因为帐期比较长，所以就向银行贷款153万来放账，它每年可以赚取14万。
今天它要以97万的价钱出让，这价钱合理吗？

现在我们来认真地考虑这问题：

（一）到底买工厂A比较划算，还是买工厂B比较划算？

（二）买工厂A是用97万，那么，买工厂B是用多少钱呢？

（三）如果说买工厂B是用250万，这样的数学对吗？

khokhokho

以一般放債期來講，可長可短。

(一)比方短期來講，保守，出貨先還錢，貨才給你，那久了，人家會一直和你做交易嗎，市埸不只你一個人做這一門生意，沒生意做了，那也就是不用去UPDATE新機器，久了，生產量下跌，最後也就是關門大吉。看不到前途。

(二)比方長期來講，我做一樣產品是先用錢去生產，那賣給對方時，以大宗交易來講通常會放債好久才會還錢給你，那公司生產的資金一直用，沒進錢，最後也得和人家惜錢來生產產品，這叫做長期生意。所以生意越做越大，生產也會跟進做大，機器不夠用，就得買新機器來生產，負債就會上升，但是盈利也會上升。有前途的公司。
那我覺得(二)比較有發展空間的力量。
        (一)比較無生機的發展空間。


[ 本帖最后由 khokhokho 于 13-9-2006 10:53 PM 编辑 ]

shuhjiunho

原帖由 klse.8k 于 13-9-2006 10:30 PM 发表


假设有这样的2间工厂。。。

（一）到底买工厂A比较划算，还是买工厂B比较划算？

我们排除折旧不谈。简单的数学，和简单的现金流。
问题（一）

工厂A，我如果用是97万买工厂，每年能够赚9万的现金，大约10%的报酬。不错的投资。

工厂B，有贷款153万，我们假设15年还清贷款，那么每年必须还10万。如果工厂能够赚14万，扣除必须还贷款的10万块钱，那么每一年我们能够赚取4万的现金。如果以97万买入工厂B，每年赚取4万。投资报酬4%。这个报酬只是银行的定期存款率。如果工厂B没有更好的发展，那么我喜欢放钱在银行，稳定些。

[ 本帖最后由 shuhjiunho 于 13-9-2006 11:08 PM 编辑 ]

shuhjiunho

原帖由 klse.8k 于 13-9-2006 10:30 PM 发表

原帖由 klse.8k 于 13-9-2006 10:30 PM 发表


假设有这样的2间工厂。。。

（二）买工厂A是用97万，那么，买工厂B是用多少钱呢？

如果工厂B没有更好的发展，每年只是能够赚取4万块钱现金。如果我要求的报酬是10%，我出价最高40万。

shuhjiunho

原帖由 klse.8k 于 13-9-2006 10:30 PM 发表


假设有这样的2间工厂。。。

（三）如果说买工厂B是用250万，这样的数学对吗？

这个简直是遭透的买价。用250万来买一间公司，每年只是能赚取4万块现金，只是1%的报酬。

yeowtk

原帖由 shuhjiunho 于 13-9-2006 11:14 PM 发表


这个简直是遭透的买价。用250万来买一间公司，每年只是能赚取4万块现金，只是1%的报酬。

我觉得这并不是那末简单，用153万放出去的帐是可收回的，它并不算是买公司的成本。

klse.8k

原帖由 shuhjiunho 于 13-9-2006 11:06 PM 发表



我们排除折旧不谈。简单的数学，和简单的现金流。
问题（一）

工厂A，我如果用是97万买工厂，每年能够赚9万的现金，大约10%的报酬。不错的投资。

工厂B，有贷款153万，我们假设15年还清贷款，那么每 ...

我真的不能明白，为什么这样多人，每次一提起贷款就用年数来除，就好像这例子，欠了银行153万，每年的盈利14万，就马上拿153来除14，答案11年。
（到底得到这答案有什么用？）

先回到工厂B这例子。。。

工厂B为了接大客户，所以被迫去放账，这是很平常的商业活动，每个厂家都知道，要接大客户就要有能力放账，否则免谈。
所以，工厂B就向银行贷款153万来放账给大客户。

也许我们会这样想：
工厂B欠银行153万，这笔钱肯定要还。
但是，大客户欠它的153万，它却不一定能够收得到。

不过，从银行的角度来看：
银行相信大客户一定会还钱给工厂B，但是，工厂B却不一定会还钱给银行，所以银行会要求工厂B提供抵押品。
（你只要假设大客户是Wal-Mart，你就明白这道理了）

从银行的角度来看，只要工厂B能够还利息，银行是很乐意长期的借钱给它。
从工厂B的角度来看，只要大客户继续的跟它来往，它是很乐意的放账。
从大客户的角度来看，只要价钱相宜，它欠供应商（工厂B）是理所当然的事情。
（所以，只要生意还在，清还贷款的念头是不存在的）

那么贷款就不需要清还吗？
对于工厂B而言，它最怕的是大客户突然要清还所有的欠款。
（这意味着大客户要去跟别家买货了）

Megan就是这样子，它只有100个大客户，每个都很能吃货，所以它的trade receivables超大。

根据Megan的年报（4/2006）：
它的机器是6.61亿，而trade & other receivables却是5.63亿，而总负债是8.40亿。

Harimau有说过，一位能够吃货几个container的商人要跟Megan买货，Megan还不想做他的生意呢。
（从这点就可以看出，Megan的客户都是不简单的）

如果有一天，Megan的trade receivables突然变小了，那么就是坏消息了，因为它的大客户已经跑掉了！
所以我从来都不担心Megan超大的trade receivables。
（所以也就不担心它的债务了）

我担心的是share price. 如果客户要走人，必须即刻的付款？

我说 ：market price tell you everything. don't depend on the so called past " audited " reports.

tseewie

三份关于MEGAN收购MJC的旧新闻：

03-04-2003: Question marks over Megan Media’s proposal to acquire MJC
By Thomas Soon, 4.08pm
Megan Media Holdings Bhd’s proposed acquisition of the entire equity interest in MJC (Singapore) Pte Ltd has received mixed responses, with some analysts pondering over its implications.
On April 2, Megan Media signed a memorandum of understanding with Speed Media Ltd, Yeo Wee Siong and Yeo Wee Koon, who collectively hold 74.03 per cent stake in MJC towards the acquisition of the entire stake from all shareholders.
Wee Siong is a director and substantial shareholder of both Megan Media and MJC, while Wee Koon is a substantial shareholder of the two companies. Both also jointly control Speed Media. MJC in turn has a 12 per cent stake in Megan Media.
Notably, the proposed acquisition translates into a sell-down of stakes in Megan Media by Wee Siong and Wee Koon and this has left analysts wondering why the sell-down by these major shareholders.
In a report, AmResearch said the proposed acquisition effectively means a major sell-down of their stakes in Megan Media by Wee Siong and Wee Koon, besides the creation of a cross-holding position.
It said Wee Siong and Wee Koon would be left with 3.5 per cent and 2.2 per cent stakes in Megan respectively after the sale. “This gives rise to more questions and potentially more implications.”
“Pending clarification from management, we are maintaining our forecasts and hold recommendation,” said AmResearch.
The research house said Megan Media could pay up to RM95 million for the acquisition, assuming net profit of MJC at RM18 million. “Based on this assumption, the acquisition could strain its balance sheet further with net gearing bumping up to 120 per cent from 55 per cent as at January 2003.”
As at Dec 31, 2001, MJC posted turnover of S$95.54 (RM200.63 million). In its announcement on April 2, Megan Media left out information on MJC’s earnings and assets.
AmResearch said while it could not yet quantify the impact of the acquisition, MJC would provide Megan Media the opportunity to double its production capacity and become a major manufacturer of blank optical discs in Southeast Asia.
Mayban Research said there was unlikely to be any share swap for the proposed acquisition due to Megan Media’s current low valuation. “This implies that Megan would have to increase its borrowings for the purchase.”
Nonetheless, it maintained its buy call on Megan Media, saying: “Pending further announcement, we remain optimistic on Megan’s future with demand for CD-Rs (compact discs recordables) and DVD-Rs (digital versatile discs recordables) still high.”
Mayban Research said Megan Media’s revenue base post acquisition would be comparable to the second tier Taiwanese players. “With the enlarged income stream, we believe Megan Media should be more favourable.”
Megan Media has said the proposed acquisition is in line with its plan to expand its market share in the data storage products industry. It said it would double production capacity elevating it to a major producer of blank optical discs in Southeast Asia.
The company said the acquisition would allow it immediate access to MJC’s established marketing network and manufacturing expertise.
“Megan’s revenue is expected to increase substantially upon completion of the proposed acquisition,” it said. It did not state the impact on earnings.
As at Feb 28, 2003, MJC’s paid-up capital stood at S$32.88 million comprising 32.88 shares. It is involved in the original equipment manufacturer supply and distribution of data storage products such as videocassette tapes and housings, floppy diskettes, blank CD-Rs and blank DVD-Rs and the distribution of consumer electronic products.

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/ ... ticle.Article_20626



30-04-2003: Megan Media acquires MJC S'pore at RM97 mln cash
By Thomas Soon, 9.07pm
Megan Media Holdings Bhd is acquiring the entire equity interest in MJC (Singapore) Pte Ltd comprising 32.88 million shares at US$25.57 million cash (RM97.16 million).
In a statement on April 30, Megan Media said it signed a conditional sale and purchase agreement on the same day with the vendors, including Speed Media Ltd, Yeo Wee Siong and Yeo Wee Koon, for the proposed acquisition.
The transaction price considered MJC group's audited consolidated net tangible assets of about S$45.26 million (RM97.31 million) as at Dec 31, 2002, the historical performance and earnings potential.
Megan Media said it would finance the acquisition through a mixture of bank borrowings and internal funds. It expected the proposed acquisition to be completed by mid-July.
As of April 29, MJC holds 8.62 million Megan Media shares, which it would dispose of to Wee Siong, their common and substantial shareholder, pursuant to a conditional share sale agreement dated April 30, for RM18.19 million or RM2.11 per share.
Megan Media closed unchanged at RM1.97 on April 30.

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/ ... ticle.Article_21349




2-5-2003 Maybank Research: Megan Media's buy of MJC for RM97 mln fair
By Jimmy Yeow
Maybank Research says the RM97 million paid by Megan Media Holdings Bhd for the proposed purchase of 100 per cent or 32.88 million shares in MJC (Singapore) Pte Ltd is fair given the price to net tangible asset of one and price earning ratio of 6.8 times.
The price was based on MJCS' audited consolidated net tangible asset of S$45.26 million (RM97.31 million) as at Dec 31, 2002.
Megan Media has proposed to acquire the MJC shares from Speed Media Ltd, Yeo Wee Siong, Yeo Wee Koon and other vendors. As at April 29 this year, MJCS hold about 8.6 million shares in Megan, which along with the proposal would dispose its shareholding in Megan to Yeo Wee Siong for RM18.2 million or RM 2.11 each.
"We deem the proposed prices as fair given that the acquisition is at 2002 Price/NTA of 1x and PER of 6.6x (based on MJCS net earnings of S$6.7 million). Megan is currently trading at FY2002 PER of 5.8x, while its regional peers' historical PER is approximately 14x," Mayban Research said.
MJCS has an annual production capacity of 34 million units of CD-Rs and 1.8 million units of DVD-Rs. This is 40 per cent of Megan's capacity of 90 million units a month.
The research house said in addition, MJCS had also the rights to manufacture and supply various data storage products such as audio tapes, video cassette tapes, floppy diskettes, CD-Rs and DVD-Rs for certain multinational companies.
"MJCS' market spans from the US to Europe and with this acquisition, Megan's net gearing may expand to 1.2 times from the current 0.6 times. However, interest cover ratio for FY2004 should still be comfortable at five to six times (based on Megan's current interest charges of about six per cent)," Mayban Research said.

http://203.115.192.58/cms/conten ... ticle.Article_21367

piao2

虽然能够顶很多大顾客，证明megan的现金管理很强，但是，如果万一有2%的顾客赖账不还（烂账--有可能的风险），就是5.63亿的2%=大概11 million。

还有，必须考虑的风险是如果顾客忽然拉账，假设从90天拖到150天，那么megan的现金流会否出现问题？最近生意不好做，连好的paymaster也开始拉账，不可不防。

当然，megan做的生意是以出口为主，在收账能力方面因该比较占优势（除非不走LC）。从刚上市到如今生意翻了10倍，现金流相对更为重要，相信银行也给于megan不少financial muscle吧？

yschai34

小弟也進一點，准备学，亏完就当交学费， 赚就当零用钱

原帖由 DRAGONISM 于 13-9-2006 09:08 PM 发表


Hi Veriton,
还没买MJCS前，谁是MJCS的老板？
用RM260mil(2億6千万??)买MJCS，谁的获益最大？

It is MR Yeo, he become major share holder after that, just like BJCORP, Vincent Tan sell his land to BJGROUP to own more than 60% of BJCORP.

chinchai

Hi, Kawan Megan.
  
   70 年代, 我大哥的工厂, 由于机器太残旧了, 生产极慢, 不够交货. (台湾机器).

经过董事局开会, 决定改买德国机器, 因为德国机器有许多优点 = 宁静不吵, 生产快速, 用工人极少.

省电, 装置空间小,(利用地方极小).但是价格很贵, US$ 1 千 600万. (经过计算,还是决定买)....

我大哥到德国谈判, 参观, 接洽, 据他回耒时透露 = 卖方有建议回扣十巴仙 = (COMMISION)....

我太哥谢绝了说 : 如果要回扣十巴仙, 我私人不要, 要扣就扣给公司吧!! = (白乌鸦).  嘻嘻!!

请问 Megan 的年青管理层有这种能耐吗 ?

请问 Megan 的年青管理层有这种企业者的廉洁操守吗 ?

请问 Megan 的年青管理层, 为什么汇那么多钱到国外, (213 million), 拼命添置机器 ??

说真的, 的确让人怀疑, ???????

..