我的功课（从Comsa的假账谈起。。。）

tseewie

Customers and Competitors of Megan

During IPO (August 2000):
Megan Media sells 92% of their products to export markets, and only 8% domestically in Malaysia. The exorts are mainly to USA, Canada, China, Germany, Japan and Singapore.
Local Malaysian customers include: Wawasan Videovan Sdn Bhd and Andex Worldwide Trading.
Overseas customers include: EMTEC Magnetics GMBH, Cantech Magnetics Inc, Akane Bussan Co Ltd., and Duplimax Inc.

Competition:
Local Malaysian competitors include: Mega High-Tech Corp and Discomp Magnetic, a subsidiary of Chuan Huat Resources--a publicly listed company.
Foreign competitors: manufacturers of video cassette tapes, and CDs like Star Cassette Tapes Manufactory, CMC Magnetics Corp, Datapulse Technologh (Singapore), General Magnetics (Singapore), and Ritek Corp


Oct 2002:
Customer: Germany, South Korea

It is an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) for Samsung Electronics and LG Group as well as Grundig.


March 2003:
The company's main revenue comes from contract or original equipment manufacturing for brands from companies such as BASF, Samsung, LG, Grundig, Mitsubishi, JVC and IBM.
About 90% of Megan's products are exported, of which 35% goes to the European Union, 35% to the US, and the remainder to Japan, Korea and Singapore. Principal overseas customers include Europe Multimedia Ltd, Cantech Magnetics Inc, Akane Bussan Co Ltd, MJC (S) Pte Ltd and Mediatech Co Ltd.
The company is also making a move into the China market with a recent memorandum of understanding signed with Beidaihe Qinhuandao Xingyuan Science Development Co Ltd to jointly undertake the manufacturing and distribution of data storage products.


December 2003
Approximately 95% of Megan Media’s products are targeted for export. Besides carrying its own ‘Memory’ brand name, the group also caters to Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) names like IBM, BASF, Polariod, Mitsubishi and
Grundig. Export markets include the USA, Germany, United Kingdom, Canada, Singapore and Japan.


April 2004
Its major customer EuroMultiMedia owns the rights to distribute storage products owned by Grundig AG, which is seeking creditor protection after breakdown in talks on sale of Grundig to two investors;

May 2005
The company's source of growth would be from new markets like China, Japan, India, South America and East Asian countries.

October 2005
About 9% of the products are circulated domestically while the rest are exported to North and South America and East Asia.
Megan’s Top 5 customers, which account for about 50% of its business, include big
names like Grundig (16% of FY2005 revenue)  Emtec (10%), Sheerwood (8%), and LG (4%), Seahan (3%) and others (59%).

Major Taiwanese manufacturers: CMC Magnetics and Ritek

Regional Peer Comparison
FY06                         PER        Price-to-Book
CMC Magnetics         21.2*        0.79
Ritek                         5.0*         0.49
Moser Baer                 12.4*         1.19
Megan Media                 3.1        0.45
*based on consensus numbers
Source: Bloomberg


October 2005 (RAM Report)

MMHB is the largest contract manufacturer of optical-storage media
(“OSM”) products, i.e. CD-Rs and DVD-Rs, in the South-East Asian region,
with a global market share of approximately 5% as at the end of FYE 30
April 2005 (“FY Apr 2005”). The Group’s market share had grown from 3%
the year before after its considerable capacity expansion in DVD-Rs over
the past 2 years. While MMHB’s capacity is only a fraction of its Taiwanese
counterparts’, it has nonetheless been able to remain a significant
alternative supplier for several large original equipment manufacturers
(“OEMs”). These OEMs include LG Electronics Inc (“LG”), Samsung
Corporation (“Samsung”), EMTEC Group (“EMTEC”), Mitsubishi Electric
Europe BV (“Mitsubishi Electric”), Grundig AG (“Grundig”) and JVC. The
Group’s location outside Taiwan is attractive to OEMs given their
substantial exposure in terms of single-country risk.

At end-2004, global demand for DVD-Rs had already breached 2 billion
units, far exceeding the earlier projection of 1.1 billion units. Demand is
now forecasted to reach 4.5 billion units worldwide for 2005, with North
America and Europe being the largest consumers by region,
encompassing prominent global clients like Microsoft Corporation
(“Microsoft”), Sony Corporation (“Sony”), Hewlett-Packard Company (“HP”)
and JVC Company (“JVC”). Going forward, demand will be driven by 2
main factors – the increasing size of software programmes and the
emergence of more affordable DVD recorders.

In addition, the Group manufactures and markets an in-house line of OSM products under the Memory brand name, which account for approximately 7% of its yearly turnover.

The industry is dominated by manufacturers in Taiwan and China, such as CMC Magnetics Corporation (“CMC”, Largest OSM product manufacturer in the world), Ritek Corporation (“Ritek”, Second largest OSM product manufacturer in the world) and Prodisc Technology (“Prodisc”, One of the top 5 OSM product manufacturers in the world), as well as Lead Data, Giga Storage, Princo Corp and
Opto Disc. Together, these companies provide around 60% of the world’s supply
of OSM products. Lately, many of the larger Taiwan- and Hong Kong-based firms
have established manufacturing facilities in China to take advantage of the lower
production costs there. This move had been prompted by the heightened
competitive pressures from smaller manufacturers in South-East Asia, like
MMHB.

MMHB is relatively small in the global market, supplying less than 5% of world
demand compared to CMC’s 17%.

tseewie

原帖由 klse.8k 于 11-9-2006 09:20 AM 发表
Megan最新的文告：

Management confident on Group prospects ahead
With industry showing signs of recovery, and prudent capital management, Megan believes that it will improve its financial perfor ...

I could not find the above news. Could you provide the link?
thank you.

我歌且謠

原帖由 tseewie 于 11-9-2006 10:25 AM 发表


I could not find the above news. Could you provide the link?
thank you.

中国語を話すことができるか,tseewie.

cychew82

原帖由 tseewie 于 11-9-2006 10:25 AM 发表


I could not find the above news. Could you provide the link?
thank you.

http://www.meganmedia.com.my/ind ... =114&Itemid=176

klse.8k

[quote]原帖由 tseewie 于 11-9-2006 09:43 AM 发表
12年来他never sell any Megan share (in fact he bought 8.6 million Megan shares from MJC for RM18.2 million or RM 2.11 each)and have make Megan become a very big business.我同意他其实是the shareholder with biggest paper loss on Megan。我不认为他会作假账。我也不认为新董事 （Miss Alice Kuek Ai-Lee）会作假账，她1991年就join MJC，可说是pioneer了（应该是Yeo Wei Siong的左右手）。两个为公司spend 15 years and contrubute so much for company的人，我不认为他们会作假账，我对他们有信心。

你说的对，他们花了12年的时间才把Megan发展到今天的规模（占全球5%的市场）。

Megan真的是非常特殊的例子，公司从小小的规模变成十亿营业额的大公司（而且还是继续的成长），但是股价却越走越低。。。

这说明了什么？

这说明了，YEO是很厉害的商人，他只把精力用在发展公司而已。
（他已经达到了“手中有股票，心中无股价”的境界）

这说明了，“假账”的疑云是难于成立的。
（事实证明，他以12年的时间，把小小的公司变成十亿营业额的大公司）

这说明了，股市的确是“不可理喻的”。
（但是，总有“是非分明”的一天）

谢谢你的功课，我还读不完呢。。。
（再接再厉）

atm

请继续解释，解释。。。很精彩。。。

klse.8k

原帖由 tseewie 于 11-9-2006 09:55 AM 发表
http://www.atimes.com/bizasia/BF13Aa01.html

http://www.wallstraits.com/jungl ... id=ipomy_meganmedia

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/ ... ms.article.Article_ ...

今晚我花了好长的时间，终于读完这些了。。。
（谢谢你，tseewie，这些资料实在太好了！）

只要读完这些，就可以知道Megan的历史了。。。
（veriton，你可以从这里得到一些你想要的答案）

原帖由 klse.8k 于 11-9-2006 12:41 AM 发表
关于你提出的问题有时间我会回答。

我相信你是一个不简单的人物，如果没有记错的话，你曾经说过你的生意可以年赚百万，你也说过你有意思要把自己的公司拿去挂牌。
（当你说这句话的时候，别人不相信，我却相 ...

I should say thank you for 相信我, i believe many people make 百万 but that I feel great on my experience and challenge of making a company from zero to something today with all MNCs working with us, I have not yet cash out (this is tax free-MSC) as I would like to grow it further and to make it a Branded firm for Malaysia. If Yeo is a entrepreneur like myself, then I believe he is doing the right thing as Making a company grow is a challenging task than Making money, Money always come second for enterpreneur, (enterpreneur look at Long term), but money come first for "Businessman". If he is not faking the accounts, then I believe it is the best company to invest. Then, it is time to see when he want to stop expand. I understand that, as I have been investing money back to further grow the firm I run today and I know shareholders are waiting for me and I have to set a date for them, but if they are willing to wait, then the return will be BIG. So I hope that YEO is a good entrepreneur. (The issue here is I am not sure if he has tell press or shareholders about his plan, why keep expanding, why keep borrowing, and when does he want to stop. I believe alot of good entrepreneur will do that as I have seen many)

原帖由 klse.8k 于 11-9-2006 12:41 AM 发表
我看好megan，而你却是不看好它的人
你一直说megan会变成comsa，所以我就去研究comsa

I have a feeling on it on Malaysian firm, many of them are just looking at short term and try to cheat share holders, -- CHINESE. Look at indian firm today for example Infosys, and look at Mesiniaga. What is the differences? Look at SAP (german), look at Karensoft. What is the different?? Malaysian businessman only think that I cash out first, money into my pocket. Foreigner are, I will expand the firm, make sure profit grow double (debt remain same or reduce), which make the owner 10-20times richer (in term of market cap) when it grow double every year.

原帖由 klse.8k 于 11-9-2006 12:41 AM 发表
你今天没有兴趣去研究Megan，那是因为你不是它的小股东。
（tseewie的功课就做得很好，因为他也是小股东，所以我也从中得益了，这就是所谓的交流）

I would like to research on it, but as I am not good in these research (only know abit of accounting, cash flow which learn from my accountant),so I decided it is best for Good people like yourself and tseewie, and it will be good if I raised some questions for yourself to think about it, maybe I will be the next big investors for Megan, who knows?

原帖由 klse.8k 于 11-9-2006 10:44 PM 发表


今晚我花了好长的时间，终于读完这些了。。。
（谢谢你，tseewie，这些资料实在太好了！）

只要读完这些，就可以知道Megan的历史了。。。
（veriton，你可以从这里得到一些你想要的答案）

Thank you, I am looking at it now

I just read a article
http://announcements.bursamalays ... FILE/attachment.doc

MEGAN bought MJCS for around RM97mil, however, MJCS owe around RM153 and only make around RM14mil per year. It looks to me a wrong buy as it means they spend  RM150mil to buy a company which only make RM14mil, this is a bad investment as If you use RM150mil to buy a building near KLCC, your return is more than 10% on rental beside capital appreciation. Also, MJCS major income are from CDs

Correct me if I am wrong?

8years

this show very clear small capital control big money. then use power to borrow more money, and most of the money will go into boss pocket. He no need sell any share, because the return on the % of the borrowing(after borrow big money to buy machine or company) is bigger than total value of the share he own in the market. He do not sell any share make all stupid believe he is honest to company and he is bigger lost if company not good. To make better financial report is because want to borrow more money from Bank to had more hidden money into his own pocket without taxation. he will never care share price anymore cause that is not important. Important is how much money he can borrow from bank and to spend it using his special way to buy machine.

tseewie

我想，Megan是一个很有趣的case study，我会从中学习非常有用的股票实战经验。大家一起研究吧。。。

Harimau 应该有说过，我们要了解Megan的对手，了解它所处的industry。读它对手的年报，我们就可知道一条DVDR的manufacturing line，是不是需要RM２３M。。

１。CMC Magnetics Corporation (“CMC”, Largest OSM product manufacturer in the world，Taiwanese company)

http://www.cmcdisc.com/index.htm
中環


２。Ritek Corporation (“Ritek”, Second largest OSM product manufacturer in the world, Taiwanese company)

http://www.ritek.com


３。 Prodisc Technology (“Prodisc”, One of the top 5 OSM product manufacturers in the world, Taiwanese company)

http://www.prodisc.com.tw/index.html
精碟


4. Moser Baer (One of the top 5 OSM product manufacturers in the world, Indian company)
http://www.moserbaer.com/

tseewie

在2003年时，很多Research House都看好Megan，认为Megan发展得很好，股价又便宜 （PE是六到七之间）。可是，现在我想没有Research House看好Megan。Megan现在没发展吗？不会啊，Megan发展得越来越大，好像没有停下发展的意思。Megan现在股价不便宜吗？不会啊，Megan的股价越来越便宜了（Megan的股价是RM0.58,EPS of FY2006 is RM0.295, PE=1.97, I estimate EPS of FY2007 will be RM0.40, PE=1.45),多便宜啊！

股价是不合理的。话说回来，如果我是在２００３年的价钱买的Megan，看着股价越走越低，will I lose my patience? Will I continue to invest in Megan? I think I will lose my patience, I don't think I will continue to invest in Megan. So, I think some of the forummers'reaction to Megan is understandable, and I respect klse.8k's patience.

我想Megan的announcement是好消息。Hoping Megan "will adopt a prudent financial management policy going forward and will seek to reduce its leverage and continue to maintain a high degree of liquidity"，也希望"是非分明”的那一天，快点到来 ：）

psrngurney

個人認為megan最大的問題是shareholder太多了！公司沒有理由把血汗賺來的錢都分出去！

如果是你（老板）你會把血汗賺來的錢都分出去嗎？

＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊
本來我看cari高手們看壞時認為很多人會賣出的，可是實事是越多人買進！

[ 本帖最后由 psrngurney 于 12-9-2006 10:08 AM 编辑 ]

tseewie

原帖由 psrngurney 于 12-9-2006 10:04 AM 发表
個人認為megan最大的問題是shareholder太多了！公司沒有理由把血汗賺來的錢都分出去！

如果是你（老板）你會把血汗賺來的錢都分出去嗎？

＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊
本來我看cari高手們看 ...

你真的认为Cari论坛的影响力这么大吗？有很多Forummer买MEGAN的股票吗？不如你开个thread，让有买MEGAN股票的Forummer to cast vote，看一下有 how many Megan shareholder here? 我是认真的 ：）

psrngurney

原帖由 tseewie 于 12-9-2006 10:17 AM 发表
你真的认为Cari论坛的影响力这么大吗？有很多Forummer买MEGAN的股票吗？不如你开个thread，让有买MEGAN股票的Forummer to cast vote，看一下有 how many Megan shareholder here? 我是认真的 ：）

從年報那邊我們可以看到有多少shareholder！

請你自己去找看。

1~6月份的bursa annoucements那邊有。

tseewie

原帖由 psrngurney 于 12-9-2006 10:23 AM 发表

從年報那邊我們可以看到有多少shareholder！

請你自己去找看。

1~6月份的bursa annoucements那邊有。

I mean how many Cari forummer here are Megan shareholder..


To better understand CD-R and DVD-R and other general knowledge:
http://www.itl.nist.gov/div895/c ... ndHandlingGuide.pdf

[ 本帖最后由 tseewie 于 12-9-2006 04:53 PM 编辑 ]

今天涨了0。03 当那么多人不看好它，怎么却涨了？！有哪位大大知道为什么吗？有人刻意炒起？从今天的buyer,seller，有谁看得出吗？如果没记错，adrian大大好像很厉害看这个。。

茶叶

原帖由 tseewie 于 10-9-2006 04:37 PM 发表
3. I think Megan Chairman sells share because he needs money and not because any conspiracy, because he has been selling share since 2002. And I do not think he received any commission because buying machine. If not, he would not need to sell his share.

23-05-2002: Megan Media executive chairman cuts stake
By Joseph Chin, 11.15am
Megan Media Holdings Bhd executive chairman Datuk Mohd Adam Che Harun reduced his shareholding in the company after disposing of a 0.71 per cent stake comprising 500,000 shares.
According to a filing to the KLSE, he sold the shares in the open market on May 16.
After the disposal, his stake has been reduced to 17.53 per cent comprising 12.31 million shares.
The share price rose one sen to RM2.88 on that day.

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/ ... ticle.Article_12825
...

how willthe chairman fun his company after selling his share? Director loan?

茶叶

原帖由 klse.8k 于 9-9-2006 02:45 PM 发表


Megan刚刚公布最新的Audited Account，针对Other receivables，里面已经有详细的说明，我简单的转述如下：

第33页7.1和7.3项目：

Other receivables的详情如下：

213.61m是购买新机器的定金。
22.8 ...

这报告是在哪里拿到的？？