Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd (MPEL)

葉芬

1 December 2009 18:30
20°C
Robust gaming growth ends Macau 's trough - GDP rises 8.2 pct         Print         E-mail
macau_gdp.jpgMacau, China, 01 Dec -With gaming gross revenues surging by 22.3 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of this year, Macau saw its GDP expand by 8.2 percent in the period, putting an end to the economic downturn in the previous three quarters, Xinhua reported on Monday, quoating figures released by the Statistics and Census Service.

Being the only place in China where gambling is legal, Macau's gaming sector generated a total of 31.8 billion patacas in gross revenues in the third quarter of this year, and 83.2 billion patacas in the first three quarters, according to figures from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.

The gaming revenues for the third quarter of this year were the highest quarterly revenues ever recorded in Macau .

Macau's casinos pay 35 percent of their gross receipts as direct gaming taxes to the government, which accounts for about 70 percent of the local government's total revenues.

The monthly gross gaming revenues for next year are expected to reach eight billion patacas, Secretary for Economy and Finance Francis Tam Pak Yuen said last month. He made the remark when presenting the government's 2010 budget bill to local legislature.

The gaming sector saw its monthly gross revenues exceed 10 billion patacas in August, September and October this year.

Tam also said that the government's direct gaming tax income was expected to reach 33.8 billion patacas for the whole of next year.

Aside from gaming revenues, other major GDP components registered mixed results in the third quarter.

Private consumption expenditure dropped by 1.2 percent in the period, moderating from the 2.1 percent decrease in the previous quarter, and household final consumption expenditure in the domestic market fell marginally by 0.1 percent, according to the figures released by the Statistics and Census Service on Monday.

Total government investment expanded by 89.3 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, in which construction investment surged by 145.5 percent, while that of equipment went down by 5.6 percent. Integrating data of both sectors, decline of the overall construction investment widened further from 32.4 percent in the second quarter to 48.5 percent in the third quarter.

However, Macau's gross fixed capital formation contracted by 41.3 percent, slackening further from the 30.3 percent decrease in the second quarter, and total private investment also shrank by 46.1 percent, with construction and equipment investment decreasing by 54.2 percent and 14.4 percent, respectively.

Meanwhile The Macau Post said today that Macau 's overall exports of services grew by 15.8 percent year-on-year, putting an end to the deceleration for three consecutive quarters since the fourth quarter of last year, while the decline of imports of services also narrowed noticeably from 22.4 percent in the second quarter this year to 7.2 percent in the period.

(MacauNews)

葉芬

也許也許 沒有機會買到4元的MPEL了。。
看今晚的情形怎樣，要是股價向上走，我會就此買進。

victan

还没放，先看看这2天的走势如何再决定。

葉芬

原帖由 victan 于 1-12-2009 09:35 PM 发表
还没放，先看看这2天的走势如何再决定。

Pre-Market 價錢不錯。
股價已上了1毛多。

tankangkai

今晚尝试下600@4.23!!

葉芬

原帖由 tankangkai 于 1-12-2009 10:21 PM 发表
今晚尝试下600@4.23!!

做什么我會這么說 也許價錢不會Hit4元。。
因為那天有Hit到上次的低點 4.04 ，所以非常有可能價錢就是這樣就開始向上了。。

我今晚會見情形再做決定。

MonteCarlo88

原帖由 葉芬 于 1-12-2009 10:17 PM 发表




Pre-Market 價錢不錯。
股價已上了1毛多。

有Pre-Market的价钱的啊?
哪里有得看？Pre-Market 是怎么来的？

葉芬

原帖由 MonteCarlo88 于 1-12-2009 10:47 PM 发表


有Pre-Market的价钱的啊?
哪里有得看？Pre-Market 是怎么来的？

http://quotes.nasdaq.com/asp/MasterDataEntry.asp?page=Pre-Market

Google Finance 也有。。。


Pre-Market 是還未開市之前的買賣。
我們這里的TradingPlatform不能做買賣，要有美國的TradingPlatform的才能做買賣。

AfterHours的也一樣。

[ 本帖最后由 葉芬 于 1-12-2009 10:56 PM 编辑 ]

MonteCarlo88

原帖由 葉芬 于 1-12-2009 10:54 PM 发表



http://quotes.nasdaq.com/asp/MasterDataEntry.asp?page=Pre-Market

Google Finance 也有。。。


Pre-Market 是還未開市之前的買賣。
我們這里的TradingPlatform不能做買賣，要有美國的TradingPlatfo ...

还是不他明白。。。
Pre-Market是几点开始的？是真实的啊？

葉芬

原帖由 MonteCarlo88 于 1-12-2009 11:23 PM 发表



还是不他明白。。。
Pre-Market是几点开始的？是真实的啊？

去Google Search。。 打進 Pre-Market or After Hours 。。。 那里就有很詳細的解釋了。。

葉芬

4.50 啦。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。

tradelearner

最高4.54，收在4.53
看来4的日子跑了。。。

葉芬

原帖由 tradelearner 于 2-12-2009 09:41 AM 发表
最高4.54，收在4.53
看来4的日子跑了。。。

要是有機會下到4.1多至4.2 就買進了。
不能再等4元。看圖來說那天已經下跌到之前的低點。


我的2000Units還未買完，才進了600Units @ 4.18
再不是 4.50 都要進了。。

[ 本帖最后由 葉芬 于 2-12-2009 09:49 AM 编辑 ]

葉芬

原帖由 tankangkai 于 1-12-2009 10:21 PM 发表
今晚尝试下600@4.23!!

4.23 沒份了。。

4.53 就Ok 。。.

葉芬

轉帖：From Google Finance Discussions Board

不錯的分析。。。


I wouldn't say we are on the very of a big run for casino stocks just
yet - we may not see MPEL revisit $8 for at least another 2-3 months,
unless something extraordinary occurs.  But taking profits on this run
is probably not a good idea, seeing as to how a bullish pattern has
began to develop with MPEL - it just picked up a well-deserved upgrade
by Morgan Stanley and can get an additional boost once the Macau
numbers are out.  Let's not forget the severe beating this stock has
taken in the past 2 months - it's become a shorter's dream and the
reality is that tables are turning.  Those who short this stock today
are going to help the longs see unusually large gains in the pps due
to the squeeze they will experience. I wouldn't consider selling this
stock at anything below $6.  This is an opportunity to accumulate MPEL
below its book value - don't let the day-to-day fluctuations fool you,
because you'll get caught guessing, which is risky for obvious
reasons.

Lastly, 6% up today does not necessarily mean a few percent back down
tomorrow.  There is a reason the stock has incited an appetite to be
bought at these prices.  Then again, I could be wrong. This market is
not rational and can be easily manipulated.

GLTA
MPEL - strong buy!!!

On Dec 1, 3:49 pm

tankangkai

原帖由 葉芬 于 2-12-2009 09:51 AM 发表



4.23 沒份了。。

4.53 就Ok 。。.

哎呀，买不到了哦

葉芬

2 December 2009
Macau Gaming
November Gaming Revenue – Another Very Strong Month
 November: +54% Growth YoY — According to our channel checks, Macau total
gaming revenue reached MOP~11.7bn in November, just below the record high
set in October of MOP~12.2bn. We believe that Macau had a lucky month with
Hold on average >3.3%. Volumes however were still impressive with VIP Rollings
+55% YoY.
 MPEL’s COD Mass Mkt Gains Share — According to our channel checks, the Mass
market was down by 7% in November but MPEL gained 24% MoM or approx MOP
46mn. MPEL said on the 3Q conference call that the Hyatt will be fully open by
end 2009 (currently only 400 of 800 open).
 SJM – Only Getting Stronger — SJM’s hold normalized in November which helped
the group’s total market share but November was still SJM’s highest market share
(~32%) in 2 years. SJM’s average VIP Rollings for October and November (MOP
~81bn) are now approximately double what they were a year ago and is equivalent
to the VIP Rollings of Wynn and Galaxy combined. SJM’s latest product, Oceanus
(265 Mass Mkt Tables), is also still due by the end of the year but we would not be
surprised for it to be opened just prior to CNY.
 Wynn Struggling — While most operators suffered in mass revenues in November,
the biggest loser in the mass market was Wynn (-20% MoM) as the shift to Cotai
from the Peninsula continues. Wynn’s total market share fell to its lowest ever
level in November at 12.5% according to our channel checks having peaked at
18% in September 2008.
 China Approves Macau Land Reclamation — The Chinese government has
approved the Macau government’s request to increase the size of its territory by
12 percent through land reclamation. According to the Macao Daily the sites for
the reclaimed land will be a total of 361.65 hectares. Site A will be at the Oriental
Pearl district (for residential, school and potentially convention space), Area B -
south of MGM Grand and OneCentral (for public facilities, road expansion and
green areas) and Areas C, D and E - northern coast of Taipa (for residential, light
rail and road expansion). The government stated in 2006 that no casinos and lowdensity
residential development projects will be built on the reclaimed land.
 Buy Macau — We are buyers of the pure Macau names in Galaxy (0027.HK, 1H,
TP HK$4.00), SJM (0880.HK, 1M, TP HK$5.10) and MPEL (MPEL.O, 1M, TP
US$6.60), Melco (0200.HK, 1M, TP HK$7.50).

[ 本帖最后由 葉芬 于 2-12-2009 09:30 PM 编辑 ]

葉芬

Melco Crown Entertainment
(MPEL.O; US$5.19; 1M)

Valuation
Our US$6.60 target price is derived by assigning equal weights to the equity
values derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology and a
DCF-based valuation methodology. Our SOTP valuation yields a US$6.33/share
equity value. We value both Altira and City of Dreams at 12x 2010E EV/EBITDA,
which is the average multiple for global peers (previously 10x 2010E
EV/EBITDA). We value the hotel components on a per-room basis. Its small
retail space is valued on a 6.5% capitalization rate while its City of Dreams
serviced apartment is valued on NPV.
Our DCF methodology yields a US$6.93/share equity value, based on a
weighted average cost of capital of 8% and a long-term growth rate of 2%. The
WACC is derived from a cost of equity of 10% and an after-tax cost of debt of
4%. The cost of equity is based on an expected market return of 10%,
including a 2% risk-free rate based on current borrowing costs and a beta of 1.
The after-tax cost of debt is based on the group's current effective borrowing
rate of 5% and an effective tax rate of 12%. Using our WACC assumption and
growth rate we apply a 17x multiple to our terminal value

Risks
We rate Melco Crown shares Medium Risk, as opposed to the Speculative
rating assigned by our quantitative risk-rating system, considering the strength
of MPEL's balance sheet post its equity offering and its improved product mix
of casinos with the opening of City of Dreams. Key downside risks that could
impede the shares from reaching our target price include: 1) Operational
(escalating construction and labor costs), 2) Execution, and 3) Competitive
threats from gaming facilities opening in the rest of the region. Upside risks
include: 1) Chinese government's policy towards Macau, 2) If visa restrictions
are relaxed and more mainland Chinese people are allowed to travel to Macau
more often, then gaming revenue will likely grow faster than we anticipate. In
addition, theoretical win rates depend on a variety of factors, and the "luck"
factor could go for or against the group.

葉芬

別跑這樣快。。。。


MPEL   

4.53 0.00 (0.00%)
Pre-market: 4.60 +0.07 (1.55%)
Dec 2, 8:37AM EST

葉芬

原帖由 tankangkai 于 2-12-2009 07:57 PM 发表


哎呀，买不到了哦

今晚我會買進了。。。
剛剛我放出來的Macau Report 是 Macau Gaming
November Gaming Revenue – Another Very Strong Month

再接下來。。就是我們華人的農歷新年。。

[ 本帖最后由 葉芬 于 2-12-2009 09:53 PM 编辑 ]