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发表于 3-3-2009 01:41 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 16-2-2009 11:13 PM
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From: Dave Leaver
Sent: Mon 2/16/2009 8:33 AM
Subject: HOT AIR BALLOON...
HOT AIR BALLOON
The G-7 meeting convened without any earth shattering statements made or any bold, decisive actions taken and the greenback benefited as investors flocked into safety....In a nervous start to the week, EUR/USD zipped down from 1.2865 to 1.2726 and GBP/USD once again ran the gamut failing from 1.4360 to 1.4150.....Meanwhile, an anemic Japanese GDP number (-12.7%) hit the wires but USD/JPY barely budged as the pair failed to overcome the key 92.25-50 region and actually slipped down towards 91.50....For the most part, not much was expected from the meeting as is usually the case with these types of events but these certainly aren't "usual times"...However as evidenced by the Geithner testimony last week, the market has displayed little patience when it comes to vague rhetoric and empty promises...As a result, the carry trade and equity markets remain vulnerable and the USD cautiously bid due to its safe haven status...So in a nutshell, there was enough verbal sparring at the G-7 meeting to fill up a hot air balloon but now the key question remains: Will that balloon burst over the coming weeks and months ahead ? Unfortunately, we expect some form of a crash landing to come and consequently a stronger USD to hopefully ease the fall
FLOWS
· Talk of option players bidding at 1.2720-00 with stops right below ..Macro players said to be offering around 1.2840
· Reports of Japanese exporters selling on 92 handle with macro types buying on dips near 91.60...Real money buyers for ECB fix..System stops said to be below 91.20
· Supposed technical stops over 1.2550 and corporate buyers at 1.2425-00
· Alleged GBP/USD stops under 1.4130 for corporate and prop accounts
FLAVOR OF THE DAY
· 200 hour moving average at 1.2875
· 55 hour moving average at 1.2835
· Psychological support/pivot at 1.2700
· Friday's close was 1.2860
THE ONE TO WATCH
We think selling EUR/USD into 1.2825-50 with a 1.2900 stop and 1.2625 is a good application of proper risk/reward
Dave Leaver |
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发表于 23-1-2009 11:33 AM
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我把一些pair的讨论帖置顶
希望大家好好利用这些好贴来讨论特定的pair或当日预测 |
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楼主 |
发表于 23-1-2009 11:39 AM
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THE BRITISH OUNCE?
With all the pressure on it, and negative sentiment on the rise, the British Pound may be headed toward being called “The Ounce”. While this is said in jest, the problems facing the currency and the country are very real and very serious. Following sterling's heavy fall against the euro and the Usd over the last three days, global leaders have expressed concerns over the exchange rate and proposed that the BoE should do more to support the currency. An anonymous source within the G7 revealed yesterday that sterling weakness will be on the agenda of the next G7 meeting where the UK is likely to come under pressure to support the pound in a bid to assist exporters from the other member nations. All the G7 talk wasn’t sufficient to prevent the GBP from breaking back down. Gbp/usd is lower by about 200 points from its 1.3958 NY close.
Yesterday ,U.S. equities had a nice rebound(about +4%) after the selloff the previous session. The rebound was led by the financials which were up about 15%.The
Nikkeiwas up about 1%, as were European markets, up about 1% at the moment. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open. Exchange rates are becoming a target of monetary policy - we are beginning to see G10 countries discuss exchange rates explicitly as a policy issue. What’s different with the “verbal interventions” of late is how explicit and direct the comments are from the global leaders. Today we will keep an eye on equities and commodities, and an ear open for more intervention type statements.
FLOWS
·
Gbp selling still prevalent
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Usd/cad buying through 1.2625 seeing good follow through
·
Macro names sellers of Eur/usd above 1.3000
FLAVOR OF THE DAY
·
Gbp still under pressure
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Verbal intervention with newfound directness.
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Oil inventories @ 11am EST will be monitored
ONE TO WATCH
1.3891 is the 55 hour moving average in Gbp/usd, this line has been respected several times of late. Selling into that level(1.3880-95),with a stop above 1.3930, and targeting 1.3820 could be a play.
Anthony Piccolo
Senior Currency Trader
GAIN/Capital Group LLC
四面楚歌的英镑逐渐被戏称为”英盎”，的确，英国货币与经济正面临着非常严峻的处境。但是，在连续三天相对欧元与美元大跌后，全球领导阶层已开始放话干预，表示英镑的疲软将是下次G7会议的议题之一，届时英国可能面临压力支持英镑，以利其它国家的出口业。然而，这种口头干预仍不足以防止英镑继续下跌，GBPUSD隔夜再从昨日纽约盘收盘的1.3958下跌了大约200点。
在金融股领军下，美股昨日上涨了大约4%，日经指数与欧股隔夜也上升了大约1%，美股目前看来可望开低。汇率已逐渐变成货币政策的的目标，我们已看到G10国家公开谈论汇率议题，与全球领袖近日的口头干预不同处，在于后者的开宗明义与直接性。今日我们将留意股市动态与商品，并继续追踪干预性的言辞。
汇市动向
¨
英镑卖压仍大
¨
USDCAD上破1.2625的买气延续
¨
基本面业者于1.30上方放空EURUSD
今日分析
¨
GBP卖压仍大
¨
口头干预将决定市场方向
¨
11时石油库存将受关注
关注焦点
1.3891是GBPUSD的55小时均线，这条线在近日形成阻力，可于1.3880-95放空，止损于1.3930上方，目标1.3820。 |
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发表于 23-1-2009 11:39 AM
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最近的走勢很容易入場，而且range不大，適合套小利。 |
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发表于 23-1-2009 09:29 PM
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发表于 23-1-2009 10:53 PM
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发表于 1-2-2009 07:04 PM
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请问polis兄所说的long何short是什么意思？
原谅小弟的小问题，小弟不知。 |
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发表于 2-2-2009 06:47 AM
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发表于 2-2-2009 09:34 AM
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原帖由 Boon_head 于 3-12-2008 02:17 PM 发表 
我的chart只是用SMA ...然后跟着Stochastic...接着EMA
先用SMA看sideway....
如果sideway达到你的要求.....再看EMA..
如果EMA indicates在lowest point...你可以进场....(当然有很多因素你要自己去观察 ...
Boon Head大大，想问您，SMA,EMA 是怎样用的呢？？？它们之间有什么关系呢？您可以用图案来解释吗？对不起，原量小小的要求。。。 |
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发表于 2-2-2009 11:13 AM
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我回来了。。。
今天是开工的第一天，祝大家旗开得胜
请多多请教小弟。。。。。。哈哈哈 |
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发表于 2-2-2009 12:15 PM
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发表于 4-2-2009 01:53 PM
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怎么无人在讨论？？？ 这里好像一片死气。。。。  |
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发表于 4-2-2009 02:51 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 4-2-2009 08:53 PM
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大雪持续笼罩伦敦，美国本身也正经历另一个冬季风暴，汇市美元多头则渐渐叫寒（至少到目前来说）。EURUSD上下于1.2800-1.2915之间震荡，USDJPY也类似（89.20-90.10）。换句话说，EURJPY拿不定主意，交易区间介于114.50-116.20。在昨日的报告中，我们提及一些底部的期权在理论上可于未来数日/数周导引价格下跌，然而，在短期间，EURUSD与GBPUSD(甚至是EURJPY)，都展开了空头回补，美元多头期盼的漂亮雪花也转成雨水。鉴于这些大型期权将于周末之前到期（大部分是周四上午10时），如果市场今日行情变化与昨日类似，我们也不会感到讶异。所以，系好安全带吧，市场将展开剧烈的波动。在数据方面，今日只有10时的待成交房屋销量，但市场仍可能剧烈波动。
汇市动向
¨ 东欧与其它半官方单位于1.2850-1.2885卖出EURUSD，亚洲于1.2820买入，短线技术止损位于1.2790下方
¨ 基本面业者看来在1.2420-40买入USDCAD
¨ 美国业者于1.4200破位买入GBPUSD
¨ 外销业者据称于90.00-10卖出USDJPY
今日分析
¨ 55小时均线为1.2805
¨ 200小时均线为1.2990
¨ 回檔低位1.2785-75
¨ 1.2760为上周低点
关注焦点
今日市场可能震荡更剧烈，不过1.2980-1.3000是卖出EURUSD的好价位，可置止损于1.30500上方，目标为1.2625。这是给有耐心人士的交易策略。 |
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发表于 5-2-2009 01:39 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 5-2-2009 07:19 PM
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发表于 5-2-2009 09:45 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 5-2-2009 10:00 PM
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Sent: Thursday, February 05, 2009 8:13 AM
To: CS Relationship Managers; Flow Desk; Brian Dolan; Jacob Oubina; Todd Gordon
Subject: STOP THE PRESSES...
STOP THE PRESSES
As the market chatter centered upon stop losses below 1.2800 in EUR/USD and 1.4400 in GBP/USD (not to mention under .6400 in AUD/USD), the short term market once again got behooved on false breaks…Both EUR/USD (1.2793) and GBP/USD (1.4365) provided some serious head fakes while AUD/USD paid no mind to play the stop loss game (.6401 low)….With the BoE and ECB due to make their rate decisions this morning, it shouldn’t come as that big of a surprise that a plethora of central banks (i.e. the usual suspects) were seen in the market selling USD’s aggressively…And now that the BoE has cut 50 basis points (as expected) and the ECB has kept rates steady (as expected) perhaps the tide will finally turn for the greenback since most of the USD selling may already be factored in….We still have US Initial Jobless Claims and Canadian Ivey due out today and of course tomorrow’s major US NFP Report so look for continuous action over the next few days
FLOWS
· Talk of Eastern Europe selling EUR/USD again with Asian real money buying near 1.2800
· Supposed exporter sellers around 90.00 area in USD/JPY as technical accounts bought the break..Reserve mangers said to be seen buying around 89.35
· Allegedly Middle Eastern accounts trying to sell NZD/USD around .5150
· Macro names reportedly bought GBP/JPY post Boe and option names aggressively bought EUR/GBP downside puts..German names been buying GBP/USD since the London morning
FLAVOR OF THE DAY
· 55 hour moving average at 1.2901
· London high was 1.2905
· 1.2793 was the Asian low
· 1.2935 was yesterday’s high
THE ONE TO WATCH
We look for 1.2925-50 to still be key for the EUR/USD on the topside and will watch 1.2785-50 for the downside..Look for stop losses on both sides of the market with choppy conditions continuing to dominate.. As far as fresh trade ideas go selling EUR/USD at 1.2845-50 with a 1.2900 stop and 1.2760 objective seems reasonable for a short term punt
Dave Leaver |
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发表于 5-2-2009 10:33 PM
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