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发表于 12-8-2008 07:30 PM
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原帖由 弹煮 于 12-8-2008 09:31 AM 发表 
酱容易被你捉到它的势，郭鹤年岂不是很没面子？ 开玩笑
BDI需求下降，油价跌都救不鸟它。 |
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发表于 12-8-2008 08:11 PM
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发表于 12-8-2008 10:34 PM
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回复 1162# 大理石 的帖子
酱辛苦？
劝你卖掉算了...
如果你买不多的话
何必搞到自己精神衰弱... |
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发表于 12-8-2008 10:52 PM
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回复 1165# 四伯爽 的帖子
不错......."何必搞到自己精神衰弱..."......... |
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发表于 13-8-2008 08:24 AM
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12 August 2008
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -63 6992
Spot Rates | | BCI | (Cape index) | BPI | (Panamax index) | BSI | (Supramax index) | | INDEX | | 10695 | +114 | 6178 | -197 | 4307 | -82 | | SPOT 4 TCE AVG | (USD) | 116743 | +1523 | 49653 | -1596 | 45040 | -853 | | YESTERDAY | (USD) | 115220 | | 51249 | | 45893 | | | YEAR AGO | (USD) | 112971 | | 57193 | | 50016 |
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发表于 13-8-2008 08:27 AM
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发表于 13-8-2008 10:44 AM
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发表于 13-8-2008 10:58 AM
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发表于 13-8-2008 11:03 AM
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可省燃油成本1至4%‧貨輪運輸業擬推燃油效率政策
大馬財經 2008-08-12 18:23
（吉隆坡）貨輪運輸業（除了岸外供應油輪）面對偏高船用燃料油問題，不過相關業者計劃推出燃油效率政策，料將可節省燃油成本1至4%，惟執行效率仍是主要關鍵。
船用燃料油價格
暴漲逾100%
亞歐美研究指出，在國際燃油價格不斷高漲下，令船用燃油價也不斷暴漲，目前船用燃料油按年已暴漲超過100%至每公噸700美元，超越原油價的漲幅67%。由於船用燃料油價佔整個船運業營運成本50至60%（根據類型與服務類型），目前大型貨輪料每天需要使用50至90公噸船用燃料油，至700TEU集裝箱船則每天使用275公噸船用燃料油，料將會受到衝擊。
“由於石油天然氣岸外供應油輪的燃油成本由顧客承擔，而中長期租用金穩定，因此相對之下，貨輪運輸業者盈利直接受到船用燃料油價格影響，加上租用合約也偏短期與租金浮動，因此油價調漲對他們衝擊很大。”
因此，大馬海事機构（MIMA）將舉辦“高油價與對運輸業的影響：觀望充滿挑戰的海洋”研討會，除了探討目前運輸領域面臨成本揚高問題，包括船用燃料油、維修與維護工作成本外，同時也討論環境營運壓力與航海員工缺乏課題。
另一方面，目前許多運輸業者也開始施行燃油效率政策，包括從燃油效率管理至提高引擎操作與維修、提高船體與螺旋槳性能、提高航海效率等，並增設燃油調整附加費（BAF）與緊急燃油附加費（EBF）在租用合約，投資科技來提高盈利表現，料這樣初步可節省燃油費1至4%。
分析員強調，這項燃油效率政策是不錯概念，不過執行效率仍是關鍵。而在科技方面較容易完成目標，不過相對投資可能需要偏高成本。因此維持石油天然氣領域“加碼”評級。
油輪改造陸續交貨
乾貨運輸費有下滑風險
儘管目前波羅的海指數（BFI）上攀至11793點高水平，不過在許多新船交貨與中國經濟放緩等隱憂下，料乾貨運輸費有下滑風險，聯昌研究“減碼”乾貨運輸業，不過仍對經濟活動蓬勃的油輪業維持“中和”評級。
國際船務握穩定遠期訂單
同時，聯昌看好國際船務（MISC,3816,主板貿服組）勝於大馬散裝貨運（MAYBULK,5077,主板貿服組），主要是前者擁有穩定的遠期訂單，加上在今年杪完成收購拉慕尼亞（RAMUNIA,7206,二板貿服組）計劃後，料可大幅增加船隻裝配產能，提高岸外領域表現；後者則面臨未來派息減少的困擾。
聯昌表示。由於中國經濟走緩將減少對原產品的需求，加上未來半年油船改造成貨輪的龐大訂單可能壓縮供應量，因此乾貨領域風險可能比市場普遍預測的來得高，運輸費甚至已有下滑跡象。
“儘管市場預測在奧運後後工廠復工可能會讓船運業回溫，不過投資者應該提早離場，因為未來6個月油輪改造活動陸續交貨，而市場焦煤供應短缺影響中國的鋼鐵製造業，加上中國經濟成長放慢，這些都是主要利空。”
此外，儘管澳洲未來半年鐵礦輸出量將提高，不過仍胥視從油輪改造至礦砂船（VLOC）的進度。因此，乾貨運輸率在未來半年將會面對太多船隻供應及需求下滑雙重打擊。一旦明年下半年有更多新船交貨，料將會進一步拉低運輸費。
雖然如此，聯昌仍上調2008年波羅的海指數從8000至8500點，不過卻下調2009年預測從7000點至6000點，2010年則進一步從5500點至3000點。重估催化劑包括下半年新船交貨及改造訂單能真正刺激供應，及中國原產產品進口成長下滑。
國際船務前景看好
大馬散裝貨運看淡
分析員仍看好油輪運輸業，儘管明年也一樣面對更多新船交貨利空，不過油管改造與油氣生產活動持續提高下，料仍可維持高價位。
聯昌研究建議對貨櫃市場或乾貨市場有顧慮的投資者可轉追捧國際船務。由於此公司未來兩年盈利維持穩健，擁有高週息率與偏高遠期訂單，因此維持目標價10令吉與“中和”評級。
“儘管貨櫃運輸與化學運輸等盈利可能受到衝擊，不過料油輪貨運業務可彌補利空，一旦在今年杪完成收購拉慕尼亞（RAMUNIA,7206,二板貿服組）計劃，料未來可大幅提高盈利空間。”
至於大馬散裝貨運則從“短線脫售”下調至“跑輸大市”。目標價也下滑至3令吉，主要是看淡乾貨市場前景。
星洲日報／財經‧2008.08.12
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/15668 |
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发表于 14-8-2008 08:22 AM
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13 August 2008
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +105 7097
Spot Rates | | BCI | (Cape index) | BPI | (Panamax index) | BSI | (Supramax index) | | INDEX | | 11256 | +561 | 6094 | -84 | 4227 | -80 | | SPOT 4 TCE AVG | (USD) | 123959 | +7216 | 48959 | -694 | 44195 | -845 | | YESTERDAY | (USD) | 116743 | | 49653 | | 45040 | | | YEAR AGO | (USD) | 115788 | | 57894 | | 50060 |
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发表于 14-8-2008 08:39 AM
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发表于 14-8-2008 09:10 AM
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原帖由 弹煮 于 28-7-2008 08:43 PM 发表
现在BDI又是多少了？ |
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发表于 14-8-2008 09:43 AM
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发表于 14-8-2008 10:02 AM
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回复 1175# sakindo 的帖子
bloomberg
又或者你去en.stockq.org , 点击Baltic Dry Index就会带你过去的了。 |
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发表于 14-8-2008 10:44 AM
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发表于 14-8-2008 10:47 AM
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回复 1177# 四伯爽 的帖子
即使股价下跌，收入若是少了，派息自然少了，周息率DY可能会保持在一个水平。 |
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发表于 14-8-2008 08:50 PM
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原帖由 四伯爽 于 14-8-2008 10:44 AM 发表
应该不会跌到2.50吧
这样它的DY嘛很高 ？  |
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发表于 15-8-2008 08:32 AM
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14 August 2008
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +323 7420
Spot Rates | | BCI | (Cape index) | BPI | (Panamax index) | BSI | (Supramax index) | | INDEX | | 12240 | +984 | 6248 | +154 | 4200 | -27 | | SPOT 4 TCE AVG | (USD) | 135606 | +11647 | 50172 | +1213 | 43919 | -276 | | YESTERDAY | (USD) | 123959 | | 48959 | | 44195 | | | YEAR AGO | (USD) | 118425 | | 58606 | | 50204 |
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发表于 15-8-2008 10:21 AM
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发表于 16-8-2008 11:15 PM
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MISC gets ready for buying opportunity
By Kamarul Yunus and Roziana Hamsawi
Published: 2008/08/16
The LNG carrier may acquire companies that do not survive the shipping slump if the price is cheap and reasonable enough, says its chief
MISC Bhd, the world's largest carrier of liquefied natural gas (LNG), is ready to face the anticipated slowdown in the shipping industry and may consider acquiring companies that encounter difficulties.
The group has been putting in place various initiatives aimed at cutting operating cost by some 20 per cent and making it leaner and more efficient.
"Recession is coming. Normality has to take place and, in this process, there are bound to be survivors and those who get hurt.
"We are lucky in the sense that, within MISC, we have for the last three years prepared ourselves for the downturn by enhancing our resilience factor.
"Now, we are on the lookout for those who do not survive the slump and will move from there. If it is cheap and reasonable enough, we may consider it," MISC chief executive officer Datuk Shamsul Azhar Abbas told Business Times in an interview.
MISC has been looking for a possible acquisition in the past two years, but prices quoted to it were less than favourable.
Shamsul said that managing cost and developing competency remain the two biggest challenges to the shipping company.
MISC has enough funds at present to support its operations without borrowing. It has yet to tap into the close to RM2 billion raised from its Islamic bond issue last year.
In the last four years, MISC has sharpened its performance in terms of profit generation and this has had a positive impact, Shamsul said.
"In the current situation where costs are rising, we are building up resilience and anticipate that our initiatives will reduce our operating cost by 20 per cent."
Shamsul, who will retire by the year-end, said that MISC was more fortunate compared with its global peers as more than 70 per cent of its operating profit is derived from stable and fixed-term businesses.
This is unlike the past few months, which have seen corporate earnings and margins across the globe being squeezed as the economic downshift continues.
"Commodity prices are at historical highs and, at the same time, we are in the middle of a global credit crunch," Shamsul said, noting that more than half of the ships on order in the global market could not find any financing.
At the end of the day, there may be cancellations, he said. Quite a number of shipyards have been hit and are resorting to renegotiating their contracts, he added.
"This is happening already in the industry, but for MISC, we have not reached that point."
Shamsul conceded, however, that despite its large scale and global presence, the group's cost pressures continue to intensify and impact on its profit margins.
"While being better positioned to ride current headwinds, freight rates are expected to come under increasing pressure in the short term as supply of new ships outstrips demand in the petroleum and container shipping sector."
Shamsul said that he was not surprised by the lower profit (down 2.6 per cent to RM2.43 billion) registered in the financial year ended March 31 2008 despite a historical revenue of almost RM13 billion.
He said he would continue "to steer the ship to calmer waters" in his last few months with MISC before handing over the post to Amir Hamzah Azizan on January 1 next year.
http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/Saturday/Frontpage/kapall.xml/Article/ |
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