【GAMUDA 5398 交流专区1】金务大

yeephuang

原帖由 khokhokho 于 27-2-2008 11:08 发表

這不是報導。

这是什么意思？
gamuda可以講是建築股最好的一個，工程主要是政府工程，而且他又在大選其間出票，使投資者和外資在這當中，基金人員並不是講只是看公司而已，最注要的是管理方面，一路以來它都是 ...

谢谢答复
但下面这句，不是很明白
"一但這問題無法解決，外資和基金肯定不會和他們講，等到下跌時才來賣出手上的股票。"

在哪一个网站的财经新闻比较好的？

Mr.Business

听说Cari财经报的资料是很丰富的。。。

我命由我不由天

快上RM4了 加油~~·！！！

股友

不小心看到有２０千lot的一个交易买进在RM４。００。还有其他大的交易。看来是玩真的了。

tanhin

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 27-2-2008 11:28 发表
听说Cari财经报的资料是很丰富的。。。

是丰富，但很难找到各股票行/研究机构analyst的report及有用的资料。

股友

有时候路边社新闻比官方新闻来的重要吧。要等官方新闻／数据股价已经跌到稀巴烂了，例：proton。

tanhin

原帖由 股友 于 27-2-2008 11:42 发表
不小心看到有２０千lot的一个交易买进在RM４。００。还有其他大的交易。看来是玩真的了。

好消息陆续登场，看来超短期是上的。算是我本身技术/胆量不够，错失一个买入的时机。http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/2/27/business/20458553&sec=business

Mr.Business

新闻。

Gamuda mulls share buyback as market value plummets

By Francis Fernandez

GAMUDA Bhd, the country's second biggest builder, may buy its own shares after the company lost nearly RM2.6 billion in market value over the past six trading days.

"We are weighing our options," a Gamuda official said in a telephone conversation recently.

Gamuda has not started buying back its shares, it said in an e-mail reply to Business Times.

Last year, Gamuda's shareholders approved a share buyback plan. It could buy up to a tenth of its shares or spend not more than its retained profits.

As at August 2006, Gamuda had retained profits of RM1.15 billion.

Gamuda closed 20 sen higher at RM3.80 yesterday after DBS Vickers changed its recommendation on the stock to "buy" from "hold".

But DBS Vickers slashed its share price target from RM5 to RM4.50.

However, the single largest shareholder continued to buy more shares.

FMR LLC & Fidelity International Ltd yesterday said it bought 40,300 Gamuda shares last week, bringing its shareholding to 11.87 per cent.

The builder has been under siege since last week, after its group managing director for the past 26 years, revealed last week that he is no longer a substantial shareholder.

Datuk Lin Yun Ling sold 70 million Gamuda shares, paring his stake in the company to 1.73 per cent from 5.23 per cent before.



Following the sale, JPMorgan which said in a report that Gamuda is "a ship without rudders", cut its share price target to RM3.3O, branding it "a top stock to avoid in 2008".

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/Wednesday/Latest/gamux.xml/Article/print_html

Mr.Business

新闻。

Wednesday February 27, 2008

Gamuda’s Lin staying on

By KATHY FONG

PETALING JAYA: Gamuda Bhd managing director Datuk Lin Yun Ling has given foreign fund managers an assurance that he will stay on to lead the construction group he founded for at least five more years.

StarBiz understands that Lin spoke to foreign institutional investors via teleconference on Monday and told them that his move in selling his stake was not a signal that he was exiting Gamuda.

He also told them that the fact that he was still heading Gamuda after trimming his equity interest in the company in April 2002 demonstrated his intention to remain in his post.  

StarBiz also learned that Lin had admitted that he expected the flow of construction jobs to slow down in the near future.  

Gamuda, he said, would still be able to replenish its order book, currently at a record RM11bil, but the jobs secured were unlikely to be as big as those in hand now.  

The group’s earnings might not have peaked although the value of its order book might already have, he told the foreign investors.

The session was prompted by the sharp fall in Gamuda’s share price last Thursday when Lin sold 70 million shares, cutting his stake to 1.7% from 5.2%, for “estate planning purposes.”

Gamuda rebounded yesterday with a 20 sen gain to RM3.86 as the day’s most actively traded counter, on volume of 41.6 million shares.

A head of research said the heavy selldown on the construction blue chip was mainly due to the lack of details on the rationale behind Lin’s move.  

“The market was left guessing what could possibly be the worst case scenario for an insider to sell the stake.

“Lin could have been more transparent on the share disposal,” he added.  

Some institutional investors were upset that the group had been feeding analysts with positive news on Gamuda’s earnings prospects, which had helped push up its share price following their “buy” or “overweight” recommendations.

The stock price skidded when the market was abuzz with speculation over all the possible adverse circumstances that could affect Gamuda, one of which was that the construction industry had reached the end of the upcycle.  

The group, it was felt, may experience margin squeeze given the rising price of building material costs and that being a non-bumiputra construction company, Gamuda may also face a tougher operating environment in terms of benefiting from the Government’s pump priming measures.

However, this is not the first time Lin has made such an unexpected move.

When he sold a 1.4% stake in the open market in April 2002, Gamuda’s share price nose-dived, wiping out about RM330mil in market value.

Gamuda’s order book had also swelled to a record RM3bil at that time.  

In 2000, Lin took shareholders by surprise when he bought a 44% stake in polymer lithium ion rechargeable batteries maker Dyna Plastic Sdn Bhd for RM68mil cash.

Lin defended the purchase, saying that it was to give the group a more steady earnings growth given the cyclical nature of the construction industry.  

The investing community, however, did not accept news of the deal well and Gamuda’s stock price was hammered.  

All these happened in less than eight years. Questions are now being asked if Gamuda still deserves the higher premium it currently enjoys on its shares.

股友

tanhin医生会技术分析？没露一手？我自从会技术分析胆小多了。

tanhin

原帖由 股友 于 27-2-2008 11:54 发表
有时候路边社新闻比官方新闻来的重要吧。要等官方新闻／数据股价已经跌到稀巴烂了，例：proton。

当然。可是这些资料是最基本做功课所需的，不管是 FUNDAMENTAL 还是TECHNICAL.

tanhin

可以贴英文，我就贴CIMB 的Damage control:
Yesterday, we arranged a conference call with Dato’ Lin Yun Ling, the founder and managing director of Gamuda, for over 40 fund managers. The objective was to seek clarification on Dato’ Lin’s disposal of 70m Gamuda shares last week. Dato' clarified that his sale was a personal financial decision that does not have any negative implications for the company, whether in relation to his future role in the company or Gamuda’s prospects. He was taken aback by the market's reaction, having expected no more than a 10% drop in the share price, similar to the share price decline when he sold some shares back in 2002. Dato' dismissed all speculation and signals that some investors have read into his unexpected move. Below are seven key points from our call:

On his 70m share placement.
According to Dato', his move should not be viewed as something out of the ordinary. He said that he had never held a big portion of Gamuda’s shares and he places out part of his shares every 5-6 years. Admittedly, he had about 25% shareholding some 20 years back but has reduced it via several placements. In such an exercise back in 2002, he sold 10m shares for c.RM65m.

On his commitment to staying on as MD – a small stake does not matter.
According to Dato', although his stake in Gamuda has been reduced to just 1.7%, this does not even come close to altering his commitment as MD of the company. He said that being a pure builder and contractor has always been his passion and being part of Gamuda over the past 30 years has given him that satisfaction. He intends to keep it that way and has no plans to stop running the company. He said that his small stake in the company he founded does not represent his passion and commitment to the company.

Committed for at least five more years.
Dato’ clarified that the placement was not at all part of a succession plan. He stressed that he will remain at the helm of Gamuda and that so far, he does not see any conflict or issues that could remove him from office or motivate him to exit. Dato’ said that as far as a succession plan is concerned, it will take place at its own pace and will be a gradual process.

Will maintain his direct involvement in future projects; no health issues.
Dato' has directly been involved in securing the Vietnam projects and reviving the northern double tracking project. He will remain the main negotiator and strategist of future projects, holding the view that "he is still the best person to handle things." He is a healthy 52-year-old engineer. He added that there are no health issues and the placement was done not because of this.

On "estate planning" and the buyers of his shares.
Dato clarified that his sale was motivated by his need to "diversify" and was mainly for "personal planning". With the regard to the timing and the buyers of his shares, he said that it was important that he realises some cash and invests it in other asset classes. Dato’ was not in a position to disclose the identity of the two investors who took up his shares.

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 27-2-2008 12:28 PM 编辑 ]

股友

原帖由 股友 于 26-2-2008 04:00 PM 发表
以好的方向想可能会有人收购或入股。因为gamuda的招牌，地库，收费站，技术，工程等等。

大胆假设MMC并购gamuda。前三天的跌势也拖累了它。

tanhin

Double tracking – Gamuda has full control of project. Contrary to the widespread
concern that the double-tracking project is facing some setbacks, Dato’ made it clear
that there are no foreseeable hurdles that could derail this job. The project is on track
and Gamuda is in full control of the main civil works, down to the subcontracting
portion. Awards of subcontracting works need to be done on a competitive tender
basis and will be subject to strict monitoring by Gamuda. For example, any delay
beyond three months will result in the elimination of that subcontractor. As far as cost
pressures are concerned, the RM12.5bn value for the contract was negotiated on the
basis that costs will continue to rise over the next five years and should be sufficient to
buffer against any further rise in material prices. Key risks like the prices of steel and
cement can be hedged and the company is in the process of doing so.

On Gamuda's fundamentals – expect a good 2QFY7/08 showing. Dato said that
historically, Gamuda never failed to secure one or two big-ticket projects annually. He
also stressed that his share disposal does not paint a different picture of Gamuda’s
fundamentals. The company is looking at RM4bn worth of new construction jobs in
2008, on top of the RM10.9bn orderbook it now has. Building material prices are not a
serious issue for Gamuda as they account for less than 8% of project cost and there is
already a good buffer for this in most of its new jobs. Vietnam will continue to be the
next growth area and he is still positive about it. That aside, Gamuda’s upcoming 2Q
results will be released on 26 Mar 08 and should show strong numbers. This should
reassure investors of the quality of Gamuda’s financials and provide an indication of
whether it can deliver the guided earnings. Management indicated that the guided
DPS of 25 sen for FY08 is intact.

CIMB 的Comments
Genuine reassurance. There were no surprises from the conference call. However,
Dato’ was genuinely reassuring investors that his sale was not a precursor to bad
times. The 70m shares which were disposed at RM4.60-4.69/share have no bearing
on what he thinks Gamuda is worth. Contrary to general perception, the sale was
mainly for personal reasons. Nothing has changed. Clearly, Dato’ had underestimated
the market’s reaction.

No more bad news in sight? In just a matter of three days, Gamuda’s share price
has tumbled 27% and the company has lost RM2.6bn in market capitalisation.
Although this conference call will help to allay some investors’ worries, verbal
reassurance will not be enough to restore the share price to the level it was at before
the share sale. One catalyst could be the 2Q results which are expected to show
across-the-board improvement. A main indicator would be an overall expansion in
EBIT margins from 12.4% in 1Q08, as a result of the stronger flow of new contracts.
Other newsflow includes the announcement of new contracts from local and overseas
(RM4bn) and a new property project in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) with a GDV of
RM4bn.

Figure 1: Outstanding orderbook

Major projects Balance of works % of Status/comments
/ value (RM m) orderbook
Middle East contracts 1,100.0 10.1% : Dukhan Highway - 80% completed
NDIA - 55% completed
Sitra Bridge - progress at 25%
Local road jobs 100.0 0.9% : 90% completed
Nam Theun 1 Hydroelectric power plant 1,900.0 17.5% : Work has commenced
Double tracking (50% JV stake)
- RM12.5bn, 330km Ipoh to Rawang (north) 6,250.0 57.6% : Work has commenced
Vietnam infrastructure (Yenso) 1,500.0 13.8% : Ongoing
Total outstanding order book 10,850.0 100%
Source: Company, CIMB/CIMB-GK Research

[ 本帖最后由 tanhin 于 27-2-2008 12:31 PM 编辑 ]

Mr.Business

可以贴英文资料，不过请加点中文字。。。

Mr.Business

MD一边卖股，一边叫人不必担心，并说看好公司的前景。逻辑吗？

tan81

MD 讲，你们不放心，我又怎么能把股票卖完呢？

tanhin

看来反弹是来真的，获利的是？？？？？


Gamuda mulls share buyback as market value plummets
Gamuda Bhd may buy its own shares after the company lost nearly RM2.6bn in market value over the past 6 trading days.
Last year, Gamuda's shareholders approved a share buyback plan. It could buy up to 10% of its shares or spend not more
than its retained profits. As at August 2006, Gamuda had retained profits of RM1.15bn. (BT)

Mr.Business

我是觉得这些上市公司的老板都已经很有钱了，需要将股份卖掉投资别个东西吗？再说他又这么看好公司的前途，应该增加自己的股份嘛。。。上次卖股也是引起惊吓，这次又来，看来他对公司股东都不是很在乎。

sundaymidnight

这种glc很明显就是提款机，再不提款，大选输了，就没有机会跑了