tan81个人专区2--季度检讨--红红的09年1Q(48页）謝絕灌水

ThermoFisher

吹水罢了，泥鳅要约我们去吃咸猪手。。。

http://cforum4.cari.com.my/viewt ... age%3D1&page=25

ZheHui

原帖由 ThermoFisher 于 19-4-2009 05:46 PM 发表

引用:

原帖由 ZheHui 于 19-4-2009 12:45 PM 发表

哈哈，靚哥哥你夠斤兩 ge。
高大威猛，最少都 80 kg 啦。

差太远了。。。

哈哈，果然童叟無欺。

蚂蚁小弟

原来是隔壁楼的事
嘿嘿
怪不得我也蒙查查

tan81

原帖由 dreamer55 于 19-4-2009 08:49 AM 发表
我想点出的是，当你研究了一间公司，期望它能为你的资本开翻，同时又期望通过高卖低买来拉低成本，那你是否做足了趋势变化不如你所愿时，你该怎么应对的心理准备？

谢谢你的分享。如果我还不分享，就过意不去了。

其实投资是边学边做。所以，过程中会有错误，是难免的。
起初，我的投资计划是Nestle。可是在操作的过程，等不到我的价位。
开始让我意识到，如果市场价格变动不如我的期望时，我要怎么办？
经过摸索和思考，我开始体会到组合的好处。所以，我开始考虑LPI和PBB。

现在一切都是马后炮。不过，我的确计划了在RM7 以下和RM8.5 以下买入PBB 和LPI。
可惜，那个时候刚好遇上了急事，没有做到这笔投资。

如果到时，组合也解决不到这个问题，那么我只好按照市价买入。那个最后的选择。
其实公司好，买贵了，只是少拿1-2年的股息。18年的计划最多变成20年而已。
我还是觉得没有差的。

所以回答你的问题，如果公司是很值得投资的，就算持续上涨的股价，我还是要买。
只不过这些没有低价买入的投资，就绝对不可以拿来做高卖低买的操作。几率不高。

在Panic Selling 时候买入的，拿来高卖低买，我认为成功几率比较高。

十一哥

有時說，總是要有點運氣的。
如果說要運氣，人家又會說那是睹。
左右為難。

dreamer55

看来我们的看法和领悟相当一致。

呵呵，那就祝你投资顺利了。

老散一名

性格決定了你的投資，投資是和你的性格息息相關的。
你可以改變自己的性格嗎？
好像很難是嗎？

p/s 只要適合你的性格的投資不是可以囉。
      暫時失敗並不代表永遠，人總是要經過風風浪浪的。

tan81

Leading economic indicators dip more than expected
Private research group's monthly economic forecast fell slightly more than expected in March

    * Tali Arbel, AP Business Writer
    * Monday April 20, 2009, 10:55 am EDT

    *
      Buzz up!
    * Print

NEW YORK (AP) -- A private sector group's index of leading economic indicators fell more than expected in March, but the forecast called for the recession's intensity to ease this summer.

The Conference Board said Monday that its monthly forecast of economic activity fell 0.3 percent in March and has not risen in nine months. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected a 0.2 percent decline.

The index is designed to forecast economic activity in the next three to six months based on 10 components, such as stock prices, the money supply, jobless claims, new orders by manufacturers and building permits.

The index for February was better than previously reported, falling 0.2 percent instead of 0.4 percent. But it was revised lower in January to a 0.2 percent decline, instead of a 0.1 percent increase.

"The recession may continue through summer, but the intensity will ease," Ken Goldstein, economist at the Conference Board, said in a release. "There have been some intermittent signs of improvement in the economy in April, but the leading economic index and most of its components are still pointing down."

Dragging the index lower were building permits, stock prices and vendors' deliveries to businesses.

But there were three positive indicators in March, including growth in the real money supply from Federal Reserve programs to pump up the economy. Also pointing higher were the wide "interest rate spread," or difference between the interest rates for 10-year Treasurys and the benchmark federal funds rate, and the consumer expectations index.

In the six months through March, the index fell 2.5 percent, nearly double the 1.4 percent drop in the six-month span through February.

In spring, however, there has been some positive news. The Dow Jones industrials rose about 15 percent since their February bottom.

Auto sales in March jumped 25 percent from the month before, construction of new homes seems to have stabilized, and earnings from big banks have been better than expected. Bank of America Corp. on Monday became the latest to report a profit that beat analysts' expectations -- even as it put up $6.4 billion to cover future credit losses.

The National Association for Business Economics' latest quarterly survey, also out Monday, showed that while companies and trade associates are more pessimistic about U.S. economic growth, more companies are seeing increased demand for their products. There also was a slight uptick in businesses reporting increased capital spending, but more than half still said they were cutting back, according to the NABE report.

Still, the labor market likely will stay weak and more claims for unemployment insurance helped drag down the Conference Board index.

The Labor Department said last week that while new jobless claims were at the lowest level since late January, people continuing to collect unemployment insurance rose above 6 million for the first time.

Many economists expect the unemployment rate -- now at a 25-year high of 8.5 percent -- to hit 10 percent by the end of the year.

On Monday, a General Motors Corp. executive said 1,600 white-collar workers will lose their jobs in the next few days as the struggling automaker chops away at the 47,000 worldwide layoffs set to happen this year.

tan81

恶魔开始出来害人了。和Cari 的一群人很像。

Dow 10,000 By Year's End? Some Pros Think It's Possible

    * On Thursday April 30, 2009, 10:01 am EDT

    *
      Buzz up!
    * Print

After months of being fed doomsday scenarios, investors are now starting to take a look at stock market utopia.

In this land, bad news, like

Wednesday's dismal GDP numbers

, don't matter.

Here, housing prices stabilize, banks are resuscitated, corporations offer positive earnings guidance, and economic data points start showing signs that things are actually improving and aren't just less horrible than before.

A total fantasy land? Maybe not, say some experts who believe the market's best-case scenario isn't too shabby.

"I'm very impressed at how strong the market has been in the past several days. We've had every opportunity to sell off," says David Twibell, president of wealth management for Colorado Capital Bank in Denver. "Objectively, you've got to be somewhat surprised by that and certainly impressed.

"Are we really seeing a bottom in the market or a substantial bear market rally?" he adds. "This looks more and more like there are some real legs to this thing."

'Green Shoots' or Just Weeds?

In the case that the so-called "green shoots" of the economy-as delineated by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke-are real, then so are the realities that accompany the mild improvements in some areas.

One of the starkest is that anyone who thinks this market will see its historic highs from October 2007 anytime soon is dreaming.

"Are we going to get back to 14,000 on the Dow this year? That is highly, highly, highly unlikely," says John Buckingham, chief investment officer at value-based Al Frank Asset Management in Laguna Beach, Calif. "But you have to be realistic. If stocks doubled in the next five years, that's a phenomenal return from here."

Most experts interviewed by CNBC.com indicated that the Dow's best hope would be about 10,000 by year's end. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, is among those that have set a 1,000 target for the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index.

Even then, such a move higher would reflect a 30 percent growth and come only under the most ideal conditions: Unemployment turning around, housing finally finding a bottom, a more positive earnings climate beyond the better-than-Armageddon results from the first quarter, and general signs of positivity from the economy in terms of production, inventory reduction and other key metrics.

Still, with the market in an historically volatile environment, don't bet against it.

"The best you might hope is to see some stability in the banking system, a re-emergence of risk-taking, in such a scenario," Buckingham says. "I've been through more than a few downturns and subsequent recoveries. What I've been surprised is by the magnitude of moves in both directions."

Too Much, Too Soon?

Indeed, the market has been rocked numerous times over the past 18 months by massive swings in both directions.

Some market pros are losing sleep over the notion that the optimism sweeping the market now could be setting Wall Street up for a fall.

"My underlying concern is I believe the market is going to rise ahead of the fundamentals. Anytime it does that the fundamentals have to catch up," says Michael Kresh, president of M.D. Kresh Financial Services in Islandia, N.Y. "I really don't want it to get too far ahead of where it is, because the snapback could change the public sentiment."

The prevailing hope, then, is that the market moves higher but in a controlled and sustainable fashion.

The baseline notions for the best-case scenarios remain the ideal. But a market that remains controlled by emotions is susceptible to sharp pullbacks.

Yet market-watchers have been encouraged by the drop in the Chicago Board Options Exchnage's Volatility Index (Chicago: VIX), which has fallen by more than half from its historic high.

"I would rather we kind of grind along here and make a couple-percent move week after week as opposed to what we saw last October, with a 10 percent up-day followed by a bunch of 3 or 4 percent down days," Buckingham says. "You want this to be a wave that's building as opposed to a giant tsunami."

At the end of the day, those looking for that gradual build may get what they want, while those hoping for a Wall Street Garden of Eden will have to wait until 2010 or beyond.

After all, unemployment is forecast to hit 10 percent or more, housing may not reach a true bottom for another six months, and earnings guidance from this quarter offered only scant opportunities for hopes of the best-case scenario materializing.

"My guess would be we're halfway to that point at this stage, maybe even less than halfway," says Richard Sparks, senior analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati. "You could argue the market's shaking off what should be bad news, but there's no clear evidence the economy is back on track."

ThermoFisher

馬股5月料微調再攀新高
大馬財經 即時新聞  2009-04-30 16:39

（吉隆坡）馬股4月天牛氣逼人，分析員認為，近期漲勢既長且猛，惟市場也浮現“超買”跡象，需時進行調整喘息，漲潮方可久而彌堅，相信市場5月將邁入“調整期”，但調幅料不會太大。

志必得證券研究經理馮廷秀表示，馬股4月表現亮眼，漲勢有望延燒1至2個月，但長期而論，漲潮仍需經過一輪歇息調整，方可久而彌堅。

“傳統上，馬股在美國經濟呈谷底回彈後將出現1至2個月漲潮，相信漲潮已經開始，有望帶領馬股突破遠超1000點目標，但中間也將出現調整壓力。”

他表示，雖然美國經濟仍未全面復甦，但首季國內生產總值衰退幅度放緩，顯示經濟持續改善，有望在下半年即可“重回正途”，料可對大馬等出口經濟帶來支撐。

“首季國內生產總值和企業財報料難有驚喜，但投資者已對此打了預防針，只要結果不會太差，相信整體影響不大。”

星洲互動‧2009.04.30

江湖

shell 大起， 你的女友爽死了

tan81

Keladi 最近大起40%， 她会比较高兴。

tan81

原帖由 tan81 于 10-3-2009 11:46 PM 发表
今天适逢PBB 大跌，成功买进PBB。

在这里Update 我的Nestle 投资组合：

Cash：              89.87%
Nestle 股票：     5.78%       买价都是RM26。
PBB  股票：       4.35%       买价都是RM7.25。

今天卖出所有的PBB-01。 卖价是RM 8.60。
第一次通过Panic Selling 获利。虽然在之前离开大马时，失去了扩大获利的机会，不过获得很宝贵的经验。
实在感谢鱼大的教导，赚到的这笔钱。

收到了Statement ，才Update 组合的实际情况。Nestle 的股价上涨，也许占了组合的6% 左右。
现金应该是94%。

基金小子

你的NESTLE赚很多了。。。。
我的平均价高你很多。。。

基金小子

你的NESTLE赚很多了。。。。
我的平均价高你很多。。。

基金小子

你的NESTLE赚很多了。。。。
我的平均价高你很多。。。

ckwong8086

原帖由 tan81 于 4-5-2009 08:22 PM 发表


今天卖出所有的PBB-01。 卖价是RM 8.60。
第一次通过Panic Selling 获利。虽然在之前离开大马时，失去了扩大获利的机会，不过获得很宝贵的经验。
实在感谢鱼大的教导，赚到的这笔钱。

收到了Statement ，才 ...

WHY把PBB全卖了？？

tan81

买入大跌的蓝筹股，其中一个原因是要学习Ｐａｎｉｃ　Ｓｅｌｌｉｎｇ　的操作技巧。这个组合还是以Ｎｅｓｔｌｅ　的投资为主。只有在Ｎｅｓｔｌｅ　不值得买入的情况，或还剩下钱的情况之下，我才考虑持有其他的公司。
ＰＢＢ－０１还有一个问题就是技术问题，和投资策略的实行问题有关，不方便透露。终结一句，这次卖出和基本面无关。

ThermoFisher

我没有教你什么，这是你凭自己的实力赚到的，小狐狸慢慢长大了。。。

siaolee2000

敢问陈总是不是不看好后市？为什么持有这么多现金都不入场？