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发表于 9-9-2006 02:56 PM
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原帖由 klse.8k 于 9-9-2006 02:45 PM 发表
Megan刚刚公布最新的Audited Account，针对Other receivables，里面已经有详细的说明，我简单的转述如下：
第33页7.1和7.3项目：
Other receivables的详情如下：
213.61m是购买新机器的定金。
22.8 ...
WAH ！
机器Deposit213.61m
那新机器以DEPOSIT ３０％算
最少也要６００million
可以买几架737了?! |
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发表于 9-9-2006 03:11 PM
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原帖由 jackphang 于 9-9-2006 10:56 AM 发表
EBT 也是没有考虑到利息开销等，因为利息开销是可以被capitalized。
如果Asset再来一个impairment loss(不排除管理层使用这招来减少影响)的话....
当然，从现有的境况来看，只要营业额继续成长，ROE一直维持 ...
根据最新的Audited Account（第46页，第18项目）：
Megan的全年利息开支共计46m。
所以税前盈利86m，是已经扣除了46m的利息开销。
ROE不能只看1年（最好是看5年）。
如果只看1年。。。
也许我就会买进Comsa了，因为挂牌后的第1年它的ROE是25%。
如果只看1年。。。
也许我就错过Megan了，因为去年它的ROE只有13%。
（0.295/2.31 = 12.8%） |
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发表于 9-9-2006 03:14 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 9-9-2006 03:24 PM
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原帖由 hdcyng 于 9-9-2006 02:56 PM 发表
WAH ！
机器Deposit213.61m
那新机器以DEPOSIT ３０％算
最少也要６００million
可以买几架737了?!
一口气买这么多的机器，真的很恐怖！
往坏的方面想。。。
去哪里找这么多钱？又要再借钱？
往好的方面想。。。
生意真的这样好？营业额不是要大增？ |
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发表于 9-9-2006 03:43 PM
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無形資產的價值
拜瑞‧李伯特(Barry Libert)在旅館的會議室大廳當中四處踱步，就像個大學籃球校隊的教練一樣，告訴前來聽他演講的聽眾他們多麼的不值錢﹔而這也正是這些人來聽的目的。「你們坐的椅子都比你們值錢」全球最大的會計公司Arther Andersen總裁拜瑞‧李伯特這麼說著，「這些椅子是資產，而你們卻是公司的成本
。」 拜瑞‧李伯特過去六個月當中，馬不停蹄的在全球八十個城市向商業界人士發表演說，講述多數公司的真實價值無法以一般的會計帳目來評估的問題。請把傢俱、設備、或是辦公室大樓這些固定資產擺到一邊，這兒講的可是人們、點子、聲譽、關係、以及專利、商標與版權這些無形的資產。當今有多達四分之三的公司無法在損益表上顯示出這些智慧財產權的價值。
「有一回我問一家公司他們擁有的員工、人脈、知識、遠見、智慧、專利、和公司內外部人員的所有相關資料到底值多少錢」拜瑞‧李伯特表示，「你們知道我得到的回答是什麼嗎？不值一毛錢就是我得到的答案。」
「人員的智慧不值一毛錢，目前人力屬於公司的成本項目，而這也就是他們的價值，這套說法真是荒謬至極」他說。
當然，公司人員和點子的價值並非產品營收所能衡量的觀點並非新意。早期的美國商業顧問法蘭克林(Benjamin Franklin)表示，「知識一向具有最高的投資報酬率」﹔不過，他也不是這個看法的濫觴。人們越來越覺得這個早在十五世紀發明的會計帳目(只把實體企業的投資算成資產，但是軟體、訓練、或是創新的營運方式卻算成會侵蝕獲利的開支項目)並不能充分反映出現代企業的真實價值。這種會計帳法不能顯示這些員工對於迎接未來挑戰的準備程度，也很難看出資產負債表之外的公司價值。拜瑞‧李伯特表示，這個問題導致股市走勢起伏震盪，投資人雖然了解創新科技或是客戶滿意度是企業成功的基石，但是公司湧現利空消息打擊的時候，卻沒有具體的數字可以衡量這些無形的資產。
一當有了價值時，人的眼中看上去是一個金山;
一當沒了價值時，人的眼中看上去是一個堆土;
無形資產的價值，到底眼中看上去是什麼樣子，是金是土。 |
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发表于 9-9-2006 08:53 PM
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原帖由 hdcyng 于 9-9-2006 02:56 PM 发表
WAH ！
机器Deposit213.61m
那新机器以DEPOSIT ３０％算
最少也要６００million
可以买几架737了?!
那些机器是跟谁买的？什么公司？
一直都是跟这些公司采购新机器吗？
本地公司吗？新加坡公司吗？
新加坡Yeo的代理人公司吗？Yeo的亲属关系公司吗？ 
什么性质的机器？CDR/DVD-R的机器的生产机器的复杂性和价钱应该不高吧？
一共是多少台新机器呢？可以增加多少产能呢？
增添了这些新机器后，到底生产线增加了多少呢？
产能能够增加多少%呢？
最好就是去megan的工厂看一看这些珍贵的机器，
抄下它的型号，然后向市场上的厂家拿quotation,
就知道yeo如何妥善利用公司的钱了，
也可以知道yeo能够拿到的回扣金额大概的数目，
是不是在肥水不流外人田了。。。  |
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发表于 9-9-2006 10:54 PM
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原帖由 wtk75 于 9-9-2006 08:53 PM 发表
那些机器是跟谁买的？什么公司？
一直都是跟这些公司采购新机器吗？
本地公司吗？新加坡公司吗？
新加坡Yeo的代理人公司吗？Yeo的亲属关系公司吗？
什么性质的机器？CDR/DVD-R的机器的生产机器的复杂性和 ...
很好的提议/问题，不妨大家一起来研究研究。 |
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发表于 10-9-2006 04:37 PM
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Some of my opinions
1.wtk75 said:
”那些机器是跟谁买的？什么公司？一直都是跟这些公司采购新机器吗？
本地公司吗？新加坡公司吗？新加坡Yeo的代理人公司吗？Yeo的亲属关系公司吗?”
In RAM Credit Rating report, page 10:
“……MMHB recently signed a technical assistance agreement with Mitsubishi Chemicals Ltd (“Mitsubishi Chemicals”), an international conglomerate which markets and distributes OSM products under the Verbatim banner. Mitsubishi
Chemicals is also one of MMHB’s main suppliers of manufacturing equipment……”
2. klse.8k said:
“那么Megan修改折旧率是否算是做假呢？一路以来Megan采用的折旧率都是10%-15%。后来大量买进机器后，它才修改折旧率，把它提高到20%。
(税收局的角度来看，这就是作假，因为有逃税之嫌）
以常理来说，提高折旧率是聪明的做法，因为可以减少缴税。
但是，20%的折旧率只采用了短短的半年，Megan就把它修改为10%了，这是恢复到以前，所以不算是作假”
Actually since 2001 Megan has been using depreciation rate up to 20% annually. Only from 1 November 2005, Megan revised the depreciation rate to 10% (Their reason is
to better reflect the estimated useful lives of the plant and equipment)
In 2002 Annual Report:
Depreciation
Freehold land is not depreciated. The straight-line method is used to write off the cost of the other assets over the term of their estimated useful lives at the following principal annual rates:
Factory equipment 10% to 20%
Air conditioners, computer and office equipment 10% to 20%
Furniture, and electrical fittings 10% to 20%
Machinery and moulds 10% to 20%
Renovation 10% to 20%
Motor vehicles 20%
In Financial Statement for the year ended 30 April 2006 (page22):
Depreciation
Freehold land is not depreciated. Buildings are depreciated on a straight-line basis
over the shorter of 50 years or the lease period of 30 years. The straight-line
method is used to write off the cost of other assets over the term of their estimated
useful lives at the following principal annual rates:
Factory equipment, machinery and moulds 10%
Computer and office equipment,
furniture and electrical fittings 10%
Renovation 10%
Motor vehicles 20%
Research and development equipment 10%
With effect from 1 November 2005, the estimated useful lives of all property,
plant and equipment except for buildings and motor vehicles in the subsidiary
were revised so as to better reflect their estimated useful lives,
3. I think Megan Chairman sells share because he needs money and not because any conspiracy, because he has been selling share since 2002. And I do not think he received any commission because buying machine. If not, he would not need to sell his share.
23-05-2002: Megan Media executive chairman cuts stake
By Joseph Chin, 11.15am
Megan Media Holdings Bhd executive chairman Datuk Mohd Adam Che Harun reduced his shareholding in the company after disposing of a 0.71 per cent stake comprising 500,000 shares.
According to a filing to the KLSE, he sold the shares in the open market on May 16.
After the disposal, his stake has been reduced to 17.53 per cent comprising 12.31 million shares.
The share price rose one sen to RM2.88 on that day.
http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/ ... ticle.Article_12825
08-09-2003: Megan Media exec chairman sells 1 mln shares
By Ng Kar Yean, 10.59am
Megan Media Holdings Bhd executive chairman Datuk Dr Mohd Adam Che Harun disposed of one million shares in the optical disk manufacturer on Aug 28.
Filings to the KLSE showed that after the disposal, his stake in the company was reduced to 12.24 per cent or 9.81 million shares after the disposal.
Megan Media was trading between RM2.99 and RM3.08 on that day.
http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/ ... ticle.Article_24643
4. According to The Edge that published news about Megan from 2003 to 2004, the cost to set up one dvdr line is about RM23M.
[ 本帖最后由 tseewie 于 10-9-2006 04:42 PM 编辑 ] |
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发表于 10-9-2006 08:09 PM
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Status of Corporate Proposals
As proposed Utilisation Balance
RM'000 RM'000 RM'000
Repayment of amount due to Megan Media 150,100 150,100 -
Repayment of trade facilities 56,700 56,700 -
Repayment of bank borrowings 63,700 63,700 -
Repayment of hire purchase 21,700 21,700 -
Finance acquisition of factory and renovation 20,000 12,000 8,000
Working capital 7,800 7,800 -
320,000 312,000 8,000
我个人的意见是看MEgan 的BOND ISSUE 得顺利吗？ 因为之前ＲＡＭｄｏｗｎｇｒａｄｅ 他的Ｂｏｎｄ ＲＡｔｉｎｇ．
我在决定要不要买进ＭＥＧＡＮ ．．． |
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发表于 10-9-2006 08:53 PM
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发表于 10-9-2006 09:48 PM
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发表于 10-9-2006 11:21 PM
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I really admire KLSE.8K, who put so much time on research before invest into a company. I have never done that and that is why I have made losses on share market since 1998, for example, as I have never do my on research and(no time) and only follow analyst reports as an indication, I have bought and keep shares such as AKN, Gtronic at high prices, RM5.00, RM7.00 at large volume. I have never know about this cari site until few months ago when I was trying to do some research on a mesdaq firm.
Well, I have not buy any MEGAN Shares, because I am not sure if they are faking the accounts, the company looks very good and cheap to me, and I would like to invest into it personnally, but before I do that, I need to ensure the account is real and that it is true.
Lets look at the situation today, Megan have been downgraded by RAM. There are also risks outside where china might be producing cheaper DVD. Bank Interest start to increase. Oil prices and raw materials are higher and that the firm has a liability of around RM840mil and make about RM80mil per year. Let me briefly explain my background first, I am currently running a technology firm but I don't understand DVD, so forgive me if I say something wrong.
Lets assumed the CEO is a person who would like to keep expanding the firm as he see that there is a big market for DVD. I believe DVD is going to be big and wont be replace until some other new products with higher storage capacity and smaller size, if there is a product that can store 100GB at USD5 and is as small as the Ipod, then DVD will be GONE, this however will only happen in 5 years time
So, at this moment of time, what I need to do is to get some information from all the Super admirer of MEGAN before i invest. I need to know
1.if MEGAN can take this risk of RM840mil loan, a calculation on interest of 10% per year is RM84mil. I need to make at least RM84mil to pay loan. After the interest, how much I make totally?
2.if YEO a guarantor of this Loan (which means if MEGAN gone, I gone), this will ensure him to work harder
3.know if my margin can be maintained at a %(even if the raw material price increase, my price increase)
4. how many contract is long term contract (Supply) and their %?, this is important if one day more competitors come in, then I can base on my long term contract to understand if I can survive through competition
5. how many clients I have today, and % revenue
6. the history of Yeo, his management style on other firm and his living standard today
7. the amount of Director fees for YEO and his family
8. the value of the factory, office, properties in market price (do not include machines, machines is ZERO if MEGAN bankrupt, 1mil machine can be RM5K only)
9. when is his plan to stop expanding by buying machines?
After getting all this information, then I will be able to know if it is a company worth going long term or short term.
Can I know among of us today, how many shares we hold? can we combined all together as an entity and assign and external person to be a independent director?Its capital is only 100mil today. If all of us combined to gather, I am sure there are about 3-4%, then we should have the say.
KLSE8K, any idea? Is this possible? |
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发表于 10-9-2006 11:47 PM
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原帖由 klse.8k 于 1-9-2006 05:08 PM 发表
Megan 也曾经收购公司（新加坡的MJC，老板自己的公司）
原帖由 klse.8k 于 1-9-2006 05:08 PM 发表
而且出售MJC时，他自己也以1.60令吉的价钱认购了附加股。
I only start looking at Megan 1-2months ago, I want to know, he bought this company at what value (capital), and how much shares issues to him. This MJC bought at a P/E ratio of? and the real exact value of it, I am sure all bosses boost the value of their own company
原帖由 klse.8k 于 1-9-2006 05:08 PM 发表
以常理来说，提高折旧率是聪明的做法，因为可以减少缴税。
但是，20%的折旧率只采用了短短的半年，Megan就把它修改为10%了，这是恢复到以前，所以不算是作假。
Why does it change to 10 after that? izzit it better to make it cut 20% per year?
原帖由 klse.8k 于 1-9-2006 05:08 PM 发表
几个月之前，Megan就做了这样的一个决定，它把正在租着的一间厂房买下来。
这就是它增加负债的一个方法，明知道自己已经负债累累了，还要去买下来，真的是自己找来的问题。
I am sure this is quite good, because industry area and factory, you can minus tax
原帖由 klse.8k 于 1-9-2006 05:08 PM 发表
对了，聪明的朋友可能不是这样想，他会说，只要Megan最终停牌，那么就不需要买回去了。
但是，这是少输当赢，那里算是赚？
所有卖出的股票都有它的成本，不可能是从天上跌下来的！
If it suspended, and if he is major owner,more than 51%, he can do anything right?
Thank you if anyone can help answer |
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发表于 10-9-2006 11:53 PM
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原帖由 xiag 于 2-9-2006 12:16 AM 发表
换。
只要肯做功课，去查一下，这几年来，Comsa的股票到底成交了多少股，就可以知道老板是否是受益人了。
现在Comsa股价是3.5分，就当作这一年来，所有的Comsa股票都是老板卖出的，就可以算出他到底赚了 ...
You know I just went into the website on Comsa, I found out a very interesting thing, Comsa owe alot of money, but the one who lend the money is the Major Director. So, now if suspended, he tell all shareholders that he would like to issues all these loan as the shares, then he control around 75% again? Will this happen to MEGAN? Anyone know? |
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发表于 11-9-2006 12:08 AM
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原帖由 khokhokho 于 8-9-2006 12:04 PM 发表
之後他也可以惜用外人親戚，來幫他暗里收票，資金當然是他當時所高價賣出的股票，之後再已3份一的價錢回收股票，那別人也不會講他，而他本身也沒有害處，反而得了 3份2的資金，之後再從另一個國家下手，反收購回公司，而現在megan股價底，那會怕給人收購，外頭的人想收購，但是股權沒法到 51%的，原因外頭的股票也是他們親人所屬的股票
How you know he got more than 50%? is there anyway we can check this out? is there anyway, all the small shareholder to combine our shares and vote for an independent party to help us? |
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发表于 11-9-2006 12:31 AM
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原帖由 veriton 于 10-9-2006 11:21 PM 发表
I really admire KLSE.8K, who put so much time on research before invest into a company. I have never done that and that is why I have made losses on share market since 1998, for example, as I have ...
中国語を話すことができるか,veriton。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 11-9-2006 12:41 AM
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原帖由 veriton 于 10-9-2006 11:21 PM 发表
I really admire KLSE.8K, who put so much time on research before invest into a company. I have never done that and that is why I have made losses on share market since 1998, for example, as I have ...
关于你提出的问题有时间我会回答。
我相信你是一个不简单的人物，如果没有记错的话，你曾经说过你的生意可以年赚百万，你也说过你有意思要把自己的公司拿去挂牌。
（当你说这句话的时候，别人不相信，我却相信）
我看好megan，而你却是不看好它的人。
（你一直说megan会变成comsa，所以我就去研究comsa ，谢谢你的提醒。）
其实，我把“我的功课”发表出来，只是希望得到负面的看法。
（然后我就可以针对这些负面的看法去做功课）
我不在乎别人的批评，所以我没有反驳的意愿，因为发表的目的就是要找负面的看法。（求之不得，哪里还会去反驳？）
我尽量的提出我的看法，并以所知的理由来辩论。
（是辩论，不是反驳，因为反驳有不高兴的味道）
今天你慢慢的对Megan改变想法，这证明我的论点站得住脚。
（所以我回复你这封信）
志同道合才可以一起研究。
（哈，话不投机就半句多）
你知道我是怎样会有兴趣去研究一只股呢？（就好像研究Megan这样）
很简单，我先买进一点点，然后就有兴趣去研究它了。
（万一后来发现不适合，我就把它卖掉，反正佣金也是那么一点点而已）
你今天没有兴趣去研究Megan，那是因为你不是它的小股东。
（tseewie的功课就做得很好，因为他也是小股东，所以我也从中得益了，这就是所谓的交流）
啊，不能写了，太迟了，晚安。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 11-9-2006 09:20 AM
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Megan最新的文告：
Megan最新的文告：
Management confident on Group prospects ahead
With industry showing signs of recovery, and prudent capital management, Megan believes that it will improve its financial performance and position.
On 25 July, 2006, Rating Agency Malaysia (“RAM”) issued a press release revising its rating outlook on Memory Tech Sdn Bhd’s (“MTSB”) RM320 million Bai’ Bithaman Ajil Islamic Debt Securities (“BaIDS”). The rating agency cited its concerns on rising debt to support capital spending and the prevailing industry depression as some of its reasons for its revised outlook.
In response to investors concerns relating to RAM’s announcement, the Megan Media Holdings Berhad (“MMHB”) wishes to state the following:
MMHB is taking proactive steps to allay any concerns raised by RAM. With regard to addressing its debt level, the company will adopt a prudent financial management policy going forward and will seek to reduce its leverage and continue to maintain a high degree of liquidity.
The company is currently having discussions with its BaIDS holders to ensure that it has sufficient flexibility to comply with its debt covenants. It is also actively managing its working capital requirements to ensure that it has full flexibility while the business continues to grow.
MMHB is currently developing its mid-to-long term financial strategy to look at ways to reduce its gearing significantly and adopt the right capital structure to suit its business.
“Management is fully committed to ensure that the company continues to deliver growth. However, management is equally determined to ensure that it has the right capital structure to fuel this growth going forward”, says Dato’ Dr Haji Mohd Adam bin Che Harun (“Dato Adam”),
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of MMHB.
At this stage, the company shares the industry view that selling prices of CD-R is expected to remain in Quarter Three and Four of Year 2006. As the industry is expected to consolidate, MMHB’s management is committed to improve MMHB’s profit performance and liquidity position.
Furthermore, the company is actively considering expanding its product range to include HD-DVD and Blu Ray technologies that would improve yields further. “As a mid-tier player in this industry, we need to ensure that we can serve our clients with the full range of products in optical media
storage. By expanding to HD-DVD and Blu-ray technologies, we will be able to yield higher margins and as well as retain our valued customers. It is for this reason that we had invested in these new technologies” says George Yeo, Executive Director of MMHB.
“Going forward, the company will continue in its quest to deliver continued growth and improved profit margins. Management will also strive to establish an optimal balance sheet funding by adopting a prudent financial management policy”, says Dato’ Adam.
九月底，Megan就要公布截至2006年7月的季度（1Q07）报告，这业绩是好事坏，管理层应该心里有数了。。。从这篇文告我们看得出吗？ |
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发表于 11-9-2006 09:43 AM
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Hi wtk75,
我并没有被”三菱”这两个字给吓唬到，我只是回答你的问题吧了（我不知the text size is that large, haha）I wish to visit the Megan and attend the AGM in Oct, but now I am in Penang. It is far for me to go to Shah Alam, maybe need to depend on your feedback after you guys if ever visit the factory. If anyone here attend the AGM before? What is your opinion about the company and the directors??
klse.8k said:
"你知道我是怎样会有兴趣去研究一只股呢？（就好像研究Megan这样）
很简单，我先买进一点点，然后就有兴趣去研究它了"
我佷同意klse.8k的说法，我现在就佷关心Megan的消息：）
我整理了一些Megan过去的新闻。读了这些新闻，我有以下感想：
１。 Megan has been expanding aggressively this few years.It get many big customers and keep expanding to meet their demand. That is why it keep spending money to set up manufacturing lines. I am impressive to witness Megan's result today (Megan is the largest OSM manufacturer at South-East-Asia with a global market share of approximately 5% as at the end of FYE 30
April 2005 (“FY Apr 2005”).
2. 我不肯定Yeo Wee Siong是不是好人，但我肯定他的做生意能力。He has a Bachelor's degree in Finance and Management from the University of Wisconsin, USA. He started his career in 1991 when he joined Limco Products Manufacturing, a company assembling computers, as marketing manager. He was attached to Limco and was in the computer industry for 2 years prior to setting up his own company, MJC (Singapore), which is involved in manufacturing computer peripherals and data storage products, in 1993. He is also an Executive Director of Memory Tech, a position he has held since 1994.他23岁就start his business (MJC),而在一年后与the late Tan Sri Dato' Mohd Yusof bin Adbul Rahman (the former Chairman of the Affin Group) and Tan Sri Dato' Dr. Haji Abdullah bin Abdul Rahman (the former Director General of the Ministry of Health) set up Megan。12年来他never sell any Megan share (in fact he bought 8.6 million Megan shares from MJC for RM18.2 million or RM 2.11 each)and have make Megan become a very big business.我同意他其实是the shareholder with biggest paper loss on Megan。我不认为他会作假账。我也不认为新董事 （Miss Alice Kuek Ai-Lee）会作假账，她1991年就join MJC，可说是pioneer了（应该是Yeo Wei Siong的左右手）。两个为公司spend 15 years and contrubute so much for company的人，我不认为他们会作假账，我对他们有信心。
３.我在想，是不是并没有人在manipulate Megan's share price。Although the business is getting bigger and bigger, so is the loan, the public have lost their confidence to Megan， therefore the share price is decreasing. Only when the public regain their confidence, the share price will increase.
4. 我希望MJC能上市，减少Megan的债务, regain public's confidence so share price will increase |
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发表于 11-9-2006 09:55 AM
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Megan过去的一些新闻 and some analyst' opinions (from 13-6-2000 until now)
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，如果真是 ６００million
那記得帶錄影機去拍攝一下，分享過程，讓我們也對megan有所認識一下也好，看看它的機器是如何了得。
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