股市要调整了

盘古盘古

有一直在追看这贴,谢谢分享

stanleymyc

换句话，Fed 是没有creditbility, 整个stress test 是一场闹剧.

完全赞同，不过，没有他们，我们怎样赚钱？ 现在，美国bank 都
report profit, 这常戏真的很好看。

现在看来：
1。Fed 说银行breezed thru stress test
2.
Fed 说可能有一些银行需要筹钱

看看先，这条友不懂这么厉害吗

stanleymyc

过去的繁荣不在。 现在不懂找谁消费。 每个股市上升都是有良好经济背后，现在只是熊市反弹，以后还有很多轮。

tanhy

Obama炮轰 Chrysler 的creditor, 说他们太贪心了，不顾国家利益，害到Chrysler破产. 其实我对此不认同，fund manager需要对股东交代，不是对美国政府交待
看到BOA的Ken Lewis吗？这就叫作晚年不保，在股东大会上被人家shoot下台. 美国政府是不是应该封Ken Lewis做“爱国英雄”？
如果美国政府每天用"国家利益“的借口去干预公司的决策，那不如改信毛泽东算了。而且Chrysler不倒闭就符合美国利益？还是符合民主党的利益？

至于GM会不会倒闭？我认为不会，美国政府将会尽一切手段阻止他倒闭，反正印钞机已经开动了，也不差印多几千亿

tanhy

美国银行会不会向股东讨钱？


我认为会，把Mark-to-market拿掉只是把问题暂时盖住，丑妇终须见家翁


美国这些技术上已经国有化的银行需要预防房地产进一步贬值，和credit default 的恶化


所以托高股价，再叫preference share holder 转换成common share 是有需要的

tanhy

strees test 的结果又延迟公布
呵呵，Fed正在想办法掩盖问题，又怕被人炮轰stress test只是猴子戏

伤脑筋

另外，股神老巴将会召开1年1度的“朝圣”
很期待老巴对经济的看法

tanhy

Two more banks failSilverton Bank closes, costing the Deposit Insurance Fund an estimated $1.3 billion. Smaller New Jersey bank also shutters.
每个礼拜都有银行倒闭，这个礼拜的主角是银行的银行

tanhy

今天看了一篇文章，说的是看好和看坏股市的Chief Investment Analysts对stress test的看法， 各有各说
看坏的理由不必说了

看好的呢？
“Fed 不可能会在这时候爆出不利股市的消息“
看见了吧？这就是典型的投机，投机者买的是Fed会继续盖住问题

各位是投资还是投机？
其实都不重要，最重要的是

不要信什么狗屁analyst, 这些家伙都是有利益冲突

tanhy

New York Mayor Seeks Job Cuts, Rise in Sales Tax


With tax collections plunging and unions resisting benefit cuts, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg presented a budget Friday that would cut 13,000 city jobs and would raise the city's sales tax.





就连公务员都被砍，希望同样的事发生在大马, 整班同胞靠政府养，不怪得华人交的所得税都无影无踪

刚看了Autosales 的消息，跌了30多%, Chrysler 最惨，跌整50%
其中访问一个stamping的工人，此君时薪大概USD27
算算一下，月薪USD4k
Stamping的工人都有这么高，有什么理由Chrysler不倒？ 在小新和大马，这些工厂的一般员工最多不是一个月千多？

tanhy

Citigroup said to need up to $10 billion: reportFri May 1, 2009 9:50pm EDT
 

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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc may need to generate up to $10 billion in new capital to meet the requirements of the U.S. government's stress tests, the Wall Street Journal reported on its website on Friday,


Like other financial institutions, the bank is in talks with the Federal Reserve about whether it needs more capital, the Journal said, citing unnamed sources.

Citigroup may need less if regulators accept its arguments about its financial health. In a best-case scenario, Citigroup could have a roughly $500 million cushion above what the government requires, the paper reported.

Calls to Citigroup were not immediately returned. A spokesman for the U.S. Treasury had no comment.

The government created the stress tests as a way to measure the capital needs of the nation's 19 largest banks and their ability to withstand a variety of economic scenarios.

According to a government source, the results are expected to be released to banks on Tuesday and publicly on Thursday.

Analysts believe the government will say all 19 banks are solvent, but that some will need to drum up more capital than others to cushion themselves as the U.S. recession deepens.

The results are expected to show that the banks must raise about $150 billion or more in fresh capital, a scenario that is likely to test the stocks of the neediest banks next week.

丑妇终于登台了

tanhy

股神老巴的看法：
Buffett says government is doing the right thingsBillionaire Warren Buffett says US government is taking the right steps to help economy

Buffett Dismisses Stress Tests for Assessing Banks (Update1) 
“I think I know their future, frankly, better than somebody that comes in to take a look,” Buffett said before the start of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire’s annual shareholder meeting today. “They may be using more of a checklist type approach.”

Buffett Says He Sees ‘No Signs’ of Recovery in Housing, Retail 
May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Warren+Buffett&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Warren Buffett[/url], the chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said he’s seen no indication of recovery from the real estate slump that helped cause the U.S. recession.
“There’s no signs of any real bounce at all in anything to do with housing, retailing, all that sort of thing,” said Buffett, 78, in a Bloomberg Television interview before the Omaha, Nebraska-based company’s annual shareholder meeting today. “You never know for sure, even if there’s a leveling off, which way the next move will be.”

tanhy

股神不愧是我的偶像，美国政府玩什么猴子戏，那里可能逃得过他的眼
不过他也算给住面子Obama了，一开场就说Obama做了正确的事

之后才把他真正的看法说出来：

1。他没法预测经济几时会好转
2。stress test 只是猴子戏，他根本不屑
3。经济数据根本没有好转的迹象

路人j

原帖由 tanhy 于 2-5-2009 11:18 PM 发表
股神不愧是我的偶像，美国政府玩什么猴子戏，那里可能逃得过他的眼
不过他也算给住面子Obama了，一开场就说Obama做了正确的事

之后才把他真正的看法说出来：

1。他没法预测经济几时会好转
2。stress test 只 ...

可是米国还是升了44点～

tanhy

Bank of America plans to raise $10 billion in capital: report

• On Sunday May 3, 2009, 9:32 pm EDT

• Buzz up! 
• Print

Related:

• Bank of America Corporation
• , Citigroup, Inc.
• , PNC Financial Services Group Inc.

[size=1em]NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC - News) is working on plans to raise more than $10 billion in fresh capital, even as it and Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C - News) launch last-ditch attempts to convince the U.S. government they do not need to bolster their balance sheets, the Financial Times reported.
[size=77%][size=1em]Reuters - The Bank of America Tower in New York, April 29, 2009. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid ...

Related Quotes
SymbolPriceChangeBAC8.700.00

C2.970.00

PNC37.820.00

WFC19.610.00

[size=1em]Citing people close to the situation, the paper said that Citi, Bank of America and at least two other lenders will on Monday attempt to convince the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve that the findings of "stress tests" into their financial health were too pessimistic.
[size=1em]Bank of America, which has had $45 billion in government aid, was found to need well in excess of $10 billion, the Financial Times reported on its website on Sunday, citing sources.
[size=1em]Regional lenders Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC - News) and PNC Financial (NYSE:PNC - News) were also among the banks that would need to raise more capital unless they could persuade the authorities their findings were wrong, the paper reported, citing people close to the situation.
[size=1em]Nineteen U.S. banks are undergoing a stress test, designed to ensure these institutions have enough capital to withstand the recession. Banks received preliminary results of the test last week, and many are now negotiating with the Fed over whether they have enough tangible common equity, a measure of capital strength.
[size=1em]Analysts believe the government will say all 19 banks are solvent when the results are announced on May 7, but that some banks need to raise more capital than others to cushion themselves if the recession worsens.
[size=1em]Citi and Bank of America are the likeliest to need more capital, analysts have said.
[size=1em]The Wall Street Journal earlier reported that Citi may need to raise as much as $10 billion.
[size=1em]Bank of America officials were not immediately available to comment on the report.
[size=1em]A Fed spokesperson declined to comment on the FT report.
[size=1em](Reporting by Anupreeta Das and Mark Felsenthal; Editing by Richard Chang)
[size=1em]继Citi后，BOA也来个10亿
[size=1em]今日STI和香港的暴升，更让我相信谢国忠的话

tanhy

看来Citi 和 BOA 已经肯定要讨钱了Wells Fargo 因该也是，否则老巴也不会在那里骂
这次的不理性暴升，使我更坚定认为FED会叫更多银行讨钱
至于讨钱会不会触发跌势？是时候看谢国忠的预言会不会成真

葉芬

卡帖。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。

tanhy

卡住了，搞什么飞机？
吊在半空中

tanhy

BofA may face $34 billion shortfallRegulators believe the bank needs to significantly boost its capital to withstand the economic downturn, reports say.EMAIL  |  &#160RINT  |   SHARE  |   RSS



Last Updated: May 6, 2009: 5:01 AM ET

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- The U.S. government isn't due to reveal the results of its stress tests on banks until Thursday, but leaked results are painting a troubling picture.
Regulators have determined that Bank of America (BAC,Fortune 500) may need roughly $34 billion in additional capital, several reports published late Tuesday said, citing sources familiar with the results.
Bank of America officials declined to comment, the reports said.
The requirement to raise billions more in capital is likely to add pressure on Bank of America's chief executive Ken Lewis, who was ousted as chairman of the struggling bank last week.
0:00 /1:18Cleaning up the banks
Regulators are due to officially release the results of their so-called stress tests on 19 of the largest U.S. banks Thursday.
In the run-up to the official release, speculation has been brewing that anywhere between 10 and 14 of the banks could be forced to boost their capital.
Attention has been focused particularly on Bank of America and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), which is believed to face an approximately $10 billion gap, according to reports.
Regional banks -- including Birmingham, Ala.-based Regions Financial (RF, Fortune 500), Cincinnati's Fifth Third Bank (FITB, Fortune 500) and SunTrust Financial (STI, Fortune 500) of Atlanta -- are also widely believed to need more funding  
这几天STI暴升，已经完全超出了常理
唯一的解释就是，回光反照

tanhy

昨天爆出BOA可能要筹34B, 股价不跌反起，何解？我推测可能是因为在这段时间内，银行要稳住股价，否则吸引不到私人投资者转换
Fed规定银行要在6月9号前提出筹钱的计划，换句话说，stress test result 出了后，股价可能不会跌
真正的时刻是在1个月后
不过只是猜测，只有Bernake才知道几时会爆

tanhy

有时候会想，股市就是这样，永远不会让你猜到下一步会整样跑不过基金能够炒股，石油，却没法持久，所以最后还是会回归基本
套一句NBA的明言，I LOVE THIS GAME

[ 本帖最后由 tanhy 于 7-5-2009 08:00 AM 编辑 ]