【TOPGLOV 7113 交流专区】顶级手套

pya_ch

原帖由 tan81 于 21-1-2008 12:32 PM 发表
我觉得我们的讨论，也许会陷入膠着的状况。
问题在于，有没有人理解手套厂的运作和实地考察。
我虽然是工程师，却未曾有机会到手套厂看过。不过有位前辈是在Kossan做的。
可以问他的意见。

对我而言，制造业有 ...

其实话虽讨论,
但是大部分时间是限于胶着的,
因为会开声发表意见的都是有着自己主见的人,
会被左右的一般只有读帖的中立份子,
所以啊,还是看戏

invest_klse

原帖由 tan81 于 21-1-2008 12:32 PM 发表
...
有Supermax 的 CashFlow 记录吗？

supermx 的 cashflow 应该也是 net from operation < investment。
kossan 的呢，应该是刚好平衡。

其实，这跟它们的扩充策略有关。topglov、supermx 属于激进型扩充，kossan 是稳健型。

Mr.Business

原帖由 tan81 于 21-1-2008 12:32 PM 发表
我觉得我们的讨论，也许会陷入膠着的状况。
问题在于，有没有人理解手套厂的运作和实地考察。
我虽然是工程师，却未曾有机会到手套厂看过。不过有位前辈是在Kossan做的。
可以问他的意见。

对我而言，制造业有 ...

invest_klse

原帖由 tan81 于 21-1-2008 12:32 PM 发表
...
对我而言，制造业有资金可以自供自给，是难于理解的。 ...

大家请搞清楚状况。

目前的 topglov是处于积极扩充状态。
这种情形下的cashflow，是跟刚刚创立公司时类似的。投入的现金必定大于营运收入。
这时候你们要求它的 cashflow自给自足，好象不太合理。

看看 topglov的数据，过去几年，它的营业额 CAGR 大约 40％。
假设它的资产回酬率不变，其 asset 增长率该要和这差不多。

如果你要求它的长期保持 operation cash > investment cash，除非：
(1) 它的 ROA 大于 40％（更正确来说，应该是 net operational cash / incurred asset 大于 40％）
(2) 放慢增长，使其增长率低于ROA。

我觉得：
(1)的情况近乎不可能。
(2)的情况不是大多数人想看到的，不过却是 topglov以后必经的阶段。

8years

如果“放慢增长”这情况出现，不知道现在的pe应该到什么地方呢？？

34350

大家如此很精彩的分析,厉害,真是佩服了  
之前的 PRIVATE PLACEMENT 会不会是因为有计划要买橡胶园才发出的, 而最后又因为价钱太高而暂时搁置了.
顶级依然是一间还有在赚钱的公司而且又有成长, 对于未来的资金应该是不会有问题吧?
至于回购股票呢,早期的 IOI 与 PBBANK 也是有强力的回够过股票,那时候很多基金都在抛售他们 ,而回购都是在15/16 以上的本益比,顶级还是一间有成长的公司,PE 是比较难跌到12 或 10 以下吧,不过也是很难讲,因为在马来西亚是会比较缺少外资的资金的.

Mr.Business

令吉强劲侵蚀赚幅 伺机抛售顶级手套机构
二零零八年一月二十日 晚上六时四分

（吉隆坡20日讯）达证券行在一份投资报告中，维持“脱售”顶级手套机构有限公司（TOPGLOV）的建议，并将目标价定在6.20令吉，这较现有股价出现9.73%的潜在赚益。

基于胶汁价格上升以及令吉汇价强劲，我们衡量了对该集团的好处及坏处后发觉其赚益遭受侵蚀，因此将之前对它的08与09财政年预测，分别轻微调低3%至1亿 2400万令吉以及5.7%至1亿4850万令吉。尽管预测胶手套需求出现增长，但是令吉汇价强劲是冲击集团营收的主要因素。若以2008年每股盈利42 仙的15倍股值作为基准，那么其合理价是6.20令吉。就算加上周息率，其潜在总回酬依然少过10%，因此维持售出建议。

顶级手套在巴生的第19间工厂已在去年12月落成。集团管理层暗示，首先在今年4月在该厂增加多4条生产线，然后陆续增加至总共16条生产线。最终该厂的生产线高达330 条，而每年的产量是290亿4000万件手套。该项扩充行动占总产能的5%，现时的设备使用率大约是80%，在未来2年内其使用率将有上升空间。

2因素支持集团进行扩充计划

首先，虽然顶级手套坐拥1亿5340万令吉，但是它却欠下一大堆债务。这种情况经已在上个财政年发生。之前集团斥下巨资用来融资第15与第19间工厂的扩充计划，该第15间工厂是坐落在中国。该项扩充计划成本需要另外2500万令吉。因此，集团剩下资金至少有1亿2800万令吉，而该笔款项将会用作削减债务之用。若在未来没有任何扩充行动，最乐观的看法是资本回退予股东，不过这种情况出现的机会是很微的。

其次是，过去3年每年的全球胶手套需求增长率是介于10至12%。基于这个趋势，集团管理层预测整体胶手套工业将会持续增长。尽管美国经济前景暗淡，但是集团在当地仍占有30%的市场份额，预测全球对胶手套的需求是以10%来增长。我们同意该集团将会受惠于上述的大部分增长，因它在全球市场拥有24%的市场份额。胶手套需求的下跌空间是有限的，因为它是必需品兼且免受经济不景所影响。

由于受到上述2个因素的支持，我们相信该集团的扩充计划是非常之实用。但在较早前，集团在这个课题上给予我们混淆的信息。这阻碍我们对该集团通过并购或扩充产能的计划下，制订一个更具体的结论。

在过去2年，配合原油价格上涨，所有商品价格都水涨船高，而胶汁亦不例外。胶汁价格占胶手套的生产成本60%，前者对生产成本以及集团赚益非常之重要。但是该集团强调，它将80%的胶汁价格上涨所造成的成本上升转嫁予客户。我们经以向上修订胶汁平均价格由之前的每公斤4.98令吉增至5.37令吉。即使上述价格轻微上升，它将侵蚀集团的赚益，因该集团不是将所有升幅转嫁予客户身上。我们认为侵蚀赚幅将在有限程度上被集团营收增长以纾缓每股盈利压力下获得补偿。

之前提及的数据是基于1美元兑3.30令吉的兑换率来计算。但是我们预测令吉汇率将会强稳，估计今年美元兑令吉介于3.20至3.10 不是没有可能的。令吉强稳的主要原因是预料美国经济将会逆转。加上原油价格上升，对当地经济无疑是雪上加霜。与此同时，预测大马今年的国内生产总值（GDP）将会增长6.2%。我国经济回弹相对美国经济衰退，这有助令吉兑美元汇价上涨。简单来说，令吉兑美元每涨10仙，顶级手套的赚益就下跌 1.6%。汇率波动风险不像胶价上涨可以随便转嫁予客户。

2年前，顶级手套的44%收益是来自美国。当地市场是该集团的最长期目标市场。之后，它采用开拓全球市场的策略下，将美国市场份额显著地降至30%。我们对于它拥有一个平衡的地缘收益组合感到高兴。这给予集团管理层较佳的导向来控制其营收。拉丁美洲与中国能提供更佳的因素予集团进行销售，首先是因为集团非常专注在拉丁美洲的市场行销策略，其次是中国经济日益旺盛是对胶手套需求上升的原动力。

http://www.kwongwah.com.my/news/2008/01/20/94.html

留下眼镜

压根儿都不提和美国Tillotson的纠纷。Supermax和它的协议如果延伸到全球市场，没有理由Topglov只放弃美国市场就没事。

Mr.Business

Top Glove现在形势不好。。。这个时候就要看谁的耐性比较好了。。。

Notice of Shares Buy Back - Immediate Announcement

Reference No CS-080121-83810

Company Name	:	TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD
Stock Name	:	TOPGLOV
Date Announced	:	21/01/2008

Date of buy back	:	21/01/2008
Description of shares purchased	:	Ordinary Shares of RM0.50
Total number of shares purchased (units)	:	23,000
Minimum price paid for each share purchased (RM)	:	5.600
Maximum price paid for each share purchased (RM)	:	5.700
Total consideration paid (RM)	:	129,260.00
Number of shares purchased retained in treasury (units)	:	23,000
Number of shares purchased which are proposed to be cancelled (units)	:	0
Cumulative net outstanding treasury shares as at to-date (units)	:	4,914,500
Adjusted issued capital after cancellation (no. of shares) (units)	:	0

Mr.Business

今年不是出口年。。。

21-01-2008: Strengthening ringgit to squeeze semicon players

by Sharmila Ganapathy

KUALA LUMPUR: The continuing appreciation of the ringgit against the greenback will squeeze profit margins of export-heavy Malaysian electronics firms, particularly semiconductor players.

Analysts are expecting a contraction in end-user electronics sales this year, with the US recession and global economic slowdown looming in the horizon.

Global research firm Gartner Inc forecasts worldwide semiconductor equipment spending will fall 9.9% to US$40.3 billion (RM133 billion) this year across all segments, including wafer fab, packaging and assembly and automated test equipment.

Think-tank Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) last week forecasted that the ringgit would eventually touch 3.00 to a dollar this year.

The strengthening ringgit, coupled with slowing retail electronics sales, will impact local electronics firms, analysts said.

“Power management and communication chip companies will be severely impacted,” said an analyst at RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd.

“The semiconductor market will pick up in the first half of the year due to demand from China for displays and communication devices for the Beijing Olympics, but it will be short lived,” he said.

However, post-Olympics, the Chinese government could increase rates to curb inflation, hence consumer spending is expected to decline after the Olympics, he added.

One company that will be hit hard by the appreciating ringgit is Malaysian Pacific Industries Bhd (MPI), said an analyst with a bank-backed research house. “The company’s entire revenues are US dollar-based, while only 30% of its costs are ringgit-denominated, he said.

“Additionally, its operations in China are not enjoying the kind of cost advantages it should, because it is looking at coastal areas. Its costs in China are fairly comparable with its operations here in Malaysia,” he added.

A CIMB Research report last November said MPI was making efforts to cut costs by spending on equipment to enhance productivity and discontinuing lower-end products.

“MPI is largely constrained from raising selling prices as there is little product differentiation from its competitors,” CIMB said in the report.

Local firms tied to US-based chip manufacturer Intel Corporation will also be impacted. Intel shares fell 12% last Wednesday after reporting weaker 4Q results.

“We see automation firms like Pentamaster Corporation Bhd and LKT Industrial Bhd impacted by Intel trimming its expenses,” the RHB Research analyst said.

Uchi Technologies Bhd, which exports coffee modules that control coffee machines, will also see its earnings hurt. “A 1% fall in the US dollar would cause Uchi’s earnings to fall 1.7%,” he said.

The analyst with the bank-backed research house agreed that Uchi’s earnings would be marred by the ringgit appreciation.

“Its coffee modules unit growth is still strong. However, it remains to be seen if it is able to price in the strengthening ringgit into its new and existing contracts,” he said.

Another company to feel the pinch of the firming ringgit, though at a lesser extent, will be Unisem Bhd. The semiconductor packaging player will feel an earnings bite although demand remains strong for its products.

“We don’t see a slowdown in growth prospects and earnings. AIT (Advanced Interconnect Technologies) is a good acquisition and will drive their growth. Their business in China will also help mitigate the impact of the currency mismatch,” the analyst said.

The RHB Research analyst meanwhile said Unisem’s independent wafer bumping services also put it in good stead.

He added that Globetronics Technology Bhd was also expected to fare better than many of its peers.

Mr.Business

原帖由 留下眼镜 于 21-1-2008 01:51 PM 发表
压根儿都不提和美国Tillotson的纠纷。Supermax和它的协议如果延伸到全球市场，没有理由Topglov只放弃美国市场就没事。

请问你清楚美国Tillotson的纠纷是何回事吗？ Topglov现在照样可以出口Nitrile手套去美国的。。。


Malaysian, Indonesian Glove Companies Contest Tillotson's Patent Claim                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
By Kristy Inus

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 1 (Bernama) -- Seven Malaysian and one Indonesian glove producers have teamed up to contest US-based Tillotson Corp'sclaim that there has been a patent infringement by the companies on nitrile gloves exported to the U.S.
  
There is a possibility that more companies will join the group.

The joint committee inclusive of Malaysian's Top Glove Corp Bhd,Hartalega Holdings Bhd, Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd, Laglove (M) SdnBhd, Riverstone Resources Sdn Bhd, Smart Glove Holdings Sdn Bhd, YTY Holdings Sdn Bhd and Indonesia's PT Shamrock Manufacturing Corp, is making its move through the Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association (MARGMA).

"We hope to group more (companies) to counter Tillotson's claims and the U.S. lawyers we've engaged have already put things into action.

"We want to invalidate the patent, and will make our stand based on arguments why we do not think the patent is valid," Top Glove executive director K.M. Lee told Bernama when met at a mock-cheque presentation here, today.

Tillotson Corp lodged a complaint with the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) on May 30, requesting investigation into possible intellectual property infringement among 30 global nitrile glove manufacturers, dealers and importers, including more than 10 Malaysian companies.

The U.S company is asking US$2 royalty for every 1,000 nitrile gloves imported into the U.S.

Before this, Top Glove which is the world's largest rubber glovemaker, has already said that it was expecting no material implications to its financial results from the allegations. Its nitrile glove salesto U.S. makes up less than three percent of its total turnover.

"I also want to clarify that Tillotson did not actually win all the previous suits as reported ... Most of these cases were not actually taken to court and they were settled outside through voluntary agreements," Lee said.

"With a big number in our group, I believe we can succeed in the contest against the claims," he added.

A case like this could take up one and a half years before settlement but with the nearing expiry date for Tillotson which claims the US patent for nitrile gloves until 2010, a positive outcome isexpected.

When ITC makes a decision, it will also not affect the company as no backdated payments are expected to be made, Lee added.

-- BERNAMA

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 21-1-2008 07:46 PM 编辑 ]

留下眼镜

你很爱名，人家股友是拿真金白银来投资的，总要对他们有一点责任感。

Mr.Business

不是很清楚你的意思，请解释一下。谢谢。

Mr.Business

origen兄介绍的博客文章。。。

Not-So-Top Glove

Business Times - The world's biggest manufacturer of rubber gloves, Top Glove Corp Bhd, has set aside RM100 million this year to buy a rival and expand its factories. Currently, TG produces 29 billion pieces of gloves a year, which is about 24 per cent share of the global market. It aims to capture 35 per cent by December 2010. The estimated annual demand by then is 160 billion gloves. Cheong Guan, who is also the finance director, said that TG expects to boost its net profit by 22 per cent to RM125 million for the fiscal year to August 31 2008. TG is also confident that a slowing US economy will not affect its business because rubber gloves are a necessity.

Caveats:
1) A slowdown is a slowdown, how not to be affected. 30 per cent of TG sales comes from the US, rubber gloves.

2) Patent suit pending - Even though the company is optimistic of winning.The reality may indicate otherwise. On May 30 last year, the US-based Tillotson Corp filed a complaint against all nitrile glove manufacturers, distributors or importers worldwide, claiming to be the patent holder for nitrile gloves until 2010. Eight glovemakers, through the Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association (Margma), are contesting Tillotson's claim. TG is part of the group. However, Supermax Corp Bhd, which is not part of the group, has agreed to settle and pay royalty to Tillotson.

3) TG has been able to offset USD weakness by raising prices: not going forward in a slowdown.

4) Latex prices still pushing higher putting pressure on margins.

5) Net cash per share only 33 sen and will go to 24 sen next year.

6) Capacity being boosted by 25% p.a. in 2008 and 2009, more stock going into a down cycle.

7) Reduction of tax rebates for China exports will hurt expansion business model.

8) Its gearing is low as its acquisition spree has been funded by new shares, however that creates a huge free float of about 60% with many substantial shareholders of previously acquired companies. They won't be sitting around waiting for the grand master plan to pan out.

9) Net cash flow is about only RM10m in 2008 and is projected to jump to RM50m in 2009. Still a projection with many variables.

10) Receivable is about 15%, watch for danger signs if it gets closer to 20%.

11) Looking for rubber plantations hints at margin pressures. Looking to do share buybacks hints of even bigger problems.

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/

留下眼镜

回答像林博士。

我也谢谢，就是因为看到你为Topglov尽说好话，觉得不对路，所以才卖出。

Mr.Business

股票投资本来就是买卖自负。哈。

vampire2000

现在RM5.30了。看看TOPGLOVE浪费了多少钱？

Mr.Business

应该是公司自己在顶着。。。

TOPGLOV
(7113) 12:33:20
Last Done        5.500
Change        -0.100
Day High        5.550
Day Low        5.300
Best Buy        5.400
Best Sell        5.500
Volume(Lot)        1928

chengyk

写给 topglove 的信

Hi,
    I am a small shareholder of TopGlove. As I know, TopGlove has been
doing share buy back every day  for close to 2 months. Is it wasting our
money for this action? Why not use the money in proper way like
expanding the business and others? Is the management more concern about
the share price rather than the business? I just curious on the action
of share buy back. Thanks and goodday.

Best regards,
chengyk


回复:
Thank you for your email.

The purpose of the share buy back is to stabilize the supply and demand
of Top Glove's shares in the open market and thereby support its
fundamental value. Top Glove is using the surplus cash to buy back the
shares.

Share buy back is part of the corporate exercise of a listed company but
Top Glove will not lose its main focus on its main business, which is
manufacturing of gloves, which can be seen from its latest result, where
the group continues to grow by 20%.

We thank you for your suggestion.

Best regards
The Investor Relation Team

我想应该是我问的问题不太好 !!!! 答案很表面 !!!

Mr.Business

Top Glove的email address是？

你应该讲你很不爽，看他有什么回应？