tan81个人专区2--季度检讨--红红的09年1Q(48页）謝絕灌水

老散一名

原帖由 tan81 于 6-3-2009 12:20 AM 发表
谢谢老散的指教。你说的对。
如果你早一年说这些就好了。
我是认真的。

其实，我在这个组合犯了许多错误。
例如根据B。Graham的原则，不应该买Shell，Bursa 和Granflo。
这3家公司都是我犯下的错误。没有纪律 ...

哈哈，如果我早一年說你也未必會聽。
今天你覺得有道理是因為你試了，自己得到答案心中有數。
所以看到老散我說的有感觸而已。
並不是老散給到你什麼。
人總是要累積經驗的。

tan81

用一年的时间和RM5K来换，有很贵一下。

tan81

一個一個的 cycle 來打大藍籌

这个策略很正确。不过是否应该用在美国或香港会比较好呢？
我担心大马有许多蓝筹都是炕人，一去不回头的。

老散一名

原帖由 tan81 于 6-3-2009 12:58 AM 发表
用一年的时间和RM5K来换，有很贵一下。

貴，老散我用左 100k 多買一個經驗都係醬呀。

tan81

那是因为我的22% 和你的22%  不一样。

你的本钱很厚。

檀主

請問散大大在股市打拼了幾年了???  

老散一名

原帖由 tan81 于 6-3-2009 01:00 AM 发表
一個一個的 cycle 來打大藍籌

这个策略很正确。不过是否应该用在美国或香港会比较好呢？
我担心大马有许多蓝筹都是炕人，一去不回头的。

係投資都係有風險 ge 啦，邊度有 100％ 安全 ge 投資呢。
算自己要 ge 回酬和可以俾佢 ge 時間和自己可以接受 ge 風險。
認為可以唔係打囉。

p/s 找日想找 8年請教下點解可以醬敢死。
      因為老散我信股市反彈時係美國帶頭。
      老散我唔敢去係因為唔熟美國，要多學習多學習。

老散一名

原帖由 檀主 于 6-3-2009 01:10 AM 发表
請問散大大在股市打拼了幾年了???  

哈哈，在股市打拼了幾多年能代表什麼嗎？

tan81

就星期日。你逼他来。你出动了，他一定会给脸你老人家。
我们全部人都可以受益。

到时，我亲自夹一些好料给你。
要Beer的话，就要自备了。

老散一名

原帖由 tan81 于 6-3-2009 01:14 AM 发表
就星期日。你逼他来。你出动了，他一定会给脸你老人家。
我们全部人都可以受益。

到时，我亲自夹一些好料给你。
要Beer的话，就要自备了。

哈哈，老散我唔敢。
我都未必能來。

檀主

起碼散大大有的是經驗．．．．小的只是想向大大取經而已　　
有怪莫怪．．小的不識世界．．．．

宇晴

老豆！
好耐冇同你傾偈jor...
你點啊...？
仲係咁忙啊??

人生真真係冇幾個十年。
我係好驚到頭來會後悔jek...

老散一名

原帖由 宇晴 于 6-3-2009 01:33 AM 发表
老豆！
好耐冇同你傾偈jor...
你點啊...？
仲係咁忙啊??

人生真真係冇幾個十年。
我係好驚到頭來會後悔jek...

哈哈，人生唔好怕後悔，人生係怕遺憾 j 。

tan81

原帖由 tan81 于 6-3-2009 12:27 AM 发表
11:00 am : Stocks have fallen to fresh session lows, threatening to challenge the multiyear lows set earlier this week.

美国股市刚破6700点。我们看看马股还有多强。



那天拿不到 ...

美国的失业率是25年新高。
美股今天还有可能狂跌。

可惜的是马股没有开市。可能逃过一劫。
不过，我还是想看马股打算顶多久。

ThermoFisher

马股命不久矣。。。


寫15年最大跌幅
1月出口猛挫28%

（吉隆坡6日訊）全球經濟低迷導致我國1月份出口表現比預期差，按年大挫27.8%，寫下15年來最大跌幅！

貿工部公佈的數據顯示，我國今年1月份出口值達383億令吉，大按年勁挫27.8%、按月則跌16.9%，電子與電器產品及原產品外銷儘皆告跌。

“彭博社”早前向16名經濟師進行調查，中值預測我國1月份出口下跌22.4%。我國12月出口跌幅為14.9%。

新加坡Forecast經濟師陳瓊安娜指出，全球經濟成長前景不樂觀，未來數月出口或繼續受壓。

我國1月份總貿易額達677億7000萬令吉，比去年同期下跌29.7%，惟我國仍錄得88億3000萬令吉盈余，是自1997年11月以來，第135次錄得貿易盈余。

文告指出，新加坡、日本、美國、中國及韓國，是我國5大出口地，佔總出口51.7%分額。

我國對東協出口達91億8000萬令吉，或佔總出口24%，但比去年同期卻挫跌38.1%，主要是電子與電器產品、精煉石油產品、化學與化學產品、金屬製品及石油等出口減少。

進口大跌32%

我國1月份對美國出口總值達48億令吉，比去年同期的70億4000萬令吉減少32%。

我國電子與電器產品雖仍佔總出口35.9%或137億4000萬令吉，但比去年1月份重挫33%。

我國1月份進口額則大跌32%，報294億7000萬令吉，相比去年12月則滑落14.7%。

其中，中介產品佔總進口67.4%，資本產品及消費品則各佔16.4%及8.2%。

我國從東協進口的產品值共達68億7000萬令吉，達總進口23.3%。

goodluck88

其实佳礼这边不知道有没有网友计算在这几个月期间，我们的EPF到底每天贡献了多少的成交值？
每天都看到EPF在changes in shareholding的踪影，买了又卖，卖了又买

tan81

不关我的事。
我的ＥＰＦ好像还不够ＲＭ２Ｋ。

买了又卖，卖了又买
不这么做，自己人在外面开的投资公司，怎么会有油水抽？

tan81

那么快点请你的乌鸦嘴预言几时。
预言股价上升就那么厉害，预言股价下跌，还没有看过你准的。

tan81

Worst is yet to come for job market

    * Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
    * Friday March 6, 2009, 9:39 am EST

    *
      Buzz up!
    * Print

It's no secret that the job market is bad.

The government reported Friday that the unemployment rate rose to a 25-year high of 8.1% in February, as employers cut 651,000 jobs from payrolls.

Still, as bad as those numbers are, some have argued that this jobs downturn is not as bad as the early 1980s. The unemployment rate peaked at 10.8% in late 1982.

But several experts say it would be a mistake to come to that conclusion. They argue that unemployment rate only hints at why this jobs downturn is worse than any since the Great Depression.

Steep decline

Over the last six months, 3.3 million jobs have been lost. That's the largest six-month job loss since the end of World War II.

Even adjusting for the large growth in the nation's job base in recent decades, this is still the biggest six-month job loss since March 1975.

Economists say the steepness of this decline will make it tougher for the job market to improve any time soon. The increasing job losses create a downward spiral in which businesses, faced with lower demand because people can't afford to buy their products, lay off even more people.

"The dramatic hemorrhaging of jobs means we're in this for the long-haul," said Heidi Shierholz, economist with Economic Policy Institute, a Washington think tank supported by foundations and labor unions.

Another reason why this downturn is more painful is because the layoffs have come from companies in virtually all parts of the economy.

"There's no place to hide in terms of job losses," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute. "And when measuring the impact of job losses, it's very important how pervasive the losses are. That's what makes this the worst since the Great Depression."

Achuthan points to something called the diffusion index of employment change, which showed that three out of four business sectors cut jobs in February. Job losses were even slightly more widespread in December and January, meaning that 83% of industries have lost workers over the last three months.

According to Achuthan, this was the first time in the past 30 years that there have been job losses in more than two-thirds of the sectors of the economy. When the recession started in December 2007, about 58% of industries were still adding jobs.

Long-term pain

February marked the 14th straight month of job losses, the third-longest streak since 1939.

This long period of job losses is swelling unemployment rolls to record levels and causing long-term unemployment to rise sharply.

In February, 3.4% of the nation's workers had been out of work for 15 or more weeks, with nearly 2% of that total being out of work at least six months. Several states' unemployment funds have run out money as a result.

And most economists think the job market woes are far from over. Many economists are projecting job losses through the end of the year.

But even when the job losses end, the unemployment rate is likely to continue rising. That's because the modest hiring that will follow the downturn won't be enough to make up for population growth and unemployed Americans who had become discouraged starting to look for jobs again.

With that in mind, Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, said he thinks the unemployment rate will hit a peak of above 10% sometime in 2010.

Underemployed, or discouraged

Finally, economists caution that the unemployment rate only captures a portion of Americans unable to find full-time jobs. It doesn't count people working at part-time jobs but cannot find a full-time job, for example.

And the average number of hours worked per week is now at a record low, according to Labor Department readings.

The unemployment rate also doesn't count many people who tell the Labor Department they want to work but haven't looked for work recently.

The government has a so-called underemployment reading which counts people working part-time jobs for economic reasons rather than by choice, as well as some who have become discouraged from looking for work.

That measure hit 14.8% in February - the highest reading since the Labor Department started calculating it back in 1994.

But there are other discouraged job seekers who are not looking because they don't think they can find work, have decided to return to school, or for other personal reasons. Counting all of those people in the underemployment rate takes it to 16.7% in February.

Comparable figures aren't available from the Labor Department for the pre-1994 period, but there are full-year government estimates for those outside the labor force who wanted to work in earlier years.

Using those figures, the underemployment rate reached a high of 21.5% in November 1982. While that's higher than this February, it's probably not fair to compare the current reading to the worst result of that downturn since most believe this jobs crisis is far from over.

"No one is going to tell you we're at the trough," said Baker.

ThermoFisher

2月份近70万人失业 美经济复苏无期
2009/03/05 17:59:59
●南洋商报




（华盛顿5日综合）美国联邦储备局４日发表的全国经济形势调查报告说，美国经济在１月中旬至２月底这段时间里继续恶化，且短期内不会有任何明显复苏的迹象。

这份报告根据美联储所属１２家地区储备银行的最新调查结果编制而成，其中所包含信息是２月２３日之前收集的。

报告说，在１２家储备银行的调查报告中，两份报告认为当地经济“依然疲软”，１０份报告认为经济情况偏向于恶化，而且这种恶化趋势覆盖面相当广，只有食品和药品等少数行业例外。

报告认为，美国经济在近期好转的希望相当微弱，要到２００９年底，甚至２０１０年初才可能出现复苏迹象。

美联储每年８次发表这份被称为《褐皮书》的调查报告。在预定于本月中旬召开的美联储局下次货币政策决策例会上，这份报告将是重要的参考材料。

另一方面，美国一项最新统计显示，2月份美国私人企业共裁员69万7000人，远远超过专家预测的63万人。

金融动荡列头号威胁

数据由知名企业服务公司ADP公布，裁员主要集中在服务业和制造业。服务业裁员35万9000人；制造业裁员33万8000人。

另一方面，美国已把国际金融动荡列为头号安全威胁，美国中央情报局自上周三起每天向总统奥巴马汇报“经济情报简报”。

英国媒体也报道，英国当局担忧失业潮等问题引发暴力示威，已下令安全部门制定应变计划，一旦失控即派遣军队进驻各大城市。美国国家情报总监丹尼斯·布莱尔日前在出席参院情报委员会例会时表示，经济危机已取代恐怖主义，成为美国最大安全挑战。

“美国现时面临的最大安全威胁是，全球金融危机和它将带来的地缘政治后果。”

丹尼斯表示，希望在自己一年一度提交给国会的“世界安全评估报告”中加入对于经济衰退的关注，其中应包含下列问题：俄罗斯的稳定是否会面临威胁？印度等亚洲国家的情况将如何发展？非洲是否会因此出现大规模的人道主义危机？他还希望，对经济危机的关注不仅仅是以上的简单罗列。