Technical News|Gdmfx Brokerage|Daily

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: EURO SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKNESS AFTER ECB PRESSER. BEARISH PRESSURE INCREASES
  

EUR/USD

Forex News: The ECB left the interest rate unchanged as expected and the Euro had a mixed reaction, first spiking higher and then retracing into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The US Dollar on the other hand, was boosted by better than expected Retail Sales and this contributed to the drop.

Technical Outlook

The pair is now showing a candle with a very long upper wick, which is a clear sign of rejection; however, the US Dollar is still lacking strong momentum and the pair is testing the 50 period EMA, so we are dealing with a ‘bounce or break’ scenario. If the Moving Average will be broken, the pair may try to break 1.1735 again and otherwise, we expect to see a move above 1.1825 and closer to 1.1875. Today we don’t have major announcements, so we may see a ranging trading session.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Industrial Production will be the most notable release of the say, scheduled at 2:15 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 0.3%, lower than the previous 0.9%. The report tracks changes in the total value of goods produced by factories and has a positive impact on the greenback if it posts a higher than expected value.



GBP/USD

The Pound was boosted in the early part of yesterday’s trading session by upbeat British Retail Sales but it had a muted reaction to the BOE decision to maintain rates unchanged, as expected. Later in the session the US Dollar recovered some of the early losses and took the pair into support.

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bounce at 1.3450 can be considered a simple retracement so the outlook remains bullish. Today’s price action will likely take place between the 50 EMA and 1.3450 and a break of one of these boundaries will probably trigger a stronger move in that direction. However, the economic calendar is light today and this could translate into a slow session.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today so the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS, EUROZONE CPI EYED FOR NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair came under pressure Friday after failing to break above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and finished the week in negative territory. The US Dollar has now erased all losses incurred after the FOMC Meeting.



Technical Outlook

Price is now very close to a bullish trend line and early in today’s session we expect to see a break or a bounce at the said trend line. A bounce higher will take price into the 50 EMA and a break will probably trigger a move into 1.1700 territory but given the lack of major economic releases, we don’t expect to see a break of the 50 EMA or 1.1700 support.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurozone Final Consumer Price Index will be released today at 10:00 am GMT and this will be the only notable event of the day. The CPI shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase and acts as the main gauge of inflation but the Final version has a low impact; nonetheless, numbers above the forecast 1.5% usually strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

Friday the pair dropped on the back of Brexit concerns and lost more than 100 pips, finishing the week in negative territory. However, price is still ranging from a longer term perspective and support is still holding.

Technical Outlook

The support zone around 1.3320 – 1.3300 rejected price twice in a relatively short period and now it is being tested again. After Friday’s strong drop, we will likely see a small pullback but as long as the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish, anticipating a break of 1.3320 and a consequent move into 1.3280.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a lacklustre day ahead, without any major economic releases. Brexit talks and negotiations can affect the currency, so caution is recommended.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: FRESH US DOLLAR SELLING PRESSURE SENDS THE PAIRS FLYING. RESISTANCE THREATENED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German political scene was one of the catalysts behind the pair’s push above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average seen yesterday. The US Dollar weakened on concerns regarding the long awaited U.S. tax reform bill.

Technical Outlook

The pair has climbed above the 50 EMA with strong bullish momentum and is now testing the resistance at 1.1825. If this level will be broken, we expect price to climb into 1.1875 region where the Relative Strength Index will probably become overbought, signalling a retracement. If 1.1825 will reject price lower and the bulls cannot keep it above the 50 EMA, we will probably see a return into 1.1735 during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The German IFO Business Climate survey will be today’s highlight for the Euro, showing the opinions of about 7,000 businesses about a 6-month outlook for economic and business conditions in Germany. The time of release is 9:00 am GMT and the expected reading is 117.6; higher numbers show optimism, strengthening the single currency but the impact is low-to-medium.

On the US Dollar side the most notable release will be the Building Permits, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. This is a good indicator of future activity in the construction sector and usually a reading above the forecast 1.28M (annualized number) strengthens the greenback.

GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness was the main driver of yesterday’s price action. The pair erased most of the losses incurred Friday and is now trading above the 50 period EMA once again.

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Technical Outlook

As seen from yesterday’s price behaviour, the pair doesn’t have a clear bias and all moves are reversed even if they look strong at first. Two levels are key for medium term movement: the support around 1.3320 and the resistance at 1.3450. As long as price is trading above the 50 EMA we expect it to reach 1.3450 but until one of the key levels is broken, out bias is mostly neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light economic day ahead, without any major releases scheduled. Price action can be affected by Brexit negotiations so the pair remains high risk.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HOLDS, BEARISH PRESSURE INCREASES. CAN THE US DOLLAR MAKE A COMEBACK?

EUR/USD

Forex News: US Dollar weakness persisted throughout yesterday’s trading session and the pair reversed an earlier drop that found support near the 50 EMA. The German IFO Business Climate survey came slightly below expectations but the impact wasn’t major.

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Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is testing 1.1825 resistance for the second time in a short while but the latest candle is showing a long wick in its upper part, which is a sign of rejection. If the current resistance cannot be broken, we expect to see a drop through the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and a move closer to 1.1735 in the near future. The pair is in a range, so we expect choppy price action until a clear breakout occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales will be released, showing how many houses were sold during the previous month, apart from new buildings. The indicator usually has a low-to-medium impact but higher numbers than the forecast 5.53 Million (annualized number) can strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The Pound bulls failed to keep the pair above the 50 EMA, so yesterday’s trading session was mostly controlled by the bears but price action remained choppy.

Technical Outlook

The failure to continue upward after the initial break of the 50 period EMA shows that bearish pressure is increasing and that we will most likely see a touch of 1.3320 support. The pair remains in a range from a longer term perspective and today’s direction will probably be influenced by the testimony of BOE Governor Carney.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:15 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Carney will testify before the Treasury Select Committee on the topic of the November Financial Stability Report. The event is likely to generate increased volatility, so caution is advised.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: EURO BREAKS OUT. FAKE MOVE OR THE START OF A BULL RUN?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The early part of yesterday’s trading session was choppy and without any major developments; however in the afternoon the Euro bulls managed to take the pair above resistance, despite a better than expected reading for the U.S. Existing Home Sales.

Technical Outlook

The pair is now trading above the resistance at 1.1875 but the bullish move was mostly triggered by the technical side rather than the fundamental because yesterday no major economic data came out. If the bulls can keep price above 1.1875, we will probably see an extended move north, with 1.1945 as target but this will be reached in more than a day probably. A quick return below 1.1875 will negate the bullish momentum and will make 1.1825 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event today will be the release of the Final version of the US Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The GDP measures the annualized change in the total value of services and goods generated by the economy and acts as the main gauge of economic performance but the Final version tends to have the lowest impact. The expected reading is 3.3%, same as previous and higher numbers strengthen the greenback.

GBP/USD

Price action remained choppy throughout yesterday’s session and the testimony of BOE Governor Carney went mostly unnoticed. However the pair climbed above the 50 period EMA and the bias was bullish.

Technical Outlook

Lately the pair’s movement is lacking a clear direction and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is moving almost flat, further showing that the pair is in range mode. Upside momentum is almost non-existent so if the pair cannot break the previous top at 1.3420, we expect to see a drop through the 50 EMA, en route to 1.3320 area.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable Pound affecting release will be the Public Sector Net Borrowing, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. It shows the difference between spending and income for the Government and public corporations but has a medium-to-low impact on the currency; higher values than the forecast 8.3 Billion are beneficial for the Pound because a negative number means surplus and a positive one means deficit.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: CHOPPINESS CONTINUES AS THE PAIRS STRUGGLE TO FIND DIRECTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair remained in a choppy and tight range, without any major developments. The bulls failed to capitalize on the break of resistance and price returned below the level. The lack of major economic announcements contributed to this behaviour.

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.1875 didn’t generate a strong continuation climb and soon the pair retraced lower but the bearish move lacked strong momentum and the entire session was choppy. As long as the pair is still trading above the 50 Exponential Moving Average the bias remains bullish but this doesn’t exclude a drop into the 50 EMA and the support at 1.1825. Another break of 1.1875 resistance should be considered a true break only after a full bullish candle closes above the level.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we have two economic releases that can affect the US Dollar: the Durable Goods Orders scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and the New Home Sales at 3:00 pm GMT. Higher numbers for these indicators usually strengthen the US Dollar but their impact is low-to-medium and are not known to be major market movers. The expected change for the Durable Goods Orders is 2.1% (much better than the previous -0.8%) and the forecast for the New Home Sales is 654K (previous 685K).

GBP/USD

The pair wasn’t affected much by the economic indicators released yesterday but drifted lower and continued to show choppy movement. Price is still in a range, without a clear bias.

Technical Outlook

Until the pair breaks 1.3320 or 1.3420, it can be considered in a range and we can expect to see reversals on the lower time frames. Yesterday price moved below the 50 EMA then tried to return above it but failed and this is a sign that bearish pressure is increasing; however, the last candle also has a long wick, which is a sign of indecision. Our bias is slightly bearish for the short term, anticipating a touch of 1.3320.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Current Account will be released today at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of -21.5 Billion. It measures the difference between imported and exported goods and services and has a medium impact on the Pound. Numbers above expectations usually strengthen the currency.

At the same time the Final version of the British GDP is released but the impact is relatively low. However, higher numbers than the anticipated 0.4% have a positive effect on the Pound.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: MARKETS TAKE A BREATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: After a dip Friday the pair bounced at support and pushed higher but remained in a range. The economic data was mixed and did not have a strong impact on the pair’s direction.

Technical Outlook

Today price action will come to a halt due to the Christmas Holiday. It is possible to see small and/or erratic movement but most Forex brokers around the globe will be closed.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is Christmas Day, so banks across Europe and in the United States will be closed. The markets will take a breather and the fundamental scene will be totally quiet.

GBP/USD

The British Current Account released Friday came below expectations but this didn’t have a notable impact on the pair and overall price action was jerky, with a slight bearish bias, probably due to the approaching of the Winter Holidays.

Technical Outlook

Most markets around the globe will be closed today for Christmas, so price action will come to a stop. Beware of possible traces of liquidity which may trigger short-lived movement.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the U.S. and the rest of Europe, the United Kingdom celebrates Christmas today and no economic releases will take place. Merry Christmas to those who celebrate it!

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: PRICE ACTION RESUMES BUT REMAINS CHOPPY AND UNPREDICTABLE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Markets and banks were closed yesterday due to Christmas and price action came to a total stop. Today some European countries celebrate Boxing Day, so market behaviour will be still uncertain.

Technical Outlook

Price will start to move today but volume will remain thin and price action will be irregular. A technical prediction cannot be made with accuracy but the levels to watch are 1.1875 as resistance and 1.1825 as support. Caution is recommended because we may see alternating periods of very high and very low volatility.

Fundamental Outlook

Most European banks will be still closed today and although U.S. banks will be open, no major economic data will come out and this will surely affect price action.

GBP/USD

The pair didn’t show even the slightest trace of movement yesterday due to Christmas, so we pick up where we left off Friday.

Technical Outlook

Price action will resume today but we don’t expect major developments to take place mostly because volumes will be thin and volatility will be unpredictable. Caution is recommended today and in fact for the remainder of the year.

Fundamental Outlook

UK banks will be closed in observance of Boxing Day and no economic data will be released, which is another reason for irregular and choppy price action.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: TRADING VOLUME REMAINS LOW, U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER MILD MOMENTUM


EUR/USD


Forex News: Price action resumed yesterday but no substantial developments took place, as it was anticipated due to the low trading volumes.





Technical Outlook


The pair moved higher and reached the resistance at 1.1875 but the level couldn’t be broken on several attempts. This doesn’t necessarily mean that 1.1875 is going to hold, because the pair’s direction will remain uncertain until the markets will gather a bit more volume. We expect choppy trading above and below 1.1875 but we cannot rule out a sudden spike generated by the low trading volume.


Fundamental Outlook


The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey will come out today at 3:00 pm GMT, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households about the overall economic situation. Usually a higher number shows optimism and strengthens the US Dollar but given the current situation of thin trading volumes, the impact is more difficult to anticipate; today’s forecast is 128.2.


GBP/USD


As it was expected, price action remained very slow and choppy due to the lack of volume and the pair traded in a very narrow range.





Technical Outlook


Price is moving very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which is flat, so an accurate technical prediction is difficult to make. We expect irregular price action and low trading volumes until the first week of January 2018 but beware of potential spikes.


Fundamental Outlook


Just like the rest of the week, today is a slow day for the Pound because no major economic data will be released.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: PAIRS PICK UP SPEED. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT STILL CHOPPY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair picked up speed yesterday and broke the resistance at 1.1875, trading above 1.1900 at the time of writing. The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey did not have a huge impact on the market and overall volume remained low.




Technical Outlook

Compared to the previous few days, movement was stronger yesterday but volume is still not back to normal and this means that we may see a sharp reversal or a strong climb into 1.1945 – 1.1950. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought and this favours a drop into 1.1875, which may turn into support. Our bias is neutral until volume and volatility return to normal.

Fundamental Outlook

The Chicago PMI will be released today at 2:45 pm GMT, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding overall business conditions in the Chicago area. The survey has a medium impact under normal conditions and higher numbers than the anticipated 62.0 usually generate mild US Dollar strength.

GBP/USD

Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable had a bullish bias yesterday and picked up speed compared to the previous days. However, resistance is still holding and a bounce lower is very possible.




Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3420 stopped yesterday’s rally and the pair is likely to reverse at this level, aiming for the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The bias is mostly neutral and price is still in a range, with low volume overall but a break above 1.3420 will take the pair into 1.3450, which is a level where the chances of a reversal will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic data releases for today so the main price driver will be the technical aspect.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: FINAL TRADING DAY OF 2017!

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair continued on a bullish note yesterday and reached the long term resistance at 1.1945. Part of the reason behind the climb was the low trading volume and soft U.S. economic data.



Technical Outlook

Today is the last trading day of 2017 and this means that we may see irregular price action, possible reversals or even strong directional movement, thus caution is advised through the duration of the day. Strictly from a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index is in overbought territory and price is facing a strong resistance zone (1.1945 – 1.1950), so we expect to see a bounce lower. If 1.1950 is breached, the next big hurdle is 1.2000 but we don’t expect to see a touch of that barrier.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Preliminary Consumer Price Index will be today’s only notable release but due to the fact that it’s the final trading session of the year, the impact of this indicator might be muted. Under normal circumstances a higher reading than the anticipated 0.5% (previous 0.3%) strengthens the Euro; the time of release is 1:00 pm GMT.

GBP/USD

The Pound bulls took the pair above 1.3420 but price paused at the next resistance (1.3450). From a longer-term perspective, the pair is still in a range, without a clear bias.



Technical Outlook

The level at 1.3450 is a key resistance for long term movement, so it’s very possible to see a bounce lower from here but on the other hand, the low trading volume can make it easier for the bulls to break the level. Trading will be affected by end-of-year choppiness, so caution is recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is yet another lacklustre day for the Pound from a fundamental standpoint as no major indicators will be released. We wish you a Happy New Year and a prosperous 2018!

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: NEW YEAR’S DAY BRINGS MARKETS TO A STANDSTILL

EUR/USD

Forex News: The entire last week was bullish and the final trading day of 2017 was no exception. Price broke the key resistance at 1.2000 but then retraced and finished the year very close to the level. The fundamental scene lacked any important releases.



Technical Outlook

Today markets across the globe will be closed and price action will come to a stop. Movement will resume Tuesday.

Fundamental Outlook

Banks in most parts of the globe will be closed, celebrating New Year’s Day and no economic data will be released today.

GBP/USD

Friday the bulls took price more than 100 pips higher, breaking 1.3500 and approaching 1.3550 resistance. The session ended with a bounce at resistance and a move lower but the bias remains bullish.



Technical Outlook

Today price action across the board will come to a stop, celebrating to New Year’s Day and trading will resume Tuesday.

Fundamental Outlook

UK banks and financial institutions will be closed today as well, so the markets will come to a stop and activity will resume tomorrow.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: PRICE ACTION RESUMES FOR THE FIRST TRADING DAY OF 2018

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the market stood still as people around the globe celebrated the New Year, so we pick up where we left off Friday, right on the ley resistance at 1.2000.



Technical Outlook

Price direction is difficult to predict because the markets are still under the influence of low trading volumes. Strictly from a technical point of view, the Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory and the pair is showing rejection after the move above 1.2000. This suggests that a move lower will follow, so it’s possible to see a descent into the previous level at 1.1945 – 1.1950.

Fundamental Outlook

The pair will not be affected today by any notable economic releases and this may be another reason for irregular price action.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair did not move due to New Year celebrations so today we will get a fresh start with the first trading session of 2018.



Technical Outlook

The near-touch of 1.3550 resistance combined with the overbought position of the Relative Strength Index triggered a rejection lower that brought price very close to the psychological level at 1.3500. If this level will be broken, the pair might continue towards 1.3450 but keep in mind that trading volume is still not back to normal and this may translate into irregular or choppy price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI will be released today at 9:30 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers about business conditions in the Manufacturing sector. It acts as a gauge of optimism and higher numbers than the forecast 58.0 usually strengthen the Pound but today’s impact is difficult to anticipate.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: VOLUMES BACK TO NORMAL. US MANUFACTURING PMI AND FOMC MINUTES EYED FOR NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Despite being overbought, the pair continued higher yesterday and even approached 1.2092, which is the highest price reached in 2017. Most of the move was due to US Dollar weakness but part of it was erased in the afternoon.



Technical Outlook

Price is deep in overbought territory and it shows rejection after coming close to last year’s high (1.2092). This suggests that we may see a deeper pullback, possibly into 1.2000 but overall the US Dollar is weak against most of its counterparts and the bias is bullish, so once the retracement is over we expect to see a move into 1.2100 area.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Manufacturing PMI will come out, showing the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers about business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Usually a higher than anticipated number strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is relatively mild; today’s forecast is 58.3.

At 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest rate meeting, outlining the reasons that determined the rate vote. The release has a higher impact if the document contains hints about future monetary policy, so caution is recommended.

GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI released yesterday came below expectations but this didn’t hinder the pair’s climb, which extended into 1.3550 resistance.  



Technical Outlook

Price bounced at 1.3500, turning this level into support and sending the pair above 1.3550 resistance. The next destination will be the resistance zone at 1.3600 – 1.3616 but the Relative Strength Index is overbought, which is an early sign of a potential pullback. Keep in mind that 1.3550 is an important level, so a clear break will probably bring in additional buyers.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected by construction data in the form of the Purchasing Managers’ Index, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT; the survey acts as a gauge of optimism and numbers above expectations usually strengthen the currency, with a medium impact. Today’s forecast is 53.2, while the previous was 53.1.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS RECOVERY SIGNS. KEY SUPPORT TESTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The first part of yesterday’s trading session was controlled by the bears and the FOMC Minutes added some strength to the US Dollar, revealing that some Fed officials were concerned about low inflation expectations but the majority still expect inflation to rise to 2%.




Technical Outlook

The long awaited retracement finally occurred yesterday and now the pair is testing the level at 1.2000. Both oscillators are showing good downside momentum so we expect price to break the current level and to move closer to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The bias is still bullish and the current move is just a needed retracement but if price moves below the 50 EMA, the uptrend started at 1.1735 might be coming to an end.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 1:15 pm GMT we take a first look at U.S. employment with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is a report that tracks changes in the number of employed individuals, excluding the farming sector and government. It has a lower impact than the Non-Farm Payrolls released tomorrow, but under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar. Today’s anticipated reading is 191K, very close to the previous 190K.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar made a comeback early during yesterday’s trading session and dragged the pair into 1.3500 support. The FOMC minutes had a relatively low impact but gave the greenback an extra push.




Technical Outlook

After failing to break 1.3600 resistance the pair retraced lower more than 100 pips, fuelled partly by a worse than anticipated British Construction PMI and partly by the FOMC Meeting Minutes. If the support at 1.3500 will be broken today, we will most likely see an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and possibly with 1.3450. Our bias is bearish for the short term as long as price is trading below 1.3550.

Fundamental Outlook

The Services PMI is the last in this week’s British PMI series but its impact is usually the lowest out of the three. The release is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and the expected reading is 58.1; higher numbers show optimism among purchasing managers from the Services sector and this usually strengthens the Pound but to a limited extent.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP FOR THE FIRST NON-FARM PAYROLLS REPORT OF THE YEAR

EUR/USD

Forex News: Despite a much better than expected ADP jobs report, the pair climbed strongly for most of yesterday’s trading session. 1.2000 is now confirmed as strong support and resistance is once again threatened.



Technical Outlook

The previous high was broken today after a textbook retracement that found support at 1.2000 so all hints point towards a trend continuation and a break of 1.2092 (last year’s high). If this barrier is broken, the next hurdle is located far away, in the 1.2280 zone so surely some weeks will pass until (or if) that mark is hit. A lot will depend today on the outcome of the U.S. jobs report, so the technical aspect will be secondary, especially around the time of release.  

Fundamental Outlook

The first major event of the day will be the release of the European Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 10:00 am GMT. This is the main gauge of inflation in the Eurozone and usually has a strong impact on the single currency, with higher numbers strengthening it. The anticipated change is 1.4%, a drop from the previous 1.5%.

Later in the day the US Non-Farm Payrolls will be released, showing changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming sector. This is widely considered the most important US jobs data and has a strong impact on the US Dollar. Higher levels of employment suggest that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future and this in turn strengthens the greenback. The anticipated change is 188K (previous 228K) and the time of release is 1:30 pm GMT.

GBP/USD

Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable bounced at support and moved higher throughout yesterday’s session but the Pound’s climb wasn’t as steep as the Euro’s.



Technical Outlook

Our short term outlook is neutral until we see a clear break or bounce at 1.3550. Once that happens, the next respective targets will become 1.3600 or 1.3500 but keep in mind that the pair will be also affected by the U.S. jobs data.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there are no major releases scheduled for the Pound, but the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls will have a direct and probably strong impact on the pair’s movement.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: CHOPPY PRICE ACTION AMID A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday showed a disappointing reading of 148K (anticipated 190K) and this initially generated a climb based on US Dollar weakness. However, the previous value was revised from 228K to 252K and this allowed the greenback to recuperate the losses.



Technical Outlook

After a long move up, the pair failed twice to move above the resistance at 1.2092, which shows that the uptrend is in need of a deeper retracement, with 1.2000 as first target. It is very possible to see a touch of this level today but we don’t expect the move to extend past it, especially because the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity and will provide extra support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Retail Sales come out, showing changes in the total value of sales performed through retail outlets across Europe. However, most European states have already released their retail sales data, so this release is less important. Higher numbers than the anticipated 1.4% usually strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

Friday’s price action was mainly influenced by the mixed NFP report, which showed a worse than expected number but the previous value was revised better, thus creating a mixed reaction.




Technical Outlook

Given Friday’s choppy price action, the next direction is difficult to anticipate but as long as the pair is trading above 1.3550, the bias is slightly bullish and 1.3600 is the first target. A move below this level will make the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the target for the day. However, due to the lack of economic releases today, it is probable that we will get a slow and possibly ranging trading session.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by any scheduled economic releases, so the technical side will decide the pair’s direction.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: THE DOLLAR STRIKES BACK. BEARISH PRICE ACTION ON THE HORIZON

EUR/USD

Forex News: Monday’s trading session belonged to the bears and the US Dollar made substantial advances south, breaking key support. Part of the US Dollar demand was due to expectations that the Fed may hike rates again in March.




Technical Outlook

The bearish break of the key support at 1.2000 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average brought in more sellers and the pair plummeted in close vicinity of the next support at 1.1945 – 1.1950. Early in today’s session we expect to see a touch of this support and if the move turns into a break of the level, the next target will become 1.1900 – 1.1875. Once the Relative Strength Index becomes oversold, the pair will likely retrace to the upside but as long as it stays below the 50 EMA, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The currencies in the pair will not be affected by scheduled major economic releases, thus the technical aspect will take center stage.

GBP/USD

Early during yesterday’s trading session the US Dollar dragged the pair below 1.3550 but soon after it returned to the level, creating choppy price action as expected.




Technical Outlook

The pair remains in a range, without a clear direction but 1.3550 is still important for short term movement. Currently price is touching the level after an initial break so we may be dealing with a re-test, meaning that if the bulls cannot take the pair above the level, it will turn into resistance and we will see moves south. If this is true the 50 EMA will be the first target, followed by the support at 1.3500, otherwise 1.3600 will become the next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and the US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected today by any notable economic data releases.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES ITS RUN. LOWER PRICES STILL EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar continued to strengthen yesterday and the pair was dominated by the bears who managed to break the support at 1.1945 as previously anticipated.




Technical Outlook

The current bias is clearly bearish but the pair has travelled a long distance to the south without a proper pullback and now the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic have both entered oversold. These are signs that point towards a move up during today’s trading session but as long as the pair remains below the 50 EMA, we favour the downside after the said pullback is complete.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we have another slow day from a fundamental standpoint, without any major economic releases for the Euro or US Dollar.

GBP/USD

After moving once again above 1.3550, yesterday the pair finally broke the level as well as the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, indicating that the balance of power is tilting towards the short side.





Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair is showing good downside momentum and the 50 EMA seems broken with authority. Unless price quickly reverses and moves above the EMA, we expect to see a break of the support at 1.3500, which if it happens will most likely bring in additional sellers, making 1.3450 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production will be today’s only notable release, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The report shows changes in the total value of goods generated by the manufacturing sector and usually has a medium but positive impact on the Pound if the actual reading surpasses estimates. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.3% compared to the previous 0.1%.

GDMFX

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES A BLOW AFTER CHINA NEWS. RESISTANCE STILL HOLDS, BUT FOR HOW LONG?

EUR/USD

Forex News: During yesterday’s trading session the US Dollar took a big hit after news emerged that China is planning to stop buying US government bonds. The pair rallied sharply into 1.2000 area but the level is still holding at the time of writing.




Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s move took the pair slightly above 1.2000 resistance but some of the losses were erased as the US Dollar recovered. Currently price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the US Dollar seems weak across the board, so we may very well see a break of 1.2000 and if that materializes, the pair is headed higher. On the other hand, a break of the 50 EMA would make 1.1945 the target once again.

Fundamental Outlook

The most notable release today will be the US Producer Price Index, which shows changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services. The indicator has inflationary implications because a higher producer price often leads to a higher consumer price. The release is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 0.2% (previous 0.4%); numbers above forecast usually strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

After what appeared to be a clean break of 1.3500, the pair rallied on the back of US Dollar weakness generated by the China news mentioned above. However, resistance couldn’t be surpassed and the pair remained in a range.




Technical Outlook

As long as the pair remains between 1.3500 support and 1.3600 resistance, we consider it in a ranging phase, without clear direction. The oscillators are lacking momentum and the 50 EMA is starting to turn flat, supporting the view of a ranging market. A potential break of 1.3550 will take price to the top of the range (1.3600) and on the other hand, a bounce would make 1.3500 the target for the day.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important economic releases for today, so the technical aspect and the US PPI will take center stage.