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楼主: 过路客

本地化语言,随便谈谈

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发表于 14-12-2008 02:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 过路客 于 14-12-2008 12:00 PM 发表
生意兄提出"cash is king”,单这几天,在不同报纸的财经版看到了几次。某家本地英文杂志还作主要题目之一(虽然是针对公司的现金为题目,cash is king),还有 the edge 周刊也开始自问该不该储蓄。

我好奇怪一点。很多人储蓄了一笔钱过后,总是这样问,该如何投资赚更多。如果回答,先不要投资,投资在现金。他们一定好疑惑,“这样如何能让钱赚钱?”

投资现金,也是一种投资



哈哈,过路客大大,你真的给了我一个全新的构思空间,
"投资现金,其实也是一种投资"。

其实近这半年,
小弟我已经陆陆续续的套了尽可能套的现金在手,
包括这几年收的邮票,新马两地英殖民时代的海峡纸币,
到最近连我投资近三年的房屋也套现了,原本想连我的车也要套,
不过没有车在 KL 也真的不方便,才打消了这个念头,
现在除了自住的房屋与一辆已经开了五年的笨蛋车,
如今小弟已经成了一个真真正正的无产阶级,哈哈。

其实我真的很认同过兄的宏观战略,相比于微观战术,
我还是认为战术必须要屈服于战略之下,
股市是不是会继续向南走,我已经不在意,
我在意的只是世界经济几时会進入通縮时代。
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发表于 14-12-2008 04:24 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 cct2048 于 14-12-2008 12:25 PM 发表
分析员拿的是一分薪水
大老板要他写好
他敢不听话吗?


这个星期的The Edge有写,在新马的外国股票行开始layoff分析员了。。。
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发表于 14-12-2008 04:29 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 781# 草根一名 的帖子

车不用套现啦,买来卖去更亏钱。。。
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 楼主| 发表于 15-12-2008 12:07 AM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 草根一名 于 14-12-2008 02:41 PM 发表
包括这几年收的邮票,新马两地英殖民时代的海峡纸币,


你好厉害。虽然自己只收一点点纸币、邮票,但还不舍得割舍。

原帖由 草根一名 于 14-12-2008 02:41 PM 发表
我还是认为战术必须要屈服于战略之下,
股市是不是会继续向南走,我已经不在意,
我在意的只是世界经济几时会進入通縮时代。


嗯,我也是这样想。

如果整体经济向下(宏观经济),就算仔细研究每家公司的业绩、销售手法(微观经济),要赚钱的机会比较微薄。

其实,没人敢肯定究竟会不会进入通缩期,但迹象越来越明显。至少,短期内,再也没人提起“通膨”这两个字。

我国未必会进入通缩期。但通膨减缓、下跌,大概是短期内无法改变的局势。单是这点,就足以证明把钱投资在“现金”,是比较明智的做法。

几天前,美林预测油价会下滑到 25美元

高盛则预测第一季度,油价将下滑到30美元
(高盛预测在 2009年平均价是 45美元。)

这是其中一个数据。还有好多其他数据、如房产、cpi、原料、种植等,价格预测下滑,显示全球步入通缩期的可能性,越来越高。

还有,最近市场资金纷纷投转美国短期债卷市场,导致零利率、甚至负利率的。证明好多基金操手开始把投资项目放在“现金”上。利息并不重要,只要保住现金就好了。比方,投资原油的,把钱拿出,只要油价持续下滑,表示这些“现金”的价值越来越高(同样的资金,能买更多桶油)。

种种迹象显示,越来越多投资者相信,通缩有可能发生。不表示一定发生,但,发生的机率越来越高。
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 楼主| 发表于 15-12-2008 12:11 AM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 Mr.Business 于 14-12-2008 04:29 PM 发表
车不用套现啦,买来卖去更亏钱。。。


养车也不容易。如果能不必依赖车子,可以节省更多。

奈何本地公共交通系统太糟糕。在城市,没车子,等于没有脚。
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发表于 15-12-2008 01:12 PM | 显示全部楼层
过路客兄,小弟有小小疑问关于我国的GDP。。。
我国的的GDP靠什么来成长呢?
我从报章上知道1/4靠出口,其他的呢?
谢谢。。。
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发表于 15-12-2008 01:24 PM | 显示全部楼层
请问亿桶石油的成本价是多少?如果是低于三十就罢了。。但如果高于三十,何来是有会跌过30只说?
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发表于 15-12-2008 01:40 PM | 显示全部楼层
Madoff Said to Have Used Unregistered Side-Business for Clients

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=iNUnHLc4XvUM


Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Federal investigators working through the weekend to unravel Bernard Madoff’s alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme found evidence he ran an unregistered money-management business alongside his firm’s brokerage and investment-advisory units, two people with knowledge of the inquiry said.

Clients of the undisclosed business appear to have included hedge funds, according to the people, who declined to be identified or to name the funds because the probe isn’t public. Investigators from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission are looking for signs that others participated in the alleged fraud and are examining why Madoff’s wife’s name appeared on documents linked to transactions under scrutiny, the people said. His wife, Ruth Madoff, has not been accused of any wrongdoing.

Ira “Ike” Sorkin, a lawyer at Dickstein Shapiro LLP in New York representing Madoff, didn’t reply to a phone call and e-mail seeking comment. Calls to residences listed in the Madoffs’ names in Manhattan, Montauk, New York, and Palm Beach, Florida, weren’t answered. John Heine, an SEC spokesman, declined to comment.

Sorkin said on Dec. 13 that the situation was “a tragedy.”

More than a dozen SEC inspectors have been working around the clock examining records at Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC in New York after his sons told authorities Dec. 10 he’d confessed to orchestrating a Ponzi scheme with more than $50 billion in losses, the biggest in history. People with knowledge of the probe who initially said they suspected the loss estimate was too high now say it may be roughly accurate.

The $50 billion figure may reflect the amounts of money clients were told they had in their accounts at the firm, not the amounts they originally invested, two of the people said. Customers who believed they had amassed investment gains over time may have been misled, the people said.

Wilpon, BNP Paribas

Clients facing losses range from New York Mets owner Fred Wilpon’s Sterling Equities Inc. to hedge funds such as Fairfield Sentry Ltd. Banks including BNP Paribas SA in Paris, Europe’s third largest, have said they may lose money because of trading or lending tied to Madoff’s firm.

Investigators are still trying to figure out where customers’ money went. Madoff, 70, told his sons last week he had as much as $300 million left, according to an SEC lawsuit filed in federal court in Manhattan. The agency is looking for additional money that may be recovered for victims, two people said. In a regulatory filing in January, Madoff’s firm listed $17 billion in assets under management.

Details of the side-business that the SEC is scrutinizing -- including how much client money it held, who besides Madoff may have been involved in it, and how it was kept separate from the firm’s registered investment-advisory unit -- couldn’t be determined.

The 17th Floor

Madoff kept his firm’s financial statements under lock and key and was “cryptic” about its investment-advisory activities when discussing them with other employees, the SEC said in its complaint.

The entire advisory business was a mystery to most staff members, said two firm employees who declined to be identified, citing concern about being drawn into the probe. Madoff’s offices on Third Ave. in midtown Manhattan extended over several floors, with market-making and proprietary trading units on the 19th floor, and back-office functions on the 18th floor, the employees said. Madoff’s advisory business was housed on the 17th floor.

While traffic flowed between the 18th and 19th floors, the 17th floor wasn’t linked to the other floors and there was virtually no interaction between the groups, according to the employees.

In the Dark

Madoff’s sons, who ran the market-making and proprietary units, told employees that their father kept them in the dark about the advisory unit, the employees said. While Madoff seldom appeared on the 18th and 19th floors during the workday, he was known to inspect during the evening for sloppy desks or window shades that weren’t fully drawn, one of the employees said.

The only person the employee recalled seeing Madoff consult with on the 17th floor was an executive known by his first name, Frank.

Reached by phone at home, Madoff official Frank DiPascali referred calls to his lawyer, Marc Mukasey, a former federal prosecutor now at Bracewell & Giuliani in New York. Mukasey declined to comment.

In court documents, U.S. criminal prosecutors and the SEC said Madoff confessed that his advisory business, which catered to rich people and institutional investors as well as hedge funds, was “all just one big lie.” The business had been insolvent for years, according to the SEC’s account of his statement.

SIPC Steps In

He made the admissions to his sons, Mark and Andrew, who turned him in to U.S. authorities, according to Martin Flumenbaum, a lawyer at Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP in New York who represents the brothers.

Madoff was arrested Dec. 11 and charged at federal court in Manhattan with a single count of securities fraud. He was released that day on a $10 million bond guaranteed by his wife and secured by his Manhattan apartment. A day later, a federal court froze the firm’s assets and appointed Lee Richards, an attorney at Richards Kibbe & Orbe LLP in New York, as a receiver.

The fate of Madoff’s brokerage customers also remains undetermined. The Securities Investor Protection Corp., which insures brokerages, plans to take over Madoff’s operation as early as today, three people said. The Washington-based SIPC oversees transfers of client accounts, including securities and cash, when a firm fails.

“We are aware of the situation,” said SIPC President Stephen Harbeck. “Our long-standing policy is not to comment until we do something.”

Investigators have not indicated what losses, if any, brokerage customers may have suffered. To prevent losses, securities firms are supposed to keep SIPC-insured accounts isolated from the company’s own accounts. Though the SIPC provides insurance of up to $500,000 per client for lost assets, it doesn’t protect against investment losses.


这人不是应该捉去磨铁条了吗?库夫的金字塔都没他厉害

[ 本帖最后由 linkinwei 于 15-12-2008 01:44 PM 编辑 ]
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发表于 15-12-2008 02:48 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 785# 过路客 的帖子

我现在也是0负债, 之前想换车 买屋计划都一一搁置。

前两天看到naza 206促销 manual 的才rm54,000 (折扣了, 之前不是这个价钱的)
又加上 可以免利息供12年 =144期  (不是顶高 车价再给优惠的价促销,因为之前不是卖54千的)
一期才rm375 免头期, 看来naza是要钱不要货
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发表于 15-12-2008 03:30 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 江湖 于 15-12-2008 02:48 PM 发表
我现在也是0负债, 之前想换车 买屋计划都一一搁置。

前两天看到naza 206促销 manual 的才rm54,000 (折扣了, 之前不是这个价钱的)
又加上 可以免利息供12年 =144期  (不是顶高 车价再给优惠的价促销,因为之 ...




naza 206 其实是中国生产法国牌子 Peugeot 206

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发表于 15-12-2008 04:14 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 789# 江湖 的帖子

我也是0负债。
正在买车和准备买房子。

我申请了Naza 206 ,不知道Loan 批准了吗?
我Order 的那辆是Quartz Blue。Auto 的。

你的呢?
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发表于 15-12-2008 05:13 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 tan81 于 15-12-2008 04:14 PM 发表
 我也是0负债。正在买车和准备买房子。 我申请了Naza 206 ,不知道Loan 批准了吗?我Order 的那辆是Quartz Blue。Auto 的。你的呢?


大哥,你好 
原来你也相中了。。
讲真啦,很便宜下,5-60千 还多少可以亏呢?? 但我还在考虑
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发表于 15-12-2008 07:52 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 linkinwei 于 15-12-2008 01:24 PM 发表
请问亿桶石油的成本价是多少?如果是低于三十就罢了。。但如果高于三十,何来是有会跌过30只说?


一桶石油的成本价大约是50美元,之前起到140美元又不见人说不可能,现在就算跌到成本价之下也没什么不可能的。
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发表于 15-12-2008 07:54 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 792# 江湖 的帖子

每个都是有钱人哦。。。我则是买笨蛋傻瓜,RM35K。。。要买车可以考虑在31/03之前买,政府还送你RM625的rebate。
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发表于 15-12-2008 08:00 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 794# Mr.Business 的帖子

你才是有钱人,因为你负担得起银行利息。
如果少利息,那么你一定是 给了很多Cash。
不管怎样看,你都是比我们有钱的人。
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发表于 15-12-2008 08:22 PM | 显示全部楼层
全部都是有钱人。。。我连车都没有。。。。
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发表于 15-12-2008 09:04 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 796# goodluck88 的帖子

我也是没有,原本有的,可是被偷了。
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发表于 15-12-2008 09:06 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 Mr.Business 于 15-12-2008 07:54 PM 发表
要买车可以考虑在31/03之前买,政府还送你RM625的rebate。


果然厉害..做么我没有想到??
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发表于 15-12-2008 09:18 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 798# 江湖 的帖子

我之前是等现在的旧车路税到期。现在拿了旧车的rebate,准备trade in新车,再拿新车的rebate,所以我将拿两次rebate,总数RM1250,谢谢政府的无聊措施(怪不得我们的budget总是deficit)。
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发表于 15-12-2008 10:02 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 793# Mr.Business 的帖子

起价对谁有好处?油公司or opec。。那跌了价肯定对油公司or opec不好。。那既然成本是在50美元,那我想请问,我明知做亏本生意我还去做那不是傻子是什么?油公司or opec不可能让油跌过成本价的!!有也只是short term。。如果低过成本价,那油公司or opec大可储存起来,到时,supply demand作祟,一定有油价回升的时候。。前提是,替代能源还未出现
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