【HALIM 交流专区】 投机选择(2) - Halim Mazmin BHD

糊涂

盈利激增的原因：
1. Disposal of a vessel on 30th June 2004 by a subsidiary company which resulted in a gain of RM2.78 million.
2. Disposal of a vessel on 29th November 2004 by a subsidiary company which result in a gain of RM18.26 million;
3. Disposal of a vessel on 1st December 2004 by a subsidiary company which result in a gain of RM18.10 million.

未来的计划：
After the completion of the MSC Disposals and the proposed disposal of Meridian Polaris, a capesize bulk carrier, the HMB Group would still have a fleet of 5 vessels.  The Board of HMB intends to continue with its core business of shipping.  The proceeds from the disposals will enable HMB to build up its cash reserves to acquire additional vessels once the price of vessels comes down from the current historical high levels. The cash reserves will place HMB in a good position to take advantage of any opportunities that may arise during the shipping market downturn and acquire vessels at attractive prices.

As part of the decision making process to invest in additional vessels, the Board of HMB will take into consideration factors such as type and age of the vessel, the internal rate of return, the charterer of the vessel and the tenure of the charter party agreement.  HMB will continue its prudent approach by taking a long-term view of its vessel investment.

Basis and Justification for the MSC Disposals Price
The disposals price of USD30.0 million each, amount to an aggregate of USD60.0 million (representing approximately RM228.0 million) was arrived at on a willing buyer-willing seller basis after taking into consideration the market value of MSC Tasmania and MSC America of USD30.0 million each, ascribed by an independent valuer, Howe Robinson Marine Evaluations (a division of Howe Robinson & Co. Ltd), in their certificates of valuation dated 28 October 2004.  The aggregate gain on the disposals were RM36.36 million.
The Board of HMB has considered the global shipping market which they note is presently experiencing an unprecedented boom wherein vessel prices and charter rates of all major sectors i.e. tankers, containers and dry cargo segments have increased significantly over the past 18 to 24 months. The increase is attributed by management to a combination of factors particularly strong demand from the China market for raw materials and a shortage of vessels.
Against this backdrop, the management of HMB views the MSC Disposals as a timely opportunity for the HMB Group to realise premium value for the 2 container vessels given that the vessels are now 11 years old and would be incurring higher maintenance cost as the vessels age.

[ Last edited by 糊涂 on 24-2-2005 at 07:38 PM ]

vcycle

恭喜壇主，開始進賬了。
    今天股價開始起跑向你的目標行進了。

糊涂

两个月的限期转眼就到，若下星期没涨到95分的话，那这次的投机也可算是失败了。

这两三个月来的投机运气实在并不怎么好，
是时机出现了差错吗？
还是市场先生开始变了呢？

糊涂

刚才又重看它的数据，发现Halim的股东基金在四年里竟然“开了番”，
我糊涂开始有点佩服它管理层的能力，尤其是它的土著“掌舵人”，
若它的股东基金还能够以这样的速度开番，我糊涂死守着它又有何妨。(这算是自我安慰吧？)
呵呵，这可是说说而已哦！找到新的投机目标后我可能就会抛弃它了。

[ Last edited by 糊涂 on 25-2-2005 at 04:21 PM ]

糊涂兄
通常买下的公司股票没有不妥的话，我会放到它赚钱为止，抱死不放，就好像我放了一段时期都还未赚钱的一些股票
BLD PLAT
MBMR
KPS
TOYOCHEW 看来又要打回头
BJCAP
至於HALIM 在77，5 也买了一些，没力垃，希望这只马儿快快跑。。。

vcycle

糊涂 于 25-2-2005 04:02 PM  说 :
两个月的限期转眼就到，若下星期没涨到95分的话，那这次的投机也可算是失败了。

这两三个月来的投机运气实在并不怎么好，
是时机出现了差错吗？
还是市场先生开始变了呢？

其實也不算失敗啦，很多人都不看好大市，但 hilim 可以守住他的股價到現在其實已經很好了，照看過不到 0.90 我想，但也不要緊，他始終也還不是拉級股，我決定守拿了股息先才決定，只要他守住我的底線，0.735。

[ Last edited by vcycle on 25-2-2005 at 10:48 PM ]

invest2229

糊涂 于 25-2-2005 04:02 PM  说 :
两个月的限期转眼就到，若下星期没涨到95分的话，那这次的投机也可算是失败了。

这两三个月来的投机运气实在并不怎么好，
是时机出现了差错吗？
还是市场先生开始变了呢？

今天已上升至０。８０５， 起３分。应该要来的。

糊涂

既然Vcycle兄想守着Halim，我就来玩个小小的数学游戏，看看它是否值得我们去守候 ？

The Edge报告指出container vessels为Halim带来约65%的营业额，
Halim在2004年拥有4艘container vessel，卖出了这两艘最大的container vessel后，就仅余两艘container vessel了。

假设：
1. 营业额与盈利成为正比
2. 卖出两艘container vessels导致Halim流失了约40%的营业额

那我们也就可以粗略的计算Halim明年的业绩了：
2004的营业额为    = 131,201,000，
税前盈利为(PBT)   =   83,850,000
利息支出为        =   12,033,000

减去售船获得的盈利  = 83,850,000-2,780,000-18,260,000-18,100,000
                    = 44,710,000(业务带来的盈利)

那明年的盈利预测为 = 今年的业务盈利的60% = 44,710,000  X 60%
                                         = 26,826,000

2003年总债务为      = 276,863,000(长期) + 44,046,000(短期)
                    = 320,909,000
平均支付的利息率    = 12,033,000/320,909,000
                    = 3.75%

2004年总债务为      = 188,859,000 + 59,550,000
                    = 248,409,000
必须支付的利息为    = 9,315,338

*那明年的净业务盈利则为 = 26,826,000 - 9,315,338
                        = 17,510,662

但，可别忘了它卖船后所获得的资金也将为它带来利息收入：
从2004年最后一季的季报中，
Deposits with licensed banks = 304,973,000
假设净利息收入为2.16%        = 304,973,000 X 2.16%
                             = 6,587,416
**那明年的业务盈利则为 => 17,510,662 + 6,587,416 = 24,098,078
  每股盈利 = 24,098,078/321,352,000 = 7.5分

还有，它将在4月29日脱售另一艘船：capesize bulk carrier, Meridian Polaris, to Springwood Shipping Company Ltd
这项交易预料会为它带来33,200,000的税前盈利
***那明年的总盈利 = 24,098,078 + 33,200,000 = 57,298,078
   每股盈利 = 57,298,078/321,352,000 = 17.8分

注： 这些预测的数据有着许多的假设与变数，只能参考而作不得准滴！

vcycle

糊涂兄，謝謝你上面的解說。
     看了你上面所說的，想了很久，只是覺的該還是可以守，雖然公司賣出了差不多一半船，但也收住很多現金，他會跟住做什麼，如何做，我是看不到的啦，如真的好像你所預算的，明年有17.8的eps他也不該再往下跌了吧，你的預算準不準也不是很重要了，而是此股賺多的機會已經比虧的比率高很多了，雖然我不知他會賺幾多，但我知他不會虧我很多，我覺得守得過了，但本身也要看住他來調整本身的底線，我到現在還是抓不到長期投資者的門路，暫時我只好抓股價的波動了。

糊涂兄！可以解释一下这个东西吗？
Announcement
Subject : HALIM MAZMIN BERHAD ("HMB" OR THE "COMPANY")

- PROPOSED RENEWAL OF SHARE BUYBACK AUTHORITY FOR HMB TO PURCHASE ITS OWN SHARES OF UP TO 10% OF ITS ISSUED AND PAID-UP SHARE CAPITAL ("PROPOSED RENEWAL OF AUTHORITY")

- PROPOSED WAIVER FOR TAN SRI DATO' HALIM BIN MOHAMMAD AND PERSONS ACTING IN CONCERT FROM THE OBLIGATION TO UNDERTAKE A MANDATORY GENERAL OFFER ("MGO") FOR THE REMAINING SHARES IN HMB NOT ALREADY OWNED BY THEM SUBSEQUENT TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PURCHASE BY HMB OF ITS OWN SHARES, AS PERMITTED UNDER PRACTICE NOTE 2.9.10 OF THE MALAYSIAN CODE ON TAKE-OVERS AND MERGERS 1998 ("PROPOSED MGO EXEMPTION")

(Collectively, the "Proposals")

Contents :

Aseambankers Malaysia Berhad, on behalf of HMB, is pleased to announce that HMB intends to seek shareholders' approval for:
(i) the Proposed Renewal of Authority; and
(ii) the Proposed MGO Exemption, on behalf of Tan Sri Dato' Halim Bin Mohammad and persons acting in concert.

The Proposed Renewal of Authority will enable HMB to purchase its own shares of up to 10% of its issued and paid-up share capital ("Share Buyback").

The Proposed Renewal of Authority is conditional upon the Proposed MGO Exemption. A circular containing details of the Proposals will be issued to the shareholders of HMB in due course. The Proposed MGO Exemption is described in Section 1 below.


1. Proposed MGO Exemption

The purchase of shares by HMB, pursuant to the Proposed Renewal of Authority may result in its major shareholder, Tan Sri Dato' Halim Bin Mohammad ("TSHM") and persons acting in concert triggering an obligation to extend a MGO for the remaining shares in HMB not already held by them, as required by the Malaysian Code on Take-Overs and Mergers 1998 ("the Code").

1.1 Persons acting in concert with TSHM

Puan Sri Datin Mazmin binti Noordin ("PSMN") (the spouse of TSHM), Haji Mazlan bin Nordin ("HMN") (the brother of PSMN) and Puan Zaimah bt Ahmad ("PZA") (the spouse of HMN) are deemed persons acting in concert with TSHM ("Concert Parties").

1.2 Exemption sought under Practice Note 2.9.10 of the Code

The Share Buyback to be undertaken by the Company will have the effect of increasing the shareholdings of all shareholders of HMB, including TSHM and the Concert Parties. Assuming HMB undertakes the Share Buyback up to the maximum limit of 10% of its issued and paid-up share capital, the proforma effect based on the shareholding of TSHM and the Concert Parties in HMB as at 15 February 2005 is set out below: -


Notes:
(1) Deemed interested by virtue of PSMN being the spouse of TSHM
(2) Deemed interested by virtue of PZA being the spouse of HMN
In the event that the Share Buyback were to result in TSHM's direct equity interest exceeding 33%, TSHM and Concert Parties would be obliged under the Code to undertake a MGO for the remaining ordinary shares in HMB not already held by them.

However, as the increase in their shareholding is inadvertent and as a result of action that is outside their direct participation, an exemption from this MGO obligation under Practice Note 2.9.10 of the Code ("PN2.9.10"), which is in respect of exemption for holders of voting shares, directors and persons acting in concert when a company purchases its own voting shares, may be sought from the Securities Commission ("SC") subject to certain conditions set out therein. An application to the SC for the Proposed MGO Exemption would be made in due course.
2. Major Shareholders' and Directors' Interests in the Proposals

TSHM is a major shareholder and director of HMB. As the principal subject of the Proposed MGO Exemption, TSHM is deemed interested in the Proposals.

PSMN is a major shareholder and director of HMB. She is also the spouse of TSHM and is deemed a person acting in concert with TSHM. As such, PSMN is deemed interested in the Proposals.

HMN has an indirect interest in HMB and is a director of HMB. He is the brother of PSMN and is deemed a person acting in concert with TSHM. As such, HMN is deemed interested in the Proposals.

General (R) Dato' Sri Abdullah bin Ahmad @ Dollah bin Amad ("GAD") is a director of HMB. He has no direct or indirect interest in HMB. GAD has declared that he is deemed interested in the Proposals by virtue of his employment in a company controlled by TSHM and PSMN.

Accordingly, TSHM, PSMN, HMN and GAD have abstained and will abstain from any deliberations and voting in respect of the Proposals at the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company. In addition, TSHM, PSMN and HMN will abstain from voting with respect to their direct and/or indirect shareholdings in HMB on the Proposals. TSHM, PSMN, HMN and GAD have also undertaken that they will ensure that persons connected to them will abstain from voting with respect to their direct and/or indirect shareholdings in HMB at the shareholders' meeting to be convened to consider the Proposals.

Save for the above, none of the directors and major shareholders of HMB or persons connected with such directors and major shareholders have any interest, direct or indirect, in the Proposed Renewal of Authority and Proposed MGO Exemption.


3. Conditions of the Proposals

The Proposals are conditional upon the approval of: -

(a) the shareholders of the Company; and
(b) the SC for the Proposed MGO Exemption.
The Proposed Renewal of Authority is conditional upon the Proposed MGO Exemption.


4. Appointment of Independent Adviser

The Board of Directors of HMB has approved the appointment of AmMerchant Bank Berhad ("AmMerchant") as the Independent Adviser ("IA") to the non-interested shareholders and directors of HMB in relation to the Proposed MGO Exemption.

The appointment of AmMerchant as the IA is subject to the approval of the SC.


This announcement is dated 1 March 2005.

[ Last edited by 龙剑飞 on 1-3-2005 at 08:08 PM ]

糊涂

简单的说法：
两个建议：
1. 股票回购(上限为10%)
2. 豁免MGO或强制性全面献购股票

从去年的年度报告中，Halim & Mazmin 夫妇持有Halim约59%的股权，回购股票就会导致他俩的股权增加并触动MGO或“强制性全面献购股票”，所以建议股票回购前就必须获得SC准许豁免强制性全面献购股票。

对小股东来说，这是件好事来滴！

糊涂 于 5-3-2005 12:04 PM  说 :
简单的说法：
两个建议：
1. 股票回购(上限为10%)
2. 豁免MGO或强制性全面献购股票

从去年的年度报告中，Halim & Mazmin 夫妇持有Halim约59%的股权，回购股票就会导致他俩的股权增加并触动 ...

为什么回购股票会造成股权增加？
票数还是一样，可是巴仙率却增加？
请问何时回购股票？

糊涂

NeverGiveUp 于 5-3-2005 09:54 PM  说 :

为什么回购股票会造成股权增加？
票数还是一样，可是巴仙率却增加？
请问何时回购股票？

我想用数学来解答，会比较容易让大家明白：
假设：
100%=100张票
A拥有公司50张票=50%股权，
其他股东则拥有另外的50张票，

当公司从散户手中回购10%或10张票的时候，
100%的股权=90张票(不论公司取消或发送库存股给股东，股权的分配还是改变了)

=〉这时A手上的50张票已不再是相等于50%股权了。

A的实际股权 = 50/90 X 100% = 55.55%

====> 在SC&股东大会批准后才能够回购股票，什么时候开始则由管理层决定。

invest2229

今天HALIM出现少见的上涨，上了0.05，闭市价RM0.8，
有什么消息？

GuShen

Rm0.80  - 1 lot nia.....

糊涂

昨天，我以0.77-0.775之间的价格脱售了Halim，净亏3.5%，获得的资金悉数买入Eksons(1.12-1.13之间)。这一次的买卖显得有点急躁，我甚至等不及它宣布7分免税股息就把它脱售了；只因我特别看好eksons这季度的业绩，所以就趁它的业绩未出炉前进行换马行动。

总结：Halim的投机失败了。

[ Last edited by 糊涂 on 5-5-2005 at 11:22 AM ]

糊涂兄，怎么换马换得这么急？
我也对EKSONS下大拄，不知他的业绩要到几时才能反映在股价上。

糊涂

那自然是因为我投资的功力不足，抵受不了外界的诱惑。
有时我会想Halim最高能够去到什么价位？ Eksons最高又能够去到什么价位？
两者之间，哪间公司能够为我在短时间内带来较好的“投资/机”回酬呢？
不换马，我心中可会一直盘算着它；换马后，心也就该安定些了。

当贪婪遇上理性的时候，竟然会是贪婪占上风，想想起来的确有点可怕。。。

P/S:基于我之前推荐大家买入Halim，我下船了自然得向大家交待一声较好。

vcycle

糊塗兄。
      halim 我在 28/3 就已經脫手了，也是虧了一點 -4.5％
      祝你們的 eksons 旗開得勝，馬到成功。

看EKSONS的管理层很低调，虽然公司业绩大好，但也没向外大事宣告。
我就很相信一样东西，“静狗咬死人”。
不知会不会来个SURPRISE。