【PTARAS 9598 交流专区】鹏发

XiaoXiaoNiu

在the edge 看到的旧新闻(June 22, 2004 )，看一看，有讲到一些建筑的东西
Investing Ideas: HSL sitting pretty in Sarawak
By Nicole Yeong

Sarawak-based construction company Hock Seng Lee Bhd (HSL) is beginning to attract the attention of analysts, thanks to its strong earnings and improving prospects.
The factor that makes HSL stand out among other construction companies is its expertise in land reclamation projects, analysts who track the stock say. In fact, HSL is believed to have captured over 50% of the land reclamation projects awarded by the Sarawak and federal governments.
Most infrastructure and development projects in Sarawak are preceded by land reclamation because its growth areas are located in river basins and along coastlines that are mainly swampy.
According to an analyst at a local research house, HSL, with its own barges and pumps, stands out as being the only local firm capable of handling these development projects. There are foreign firms able to do the same, but HSL offers much lower costs, the analyst adds.
HSL is also poised to benefit from the government's spending on infrastructure. While the federal government has reduced development spending under the 2004 budget, Sabah and Sarawak are exceptions. Under the 2004 budget, Sabah has been allocated RM5.9 billion and Sarawak RM5.5 billion for development expenditure.
Bloomberg's computations put HSL's forward price-earning ratio (PER) at 13.2 times. Like-sized peers, MTD Capital and TSR Capital, for example, have forward PERs of 11.1 times and 6.68 times, respectively. The analyst has a construction sector prospective PER at 9.8 times for 2005. While HSL's PER is higher, some analysts still maintain a "buy" call on the stock, citing the company's advantageous position compared with its peers and other players in the sector.
"Sarawak's development works are often not open to non-local companies. It puts HSL in an isolated and comfortable position compared with its peninsular counterparts, which face intense competition for local projects. This means HSL should be given a premium above the construction sector's price earnings," says the analyst. He has a fair value for the stock at RM3.80.
The share price of HSL has been on an uptrend all year and reached a 52-week high of RM3.64 on April 12, following a bonus issue of about 43.7 million shares in late March. Three bonus shares of RM1 each were given for every five existing shares held. The share price has settled at around RM3 since mid-May.
Another analyst at a local securities firm gave HSL a fair value of RM3.92 based on his estimate of 14 to 15 times PER2005 for the company. "We believe a premium rating over the construction sector's 12 times is justified based on HSL's superior earnings per share [EPS] growth rate of 27% in FY2005, compared with the sector's 6%," he says in a research report.
The compounded annual growth rate for HSL's earnings is estimated at about 24.1% up to 2006. "This is strong growth. No other construction player is able to perform so strongly," the analyst says, adding that other construction firms have an average growth rate in the teens. Other construction firms also lack the earnings visibility that HSL has.
"We can see that its earnings are tied down for the next two years, into 2006," he notes.
Last week, HSL announced a contract awarded by the Public Works Department to build Part Two, Phase Two, of the Integrated Deep Sea Fishing Port at Tanjung Manis.
Prior to this award, the consortium also completed Phase One, which involved mass land reclamation in preparation for the development of this port. The same analyst believes HSL could end up with more contracts after the completion of the port to build facilities such as warehouses and other buildings.
The port project is worth RM102 million and is expected to last 15 months. While the announcement was made on June 10, work by the consortium had already started since December last year. HSL will lead a consortium comprising two other companies —Rheinhold and Mahla Sdn Bhd and Juara Beetuah Sdn Bhd. It holds an 85% stake in the consortium.
The project boosted HSL's outstanding order book to about RM600 million, which, with its churn rate, would keep the company busy for the next two years. In comparison, MTD Capital has an order book of between RM550 million and RM600 million but an analyst says that would only last the company for another year, while TSR Capital's order book of less than RM150 million would be depleted soon.
HSL's other projects include a RM66 million road project in Samarahan, a contract it got from the Public Works Department of Sarawak earlier this year. HSL would be paid in cash and land. The proposed 21.5 km road lies on low terrain and would again involve considerable sand filling and drainage works — the company's forte. Other projects in hand include an underpass-overpass traffic interchange at Third Mile, the upgrading of Jalan Batu Kawa (a 48-km stretch of the new Miri-Bintulu coastal road), ongoing infrastructure and reclamation works for Sama Jaya Free Industrial Zone, Demak Laut Industrial Park, and the Samariang new township.
The property division contributed 11% of the group's revenue for FY2003. HSL expects this division's contribution to be more significant in time as it accumulates its landbank.
HSL reported a net profit of RM20.7 million or 17.6 sen a share for FY2003, on a turnover of RM287.5 million. Turnover rose 51.6% and net profit 69.7% compared with FY2002. EPS rose 72.5% from 10.2 sen in FY2002. The group attributed better results to larger and technically more demanding projects, as well as more projects as a first-line contractor.
For the first quarter of this year ended March 31, HSL reported a net profit of RM5.88 million, which is 37.8% higher than the RM4.26 million for the same quarter last year.
Analysts say that HSL has been getting more design-and-build projects where the developer is able to mark-up margins (as opposed to open tender projects where specifications are all drawn out). HSL has also traditionally taken on smaller projects, which give construction firms bigger margins compared with large projects.
With borrowings at only RM111,000 as at March 31, 2004, HSL is considered virtually debt free for a construction firm. At the same time, cash-in-hand was about RM57.6 million.
Analysts say that HSL's plans to move into property development would affect its cash flow, as the company tries to get compensation in the form of land as well. But they agree that the impact will not be to the extent that it will result in a negative cash flow.
HSL has declared a dividend of 15 sen per ordinary share for FY2003, which is 150% more than the six sen dividend for FY2002.

khimkhim

为了不拥有主观立场， 以下是就做个参考：

profit margin 2004:
1Q=13%
2Q=16%
3Q=7%
4Q=18%
2004年=13%

第三季度， 就是有问题。 那么它的季度报告怎么说呢？
For the 3rd financial quarter under review, the Group recorded a revenue and profit before taxation of  RM22.07 million and RM1.81 million, representing a decrease of 2% and 47% respectively compared to the preceding quarter. The decline in profit before taxation was mainly due to the shortage and price escalation of steel bars in the construction industry. Other raw materials and costs such as concrete and fuel, spare parts and transport all saw price increases.                                                                                                  

所以， 糊涂兄的担心， 确实是有道理的。

我的看法：
钢铁的价钱， 2003年就开始起了。 到了2004年，钢铁还是处於高价。 那么2005年会怎样呢？
1) 首先， 钢铁起价不是新鲜的事了， 那么， 很可能管理层学会了节流。 或者， 可能和约的价钱因此而被推高。 那么profit margin就会变好了。
2) 既然， 钢铁起价不是新鲜的事了， 那么， 钢铁供应商就会因此而提高供应， 或资源回收。 那么价钱就会回软了。
3) 高债务的公司， 可能因钢铁起价， 停止了工程。 甚至于到闭。 那么， 需求也没那么高了。 例如： 1997，因为马币贬值导致 Ekran 停止了 Bakun project.
4) 油价上涨， 主要是因为全球经济过热的关系。 (我不认为是投机客所为)。 美国方面， 会逐渐提高利息， 来缓和经济。 中国方面， 已经采取了宏观调控。 相信在不久之后会看到效果了！

谢谢！

糊涂

第一季的业绩报告出炉了，
EPS = 3.82

营业额比去年同期减少了1%，但税后盈利却增长了11%。
值得一提的是最近收购CORPLAST PACKAGING为集团带来0.84mil的营业额与0.22mil的税前盈利。
这家子公司的gross profit margin=0.22/0.84X100%=26%(在原油高涨的当儿有此表现，赞！)，同时CORPLAST PACKAGING并没给集团带来多大的债务负担(这让我感到安心，因为之前我还担忧其BS会因收购CORPLAST而变得不够干净。收购CORPLAST只是在BS多了个0.57的GoodWill与不见了3.2mil的现金，算起来还是蛮划算的。)

其生产部与建筑部的盈利都有不错的增长，可惜给投资部的盈利offset了。无论如何，其投资部同期又买入了约6mil的股票，我预期它能够在这次的牛市中受惠。

[ Last edited by 糊涂 on 19-11-2004 at 05:53 PM ]

khimkhim

糊涂 于 19-11-2004 17:51  说 :
第一季的业绩报告出炉了，
EPS = 3.82

营业额比去年同期减少了1%，但税后盈利却增长了11%。
值得一提的是最近收购CORPLAST PACKAGING为集团带来0.84mil的营业额与0.22mil的税前盈利。
这家子公 ...

我还以为， goodwill 只会增加0.1million, 因为3.8million-3.7million, 所以就？？？ 同样的以为，liabilities会增加4million, 结果只增加了3.7million. 还有， 以为cash会减少3.8million， 结果， 只减少3.2million, 更加？？？ 结论是： consolidated financial report, 还真的不简单哪！

fcthow兄，tekyong兄， 您在那里？
对了， goodwill 是怎样amortised的？？ 下一季， 要如何预测？？

糊涂兄，
2003年， 大概7月， 这间公司announce了， 价值RM22million的project, 结果， 3rd Quarter(2004年， 2月完工。), 就真的Revenue=22million, 当时， GPM是7%。是2004最差的一季。 相信， 历史不会从演。 GPM， 变好了， 现在有16%。 2005财政年， 暂时有两个project. 那弟一个工程， 会在12月完工，价值25million, 再加上corplast的表现， 确实是不差， 相信pintaras的多元化， 会有好的前景。 看来之前， 我对於2004第三季太忧虑了.  再来， 生产部营业额增长到8million, 怎样都比去年好， 相信今年会有很好的表现。 (如果能够知道prima 的财务报告， 会知道得更清楚。)。 无论如何，让我们拭目以待吧。

若有错， 请更改！ 谢谢！

consolidated 已经变得不重要了 ， 原因是100% 收购。

它只是给了 3156000 ,还有剩下的， 应该记录在 liability 了， 我想，就这样简单.

你看看，
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN EQUITY。。。。

上个quarter 的 shareholers' equity + 这个 quarter 的 net profit
= 现在的 shareholers' equity

我们无法知道细节。
因为我们不是 auditor, 我们只能看概况。


这个quarter 刚刚被收购， 所以不用 amortised.
amortised的方法和 depreciation "一模一样"。是会造成 income loss 的。

(如果能够知道prima 的财务报告， 会知道得更清楚。)。

除非 prima 是上市公司， 不然我们无法找到 财务报告。

paiseh, 问了等於没问。

fcthow

我还以为， goodwill 只会增加0.1million, 因为3.8million-3.7million, 所以就？？？ 同样的以为，liabilities会增加4million, 结果只增加了3.7million. 还有， 以为cash会减少3.8million， 结果， 只减少3.2million, 更加？？？ 结论是： consolidated financial report, 还真的不简单哪！

fcthow兄，tekyong兄， 您在那里？
对了， goodwill 是怎样amortised的？？ 下一季， 要如何预测？？

consolidated financial report本来就是很复杂的，goodwill也不一定是acquisition cost-net asset acquired那么简单，所以根据consolidated financial report的资料就可以了。

我认为收购的公司的 goodwill 并不是 572000, 原因。。。。

看 cash flow statement.
<------CASH FLOWS FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES-------->       
Acquisition of a subsidiary company        -3,156000
Purchase of property, plant and equipment        -1,069000

它不止收购公司，它还买了property, plant and equipment。。。。

--------这段，讲错删除-------


那么，如何计算 子公司的 goodwill? 我猜是这样的。
看 note 11 得资料

收购价 = a = 3851244
Increase in the Group's net assets as at 30 September 2004 = b = 3473000

子公司的 goodwill = a-b

[ Last edited by tekyong on 25-11-2004 at 04:42 PM ]

khimkhim

如果用 “上个quarter 的 shareholers' equity + 这个 quarter 的 net profit
= 现在的 shareholers' equity  "
那shareholder funds 是117456比120273还少。 所以， ？？？？

"这个quarter 刚刚被收购， 所以不用 amortised.
amortised的方法和 depreciation "一模一样"。是会造成 income loss 的。"
一样是straight line basis. 嗯， 下个quarter, 我会注意的， 到时我就知道了。

"所以，下个quarter, property, plant and equipment 的 goodwill 会 "不见" ，将会加去 "资产的一部分"，然后慢慢的amortised。。。。"

可以吗？ 嗯， 还真的不明白耶。 如果， 它只还了3.156million, 其它部分， 就加进去liability还可以理解。 但是，用property来代替goodwill就？？？？

“收购价 = a = 3851244
Increase in the Group's net assets as at 30 September 2004 = b = 3473000
自公司的 goodwill = a-b ”
是378244， 跟572000还有一点差别。 也许就象您所说的， goodwill不是572000, 然后就买property。。。。 就如您所说的那样。
嗯， 需要时间消化一下。。。

谢谢tekyong兄， 和fcthow兄。 谢谢！

P/S: 下个quarter出来后， 再来比较一下， 说不定我们会有更正确的答案。

如果用 “上个quarter 的 shareholers' equity + 这个 quarter 的 net profit
= 现在的 shareholers' equity  "
那shareholder funds 是117456比120273还少。 所以， ？？？？

1.所以我们只能看概况。
2.所以，这项收购行动，没有影响公司的 shareholders' equity.


goodwill 的 amotrtised 方法,我还不是清楚。
所以，我可能讲错。
举例1，
property 的 goodwill ,只能在 "买卖的一刹那" 产生，
--------这段，讲错删除-------

举例2，
patent 专利权，就不一样了， 越接近截止日期，就会越不值钱，所以要时常amortised.
可能政府 "随时" 取消patent, 或者 "随时" 派发另一张patent 给其他人。。。
由於有 "风险"，所以，
--------这段，讲错删除-------


其实我不大肯定，肯定会有错的地方。
不够时间看masb。
www.masb.org.my
(个人觉得，不鼓励你去看，去"走马看花"就好)

[ Last edited by tekyong on 25-11-2004 at 04:42 PM ]

USA

khimkhim 于 25-11-2004 01:45  说 :
如果用 “上个quarter 的 shareholers' equity + 这个 quarter 的 net profit
= 现在的 shareholers' equity  "
那shareholder funds 是117456比120273还少。 所以， ？？？？

"这个quarter 刚刚 ...

不是用property来amoritsed ，用一个简单的方法。
ie ：-
acqusition price – nta =goodwill

nta=fixed assets + current assets-current liabilities

fixed assets =            1000
current assets =        2000
current liabilities = (1300)
                               -------
nta                        1700
acqusition price      (2800)
                        -------
position goodwill    1100       
                        ====       

1100就拿来amortised。
如何amortised就要看回notes。比如：用10年，那每一年是110。

goodwill         1100
amortised        (110)
                   -------       
第2年goodwill 990
amortised        (110)
                  -------       
第3年goodwill  880
                                                
(rm110以这一个收购goodwill来算，他可能有几种goodwill)

没有关系到property, plant and equipment(fixed assets)
如果有读过principle account，Tingkatan 4，5就有提过。

USA

tekyong 于 6-10-2004 06:02  说 :




假如看报告的功力及格的话，公司在搞什么都可以看清楚的。(不要忘了annoucement)

我每天在检讨一些奇怪的问题,比如:
为什么 ytl 不停的 share buyback??? 目前还没有答案。


太抬举了。
不过，到 ...

他的钱多的是，share buyback算是有什么！
可能PE低，可能将来有人要做小股东，
他可以买卖自己的股，也可以充淡PE等等！
不要忘记现在市这么的低！

USA 于 25/11/04 01:39 PM  说 :


不是用property来amoritsed ，用一个简单的方法。
ie ：-
acqusition price – nta =goodwill

nta=fixed assets + current assets-current liabilities

fixed assets =            1000
current ass ...

USA, 我大概知道了。
之前是我弄错。

比如，
我用205, 向你买一块 "账面价值" 是 100块的地。
而这块地的"账面价值"，是十年前定下来的，至今没有重估过。
而现在是市价(market fair value)是 200.

那么，我用205向你买这块地，goodwill
是 5， 不是 105.
(之前我以为是 105.)

假如这个 5, 是要分十年 amortised, 那么，你每年将会 亏 RM0.5

[ Last edited by tekyong on 25-11-2004 at 03:46 PM ]

USA

tekyong 于 25-11-2004 15:39  说 :


USA, 我大概知道了。
之前是我弄错。

比如，
我用205, 向你买一块 "账面价值" 是 100块的地。
而这块地的"账面价值"，是十年前定下来的，至今没有重估过。
而现在是市 ...

地是没有 amortised，地是可以说是永久。(在多数时候)
为什么要amortised呢?building 就要 amortised。

如果只是买入地，那么账目会record205。没有goodwill会出现。

过了一年是200(Revaluation report)，那么亏损RM5直接放在是 income statement
(205-200=5)

又过了一年，又valued = 220，那么赚到RM15，但赚到一部份RM5
放在是income statement，RM10放revaluation reserve。
(原因上一年放在income statement，要 Contra)


就是这么Simple。

khimkhim

tekyong 于 25-11-2004 11:58  说 :

1.所以我们只能看概况。
2.所以，这项收购行动，没有影响公司的 shareholders' equity.


goodwill 的 amotrtised 方法,我还不是清楚。
所以，我可能讲错。
举例1，
property 的 goodwill ,只能在 " ...

tekyong大哥， 走马看花的功夫， 我可强了， 放心吧。 ~可可可~
其实， 我也只看概况而已。 只是， 多了解一点也无妨。 谢谢喽！

谢谢各位仁兄！ 谢谢！

如果只是买入地，那么账目会record205。没有goodwill会出现。

yes, 这个就是为什么我之前说 "goodwill 会不见"。 原来是这样。弄懂了谢了。


关于revaluation of asset...可能其他人不懂，我解释清楚。。。。

重估(revaluation of asset)所带来的增值=不会增加 income.
重估(revaluation of asset)所带来的贬值=会造成 loss. (impairment loss)

除非是 reversal of revaluation(devaluation), 才会 增加income.
就是之前 贬值(亏)了 "多少" ，  之后你只能 reverse(还原) "多少" 回去。

[ Last edited by tekyong on 26-11-2004 at 03:06 AM ]

bursamalaysia

guikianhaw 于 20-9-2004 22:29  说 :
PTARAS

Year        High (RM)        Low (RM)        Avg (RM)        ROE        EPS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1994        1.494        1.335        1.383
1995        1.753        1.161        1.339
1996        3.870        1.439        2 ...

清问大兄，你是怎样拿到那些数据的？如之前的history highest price and lowest price, average price for every year. 可指导小弟一下吗？

糊涂

第二季的业绩报告出炉了，
EPS = 3.03
上半年的EPS为：3.83 + 3.03 = 6.85分
比去年稍微差些，不过其投资部为志入账目的纸上盈利已增加至2.17million，
今年的盈利应该较去年好些，可惜却没有什么大惊喜，算是平平无奇吧！

有点值得留意的是：投入投资部的资金比重逐渐增加了。(未知祸福)

simon_ncc

糊涂 于 20-2-2005 12:21 AM  说 :

糊涂兄:
这些数据可以从那里找到呢?现在....好像离你的目标价还很远......

糊涂

数据可以从BM的网站中取得(看顶置的新手区)，然后输入Excel整理一会就可以见人了。

糊涂

第三季的业绩报告，
EPS = 3.92分
上半年的EPS为：3.83 + 3.03 + 3.92 = 10.77分
其投资部截至3月31日的纸上亏损为319,000，预计在下一季会进一步恶化。
短期内还是观望较好。。


数据：

[ 本帖最后由 糊涂 于 30-8-2005 02:37 AM 编辑 ]