【专题讨论】美国次贷讨论区

xiaoyuer82

原帖由 8years 于 1-3-2008 02:26 AM 发表
哇，全球最大都可以睁着眼睛讲大话，到底还有什么人的话可以相信？？

相信 自己啦        所以说保险股是最不能买的了。。。   股神不是说了吗

hoollly

在最新的deutsche bank报告里,credit market上面credit spread已经达到前所未有的地步,预测未来大型金融机构的default rate在5年内达到21%的高境界.
在1970年中期,也就是美国经济最不景气的年代,美国上市企业一年的default rate只有3%,5年default rate为14%.
今天在市场上,银根紧缩,贷款保险奇贵无比,明显,对冲基金已经用金钱向市场宣布了他们的看法,也就是世界各大金融机构里面,未来最少1/5会倒掉.

hoollly

Bernanke Urges Banks to Forgive Portion of Mortgages (Update6)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aLPiHQ.ASN48&refer=us

现在疑问是,如果银行说借钱的人不用还,那么银行储户的钱由谁来还?

一个国家给每人每年派1000块,国家经济会繁荣.
但是一个国家如果每年印100万块出来派给每个人,是不是代表这个国家每个人都会变成百万富翁?

我实在是无法相信,这句话竟然是由一个经济学家说出来的.直到我真的在bloomberg看到为止.

khokhokho

原帖由 hoollly 于 5-3-2008 02:55 PM 发表
Bernanke Urges Banks to Forgive Portion of Mortgages (Update6)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aLPiHQ.ASN48&refer=us

现在疑问是,如果银行说借钱的人不用还,那么银行储户的钱由谁来 ...

再這麼印錢也沒用，因為沒人要接受們國家的錢，等於自殺方式出來的後果，到時那里人民會變的更加沒錢。

tan81

愚蠢的决定。不过看他降息来救市，就知道他不打算采取严厉的手法。
治标不治本，只是拖延问题。看来美国的次贷会演得更久。

Mr.Business

很感谢hoollly和mastercode和各位网友很热心的讨论美国次贷带来的各种问题。。可是看着这些帖子被埋藏，我觉得很可惜，所以我将他们合并，并成立<美国次贷讨论区>,请大家踊跃在这儿分享消息和讨论。谢谢。

Mr.Business

相不相信Tan Teng Boo的话？

新闻。

Thursday March 6, 2008

Opportunity amid the market panic

CAPITAL TALK

As the Year of the Rat kicks in, it looks like i Capital’s prediction is becoming true

AFTER the surprise 75basis-point cut, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) followed very quickly with a 50 basis-point cut. With these, we all know that the Fed is making up for lost time.  

Gradually, investors would be less concerned with a Fed that is behind the curve and would be able to look forward to a recovery and a rally.

Unlike the Japanese government after the 1990 market peak, the US government is much more concerned with making sure that the housing contraction does not lead to a recession, even a mild one.  

As a result, besides the monetary easing, the US government is implementing a sizeable fiscal stimulus, the effects of which would be felt pretty fast.  

Even before these measures were announced, it would now look like the US economy, while slowing down, is not in danger of collapsing.  

Retail sales, a sensitive indicator of current economic conditions, rose in January, the month when the equity markets crumbled and when fears over a global credit and liquidity crunch were at the highest.  

Instead of the consumers going into hiding and fearing that the economy would tank, they actually went out to buy.  

If the US economic data come in at this rate, investors would start to look beyond the valley. Unnoticed by many, some very smart investors are already doing that.

The corporate insiders, i.e. officers, directors, and the largest shareholders of the listed corporations, are buying.  

These insiders are required by law to report immediately to the Securities and Exchange Commission whenever they buy or sell their companies’ shares.  

Their buying or selling is a pretty good indicator of the valuation of the listed companies.  

What analysts do is to track the ratio of buying versus selling. Normally, the ratio of selling would exceed buying, as insiders often sell the shares they receive from their companies.  

For January, the ratio showed that the number of insiders buying exceeded those selling. If you think that this is a bullish sign, you are right.  

The last time such a bullish reading was emitted was in November 2002, before the NYSE embarked on its five-year bull run.

If one takes away all the noise from the mass media and the financial markets, this bullish insider buying makes sense.  

The current panic basically came from the subprime problem.  

The US housing industry was already contracting but no one really paid much attention to this until the subprime problem emerged.  

Why? The contracting housing industry was not hurting the large financial institutions but the subprime problem is.  

Given the important financial intermediation and credit creation roles played by the financial institutions, their health naturally became a policymaker’s concern.  

Also, it was more sensational and thus more profitable to report the problems and losses of the large financial institutions rather than the problems of some inconspicuous property or housing companies.  

So what was essentially a two-year-old story became the headline story, greatly aggravated by analysts and investors forecasting dire conditions ahead for everyone.  

This greatly distorted the seriousness of the situation.  

On the level of the real economy where businesses are actually run, the conditions are more or less normal. There is no panic, no shortage of buyers or sellers.  

Global growth remains strong with pockets of weakness here and there.  

Since the corporate insiders have a real business perspective, they therefore can see that the current market panic presents an investing opportunity. And so they bought. One man’s risk is another man’s opportunity.

The last issue of i Capital said the low set on Jan 23 marked the low for this correction phase. It retains this view.  

i Capital retains its short-term outlook of the S&P 500 at 1,280 to 1,500 points but expects the trend to be biased upwards.  

i Capital is still retaining its bullish medium-term target for the S&P 500 at 1,750.

Mr.Business

其实我们可以来讨论讨论。美国银行为何write off掉这么多资产呢？我猜原因有三：
1. 这些资产存在于security形式上，现在情况混乱，市场没法为这些security定价，所以就当自己损失了，直接write off这些资产；
2. 一些银行的头头已经换人，自然要把前人的业绩做的有多惨就多惨，之后才能显得自己接手后的业绩进步；
3. 逼政府做事，支援他们。

可是事实上这些security代表的资产（也就是房子）还存在呀，并没有消失呀。。。Write off的资产以后可以write back回来，成为盈利，并可以为银行头头带来丰厚的bonus和高股价的。按照银行头头的角度来思考，我们就会觉得这些write off和恐慌是合理和必须的。我相信现在只是人类的greed and fear的另一次操作。随着时间，我相信人们会安心下来，继续他们的greed and fear的循环。

Mr.Business

更新: March 5, 2008 21:39

美聯儲局副主席警告
銀行或打消更多壞帳
（華盛頓5日訊）美國聯邦儲備局副主席寇恩提出警告說，美國的銀行“可能”必須忍受打消更多因房市重挫，以及普遍信貸緊縮而產生的壞帳。

寇恩在準備交付國會委員會的評論中說，金融業正面臨持續性困難。

他說：“展望未來，銀行控股公司將繼續面臨市場環境的挑戰與持續性的盈餘壓力，市場調整風險溢價與估值變化時，可能要打消更多資產。”

寇恩是聯儲局貨幣政策委員會的表決委員，他說，“需要一些時間”，各大銀行才能度過房市沈重衝擊，金融市場也才能從最近低迷中復甦。

他說：“美國銀行體系正面臨一些挑戰，但整體情況依舊健全，以雄厚資金與可觀盈餘進入近期金融風暴這個時期。”

聯儲局主席柏南奇則在一場演說中指出，美國房屋遭法拍與房貸延遲繳付情況，可能會持續增加並維持一段較長時間。

美房市惡化中

他呼籲採取額外行動，避免屋主房屋遭法拍。

柏南奇預期，由於房價可能持續下跌，加上許多次級房貸屋主面臨可調整利率的重設，房屋法拍案例仍會增加。

另一方面，美國公共電台節目“市場”網站公布的專訪內容顯示，美國財政部長鮑爾森認為房屋市場情況“正在惡化”。

柏南奇要求銀行免除受困房貸戶的部分本金負擔，鮑爾森對此表示，銀行業者終將了解到，降低房貸本金，確實是比止贖查封房產代價更低的最好解決方案。

鮑爾森同時表示，抵押放款機構聯合修改房貸戶貸款條件的行動，目前已獲得愈來愈多的回應，令人欣慰。

http://www.chinapress.com.my/con ... t=0306bsa010a10.txt

scsiang82

次貸損失雖不斷　美銀行業體質仍健全-6th Mar 2008

(紐約5日訊)美國銀行業主管機關向國會保證，即使面臨次級房貸危機造成的虧損，銀行業體質仍然維持強勁。

銀行業主管機關4日告訴美國參議院銀行委員會，即使銀行業面臨獲利急速下滑，資本面仍然維持完好，也準備好面對未來可能的虧損。

聯儲局副主席多納柯安說：「美國銀行體系面臨挑戰，但整體來說仍十分健全，儘管已步入近期的金融動盪期，仍維持資本充足，獲利強勁。」

美國聯邦存款保險公司（Federal Deposit InsuranceCorp.）上週公告，第四季銀行獲利跌至16年低點，因為交易損失及壞帳準備金增加。

FDIC指出，已發現76家「問題」機構，打算重新雇用退休人士，支援處理銀行破產小組。

http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/OD_review.asp?news=17124

Mr.Business

原来美国总统大选是在04/11/2008，而新总统将在20/01/2009宣誓就任。。。那油价下跌的日子还很久。。

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008

Mr.Business

次级房贷损失 美佔半数欧佔四成 2008/03/05 17:48:26
●南洋商报

（华盛顿5日讯）美国财政部负责国际事务的助理部长洛尔瑞说，世界各国的金融单位截止目前为止，针对美国次级房贷问题所衍生的相关损失金额，总计超过2千亿美元（6千380亿令吉）。

洛尔瑞说，这超过2千亿美元的损失当中，有一半是美国各金融单位总计的损失金额，至於欧洲各金融单位的总计损失，则是佔了其中大约40％，剩下的大约10％，则是亚洲和加拿大等地的金融单位总合损失。

不过，洛尔瑞在演讲中并未依国别，详细说明亚洲各国金融单位的损失金额。

Mr.Business

联储局接连示警经济走弱 美银行业挑战严峻 2008/03/05 17:48:26
●南洋商报

（华盛顿5日讯）联储局主席伯南克周二大胆建议银行放弃部分房贷本金，被视为美国经济情势告急的征兆。在此同时，联储局其他官员也相继示警，表示美国经济短期内仍有进一步走弱的风险，而银行业面临许多严峻的挑战。

伯南克说，美国楼价会进一步下滑，楼巿危机可能加剧，按揭断供情况增加，需要做更多工作来帮助陷入困境的房屋所有者，其中包括采取更广泛的措施来冲减部分问题贷款的本金。

他在事先准备好的演讲中说，在这种环境下，通过削减本金来恢复房屋所有者的部分权益，对防止债务拖欠和止赎可能更为有效。

财政或货币政策无效

伯南克的谈话，显示他认为房市严重危及经济，无法只靠财政或货币政策解决。而他所指的范畴，已超出财长保尔森支持的拯救方案，保尔森的方案主要着眼于与贷款业者重新协商利率。

保尔森昨日就美联储主席伯南克的建议指出，应该要把借贷各方集合在一起看，会发现对银行最好也是较省成本的解决方法，是压低贷款本金，而不是强制收回房屋。我们应关注的是不想搬离房子的民众，希望他们能去找银行谈。

联储局理事米什金发表演说时说，短期内美国经济仍将处于疲弱状态，不过降息和财政刺激等措施也许有助缓和部分负面情势。

但他也强调，当前美国经济面临一些重大风险，例如房价下跌将导致消费支出缩减程度超过预期。此外，金融机构放款标准变得太过严苛、金融市场剧烈动荡，也可能造成一波恶性循环。

在另一方面，美联储副主席科恩周二协同伯南克至美国参议院报告时说， 美国银行业面临严峻的挑战，这些负面发展恐将冲击银行获利和消费贷款。

科恩指出，美国银行业需要时间解决这些挑战，而金融市场也需要时间自近期的紧绷状态中复苏。

他也指出，美国经济目前处于“动能微弱”的状态，短期内联储局也没有什么方法可以提振经济增长。但他预期，美国政府的财政振兴方案应该会有刺激效果，美国经济有望在今年稍晚开始反弹。

Mr.Business

要求银行放弃部分房贷本金 Pimco：联储局政策短绌 2008/03/05 17:48:27
●南洋商报

（纽约5日讯）全球最大债券基金管理公司Pimco共同执行长埃利安认为，伯南克这项建议突显联储局已出现政策工具“短绌”的窘境。

埃利安接受CNBC访问时说，好消息是联储局终于了解他们必须再加把劲解决美国房地产衰退引发的经济问题。

但是，他指出，周二美股下跌、美债上涨的市场反应，显示投资人了解，不论联储局怎么做，都会相对必须付出代价。

埃利安指出，虽然降低本金可能纾解那些濒临违约边缘贷款户的问题，但是从消费支出走弱、美元价值遭到贬抑的角度来看，这项做法对美国经济来说只会雪上加霜。

cc.tan

我不要说谁吧。 美国的次级房贷危机严重，大家知道了。你们自己去了解吧，亚洲那几个国家有牵涉到他们的这类贷款活动，才是受严重打击。搞不好，麻疯要出脸了。

Mr.Business

新闻。

07-03-2008: Wall St sinks on mortgage woes, economic worry

By Ellis Mnyandu

NEW YORK: US stocks tumbled on Thursday after a series of fresh jolts to credit markets and lackluster retail sales compounded worries the economy is near recession, driving the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 down 2.2% to its lowest closing level in 18 months.

Investors stormed out of stocks and into the perceived safety of government bonds at a pace last seen in mid-January just before the US Federal Reserve stepped in with an emergency interest-rate cut.

A main catalyst for the move was news that Thornburg Mortgage Inc, a "jumbo" mortgage lender, was in default after failing to meet creditor demands for more upfront cash. Thornburg shares plunged 51.5% to US$1.65 (RM5.33).

A report showing that US mortgage foreclosures hit a record high in late 2007 added to the gloom, sending the S&P financial index down 3.7% in its sixth straight daily decline.

The S&P retail index fell 4% as generally weak February sales from major department store chains, including JC Penney Co Inc, overshadowed surprisingly strong sales from Wal-Mart Stores Inc and other discounters. JC Penney shares fell 11.1% to US$42.77.

Shares of Citigroup Inc, the largest US bank by assets, led financial-sector drags on the S&P 500 with a drop of 4.4%. Shares of insurer American International Group Inc slid 3.9% and were the heaviest financial weight on the Dow.

"We are dealing with a market that at this point is still very, very jittery, wondering what's going to come out of the closet next," said Frederic Dickson, senior vice president and market strategist at DA Davidson & Co in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

"Investors seem to be moving to the safest instruments around or just diving into their fox holes. This looks pretty much like an across-the-board sell-off."

The Dow Jones industrial average slid 214.6 points, or 1.75%, to 12,040.39. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index tumbled 29.36 points, or 2.20%, to 1,304.34. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 52.31 points, or 2.30%, to 2,220.5 -- its lowest close since September 2006.

The S&P 500, which is off 16.7% from its record closing high in October, sank below its previous 2008 closing low set on Jan. 22 when the US Federal Reserve made an emergency interest-rate cut in its efforts to ease credit market strains and get a sputtering economy going.

Only one of the Dow's 30 components finished higher. Wal-Mart's stock rose 0.8% to US$49.98 after the world's largest retailer beat sales estimates.

Thornburg Mortgage said it had received a letter from JPMorgan Chase & Co notifying it of a default after it failed to meet a margin call of about US$28 million.

Adding to concerns about the financial sector, a Dutch-listed affiliate of private equity firm Carlyle Group said it has not been able to meet some margin calls and has received a notice of default.

Shares of Citigroup ended at US$21.17 on the New York Stock Exchange as the largest US bank by assets said it aims to cut its home loan exposure by US$45 billion, reduce risk and save US$200 million a year in an overhaul of its US residential mortgage business.

Shares of AIG, the world's largest insurer, finished at US$42.88, just a nickel above a five-year low.

Shares of JPMorgan, the No 3 US bank, ended down 3.4% at US$37.37, while shares of Bank of America Corp, the No 2 US bank, fell 2.7% to US$36.52.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said US home foreclosures and the rate of homes entering foreclosure hit record highs in the fourth quarter of 2007.

Wall Street's sell-off came a day before the scheduled release of the government's non-farm payrolls report, expected to show the US job market probably rebounded in February from the previous month's contraction, but not enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising.

Economists expect the report due on Friday to show non-farm payrolls rose by 25,000 in February, recovering from a drop of 17,000 in January. However, the estimates for February ranged widely from a fall of 110,000 to a rise of 100,000.

The price of the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note jumped 22/32 to 99-6/32, while its yield slid to 3.59% from 3.68% late on Wednesday as risk-averse investors snatched up government bonds. The two-year note's yield fell below 1.50% for the first time since March 2004.

On the Nasdaq, shares of Apple Inc, the maker of the iPhone and the iPod, were the top drag, ending down 2.9% at US$120.93. The stock of BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd, down 3.8% at US$97.92, also ranked among the heaviest weights on the Nasdaq.

Technology has been pounded by concerns that a faltering economy will hurt business and consumer spending. Shares of Intel Corp, which earlier this week slashed its gross margin forecast, fell 1.6% to US$19.87.

Shares of hard-hit bond insurer Ambac Financial Group fell 14.7% to US$7.42. Ambac's slide followed concern that the company's plan to raise capital may not give it enough cash to shore up its credit-worthiness in the long run.

Banks have made a firm commitment to buy more than US$500 million of Ambac's shares in a planned US$1.5 billion offering -- if other investors don't buy them, according to a person briefed on the matter.

Before the opening bell, Goldman Sachs cut price targets on the shares of Ambac and another bond insurer MBIA Inc. Goldman also said Ambac's capital plan announced Wednesday would fall US$1 billion short of an estimated requirement. MBIA shares dropped 5.5% to US$11.60.

Shares of US home finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fell to their lowest levels in more than a decade as concerns about fallout from the housing slump rattled investors. Fannie Mae dropped 10.7% to US$21.70 and shares of Freddie Mac tumbled 6.9% to US$20.14.

Four mortgage real estate investment trusts, or REITs, ranked among the biggest decliners on the New York Stock Exchange, including Anworth Mortgage Asset Corp. Its shares plunged 29.6% to US$6.23.

Volume was moderate on the New York Stock Exchange, where about 1.62 billion shares changed hands, below last year's estimated daily average of 1.9 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, about 2.25 billion shares traded, above last year's daily average of 2.17 billion.

Declining shares outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a ratio of about seven to one, while on the Nasdaq, about four stocks fell for every one that rose. -- Reuters

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/ ... a-160c4b00-dfc2c9dc

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 7-3-2008 10:50 AM 编辑 ]

hoollly

我今天在公司里面思考画着货币供应的double entry和想着关于bank run的事情.

想到一点,那就是最严重的bank run其实并不是由普通百姓引起,比如目前香港东亚银行那种,而是由offshore financial center bank run引起那种.

世界各大银行都在offshore financial center设有邮政信箱,其实offshore的运作和主体国家的运作是一致的,不过是kept in separate set of books.

由于世界有约18兆美元资金在offshore financial center,所以offshore的bank run会引起整个money creation process的崩溃.
关键其实并不在有本国保险的银行挤提,而是没有国家保险的offshore bank挤提.

hoollly

当前bailout plan里面有个section 8,这个是独裁国家无限权力合理合法化的一个条款.基本和weimar republic的article 48很一致,分别在于一个是经济,另外一个是整体政治.

Sec. 8. Review.

Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.

hoollly

原帖由 hoollly 于 4-3-2008 02:46 PM 发表
在最新的deutsche bank报告里,credit market上面credit spread已经达到前所未有的地步,预测未来大型金融机构的default rate在5年内达到21%的高境界.
在1970年中期,也就是美国经济最不景气的年代,美国上市企业一年的 ...

这些对冲基金基金预言准确了.

很多时候,东西已经明显,事实已经发生,只是看下人们足够聪明去意识到没有而已.

hoollly

原帖由 hoollly 于 29-2-2008 08:31 PM 发表
我老早就觉得保险公司招聘的方式极端容易吸引到低素质的人才,也就是比投资银行更低素质的人才.
现在爆出个60亿美元的亏损出来.
故事还没有结束...

我一直都在担心一个问题,就是如果保险公司倒闭,那么人寿保险怎 ...

保险公司雇佣的蠢人果然把我们都连累到了.

这其实和保险公司的雇佣人文化有密不可分的关系.