【BESHOM 7668 交流专区】（前名 HAIO ）

弹煮

scsiang82

业绩强劲跑赢大市　海鸥蓄势展翅高飞
二零零八年四月二日 晚上七时十七分

（吉隆坡2日讯）海鸥企业有限公司（HAIO，7668，主板贸易服务组）2008财政年第3季度成绩标青，业务营收涨势汹涌，远远超越多家证券行的预期。

海鸥截至1月杪的第3季业绩表现标青，净利达到1351万4000令吉，比较去年同期的523万9000令吉，狂飙近157.94%，令多家密切关注海鸥企业动向的证券行感到震撼。

侨丰投资银行分析报告指出，海鸥首9个月收益达2960万令吉，超出该行预期的43%；拉昔胡申研究分析员表示，海鸥表现令人惊喜，首9个月的净利已达到他们全年预测的98%，表现非常强劲；艾芬投资银行也惊叹海鸥第3季的表现已经超越其全年预测的44%。

3家证券行均看好海鸥，认为其业务展望和股价走势将持续看涨，表现强劲，不约而同的调涨海鸥2008年至2010年的净利预测，分别维持“超越大市”、“买入”与“持有”的投资评级，并预期其目标价格未来12个月内的合理价提升至5.00令吉水平。

海鸥的优异表现，除了其本身强劲的成长动力，亦和市场大势的“加持”有关。尽管央行最近释出的经济报告看淡2008年大马经济表现，经济成长率从6%调低2个百分点至5.8%，同时亦调低所有行业的预期表现，令投资者感到冷风飕飕之余，又受到全球油价上涨掀起的通货膨胀巨浪，以及第12届全国大选国阵惨胜所导致的市场悲观情绪“减持”，助长市场“淡风”，驱使投资者涌向高股息或抗跌性强的“抗跌概念股”。

根据拉昔胡申研究分析报告，在巴迪尼控股、永旺、肯德基、安利、百盛控股等芸芸抗跌股中，海鸥的本益比是市场上“抗跌概念股”中最低的，只有6.6倍，极具成长潜能，亦是受到大市看好和追捧的因素之一。

虽然通货膨胀的压力和消费意愿疲弱的因素制约着消费行业的发展，但政府调高公务员薪资以及可能调低公积金的缴纳比率，将让消费者拥有更多的可支配所得，加上民间保健意识抬头，进而带动消费意愿，让海鸥业绩继续看涨，尤其是直销和批发业务倍感乐观。

此外，海鸥董事部也宣布开展新业务，将设立一家进出口贸易公司，进军全球清真食品行业，同时也计划设立一家投资咨询公司，寻求市场，产品代理商，策略合作夥伴，中介中国企业来马寻求上市等，以促进马中双边相互投资，这两项利好因素亦加强了投资机构对海鸥的信心及期望。

http://www.kwongwah.com.my/news/2008/04/02/90.html

Mr.Business

看来投资机构还真喜欢海鸥。。。

tan81

收了钱，或者吃了不少票，没有办法。

弹煮

陈老板生意手腕果然不是盖

基金小子

請教一下。。
在haio的年報里看到的Return on shareholder's fund。。
那麼Return on shareholder's fund請問它是跟ROE同樣意思的嗎??

scsiang82

海鸥企业逆流而上 2008/04/07 12:56:27
●南洋商报

海鸥企业(HAIO, 7668，主板贸服股)是本地一家优质的控股公司。

该公司的核心业务为批发及零售中、西名酒、茶叶和中国药材等。

它主要是通过连锁店与直销网络销售旗下产品。

值得关注的是，海鸥企业的直销业务占总营业额逾50%，另外，其直销业务主要是针对马来消费市场，于直销行业内拥有不俗的发展潜能。

根据该公司于3月26日公布的季度财务报告显示，海鸥企业为其投资者交出亮丽的成绩单。

该公司截至2008年1 月31日累积首9个月业绩营业额从前期的1亿3千263万令吉增至2亿4千零27万令吉，增幅高达81%。而其净利则从之前的1434万令吉增加至2988万令吉，猛涨108%。

该公司的股价自1月3日写下3.40令吉的高价后，随着大市节节下滑。后来，在3月10日马股大跌之时，其作价写下2.71令吉的低点。

隔日，海鸥企业的股价开始收复失地，回扬至3令吉水平。

在最新业绩出炉之后，其股价走势强劲，逆流而上，成为这轮股市下调，抗跌能力强的中小资本公司之一。

上周五，该股挂收于3.22令吉，按周涨6仙或1.9%。

尚处利好讯号

从日线图分析，其日线异同平均乖离指标(MACD)于3月17日划出黄金交叉。而它的7日与21日移动平均线则在3月25日划出利好讯号，维持至今。

技术分析而言，海鸥企业的当前阻力水平为3.30～3.38令吉之间，其当前支持水平则处于3.00～3.08令吉之间。

http://www.nanyang.com/index.php?ch=7&pg=12&ac=831092

stereo

为什么没有蒙牛的消息了的？？是管理层的效率满还是政府的效率满？我很想喝他的奶的说。

弹煮

日图：这个星期五收高于3.10，后市可期。


周图：涨势有vol支持。macd金叉可期，但须慎防阴沟里翻船，等真的金叉了再采取行动 也不迟。

Mr.Business

新闻。

Tuesday April 8, 2008
New products drive Hai-O’s earnings
By YEOW POOI LING



PETALING JAYA: A continuous flow of new products will ensure that Hai-O Enterprise Bhd’s earnings continue to be healthy in the financial year ending April 30, 2009 (FY09), according to financial controller Hew Von Kin.

The company, which is mainly engaged in manufacturing, wholesaling and multi-level marketing (MLM) of traditional herbal and pharmaceutical products, is mulling over a venture into the cosmetic and skincare segment next year.

“We’re looking at bringing overseas products, like those from South Korea,” Hew told StarBiz in a telephone interview yesterday. Presently, two of the company’s best selling products are the water filter and healthcare supplements.

He said the water filter was introduced two years ago and sales picked up in early 2007 when it launched the second-generation model.

“This (FY09) is the full year impact for the new filter,” he added.

Managing director Tan Kai Hee said the company also saw potential in introducing halal drink products to China, particularly in Xian, where a large Muslim community lived.

“It is still at very early stage. We need to have more discussions with various parties before making a decision,” he said.

Meanwhile, Hew said sales from Indonesia would kick in once operations take off by end of this year.

Hai-O posted a strong third quarter ended Jan 31, with net profit almost 170% higher at RM13.4mil compared with RM5mil in the previous corresponding period.

Sales doubled to RM100.5mil from RM51.4mil previously. For the first nine months, earnings per share (EPS) improved to 40.07 sen against 20.51 sen a year ago.Hai-O is consistently one of the best-performing groups with a large part of its business in MLM.

Hew said for FY09, it would be difficult to replicate the same growth rate seen in FY08, which was buoyed by the MLM division that grew more than 160% in the first nine months.


Tan Kai Hee

The MLM division was likely to continue to see about 2,000 new members every month.

Even in an economic downturn, MLM would still be quite good, as people would look for part-time income, he said, adding that the pay rise for public servants would also boost sales.

Hai-O’s current MLM members and customers are mainly government servants living in urban areas.

“Currently, we are expanding the network to cover rural areas too,” Hew added.

OSK Investment Bank, in a report, estimated that Hai-O would post net profit of RM38.3mil in FY08, and expected this to grow about 10% higher to RM42mil in FY09.

Hai-O’s balance sheet remained strong with net cash per share of 73 sen, it said, adding that the company was likely to declare a final dividend of 12 sen, bringing the total dividend for the year to 20 sen per share.

Based on yesterday’s closing price of RM3.20, this translates into a yield of 6.3%. The stock is attractively valued at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 times on OSK’s estimated FY09 EPS of 50.6 sen.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 877775&sec=business

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 8-4-2008 02:11 PM 编辑 ]

dreamer55

所有已经以及想要投资海鸥的朋友，或许都该参考以下部落格，看看著名（我个人认为他确实是大名鼎鼎）的blogger - Moola 对海鸥提出的一些疑问。8k 前辈曾经暗批 Moola 是一个悲观的投资者，总是喜欢发掘很多让投资者裹足不前的疑问。无论如何，Moola 是最早对 Megan 及 MEMS 提出质疑的 blogger 之一，而事后发生的事也证明了他所提出疑问的正确性。Enjoy your reading。

http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/2008/04/review-of-hai-o.html

Mr.Business

很好的分析 (他的论点跟我和一些网友的看法差不多)。

节录段落：

Broker Coverage

Affin, OSK and RHB Research covers the stock. So does I-Capital.

RHB in its latest report:

Corresponding to the change in our FY04/08-10 earnings projection, indicative fair value is upgraded to RM4.64 from rm4.04 based on unchanged target PE of 19x CY08 EPS, which is at 40% discount to our CY08 target PE of 16x for the consumer sector, to reflect the smaller earnings base and market capitalisation. Maintain Outperform.
Note: I see CY08 earnings net profit forecasted by RHB is at 38.1 million. (ttm earnings indicates a net earnings of 37.6 million)

OSK in its latest report:

Maintain BUY. Having taken into account on the current stock market condition and our downgrading in the GDP projection from 6.2% to 5.8%, we are now more conservative thus assuming the lower band of the PE and P/BV of the retail sector. Notwithstanding, our target price revised higher following the earnings revision; and rolling our numbers to FY09. We peg a target price of RM5.00 (previously RM4.60) by applying the composite of 10x (previously 12x) over FY09 EPS of 50.6 sen and P/BV of 2.6x (previously 3x). We reiterate our BUY recommendation on Hai-O.
Note: I see OSK is basing HaiO value on its estimation of HaiO's FY09 earnings, which is estimated at 42 million.

The reports can be be downloaded here: Hai-O Robust earnings driven by MLM division, Hai-O 3QFY04/08 Results Boosted by MLM and Hai-O Amazing Performance

Pros

1. Earnings have been absolutely fantastic the past 2 years or so.

2. Balance Sheet is looking fantastic. Its cash flow is simply awesome!

Concerns

1. Is this a flash in a pan?

What's driving this success for HaiO? Last June, the following article was published on Star Business: MLM and pu-er tea to drive Hai-O sales. The following section is worth noting:

The sterling performance was due to the MLM division, more intensive sales promotions by the retail division for its royalty customer programme and additional sale of pu-er tea.

Revenue contribution from the MLM division grew 84% while the wholesale segment jumped 119% in FY07.

In addition, the company’s profit margins had improved, thanks to the ringgit appreciation, which lessened import costs and it saved RM1.5mil from a waiver of rental costs and reimbursement on certain expenses for leasing of a shopping complex.

Higher investment income also added to the profitability, Hai-O said.

In keeping to its promise to pay 50% of after-tax profit to shareholders, Hai-O has declared a final dividend of 13 sen per share, bringing the total dividend for FY07 to 18 sen a share.

“We’re proud to be able to sustain our growth since we’ve been around for 32 years now,” Tan said, adding that by carrying only premium products, it was able to fetch better margins.

The MLM model was also seen as sustainable as Hai-O had an average of 1,000 new recruits every month, he noted.

Hai-O has started opening retail outlets in high-traffic shopping malls, such as 1 Utama, Queensbay Mall (Penang) and Pearl Point (Old Klang Road), he said, adding that previously it was focused on shoplots.

Next year, another outlet is targeted to open in Mid Valley Megamall.
From a PURE investing perspective, serious consideration has to be made on the sustainability of HaiO's impressive earnings. In short, is it a flash in a pan.

As stated, pu-er tea and aggressive MLM is driving in the earnings.

Is there a sustainable long term competitive advantage in these two factors?

For example, pu-er tea. How many people you know really drinks this tea? Is it a fad? Is there a substitute equivalent? How much do you really know about this tea?

And then you have the MLM issue, all which is so highly debatble of course. Some believe strongly in such marketing strategy, while some don't because they believe that MLM simply don't last! ( The following recent article is interesting too: Top Hai-O agents earn RM1mil a year - wow, so lucrative?)

How? Would you rate this as a concern at all?

2. Is there a risk to HaiO strong cash balances?

I like to look at the past. It gives an idea what the company has done before and I used it as a rough indicator. For example, in the case of HaiO's strong cash balances, the main concern is what if the company squanders the cash by spending in an extravagant manner? Would this not be a legimate concern? After all, we are talking about investing (buy-and-hold long term) in this stock?

Back in 2003, there was an interesting article on HaiO.


(The above screenshot of the article is clickable for a larger and clearer image or u can see the same article here: http://www.hai-o.com.my/cms/layout/Printer.asp?ProductID=62 )

The following section of the article was very interesting for me:


On why Hai-O was venturing into the IT sector, he said: “We are debt free and cash rich as we have RM8mil in fixed deposits, RM4mil in our current account, and RM20mil in overdraft facilities. Therefore, we will venture into any business if it can bring us some benefit.”
I didn't like how and what's been said. Rather arrogant in my opinion.

Firstly, HaiO then was a simple Chinese herbs player. That it wanted to venture into IT was a shocker! A shocking diversification if you asked me. And the manner it talked about its cash balances to the media was rather so arrogant!

And what's more shocking is the following table below.


As one can see from the above table, for its fy 2003. HaiO had a total cash of 13 mil. And note that the above table indicated a huge jump in the number of shares in HaiO.

And when I dig deeper, I noted that HaiO had a Rights Issue in 2003.

Now how? This gives a whole meaning of being cash rich company, yes? See, their debt free and cash rich was not via the company's hard work but this net cash resulted from a rights issue!

And what happened next was interesting.

Now if one look at its 07 Q4 quarterly earnings (Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/4/2007), one would note..

On 18 April 2007, the Company disposed of the entire 100% equity interest in Hai-O Informtech Sdn Bhd , comprising of 2,000,000 ordinary shares of RM 1.00 each for a total cash consideration of RM 280,000.
Invested 2 million.. sold for 280,000. What about the extras spend during this period? Remember the inital plan was to spend as much as 10 million!

And if one refer back that April 18th announcement: DISPOSAL OF SHARES IN HAI-O INFORMTECH SDN BHD (533171-D)

3. EFFECTS OF THE DISPOSAL The Disposal is not expected to have any material impact on the issued and paid-up share capital and shareholding of the major shareholders of Hai-O. The Disposal is also not expected to have any material impact on the net assets and earnings of Hai-O Group for the current financial year.
No material impact?

Take 2007 numbers. It said that it earned a net earnings of 22.114 million. Take this investment of 2 million. Sold at 280k. This is a loss of 1.716million. Yes it's small. BUT do compare 1.716 million to its net earnings of 22.114mil. Well that's about 7.7%.

And strangely, I do not see where and how HaiO accounts for this loss.

Anyway would you call that as an example of past extravagent spending?

Fast forward to present day.

Hai-O buying land in Klang for new facilities (See also: New warehouse to contribute positively to Hai-O in 2009 )

Hai-O buying land in Klang for new facilities
21 Dec, 2007
Source: New Straits Times

HAI-O Enterprise Bhd, a wholesaler and retailer of Chinese herbs and medicine, is spending RM50 million to buy a plot of land and build new facilities in Kapar, Selangor.

The company will pay RM45 million to Bata (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd for a 11.2ha site, and spend another RM5 million to set up a new factory and a warehouse there, senior officials said.

It has yet to finalise the building plan and manufacturing output, they added.

Managing director and chief executive officer Tan Kai Hee said the company would use its reserves to pay for the land and build new buildings to expand its manufacturing output. It may also consider a private placement to raise the fund.

"We are cash-rich, generating RM10 million to RM15 million annually to our reserves," Tan told reporters at the signing of a sale and purchase agreement on the Kapar land in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.

Financial controller Hew Von Kin said Hai-O would use about 6.8ha of the land to build new facilities, while the balance of 4.4ha would be leased back to Bata for handsome fees.
Oh oh.

Where did I read this statement, "We are cash-rich, generating RM10 million to RM15 million annually to our reserves" before?

Dejavu again?

Some view an investment into a stock as being a business partner of the company. Now as a business partner of this business, how do you feel if your partner keeps telling the whole world that they are cash-rich?

And what about this 50 million land purchase again?

Tell me, am I biased or is the sum of this purchase simply way too extravagant? Isn't it simply excessive?

Isn't it like back in 2003. Company had no expertise in IT but yet it went in big time. And now spending 50 million to buy land.

Instead of trying to justify this so-called investment, let's focus on the size instead.

50 million is a lot of money!

Why can't this company spend 10 million instead?

Seriously, can the company not buy land and built a factory with 10 million? No other land in Malaysia?

Ok, if 10 million is not enough, how about 20 million?

Surely 20 million is enough, right?

So why 50 million?

( Note: Hai-O secured RM20m loan to finance property buy )

How? Does one see concern and risk to HaiO's strong cash balances?

And do note, HaiO has been actively buying back the company shares in the open market. And that HaiO's management has promised to return back 50% of its earnings back to the shareholders as dividends and not forgetting that it's rather active with their unit trusts investments. So much plans, eh?

And it all seems to hinges on this pur-tea and MLM earnings.

How would you evaluate your risk in such an investment?

Would you invest in this company?

http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/2008/04/review-of-hai-o.html

Mr.Business

没有Kawan Haio想反驳？８年很重视管理层的效率的，为何对Haio一些奇怪的动作没看法？例如买Bata的土地。

四伯爽

转载自
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/

by Salvatore_Dali

Hey-Ho Hai-O!

Usually I would not even waste my time on a stock like Hai-O, but the exchange between Bullbear and Moolah in the Fusion chat box had been voluminous and heated at times - that had to stir my interest. Basically BB still has concerns on its business model but thinks that the current run up in revenue and profit will allow for a substantial gain via a mid term trade. Moolah does not like the MLM model and the quite silly RM50m property investment from excess funds.

BullBear posted on FusionInvestor chat: HaiO is selling at a low PE (based on ttm-eps). It earns >25% on equity and its net profit margin >10% of its revenue. The arguments centred on its management and its business franchise. IF HaiO continues to perform, those who invested into it would have a return of x% (?5%, 10%, 30%, 50%, 100%), if it underperforms, one might lose y% (?5%, 10%, 30%, 50%, 100%) . Works out the odds (x/y), and see if you like the odds.
Moolah's Concerns: Yes, HaiO is making tons of money but what's the concerns? What's yours? Well mine are the two simple issue, management and business model. Main issue here is, are the concerns that I raised legitimate? Are you comfortable with a MLM business model? Would you invest and buy-and-hold for the long term in such a business?

My Take:
1) Revenue Streams: They have three: Wholesale, Retail and MLM. Lets take a look at their last 5 quarters on revenue. Figures in RM million. Start 1Q2007, last 1Q2008.
Wholesale: 21.2 / 20.1 / 30.2 / 34.8 / 25.5
MLM: 17.3 / 21 / 28.6 / 32.8 / 40 /
Retail: 7.9 / 9.9 / 8.1 / 11.8 / 7.9 /
Very obvious that Hai-O's fortunes is solely MLM. If you take away the MLM, Hai-O should be a penny stock with a very very poor business model. They got lucky by recruiting a lot of Malay ladies to do MLM. The executive who mooted the idea should get a RM1m bonus.

2) Margins: Same revenue streams, now look at the margins in percentage: Wholesale: 16.5 / 8.4 / 19.9 / 29.8 / 12.7 MLM: 13.2 / 16.3 / 14.9 / 11.9 / 14.2 Retail: 3 / 9 / (2.1) / 5.9 / 2.0 The retail is shit, might as well dump them.

3) Hai-O struck gold with their revamped MLM strategy, now they have also expanded into Indonesia - leveraging on the bright idea that Malay and Indonesians have the same market tastes. If they stuck to the MLM, they could see a bit more interest in their stock. But they would have to come up with better ideas on what to do with the cash. Suddenly they went into property by plonking RM50m (even though they will be using a portion of the space to manufacture their products). The margins in MLM are good enough. Better if the company come up with say they will pay 75% of net profits back every year as dividends. Then investors can look forward to a proper dividend yield. If they did that, the company will be paying 12 sen in 2007 and probably 26 sen in 2008.

4) MLM is not a model that generates a lot of positives. Market is small, growth may be excellent in the initial stages but will flat out very soon. There is also the need to keep coming up with new exciting product every few months to keep sales charged up - till now, no one knows what their future best sellers will be and where they will come from. There is not coherent communication of strategy, approach, R&D, partners, etc. in this aspect.

5) Back in 2003, the top guy on why Hai-O was venturing into the IT sector, he said: “We are debt free and cash rich as we have RM8mil in fixed deposits, RM4mil in our current account, and RM20mil in overdraft facilities. Therefore, we will venture into any business if it can bring us some benefit.” OMG, this is the type of management vision we are looking at - no strategy, no vision, no plan, where are its core competencies - its a family business still run kamikaze style.

6) The most dangerous caveat why I do not like holding Hai-O is that controlling shareholders have a relatively small stake left in Hai-O. The Tan family has 25.6% and the next biggest shareholder is Maybank Smallcap with 3.9%. Its understandable if it was a large cap but it has only 82.5m shares.

The reason for the small stake is easy to fathom - obviously they owners were delighted when they got listed and could only see limited growth, hence the early sell down. Then it is obvious that the MLM success was "lucky" and kinda stumbled upon rather than part of a stronger business strategy. With 25.6% and company's coffers growing alarmingly, what do you do? If you still hold 45% or more of the shares I am sure they would declare bigger dividends and spend excess cash better. At 25.6%, to reap the good fortune, you would have to buy back a lot of shares - nah... that ain't gonna happen.

If you had a strong business strategy from day one, would you have sold down your stake from 50% to 25.6% way before the MLM exploded??!! The MLM was unexpected, hence the more fragile an opinion I have of management. As with many dicey and dubious companies where controlling shareholders have smallish stakes, if there is a lot of cash in the company, they will think of ways to take the cash out.

I am not saying Hai-O will be doing that but there is a greater likelihood. If Hai-O had RM100m in the bank now, do you think they will declare a RM1.00 cash dividend? Not on your life, not with 25.6%... maybe with a 45% stake. I am playing the devil's advocate here. If I was devious, I will "own some assets" say land or other small businesses and inject into Hai-O in exchange for new shares and cash. That way, I can inflate the assets being injected and increase shareholding in Hai-O and also take some cash out. That could happen.

Or, since I am the controlling shareholder, for every ringgit taken out, I am only entitled to 25.6%. Why do that? If I am the devil again, I would declare a very generous bonus and/or options scheme every year for the "connected senior management".

I am not saying Hai-O will do that, but the risk is much much higher given the shareholdings level. Hence the reluctance of other institutions and savvy investors to jump in even on the low PER attraction. Thus, the RM50m spending on the property project should raise more alarm bells than being viewed as a smart move to expand upstream or downstream.

我没买海鸥的
不讨厌它也不喜欢它的那一种

Mr.Business

好论点。期待Kawan Haio的看法。。。

scsiang82

谁是你的那杯茶 2008/04/13
●赖慧芳



中国人有“开门七件事，柴、米、油、盐、酱、醋、茶”，是生活中不可缺少的必需品。

由此可见，茶在中国人眼中的重要性。

为了实现以茶致富，KSC和海鸥（HaiO，7668，主板贸服股）去年底推出全球首个茶基金——KSC替代投资基金。

海鸥执行董事陈景岗向《南洋商报》表示：“这个基金的推出取决于两大重点，第一是大马天气适合普洱茶存放以及后发酵，有个说法是存放在大马1年的普洱茶，可相等于在中国存放3年。”

“所以，之前我们公司以及本地茶界都有提出一个叫大马仓的概念。以大马作为理想的仓储中心，可以为世界各地如中国，源源不绝地提供有年份的老茶。”

至于第二点是普洱茶有越老越贵，以及越陈越香的特点。这跟红酒有异曲同工之妙，但是红酒收藏期有顶限，从3年至20年不等。但是，普洱茶的存放期可达80年至100年。

收藏好茶叶

有鉴于此，海鸥集团和KSC才推出这个基金。而这个基金的目的，是收藏一些品质好、适合收藏的茶叶。

他也说：“我们和KSC的合作关系，是KSC负责募资，而我们负责挑选、管理和储存这些茶品。而像KSC替代投资基金这样经过大马交易所批准，合法大规模推出的基金，是目前全球创举。”

他也指出，目前，市场上也有一些做法，即是由一个人买100万令吉的茶品，再以几千到一万令吉的数额分售给其他人，并保证每年10％的回酬。这个方式是任何小投资者都可以买的。

“但是，这个做法在大马金融法令是属于非法的基金，只是一个私下协议，并没有保障。一旦一方毁约，投资者只能白白吃闷亏。”

他也说：“大马交易所原本是批准KSC发行5千万令吉的基金规模。但是，我们建议发行1千万令吉规模的基金，作为起步。”

“而我们成功招募了1千零50万令吉的资金，只超额一点点。但是，我们没有考虑增加基金规模。”

至于投资者群，KSC替代投资基金的投资者大部分来自本地，只有两、三个是来自新加坡。

对于推出新基金的计划，他说：“秉着海鸥一贯的稳健作风，我们会在KSC替代投资基金3年期满后，才会考虑推出另一个基金。”

未来或提供

专业仓储中心

陈景岗表示：“由于KSC替代投资基金是一个3年封闭式基金，因此投资者在三年后才能获得回酬。”

至于投资回酬率，他说：“这个基金不能保证能够为投资者带来一定的回酬，因为这样会触犯大马金融法令。但是这个基金属于保本型投资，能够给予投资者一定的保障。”

“尽管如此，我们保守估计每年应该可以为投资者带来10％的回酬，这已经比银行定期存款的回酬率高许多。”

“虽然投资回酬是两、三年后的事情，但是我们有信心投资回酬将会超过10％，因为毕竟产品是好的、茶是好的，而且随着时间，茶的品质会改善。最重要是中国市场潜能不断扩大，中国国民平均消费能力不断提高。”

中国拟与海鸥合作推出基金

陈景岗也透露：“继我们推出这个基金后，约有两、三家中国公司和我们接洽合作设立基金的事宜。”

“但是，这些中国公司必须迎合我们的两个条件，第一，中国公司必须要提供保本的优势，而第二是这些中国公司必须要拥有中国的投资者。如果投资者又是全部来自大马，就没有意义了。”

他也指出，中国目前的证券法令还不允许当地设立商品封闭式基金。

但是，由于中国的法令一直在改变，因此不排除中国以后也会有这类投资工具。

门槛较高 适合机构投资者

陈景岗说：“由于这个基金的投资门槛比较高，每个投资者的最低投资额是10万令吉。而且，我们也只有50名投资者的名额。”

“这是我们申请的时候，大马交易所拟出的条件。所以，这个基金不适合一般的小投资者。”

尽管如此，他也建议，一般小投资者想要投资的话，可以选择购买茶品来投资。

此外，他也建议散户投资者，如要买茶作为投资，尽量选择有信誉的公司。

“由于这个行业参差不齐，所以建议普通投资者可以找一些有信誉的公司。尤其是消费者在不懂的情况下，就一定要找有信誉的公司，或者是找一些‘高手’带他们进场。”

茶市场有望 3年后再创高峰

“据我们观察，目前的茶价已经触底，我们保守估计，1至2年后将会度过低潮期。”

但他指出，尽管茶市场走过低潮期后，也只能说明茶市场开始有成交量和流通量，并不一定说价格一定上升。

但是，他预测，茶市场将有望在3至5年后，另创比2007年更高的高峰。

他说：“2006至2007年是普洱茶发展的最高峰、最快速的时候。当时，中国中央媒体、电视台和各大报章，大肆报道普洱茶的好处、功效以及增值功能，促使很多人一窝蜂去抢购普洱茶，很多资金涌入，销量大好，价格虚高，有点不实在。”

“当时的茶价可以说是一天三个价，甚至8个、10个价跳动。例如，一公斤茶叶价格如果是50元，一个小时后可能是58元，再下一分钟甚至飙高至65元。”

他指出，这样的波动很不正常，也导致业者买不下手，因为不懂怎样和客户报价，报高客户又不买，报低又怕以后进货又贵了。

直至去年6月，这个泡沫终于爆破，并一直延续至11、12月，才回到一个比较平稳的价位。

消费者增加

但他也认为，目前的茶市反而能让消费者以更低廉的价格购买茶品。“据我们观察，消费者已经增加。以长远来看，这个是好事。”

他也估计，在2至3年后，我国茶市会有一个比较正常、健康的发展，至少流通量不会像一潭死水一样。

“所以，这个基金对我们来说是一个很适合的投资渠道。因为这个基金避免了这种起起落落的风险。而且在去年底，我们推出这个基金，我们以非常低的价格购买到一些很好的茶品。假设将来再来一个牛市，可以为我们创造一个很好的基础。”

至于目前茶价，他说：“以新茶均价来看，每公斤约为30至50人民币。除非是名种茶叶，每公斤可达50至200人民币不等。”

市场结构变化 普洱茶证券化难行

陈景岗说：“在几年前，当普洱茶还是处在有点垄断的局面时，或许可行。但是现在我们发现，由于整个市场结构变化，市面上出现越来越多厂家和茶品种类，使证券化活动越来越难进行。”

例如在2000年，中国云南主要只有两个大厂家，而那两个厂家的产量占了整个云南绝大部分。如果它们的产量多达2千箱，它们可以将1千箱推出市场流通，而余下的1千箱用来储存。而这1千箱可以作为交易所，让不同投资者凭票拥有这些茶叶。

垄断局面已破

“当时，我们想的就是一个如此简单化的单一茶品证券化。但是，如今这个市场变化太大了，有很多复杂因素。首先，这个市场已经打破垄断局面，茶厂太多（目前整个云南有上千家茶厂）、茶品太多，已经形成竞争。”

因此，他认为，单一茶品的证券化恐怕做不到，除非云南政府垄断整个行业就另当别论。

“但是，要将茶品证券化也不是不可能，如果市面上的茶基金越来越多，又能把众多基金揽在一个篮子，就能将茶证券化。但是，这还需要一个很漫长的时间。”

http://www.nanyang.com/index.php?ch=9&pg=29&ac=833179

8years

我非常期待大家看坏haio，请继续唱坏

感谢感谢

Mr.Business

你没反驳。都不好玩了。。。

8years

等我买完了，我才反驳咯。 在这之前，我希望大家尽量压低haio的股价。

stereo

原来现在还不够低啊！害我进到贵货鸟。