危机可能已经见底了，不过。。。

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 26-6-2009 04:40 PM 发表 我覚得是很有可能. H1N1, 很多人都不敢出門了. TRAVEL AGENTS, AIRLINES, 购物商場要自求多福.裁員是很有可能的, 10% 的UNEMPLOYMENT = 大把人没$消费, 经済要怎样好?

股市是靠信念和Green Shoots 的口号支持住
刚刚看了消息，美国人的储蓄起到6.9%，收入起了一点多%(感谢Obama派钱）
美国2/3的经济是靠消费推动，为了还债，相信储蓄会起到10%
所以只有白痴才会相信美国经济会出现V性反弹

股龙

股市调整是什么意思?
我是新手，不是很了解！

tanhy

原帖由 股龙 于 26-6-2009 09:15 PM 发表 股市调整是什么意思?我是新手，不是很了解！

即是跌的意思
调整就是adjustment

股龙

原来如此！！
谢谢你tanhy大大！

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 26-6-2009 09:00 PM 发表

股市是靠信念和Green Shoots 的口号支持住
刚刚看了消息，美国人的储蓄起到6.9%，收入起了一点多%(感谢Obama派钱）
美国2/3的经济是靠消费推动，为了还债，相信储蓄会起到10%
所以只有白痴才会相信美国经济 ...

大大可以解释多一點麼? V 回彈和SAVING 有什麼闗系.

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 30-6-2009 09:05 AM 发表


大大可以解释多一點麼? V 回彈和SAVING 有什麼闗系.

美国经济有70%是靠消费，在房市好景时，美国人都靠投机房地产，然后抵押给银行套现
在那时候，钱来得太容易，所以在90-97那段日子，saving 是接近0，甚至-ve
表面上经济一片大好，其实就是每个人借贷来消费

现在房地产爆炸。一大批人负资产，被逼把美国政府派出来的钱存上来还债
saving 一高， spending 就跌，经济自然就很难复苏

一些人看回历史，就会以为经济一复苏, 好日子又回来，炒家就乘机把股票炒高，然后拿出历史来说明股市大起代表经济会回弹
其实之前那些V性反弹多是循环型复苏，而这次我们面对的问题是结构型
deleveraging (把那些债务消化掉）过程需要时间，要等到房市掉进谷底，经济才算真正回弹

现在那些经济less bad 的数据全都是各国central bank 拼命印钞票来谷，或直接派钱（看美国就知道了）
如果这样就行，那我们还做什么工？全部印钞票就有饭吃了

很简单的问题，银行的有毒资产还在不在？
银行把mark-to-market 会计拿掉，难道就代表没有亏本？
美国政府这个月把钱派给你，难道下个月又派？
GM 和 Chrysler的retailer 把车贱卖，结果durable goods sales 上升，难道下个月又贱卖？

巴非特说他看不到green shoots, Bernake说他看到
谁的话比较可以信？

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 30-6-2009 01:22 PM 发表


美国经济有70%是靠消费，在房市好景时，美国人都靠投机房地产，然后抵押给银行套现
在那时候，钱来得太容易，所以在90-97那段日子，saving 是接近0，甚至-ve
表面上经济一片大好，其实就是每个人借贷来消费

...

明白了. 我还是相信老巴.

昨天老美起了90點, 可是香港竟然跌... 看來HSINDEX 要很難才能過19K .

tanhy

Job losses hit June consumer confidence[size=1em]NEW YORK (AP) -- Mounting job losses and other economic realities caught up with Americans in June, pushing down a key barometer of consumer sentiment after a streak of gains built on glimmers of hope.

[size=1em]Some economists say the reality check offered by Tuesday's report from the New York-based Conference Board may not augur well for spending in the critical months ahead.
[size=1em]The Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 49.3, down from its revised May level of 54.8.
[size=1em]The drop coincided with mixed messages in the housing market. A report from the Treasury Department showing foreclosures jumped in the first quarter compared with 2008's fourth quarter. But a key housing price index showed price declines moderating.
[size=1em]美国人终于睡醒了

tanhy

467K jobs cut in June; jobless rate at 9.5 percentEmployers cut larger-than-expected 467,000 jobs in June; jobless rate ticks up to 9.5 percent

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Employers cut a larger-than-expected 467,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate climbed to a 26-year high of 9.5 percent. Workers also saw weekly wages fall, suggesting Americans will have little appetite to spend and the economy's road to recovery will be bumpy.

[size=1em]The Labor Department report, released Thursday, showed that even as the recession flashes signs of easing, companies likely will want to keep a lid on costs and be wary of hiring until they feel certain the economy is on solid ground.
[size=1em]June's payroll reductions were deeper than the 363,000 that economists expected and average weekly earnings dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year.
[size=1em]However, the rise in the unemployment rate from 9.4 percent in May wasn't as sharp as the expected 9.6 percent. Still, many economists predict the jobless rate will hit 10 percent this year, and keep rising into next year, before falling back.
[size=1em]All told, 14.7 million people were unemployed in June.
[size=1em]If laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have settled for part-time work are included, the unemployment rate would have been 16.5 percent in June, the highest on records dating to 1994.
[size=1em]
[size=1em]比我预料中好一些，我以为会超过9.6%

苦瓜汤

原帖由 tanhy 于 2-7-2009 11:18 PM 发表 467K jobs cut in June; jobless rate at 9.5 percentEmployers cut larger-than-expected 467,000 jobs in June; jobless rate ticks up to 9.5 percent WASHINGTON (AP) -- Employers cut a larger-than-expect ...

tanhy大大, 你的预料和ADP Employment Report已经接近了, -0.43%  
BLS靠的是大量的Survey; 而ADP直接拿Payroll Information来当sample.... 所以准确度来说ADP胜. 美国职场现在还是寒冬啊...

tanhy

7 more banks fail as FDIC mulls rules for sales7 more banks fail as FDIC seeks stronger rules for buyers of failed banks[size=1em]WASHINGTON (AP) -- Six Illinois banks and one bank in Texas were shuttered Thursday as government regulators proposed new rules for private equity firms seeking to take over failed banks.

[size=1em]That brought the number of U.S. bank failures this year to 52.
[size=1em]That's more than double the 25 which failed in all of 2008 and the three closed in 2007.
[size=1em]The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was appointed receiver of all seven. The total cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund from the seven closings will be $314.3 million, the FDIC said. The assets of most of the failed banks will be turned over to other institutions.
[size=1em]为何突然爆发倒闭潮？是不是大事发生的预兆？

tanhy

Another wave of foreclosures is poised to strike

Mortgage defaults have surged to record levels amid rising unemployment and falling home prices. Lenders are expected to move quickly to clear up backlogs as moratoriums on foreclosures expire.
By Don Lee

July 4, 2009
Reporting from Washington -- Just as the nation's housing market has begun showing signs of stabilizing, another wave of foreclosures is poised to strike, possibly as early as this summer, inflicting new punishment on families, communities and the still-troubled national economy.

Amid rising unemployment and falling home prices, mortgage defaults have surged to record levels this year. Until recently, many banks have put off launching foreclosure action on the troubled properties, in part because they had signed up for the Obama administration's home-stability plan, which required them to consider the alternative of modifying loans to make it easier for borrowers to make payments.

ust how big the foreclosure wave will be is unclear. But loan defaults are up sharply. And with many government and banks' self-imposed foreclosure moratoriums expiring, the biggest lenders indicate that they are likely to move more aggressively to clear up a backlog of troubled mortgages.


Nationally, home sales have been steadying, thanks largely to an abundance of cheap foreclosed properties, government incentives and record low mortgage rates. Housing construction starts have flattened out, helping to bring supply into balance with demand. The rate of housing price declines has slowed as well, even turning up in some communities.


But rising foreclosures will depress home values, pushing more homeowners underwater. Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com estimates that 15.4 million homeowners -- or about 1 in 5 of those with first mortgages -- owe more on their homes than they are worth.


Also, consumer confidence is already exceedingly low, and another jolt to the housing market could further crimp spending, which has been pummeled by the deep recession and persistent weakness in the job market. The latest unemployment rate, for June, rose to 9.5%, and many analysts predict that it will keep rising until the middle of next year.

tanhy

Job Losses Dampen Hopes for RecoveryUnemployment Rises To 9.5%; Stocks Slide[size=1.4em]
By
Neil Irwin
Washington Post Staff Writer

Friday, July 3, 2009


Mounting job losses rattled hopes yesterday that the economy is on track to grow later this year, showing that prospects for American workers are terrible -- and still getting worse.

Employers reduced their payrolls by 467,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department said, far more than forecasters had expected. The unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent, from 9.4 percent. And last week, another 614,000 people applied for unemployment insurance benefits.
The number of job losses had decreased every month since January before spiking again in June, and economists think it is highly likely that the jobless rate will hit double-digits later this year. A broader measure of unemployment, which includes people working part time who want full-time work and those who have given up looking for a job, has already risen to 16.5 percent. The nation now has the same number of jobs it did in 2000, meaning that nine years of employment gains have disappeared.

tanhy

MOUNTAIN OF DEBT: Rising debt may be next crisisMOUNTAIN OF DEBT: Legacy of debt from Founding Fathers not celebrated on Independence Day

[size=1em]WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Founding Fathers left one legacy not celebrated on Independence Day but which affects us all. It's the national debt.

[size=1em]The country first got into debt to help pay for the Revolutionary War. Growing ever since, the debt stands today at a staggering $11.4 trillion -- equivalent to about $37,000 for each and every American. And it's expanding by over $1 trillion a year.
[size=1em]The mountain of debt easily could become the next full-fledged economic crisis without firm action from Washington, economists of all stripes warn.
[size=1em]"Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer term, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently told Congress.
[size=1em]Higher taxes, or reduced federal benefits and services -- or a combination of both -- may be the inevitable consequences.
[size=1em]The debt is complicating efforts by President Barack Obama and Congress to cope with the worst recession in decades as stimulus and bailout spending combine with lower tax revenues to widen the gap.
[size=1em]Interest payments on the debt alone cost $452 billion last year -- the largest federal spending category after Medicare-Medicaid, Social Security and defense. It's quickly crowding out all other government spending. And the Treasury is finding it harder to find new lenders.

tanhy

N.Y. Fed's Chief Backs Preemptive Crisis MovesFed Should Get Ahead of Asset Bubbles, He Says[size=1.4em]
he Federal Reserve should break with past policy and try to identify and deflate asset bubbles before they can damage the U.S. economy, New York Federal Reserve President William C. Dudley said.
While interest-rate policy may not be the appropriate tool for popping bubbles, Fed officials have "other instruments in their toolbox," Dudley notes in the text of a speech scheduled for July 26 at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. The New York Fed released his remarks yesterday.
The Fed's view has been that bubbles can be identified only in hindsight, and that all the central bank can do is prepare to clean up after they burst. The current crisis shows that policy is mistaken, Dudley said.
"Asset bubbles may not be that hard to identify," he said. "This crisis has demonstrated that the cost of waiting to clean up asset bubbles after they burst can be very high."
Dudley did not specify what tools the Fed should use. Analysts have suggested that central bankers might raise reserve requirements or amp up restrictions on margin lending.
Central bankers could also comment publicly on asset price levels, trying to "jawbone" markets lower, as former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan did with his comments on "irrational exuberance" in December 1996.
Dudley did not discuss the current economy or monetary policy in his remarks, which deal with lessons learned in the financial crisis.

Fed里头开始有人担心泡沫，现在刺爆就好过高潮时才来爆
乱印钞票的结果是一大堆热钱涌进股市和石油，Obama想用推高股市来提高美国人信心的政策已经快失去效用
我在一些财经论讨里看到一大票的美国人死命鸟Obama, 毕竟有知识的人是不会轻易被骗的

现在很多美国人都对Obama的政策失去信心，制造另一个泡沫来盖掉之前的泡沫，简直是开玩笑

tanhy

美国加州财政吃紧 用打白条方式给政府雇员发薪

http://www.sina.com.cn  2009年07月04日 10:44  中国广播网

　　据中国之声《央广新闻》8点20分报道，在全美经济低迷的背景之下，加利福尼亚等10个州出现了严重的财政缺口。由于巨大的财政赤字，7月1号，美国加州州长施瓦辛格在新闻发布会上宣布，该州进入财政紧急状态。加州政府也从7月2号开始，用"打白条"的方式给政府雇员发工资。
　　据了解，从7月1日开始，加利福尼亚州从美国其他15个洲进入了新的财政年度，未能达成一致，州长施瓦辛格宣布加州进入了财政的紧急状态，从2日开始，用打白条的方式给政府公员发工资，这是经济大萧条以后，首次打白条。审计长表示，如果议会不能就平衡预算达成协议的话，将于7月2日发放打白条，以延缓州政府的现金流危机，预计7月份打出的白条金额约33.6亿美元，覆盖面包括学生补助、纳税人退税、州立医院、州政府、合同公司等等。这些白条和政府开出的支票类似，如果拿到银行兑现的话，可以让银行接受，州政府会给他附加一定的利息。如果状况有所改善，州政府就在今年10月1日收回白条。
　　加利福尼亚经济总量相当于全球第八大经济体，但是目前陷入了大萧条以来最严重的危机。有舆论认为，如果预算赤字长久拖下去的话，加州将成为美国第一个破产的州政府。
　　除了加州政府，亚历山大、伊里诺易等等这些洲业面临类似的财政危机问题。各个州都采取了不同的办法。例如，康尼斯特州以行政命令搞了临时的预算。比起法尼亚州则用了分期给公务员付款的办法，美国预算与政策研究中心的学者迈克尼克认为，2010财年全美至少有46个州面临财政的缺口，短缺总额将达到上千亿美元。他说，州政府有三种方法，减少储备、削减开支，以及增加税收，目前各州已经减少了储备，但剩余储备将无法抵御因此可能的衰退，剩余的两种方法也都将减缓经济复苏的步伐。州长和州议会在选择危机处理方法上出现分歧，像加州这样大打“赖皮战”，造成政治僵局，也不利于问题的解决。至于这些措施的收效，白宫发言人罗伯特·吉布斯说：“我们将继续关注加州及全国其他州的相关情况。”

tanhy

China officials call for displacing dollar, in time
BEIJING (Reuters) - The financial crisis has laid bare defects in the dollar-led global economy and the world should look to displace the U.S. currency, even if that will take many years, Chinese officials said in comments published on Monday.

The push for fundamental, if gradual, reform of the international financial system comes just before the Group of Eight summit in Italy, where China's willingness to question the dollar's role could fuel debate.

The Special Drawing Right (SDR), a unit of account used by the International Monetary Fund, presents a viable alternative to the dollar as a global reserve currency, said Li Ruogu, chairman of the Export-Import Bank of China, a major state-run bank.

"It is a feasible plan to reform the present SDR and make it into a real settlement currency, a universally accepted 'currency basket' that would replace the dollar at the heart of the monetary system," Li was cited as saying in Financial News, a newspaper published by the central bank.

The People's Bank of China made waves in March when it first suggested that the SDR, whose exchange rate is determined by a mixture of dollars, euros, sterling and yen, was better suited than any single currency to be a yardstick for global trade and a reliable store of value.

"The financial crisis caused the global economy to suffer heavy losses and it also let us clearly see how unreasonable the current international monetary system is," Li, a former central bank vice governor, said.

"But it would be difficult to find and implement a feasible replacement plan in the short term, so we will still have to travel a relatively long road for reform of the international monetary system."

Li's warning was echoed by Wang Xin, a central bank economist, who said it would be impossible "to get there in one step."

Wang, head of the central bank's financial research department, said that China was inching toward the internationalization of the yuan with the launch of a pilot programme to allow companies to settle some goods trade in the Chinese currency.

"Only when the yuan has achieved basic convertibility and when domestic financial markets are fully opened can the yuan truly become an international trade settlement currency and store of value," he said, also in comments carried by the Financial News.

愚蠢的美国政府不但没有把危机解决，烂印钞票更引起债主反击
现在金砖4国个个吵着要挑战美元的特殊地位，失去这个地位，11万亿的债务拿什么来还？

tanhy

Big Banks Don't Want California's IOUs

[size=1.3em]A group of the biggest U.S. banks said they would stop accepting California's IOUs on Friday, adding pressure on the state to close its $26.3 billion annual budget gap.
[size=1em][size=1em][size=1em]Associated Press[size=1.1em]Dorothy Cottrill of the state controller's office inspects IOUs last week.



[size=1.3em]The development is the latest twist in California's struggle to deal with the effects of the recession. After state leaders failed to agree on budget solutions last week, California began issuing IOUs -- or "individual registered warrants" -- to hundreds of thousands of creditors. State Controller John Chiang said that without IOUs, California would run out of cash by July's end.
[size=1.3em]But now, if California continues to issue the IOUs, creditors will be forced to hold on to them until they mature on Oct. 2, or find other banks to honor them. When the IOUs mature, holders will be paid back directly by the state at an annual 3.75% interest rate. Some banks might also work with creditors to come up with an interim solution, such as extending them a line of credit, said Beth Mills, a California Bankers Association spokeswoman.
[size=1.3em]Meanwhile, on Monday morning, a budget meeting between Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders failed to produce a result. Amid the budget deadlock, Fitch Ratings on Monday dropped California's bond rating to BBB, down from A minus, the latest in a series of ratings downgrades for the state.
[size=1.3em]The group of banks included
Bank of America
Corp.,
Citigroup
Inc.,
Wells Fargo
& Co. and
J.P. Morgan Chase
& Co., among others. The banks had previously committed to accepting state IOUs as payment. California plans to issue more than $3 billion of IOUs in July.
[size=1.3em]Ms. Mills of the CBA said some banks were concerned that there aren't processes in place to accept IOUs, and also worried about fraud issues. She noted that not all banks have set a July 10 deadline, and that dozens of credit unions in the state will keep accepting IOUs.
[size=1.3em]Wells Fargo's head of community banking, Lisa Stevens, said: "We're very disappointed, as are many Californians, that California has taken the unfortunate step of issuing IOUs in lieu of payments to some businesses and individuals."
[size=1.3em]State officials said they were disappointed by the banks' decision. Garin Casaleggio, a spokesman for Mr. Chiang, said: "We don't want anybody to suffer who can't redeem them when they need cash."

tanhy

Doubts About Economy Leave Stocks Flat
A mixed report on the state of the global recession and falling oil prices weighed on stocks today, leaving major U.S. indexes mostly flat at the end of trading.
The
Dow Jones industrial average
rose 14.81, or 0.2 percent, to close at 8178.41, while the broader Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 1.47, or 0.2 percent, to 879.56. The technology-focused Nasdaq rose 1 point to 1747.17.
Wall Street had rallied in recent months as data showed the economy was deteriorating at a slower rate. Now the focus has turned to when an economic recovery will materialize and how corporations have fared in the downturn.
After the market close,
Alcoa
reported a second-quarter loss of $454 million, compared with a profit of $546 million in the comparable period a year earlier. Revenue fell 41 percent, to $4.24 billion.
The aluminum maker is the first of the 30 blue-chip companies in the Dow to report results for the quarter that ended June 30. Alcoa shares rose 5 cents, or 0.5 percent, in regular trading to close at $9.46.
S& 500 companies are expected to report a 35 percent drop in earnings for the second quarter, according to a survey from Thomson Reuters. Energy, financial and material companies are expected to report the biggest losses.
Expectations have been set so low that investors will be looking for improvements not only in corporate profitability but in revenue growth, analysts said. Firms can improve profitability by cutting their workforce and other expenses, but an increase in revenue would indicate more consumer demand, they said.
"Investors are weary and are going to be looking beyond cost cutting. People are starting to poke around the economy and see if there is anything there," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.
Stocks had initially recorded modest gains this morning after the International Monetary Fund upgraded its economic forecast for 2010. The bank raised its forecast for 2010 growth to 2.5 percent, compared with its previous forecast of 1.9 percent.

But the IMF also lowered its global economic forecast for this year. It forecast that the world economy will contract 1.4 percent, compared with the previous forecast of 1.3 percent. In the United States, economic output should stabilize in the second half of this year and gradually recover in 2010.
"The good news is that the forces pulling the economy down are decreasing in intensity," Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist, said in a statement. "The bad news is that the forces pulling the economy up are still weak."
Meanwhile, crude oil prices fell more than 4 percent, or $2.79, to settle at $60.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. After rising to more than $70 a barrel last month, prices have fallen amid concerns about the global economy. That weighed on energy stocks, including
Exxon Mobil
and
ConocoPhillips, which fell 0.5 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. Chevron rose 0.1 percent.






精彩的时候要来了，到底经济会是less bad 还是V-shaped 反弹？

tanhy

Warren Buffett says second stimulus might be needed[size=1.82em]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Legendary investor Warren Buffett said in an interview aired on Thursday unemployment could hit 11 percent and a second stimulus package might be needed as the economy struggles to recover from recession.

[size=1em]Buffett, the billionaire founder of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-A
-
News), said Americans suffered "a shock to the system" from the economic difficulties in the final quarter of last year but had started to rebound.
[size=1em]"We're not in a freefall, but we're not in a recovery either," he told ABC's "Good Morning America."
[size=1em]"We were in a freefall really in the last quarter of last year, starting in the financial markets and spreading to the economy, and we had this huge change in behavior."
[size=1em]Buffett, a supporter of President Barack Obama during last year's election campaign, said a second economic stimulus package might be needed. The Obama administration says it does not see a need for a second stimulus yet.
[size=1em]"I think a second one may well be called for. It is not a panacea. A stimulus is the right thing. You hope it doesn't get watered down," he said.
[size=1em]He likened the first $787 billion stimulus package passed by Congress to "half a tablet of Viagra and then having also a bunch of candy mixed in --- it doesn't have really quite the wallop."
[size=1em]Buffett said unemployment had "a ways to go" and he would not be surprised to see it hit 11 percent before it recovers.
[size=1em]"I'm not predicting it but no that would not surprise me," he said of the 11 percent figure.
[size=1em]"We're going to come out of this better than ever, the best days of America lie ahead but not next week or next month," he said.