舉債來投資 MEGAN 值得嗎 ? （九）

ZheHui

papre loss.
那是 loss 嗎。

這是個資金市場，每分鐘都是真金白銀的。

khokhokho

原帖由 ZheHui 于 10-5-2007 11:34 PM 发表

這招，我都唔知交了多少學費囉。
但是，你第二次 huut 可以接受，第三次 huut 就見仁見智囉，還有第四次，醬是唔是就是硬碰呢。
朋友，好好架回味下我的話。
一次唔夠，就兩次。
再次唔夠，就 ...

我也分享我想 huut genting-cd(不過最後沒去買)。
在 rm 0.120 時，本來想huut一下，我從不買ca/cb/cc等等這些股，一張也沒動過，最後我還是不買genting-cd，個性慣習吧，不到一個月間就下跌到 rm 0.065了，如果當時huut genting-cd 100粒來講，票面已虧了 50% ，又時真是要走運，貪字往往會拉人下地獄，現在TRANMIL 誰敢huut ，差不到要下跌 50%，看了誰也心動，我也會心動，但是我卻要忍，人家講rm 10.00可以進，我卻不敢進，人家講會到 rm 8.00，我也不敢進。最後看看好了，不要和錢作對，止痛藥吃太多，會變成習慣性。

chinchai

原帖由 过路客 于 10-5-2007 05:52 PM 发表


放在 putfile.com 或 rapidshare.com 都可以。不要用 megaupload 就好。



chinchai 前辈的话，似是而非，话中有话，像是随便谈天，更像是在说道理劝说。可惜不太听得出来。唉，资质不高，没缘分。

Hi, Kawan 过路客  你好!!

对! 我发的帖, 有很多别字.......

例如 1.不干心 = 不甘心. 2.不负气 = 不服气. 3.遍遍 = 偏偏, 等等等等.....

sorry!  SORRY!  对不起... 令你看不明白。。。。

中文打字, 很麻烦, 有时找不到适合, 为了要快, 没再重看, 马马虎虎, 同音就 OK 了。    哈哈!!

真的,  我是 PC 菜鸟, 临老才学。

.

Uncle 你这样会带人去荷兰的勒...开玩笑的...

看了看 Megan 的历史资料，on paper
1. last rolling 4 qtrs net profit = RM62,651,000
2. total asset per share = 6.801
3. net worth per share = 2.290
通通没用。。。。。
Net free cash per share = -4。224
Net free current asset per share = -1.245
周转大有问题，加上政府不停打击盗版，盗版商被扫肯定没钱还烂账自然多。同行都在 kao pei kao mu 了，然到它可独善其身？

tn728202

原帖由 chinchai 于 11-5-2007 10:52 AM 发表


Hi, Kawan 过路客  你好!!

对! 我发的帖, 有很多别字.......

例如 1.不干心 = 不甘心. 2.不负气 = 不服气. 3.遍遍 = 偏偏, 等等等等.....

sorry!  SORRY!  对不起... 令你看不明白。。。。

中文 ...

搜狗拼音或谷歌拼音能幫上忙

lim2000

YEO WEE SIONG 是不是已不在 Board of Director了呢?

DRAGONISM

Recent Developments

• On May 4, Megan announced that two of its 100%-owned subsidiaries

defaulted on MYR47.3 mln trade facilities and indicated both

companies would be unable to meet other repayments. This is due to

an exceptional build-up of its trade debtors, according to the

announcement. Megan will decide whether it will go into bankruptcy

within three business days.

• Based on the available information, we estimate that the group’s total

exposure to its subsidiaries amounts to MYR465 mln, comprising a

US$40 mln loan that was extended by the parent company to a

subsidiary (source: FY06 annual report), and an issue of Bai’

Bithaman Ajil Islamic Debt Securities (BaIDS) with guarantee from the

parent company (source: FY06 annual report).

We have slashed our earnings forecasts for Megan. We now forecast

Megan to record net losses of MYR101.9 mln (from net profit of

MYR54.7 mln) and MYR6.1 mln (from net profit of MYR64.0 mln) in

FY07 and FY08. Our revised forecasts are based on (i) the write-off of

the US$40 mln loan extended by the parent company, and (ii) higher

interest expenses.

We downgrade our recommendation on Megan to Strong Sell (from

Hold) after cutting our 12-month target price to MYR0.26 (from

MYR0.70), which is derived from ascribing 0.15x (from 0.25x) to our

revised FY08 BVPS estimate.

亏一亿，股价变０。２６

印度大兄之谜？
些许人在等这个印度大兄解救，有点不切实际了。
假如我要收购megan，我不会"浮头再潜水"。
(买5%股权变成大股东先，抛售0.01%，变成4.99%的小股东？)

这样不怕曝光？
还是有心曝光？
噢，是不小心曝光的。

股市名言说， 别相信内心的预测，只相信眼前的事实。
其实这话只对了一半，她已跟不上时代。
应该说，连你眼前的事实都不要信。

只要你相信这句话，你才能对种种奇怪现象释怀。

奇怪现象包括：
-大股东紧抱wa、
-yeo赔了mjc、
-che harun购附加股扑街了、
-原本megan要升到RM1的，都怪2月28号。
-印度大兄被新加坡仔坑了。


股东常年大会也是一个方向，最坏的时刻不会发生在股东大会之前，否则，董事也会在股东大会之前辞职(或缺席)。

大股东不卖wa(或母股)，站在阴谋论的角度，有两种以上的解释：
１是有价无市：
大股东找不到可以大单market order或direct order的平台，没有人愿意花1分钱买入。
(stock quote都是自己做的，俗称"market maker"，视为合法。)

２是怕露出马脚，做贼心虚：
RAM特别提到Yeo Wee Siong卖股的事，这原本不在RAM的管辖范围，职责已经越轨了。RAM无权干涉大股东卖股，由此可见，RAM似乎特别注意这事 。
再说WA。
既然卖不出，何不顺水人情？
紧抱大量wa(或母股)，陪小股东跳海是平常事。还可以博得满堂彩，做做善人。


其他现象，当然有更多的解释，不是不写，而是写了会越陷越深，变成洗脑。
要比阴谋，是可以更阴谋的，叫作『阴阴谋』。


我不是标新立异，这些知识大大们都懂的，他们不说的原因可能性有：
-误把这些grandmother story当成秘而不宣的宝贝，
-想当炒家(所以秘而不宣)，
-怕变阴谋论坛，
-小子，凭啥告诉你！？

我告诉你们这些，原因可能是：
-即使我告诉你了，你也赚不到钱，所以和我没利益冲突。庄家论再厉害，都赚不到钱的，所以这些对我来说是垃圾，送都送不走。但我我想知道有没有例外的，也许是我不会学以致用。
-我就是敌意收购megan的幕后人，劝你快快放了我的megan，不要跟钱过不去。
-噢，是不小心说出来的。

过去和现在不一样了，Yusli阿头都说了，大牛比较会出现在新兴市场，大马无法跟中国。做生意的情况现在也不一样了，虽然游资过剩但却是假繁荣，难保重组后可以起飞的。


债务还不了就是还不了，
坏帐收不回就是收不回了，
老板卖股就是卖股了，
什么期限、谈判、方案都没有用。就如此简单。

要你信的你却不信，不要你信的你却相信？是否太执着了？
不建议也不反对你"去阴谋化"，但你确定她是正确的阴谋论吗？

些许人想求认megan和tranmil的合理价，是没有用的，因为坏帐是多少%无人知晓。要赌多少%，颇具难度。
既然是不合理的混帐，怎么还能给它一个合理价呢？

8years

原帖由 lim2000 于 11-5-2007 08:05 PM 发表
YEO WEE SIONG 是不是已不在 Board of Director了呢?

那天才讲要签resolvency，怎么可能推出？？他推出谁人签？？？

Mr.Business

Megan Media hits historic low on RM49m trade loan default

Updated : 07-05-2007
Media : The Edge
Story By : Tamimi Omar

Megan Media Holdings Bhd shares closed at a historic low of 50.5 sen in active trade yesterday after its subsidiaries defaulted on RM47.36 million worth of maturing trade facilities.

At the close, there were 29.97 million shares done at prices ranging from 47 sen to 60 sen.

Megan Media said on May 4 that its subsidiaries Memory Tech Sdn Bhd (MTSB) and MJC (Singapore) Pte Ltd - were unable to meet their debt obligations by April 30, 2007 and that further impending maturities are also unlikely to be paid¨.

MTSB and MJC are experiencing financial difficulties as a result of constraints on its current cash flow from its operations which are insufficient to service and repay amounts due to lenders. Principally, this has been due to an exceptional build-up of its trade debtors¨ it said.

Megan Media had appointed a deputy chief executive officer and specialist advisory team to support an investigation into the underlying causes of the default and, if necessary, to draw up a comprehensive debt restructuring process.

Its net profit for its third quarter ended Jan 31, 2007 fell 46.77% to RM10.56 million from RM19.84 million a year ago on the back of higher finance expenses and lower product selling price. Revenue rose to RM306.15 million from RM214.94 million.

http://www.biznewsdb.com/english/newspage/newspage.asp?ID=70507145&file1=7&bulan=05&kw=wwqq

Mr.Business

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Insider Selling 101???
The SC and Bursa must look into these developments of possible insider selling. Moola has thrashed this Megan issue to death (and very well deserved too). The question is when did the directors and management came to be aware of the likelihood of default. Surely things like this cannot happen overnight. Significant events and reasonable time till event are issues which must be weighed and to ascertain the "motives, knowledge possession" and the planning to act on "inside information". More stringent guidelines must be in place on lock up periods for selling/buying by "insiders". Is selling a month or two or even three month before a very significant event considered "legal" and above board?

We can all debate on this but we must continually improve the integrity and regulatory side of the markets to rise to global best practices. This is small when you talk of Megan, I hope not to discover similar questionable selling in Transmile ... anyway too tedious to do witch hunt, Moola can do it much better than me.

Yes or no, I hope the Bursa and SC will make a statement as to whether the selling below is considered OK by present standards.
---------------------------------------

technically insolvent - total borrowings of MYR888 mln vs. total shareholders’ funds of MYR507 mln by end 3QFY07. High potential for bankruptcy.

YEO WEE SIONG (Director)
Disposed        23/02/2007         
5,573,249
        
Disposed        26/02/2007         
2,000,000
        
Disposed        28/02/2007         
1,940,997
Disposed        06/02/2007         
795,000
        
Disposed        07/02/2007         
500,100
        
Disposed        08/02/2007         
712,400
        
Disposed        09/02/2007         
292,500

DATO' DR MOHD ADAM BIN CHE HARUN (Director)
Disposed        11/04/2007         
400,500
        
Disposed        12/04/2007         
120,000
        
Disposed        17/04/2007         
148,000
Disposed        29/01/2007         
100,000
        
Disposed        30/01/2007         
570,000
        
Disposed        31/01/2007         
100,000

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/

Mr.Business

RAM把MEGAN的回教债券从A２降级到C３ (negative outlook)，简直是连降12级！

C3的等级其实就是说还好还没DEFAULT吧了，再降级就是D（DEFAULT）。

Long-Term Ratings:
C
Very high risk of default. Factors present make the Islamic instruments vulnerable to default. Timely payment of financial commitments under the Islamic instruments possible only if favorable circumstances continue.

D
Payment of financial commitments under the Islamic instruments is in arrears. Already in default.

For long-term ratings, RAM applies subscripts 1, 2 or 3 in each rating category from AA to C. The subscript 1 indicates that the issue ranks at the higher end of its generic rating category; the subscript 2 indicates a mid-ranking; and the subscript 3 indicates that the issue ranks at the lower end of its generic rating category.

http://www.ram.com.my/article.cfm?id=34&page=2

而我研究过RAM的回教债券发行者名单，最差也只到BBB3（SBC Corp) 。MEGAN的C3是名单内的第一个！而RAM所监督的回教债券，不论长期或短期债券，好象都还没DEFAULT的事情发生过。

http://www.ram.com.my//custom.cfm?name=oRatings.cfm&type=ID

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 12-5-2007 03:48 AM 编辑 ]

Mr.Business

http://www.klse.com.my/website/b ... s/LR_MBSB_Jan05.pdf
Page 325:

PART E - DECLARATION OF SOLVENCY

12.12 Declaration of solvency
A listed company must ensure that a solvency declaration is lodged with the Exchange by the directors of the listed company as follows:-
(a) where it is incorporated under the Companies Act 1965, in accordance with section 67A of the Companies Act 1965 and Part IIIA of the Companies Regulations 1966; or
(b) where it is a foreign corporation, a declaration in the form and manner prescribed under Part IIIA of the Companies Regulations 1966 subject to the necessary modifications.

12.13 Execution of solvency declaration
(1) The solvency declaration must be signed and dated by the majority of the directors.
(2) If any director, whether or not that director signed the declaration, is of the opinion that it is likely that the listed company will not remain solvent at the time of the relevant purchase(s), the director must immediately notify the board of directors of the listed company in writing and lodge a copy of such notice with the Exchange and the giving of such notice shall revoke the validity of the earlier solvency declaration.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
作者: mjchua    时间: 9-5-2007 08:21 PM

Section 257. Declaration of solvency.
ACT 125
COMPANIES ACT 1965

PART X - WINDING UP
DIVISION 3 - VOLUNTARY WINDING UP
Subdivision (1) - Introductory

Section 257. Declaration of solvency.
  (1) Where it is proposed to wind up a company voluntarily the directorsof the company, or in the case of a company having more than twodirectors, the majority of the directors may, before the date on whichthe notices of the meeting at which the resolution for the winding upof the company is to be proposed are sent out, make a writtendeclaration to the effect that they have made an inquiry into theaffairs of the company, and that at a meeting of directors have formedthe opinion that the company will be able to pay its debts in fullwithin a period not exceeding twelve months after the commencement ofthe winding up.

(2) There shall be attached to the declaration a statement of affairs of the company showing, in the prescribed form-
(a) the assets of the company, and the total amount expected to be realized therefrom;
(b) the liabilities of the company; and
(c) the estimated expenses of winding up,
made up to the latest practicable date before the making of the declaration.

(3) A declaration so made shall have no effect for the purposes of this Act unless it is-
(a) made at the meeting of directors referred to in subsection (1);
(b) made within five weeks immediately preceding the passing of the resolution for voluntary winding up; and
(c) lodged with the Registrar before the date on which thenotices of the meeting at which the resolution for the winding up ofthe company is to be proposed are sent out.

(4) A director who makes a declaration under this section withouthaving reasonable grounds for the opinion that the company will be ableto pay its debts in full within the period stated in the declarationshall be guilty of an offence against this Act.
Penalty: Imprisonment for three years or ten thousand ringgit or both.
[Am. Act A657:s.19]

(5) If the company is wound up in pursuance of a resolution forvoluntary winding up passed within a period of five weeks after themaking of the declaration, but its debts are not paid or provided forin full within the period stated in the declaration, it shall bepresumed until the contrary is shown that the director did not havereasonable grounds for his opinion.

http://www.kpdnhep.gov.my/index.cgi?action=pub&pub=akta_542

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

另外: QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS RELATING TO AMENDMENTS TO THE LISTING REQUIREMENTS OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BERHAD (“BURSA SECURITIES”) FOR THE MAIN BOARD AND SECOND BOARD (“LR”) IN RELATION TO FINANCIAL CONDITION AND LEVEL OF OPERATIONS OF LISTED ISSUERS (“AMENDMENTS”) [FAQ issued: 05/05/2006]
http://www.klse.com.my/website/bm/rules_and_regulations/listing_requirements/downloads/faq20060505_financial_condition.pdf

9. If a listed issuer, its major subsidiary or major associated company commits a default in payment pursuant to Practice Note No. 1/2001 (“PN1”), when does the listed issuer have to furnish a statement of solvency declaration to Bursa Securities?
The statement of solvency declaration duly executed by the board of directors of the listed issuer must be submitted via fax and mail to the Head of Listing Compliance Division, Group Regulations of Bursa Securities (Fax No. 03-27321123) within 3 market days from the date of the announcement on the default in payment pursuant to PN1.

10. What is the definition of “solvent” in the context of the requirement of paragraph 3.1(h) of PN1?
A listed issuer is regarded as being “solvent” if the majority directors of the listed issuer have formed the opinion that within a period not exceeding 12 months from the date of the announcement on default of payment pursuant to PN 1, the listed issuer will be able to pay all its debts in full when they fall due.

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 12-5-2007 05:29 AM 编辑 ]

Mr.Business

当我研究MEGAN给BURSA的文告时，我奇怪为何MEGAN要在09/05/2007给两个文告:

1. ANNOUNCEMENT PURSUANT TO AMENDED PRACTICE NOTE 1/2001

http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS%5Cedmsweb.nsf/LsvAllByID/48256E5D00102DF3482572D60040049E?OpenDocument

2. ANNOUNCEMENT PURSUANT TO PRACTICE NOTE 1/2001

http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS%5Cedmsweb.nsf/LsvAllByID/48256E5D00102DF3482572D6003FFD5E?OpenDocument

后来我发现， BURSA于05/05/2006进行一些上市条例的更正：
Amendments to the Listing Requirements (For Main Board and Second Board) In Relation to Financial Condition and Level of Operations
[Effective: 05/05/2006]

http://www.klse.com.my/website/bm/rules_and_regulations/listing_requirements/downloads/LRMBSB_Amend_Delistcri_issued_050506.pdf

在文件内的page 4说明：
...Other related amendedments have also been made to Practice Note No 1/2001 (";PN1";) requiring listed issuers which make announcements on defaults in payment as required in PN1 to provide certain additional disclosures as prescribed in PN1 ("Additional PN1 Announcement").

那PN1是什么条例被更正呢？这我们得看看page 18和page 19。原来BURSA增加了Paragraph 3.1(g) 和3.1(h)：

3.1 (g) where the default in payment is in respect of a subsidiary or associated company. A confirmation as to whether the subsidiary or associated company is a major subsidiary or major associated company, as the case may be;

3.1 (h) where the default in payment is in respect of a listed issuer, major subsidiary or major associated company, as the case may be, a statement as to whether the listed issuer is solvent (hereinafter referred to as the “Solvency Declaration”). In the event the listed issuer is solvent, a statement that the listed issuer undertakes to provide to the Exchange, the Solvency Declaration duly executed by the board of directors of the listed issuer, in respect of the listed issuer within 3 market days from the date of the announcement. For this purpose, a listed issuer is regarded as being “solvent” if the majority directors have formed the opinion that the listed issuer will be able to pay all its debts in full within a period not exceeding twelve months from the date of the announcement;

原来如此，BURSA增加更多条例，以要求上市公司提供更多详情，保护小股东。

PS：我写这些也没什么意思，纯粹与大家分享我的功课。

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 12-5-2007 05:41 AM 编辑 ]

wtk75

原帖由 DRAGONISM 于 11-5-2007 11:31 PM 发表

We now forecast

Megan to record net losses of MYR101.9 mln (from net profit of

MYR54.7 mln) and MYR6.1 mln (from net profit of MYR64.0 mln) in

FY07 and FY08.

We downgrade our recommendation on Megan to Strong Sell (from

Hold) after cutting our 12-month target price to MYR0.26 (from

MYR0.70), which is derived from ascribing 0.15x (from 0.25x) to our

revised FY08 BVPS estimate.

亏一亿，股价变０。２６

真不知道有什么好担心的。
一年10亿的生意额，不是任何人能够做到的。
重要的，只要持家的打理得妥当。

piao2

其实，太多人已经讨论过了Megan的今身来世，各种的理论和见解似乎对此股如今的股价没帮助。或许，我参试以下一点为megan把脉。

消费者垄断性：

以前megan生产的产品不具有上述条件。在看回megan以往的成绩单和对比海外同样性质一直亏钱的竞争者，我们知道megan是管理的不错。大家也知道，megan早已经投资了巨额在蓝光和HD DVD身上，并预计在这个季开始生产。Megan的盈亏也已有白纸黑字，大家的看法也在这里记录了，就不多谈。

投资优秀的企业是要看长远的，如今megan突发状况是巧合是无知还是阴谋，也不必下定论先。

megan走的是高科技生产业，由于科技淘汰的速度，megan不得不砸钱提升设施（黑白乌鸦？）。就这样，举债不停的megan遭到白眼。这次megan下重注在蓝光和HD DVD，对于其他还没准备好的同行，又是怎么看待呢？如果只有megan能够大量生产，这算不算是垄断呢？或者是暂时垄断？

用这样的身家和风险来追求上述的垄断，是果断还是铤而走险呢？我不在这行，无法评价。我只知道一路来megan财务状况一点也不保守（看得让人不断摇头），管理人员很蛇，无法自由根据通货膨胀进行价格调整，利润看得到拿不到（当了银行大儿子）。

这次由于科技转换而使得megan的利润高低起伏，在加上子公司无法还债的不利消息，导致大众失去信心，甚至S&把megan的合理价降至23仙。而这一切恰恰好发生在大马股市最高点时候，不是经济萧条时，megan（股价）还能翻身吗？

格雷厄姆晚年时说过，他相信市场是由两类人构成的：一种以长期投资为中心，因此公司的股价最终能反映其内在价值；另一种就像赌场，人们以短期价格起伏为赌注。


XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Megan的董事们已签下了declaration，如果无法还债，可要面对3年监狱之灾的可能性。

换个角度，如果你是董事，你会签吗？为何你要签？


[ 本帖最后由 piao2 于 12-5-2007 04:43 PM 编辑 ]

ZheHui

如不可避免時，就會簽。
失信案，平常的很，扣了假期都只是坐兩年。
問題就是不知他拿了幾多利益，所以算不到他坐一年有幾多 income 。
以前，亞都啦 洪，在裡面還可以睡水床添。

mjchua

原帖由 ZheHui 于 12-5-2007 05:13 PM 发表
如不可避免時，就會簽。
失信案，平常的很，扣了假期都只是坐兩年。
問題就是不知他拿了幾多利益，所以算不到他坐一年有幾多 income 。
以前，亞都啦 洪，在裡面還可以睡水床添。

他們大可以不簽, 直接讓公司進 PN17 一年後除牌

小时候胖不是胖

原帖由 piao2 于 12-5-2007 04:39 PM 发表
其实，太多人已经讨论过了Megan的今身来世，各种的理论和见解似乎对此股如今的股价没帮助。或许，我参试以下一点为megan把脉。

消费者垄断性：

以前megan生产的产品不具有上述条件。在看回megan以往的成绩 ...

你功课做不够，megan那里有hd-dvd?

假如欠钱要坐牢，过去那些人不就要死刑？法官只会讲，yeo的行为良好，和bursa高度配合，和股东交代明白，连罚款都不用了。法律公正？过去有什么人签了就坐牢的？