跟踪欧美选秀 观察货币动态

kitnina

明天股市跌，就大手进美元。
明天股市升，就大手进日元。

CurryFishHead

k2levin 发表于 12-12-2013 08:06 PM
美女和货币 。。 真有意思 。。

还是你比较厉害！

俱怀逸兴

2013 12 13
欧元兑美元确认1.3777

EUR/USD confirmed 1.3777

由于欧元的持续下跌，我们明确需要欧洲央行发布更稳健的信息。”
-法国兴业银行（根据彭博社）

货币对展望
昨天货币对未能通过关键阻力位位于1.3777，某些周图技术指标转为空头，意味着可能反弹正在减少。最近的支撑在1.3711，但不太可能引发强劲的上升势头，我们宁愿关注100日和200日移动平均线作为中期目标。

交易者情绪
尽管货币对的趋势发生了转变但是欧元兑美元的情绪完全没有变化-41 %的仓位做多而大多数（59%）都是做空。关于订单，45%是买入而55%卖出欧元兑美元。
"For the euro to take a sustained hit to the downside we definitely need the ECB to really move to a more dovish message."
- Societe Generale SA (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
Being that yesterday the currency pair failed to pass through the key resistance at 1.3777, some of the weekly technical indicators turned bearish, meaning that a possibility of a rally is currently decreasing. The nearest support is at 1.3711, but it is unlikely to reignite strong upward momentum, instead we would rather focus on the 100 and 200-day moving averages as the medium-term targets.

Traders' Sentiment
Despite a change in the pair's trend the sentiment of the market towards EUR/USD remains perfectly unchanged—41% of open positions are long and the majority (59%) of them are short. Concerning the orders, 45% are to buy and 55% are to sell the Euro against the U.S. Dollar.

俱怀逸兴

2013 12 13
美元兑日元冲击5月高点  

USD/JPY hits May high

我在想许多人都认为美元将在年内超过104，但它可能很难达到这一水平。”
- Masashi Murata,布朗兄弟哈里曼（根据路透社）

货币对展望
美元兑日元终于抵达了5月高点，但现在价格可能很难穿过在月第一阻力位104.12和103.74之间的供给区域。因此，非常有可能在图上出现长下影线，即使日图和月图的研究此刻强烈看涨。自十一月初的第一个和主要防御线形成的上升趋势线一直引导货币对上涨。

交易者情绪
现在，多头和空头的市场参与者之间的分布是57%到43%，这意味着大多数的交易者认为美元相对于日元甚至会进一步升值。对于订单，买入的份额从83%上升到高达89%。
"I think many think the dollar will go over 104 within this year, but it might have difficulty reaching that level."
- Masashi Murata, Brown Brothers Harriman (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
USD/JPY has finally arrived at the May high, but now it may be difficult for the price to cross the supply area between the monthly R1 at 104.12 and 103.74. Accordingly, there is a high possibility of the downside spikes appearing on the chart, even though daily and monthly studies are strongly bullish at the moment. The rising trend-line that has been guiding the pair north since the beginning of November is the first and main defence line.

Traders' Sentiment
Right now the distribution between the bullish and bearish market participants is 57% to 43%, meaning most of the traders foresee further appreciation of the U.S. Dollar relative to the Japanese Yen. As for the orders, the share of buy ones surged from 83% up to whopping 89%.

俱怀逸兴

2013 12 16
美元兑日元从5月高点回撤

货币对展望
美元兑日元有一个重大的风险，可能将无法保持强势，当面对由5月高点所代表的阻力位时。这是一个可能的情况，加速上升趋势的支撑在103.11应该会被突破。然后，美元预期将会下降穿过最近的支撑在102.50/30和101.34/17跌至100.86/54-9月高点和月枢轴点。

交易者情绪
看涨的市场参与者相对于空头保持优势。前者占58%的市场份额，后者的部分是42%。关于订单，绝对多数（84%）都是买入美元兑日元。

俱怀逸兴

2013 12 16
欧元兑美元受到1.3711/1.3684的巩固

货币对展望
一旦货币对一步步走低至支持位1.3711/1.3684，大多数日图技标将会转强。因此，仍然有机会，欧元兑美元将能够重新走向25日高点。然而，汇率继续从那里进一步上升是极不可能的，货币对价格的长期前景依然看跌。

交易者情绪
SWFX交易者的情绪偏向消极，欧元兑美元开仓部位60%是做空的-与星期五的59%相比只有轻微的变化。同时，买入和卖出订单之间的分布有一个显着的转变。前者的份额由45%上升了六个百分点，从而现在他们构成了市场的主体。

俱怀逸兴

技术分析：
2013.12.17
英镑兑美元的上涨受到1.6343/36的阻挡

GBP/USD's surge obstructed by 1.6343/36


我们看到了某些货币的一些势头，如美元兑日元，欧元，英镑，似乎在此刻已经消失，可能在一定程度上进入了年终伴随着较少的流动性和获利套现，这可能会限制波动。”
-法国农业信贷银行（基于CNBC）

货币对展望
昨天英镑兑美元上涨超越1.6343/36的尝试被证明是不成功的，但该货币对仍愿意向上移动，处于走向2011年高点1.6745 / 35的途中。然而，它将必须克服一月高点1.6390和1.6554/46，两者都是强大的阻力区。如果支持在1.6219/04和1.6179/39削弱了下跌走势，则价格应该会恢复上涨。

交易者情绪
虽然欧元兑美元的交易者都不愿意改变自己的仓位，英镑兑美元多头部位，虽然仍相对较小，但是实质上已经增加，只在最近的24小时从25%上涨到36%。说到订单，其中55%是买入而45%英镑。
Some of the momentum that we saw in some currencies, like dollar/yen, euro, sterling, it seems to have faded at the moment, which could be partly going into year-end with less liquidity and some profit-taking, which could be limiting moves."
- Credit Agricole (based on CNBC)
Pair's Outlook
Yesterday's attempt of GBP/USD to rise beyond 1.6343/36 turned out to be unsuccessful, but the currency pair still appears to be willing to move north, en route to the 2011 high at 1.6745/35. However, it will then have to overcome the January high at 1.6390 and 1.6554/46, both of which are formidable resistance areas. In case of weakness the supports at 1.6219/04 and 1.6179/39 should aid the price in resuming the rally.

Traders' Sentiment
While the traders in EUR/USD are reluctant to change their positioning, the portion of bulls in GBP/USD, even though still relatively small, has substantially increased, from 25% to 36% only within the last 24 hours. Speaking of orders, 55% of them are to buy and 45% are to sell the Sterling.

俱怀逸兴

2013.12.17
美元兑日元面临下跌风险

USD/JPY faces downside risks

收紧的最初反应可能是买入美元。美元兑日圆可能爬上最近的高点在政策收紧公布之后。”
-东京三菱UFJ银行有限公司-（根据彭博社）

货币对展望
介于美元兑日元并未收盘在上升支撑线以下，我们不能排除一种可能的走势，将会穿透阻力位103.83 / 74。然后货币对将超越104.12/07为了达到104.92/87。然而，如果趋势线被打破，这很可能导致下跌至100.86/54。

交易者情绪
多头和空头的数量之间的差距自上次报告以来略有扩大，前者的份额是59%，后者占了41%的市场份额。同时美元获得强劲支撑-83 %的订单将买入它对日元。
The initial reaction to a taper will probably be dollar buying. Dollar-yen may climb above its recent high after a taper announcement."
- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
Being that USD/JPY has not yet closed beneath the rising support line, we should not rule out a possibility of an up-move, which will pierce through the resistance at 103.83/74. Then the currency pair will have to surpass only 104.12/07 in order to reach 104.92/87. However, if the trend-line is violated, this may potentially lead to losses down to 100.86/54.

Traders' Sentiment
The gap between the amounts of bulls and bears has slightly widened since the previous report, as the share of the former is now 59%, while the latter are taking up 41% of the market. At the same time there is strong support for the U.S. Dollar—83% of orders are set to purchase it against the Japanese Yen.

俱怀逸兴

俱怀逸兴

2013.12.18
欧元兑美元收盘于1.3831/00内

EUR/USD closes in on 1.3831/00

“市场现在似乎对于美联储是否将会收紧意见不一致。但这种情况比那更复杂，他们另一程度上可以在提出指导等措施，在量化宽松政策上放上参数以计量被发觉的逐渐收紧的强硬元素。”
-汇丰银行（根据彭博社）

货币对展望
欧元兑美元继续缓慢攀升，尽管它是通过最近的同时是最强的一个阻力在1.3831 / 00是极不可能的。因此我们预计货币对在可预见的未来将会扭转，开始朝向支持位走去，如在1.3520/01，该位置月枢轴点与200天均线合并。

交易者情绪
SWFX市场参与者的情绪仍然悲观-60 %的仓位是做空的，即使美元人气总体水平正在下降。同时，买入订单的份额从51%增加到54%。
"The market seems to be divided on whether the Fed will taper now. But it's more complicated than that. There're other measures they can take in terms of forward guidance, putting on parameters on QE to counter the perceived hawkish elements of tapering."
- HSBC (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
EUR/USD continues to slowly grind higher, even though it is highly unlikely to pass through the nearest and at the same time one of the strongest resistances at 1.3831/00. Therefore we expect the currency pair to turn around in the foreseeable future and start targeting supports, such as the one at 1.3520/01, where the monthly pivot point merges with the 200-day SMA.

Traders' Sentiment
The sentiment of the SWFX market participants remains moderately bearish—60% of open positions are short, even though the overall level of the U.S. Dollar's of popularity is currently on the decline. Meanwhile, the share of buy orders increased from 51% to 54%.

俱怀逸兴

2013.12.18

美元兑日元下跌落于上升趋势下方

“数据证实了日本出口情况的持续复苏，反映了全球经济在逐步复苏。这是一个积极的表现，虽然走势不太可能加速全球经济复苏，仍然是缓慢的。”

-农林研究所（基于CNBC）

货币对展望

虽然上升趋势线引起了一次上涨走势，但是未能保持完整，抛售没有延伸超出支持在102.66/30，并且已经收回了昨天所有的损失。然而，有许多风险偏向下行，前景将会仍然负面，除非货币对在最近的将来上涨至阻力位103.11以上。

交易者情绪

多头和空头头寸份额之间的差异增大。赌美元升值的百分比从59%上涨到61%。在此期间买入（84%）和卖出（16%）订单之间的比率几乎是不变的。

Thedata confirmed a continued pickup in Japan's exports reflecting agradual recovery in global economy. It was a positive readingalthough the pace is unlikely to accelerate as global recoveryremains tepid."
- Norinchukin Research Institute (based onCNBC)

Pair'sOutlook

Althoughthe rising trend-line that secured an up-move failed to stay intact,the sell-off did not extend beyond the support at 102.66/30 andalready all of the yesterday's losses have been erased. However, therisks are now skewed to the downside, and the outlook will remainnegative unless the currency pair rises above the resistance at103.11 in the nearest future.

Traders'Sentiment

Thedifference between the amounts of long and short positions keeps onincreasing. The percentage of bets on the U.S. Dollar's appreciationadvanced from 59% to 61%. The ratio between the buy (84%) and sell(16%) orders, in the meantime, is almost unchanged.

俱怀逸兴

2013.12.9
欧元兑美元陡然下跌

Dukascopy Bank SA
​“仍需解决一些困难，但最终会对美元有利。事实上，美联储实施收紧显示它对于复苏步伐自信，金融市场在这个时间可以承受适度缩减。”
- Foreign Exchange Inc.（根据彭博社）

货币对展望
虽然欧元兑美元看涨的形势比最初预期的时间更长，但是货币对最终下跌通过最近的支持，并进一步下降。下一个重要目标应该是1.3522/01，该位置月枢轴点受到100天均线的巩固。同时，1.3711/1.3677（月第一阻力位和2月高点）现在可以作为一个顶部。

交易者情绪
尽管欧洲单一货币的价格大幅度的变化，但是SWFX市场参与者的定位并没有显着的变化。多头份额占39%（40%昨天）而空头的占有率是61%。在另一方面，买入订单的百分比，由54%上升到64%。

俱怀逸兴

2013.12.19

美元兑日元上跳超过103.74

© Dukascopy Bank SA
“我们已经把104.70，105作为目标位，且把这样的走势推动到了104以上，这种情况是有一点意外。”
- State Street Global Markets（根据CNBC）

货币对展望
由于货币对迅速返回上升趋势之上，则美元兑日元的前景是保持积极的，由日图和月图的技术研究也表明这一情况。此外，昨日的飙升导致汇价突破了重要的阻力水平103.74。因此，将只有一个主要的障碍在104.12/04，在现货价格和104.92/87之间。

交易者情绪
昨天的事件后，美元兑日元多头（56%）和空头（44%）之间的差距再次缩小，意味着此刻的情绪是中性的。同时，货币对上已经在历史高位的买入订单甚至增长的更多，达89%。

俱怀逸兴

2013.12.19

加元/日元4小时图：上升楔形

加元/日元自11月初以来，一直在回升走高；该对的一个攀升表现在上升楔形模式界限内，模式目前长164棒长。当该对在两条逐渐汇聚线间浮动时，两次试图达到5月高位；最近一次向此峰值的冲击，导致该对退落至50棒SMA，目前该对正在此处浮动。然而，加元/日元可能会返回至纪录高位，鉴于市场强烈的看涨情绪；77.78%的交易者持有该对头仓。

俱怀逸兴

2013.12.20
欧元兑美元挑战1.3631/09

“我们本周一直在做空欧元兑美元，货币对将持续下跌看到1.32，在2014年初。”
-法国巴黎银行（根据彭博社）

货币对展望
欧元兑美元承受强大的抛售压力推动持续走低，在测试主要下跌趋势线1.3831 / 00后。目前的货币对准备攻击支持位1.3631/09，由周第二支持位和55天均线构成，但不太可能启动一次明显的看涨校正，直到100天均线在1.3530/00被触及之前。

交易者情绪
目前，大多数的交易者，即他们中的60%，预期欧元相对于美元进一步贬值。虽然之间的比率是基本保持不变的，相比以前的报告，买入订单的份额从64%下降到52%。

俱怀逸兴

2013.12.20
美元兑日元突破104.12/07

“日元有一点疲弱，但是今天的动作是非常小的，在海外市场，已经有很多人在下一周的假期之前停止了交易。”
-三井住友信托银行（基于CNBC）

货币对展望
美元兑日元首先犹犹豫豫的上升到了周和月第一阻力位水平，但现在只有不到80点，以去到另一个重要的里程碑，即2008年一月低点。反弹达到这个级别将有望获得短暂的缓和，，在在此期间价格应该不会下降至远低于103.74，以保持乐观前景的时效性。

交易者情绪
美元兑日元的SWFX市场参与者的情绪依然稳定-56 %的仓位受益于上涨而44%预测美元将会走软。然而订单一边87%是买入美元兑日元。

俱怀逸兴

2013/12/23 欧元兑美元回撤

EUR/USD pulls back


​“经过了不稳定的几周，上周来到了联邦公开市场委员会通告发布前夕，市场目前大部分持观望态度。”
-RBC（根据路透社）

货币对展望
经过对于1.3784的测试之后汇价遭受了一次重大抛售，货币对现在正经历轻度看涨校正，应该不会大幅延伸超越阻力1.3711 / 1.3689。该供应区域主要是由二月高点和月第一阻力位构成，预计会阻止欧元兑美元的走势并随后将汇价送至100天均线和月枢轴点在1.3531/01。

交易者情绪
SWFX市场参与者对于欧元兑美元的情绪仍然看跌，空头头寸的份额（61%）略超过多头20%。同样的，买入订单相比于卖出一边（58%）处于劣势，在现场。
"After such a volatile couple of weeks which came to a head with the FOMC announcement last week, markets are very much sidelined at the moment."
- RBC (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
Following a massive sell-off after a test of 1.3784 the currency pair is undergoing a shallow bullish correction that should not extend far beyond the resistance at 1.3711/1.3689. This supply area is mainly formed by the February high and the monthly R1 and is expected to halt EUR/USD and subsequently send it towards the 100-day SMA and the monthly pivot point at 1.3531/01.

Traders' Sentiment
The sentiment of the SWFX market participants remains moderately bearish with respect to EUR/USD, with the share of short positions (61%) exceeding the longs by slightly more than 20%. Similarly, the buy orders are at a disadvantage compared to the sell ones (58%) around the spot.

俱怀逸兴

2013/12/23  美元兑日元下落至104.12以下

USD/JPY dives beneath 104.12


“美元兑日元投机性获利潜力依然可观，尽管已经达到又一个新高，日元疲软的趋势将要持续到新的一年。”
-法国农业信贷银行（根据彭博社）

货币对展望
美元兑日元已经获得了一个坚实的立足点在五月高点之上，因而将会进一步推进。对于上涨的下一个严重障碍是在104.94/92，周第一阻力位结合2008年一月低点。而在最近的将来，这种阻力可能会阻止价格自由移动，月度指标表明，这不会影响长期乐观前景。

交易者情绪
虽然开仓头寸部分目前低于10天的平均水平，但是他们继续占据着最大的市场，即56%。同时，买入和卖出订单的差距在50点以内缩小了，100点以内的趋势是完全相反的。
While the potential for speculative dollar-yen profit taking remains substantial given yet another new high, the underlying trend of yen weakness should persist into the New Year."
- Credit Agricole (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
USD/JPY has gained a solid foothold above the May high and is therefore set to advance further. The next serious obstacle for the rally is at 104.94/92, where the weekly R1 merges with the 2008 January low. And while in the nearest future this resistance may not let the price to move freely, the monthly indicators suggest this will not affect the long-term bullish prospects.

Traders' Sentiment
Although the portion of open long positions is currently below the 10-day average, they continue to take up the largest part of the market, namely 56% of it. In the meantime, while the difference between the buy and sell orders within 50 pips from the spot narrows, within 100 pips the tendency is completely opposite.

俱怀逸兴

2013.12.26

美元兑日元正迅速逼近105.04/104.92

“美元兑日元有望在2013年底砰的一声上涨。”
-法国农业信贷银行（基于CNBC）

货币对展望
大多数主要货币对目前的活跃程度是很低的，但是美元兑日元正迅速闭合现价和阻力位105.04/104.92之间的缺口。然而，这个水平可能会拖延价格的前进，并迫使它回到加速上升趋势线，和有可能会下跌到103.74/72。如果产生一个更深的回调，则直到触及100.86/62之前不太可能停止。

交易者情绪
交易员们越来越不相信美元会比日元做的更好-多头和空头之间的差距继续缩小，此刻是10%，意味着对于美元兑日元的情绪是中性的。同样的，买入订单的份额虽然依然可观，但也在下降。
"Dollar-yen is on track to end 2013 with a bang."
- Credit Agricole (based on CNBC)

Pair's Outlook
While the activity in most of the major currency pairs is currently sluggish, USD/JPY is quickly closing the gap between the spot and the resistance at 105.04/104.92. However, this level may delay further advancement of the price by throwing it back to the accelerated up-trend support, specifically down to 103.74/72. A deeper retracement is unlikely to stop until 100.86/62.

Traders' Sentiment
The traders are getting less and less convinced that the U.S. Dollar retains capacity to outperform the Japanese Yen—the gap between the bulls and bears continues to narrow and at the moment is 10%, meaning the sentiment towards USD/JPY is neutral. Similarly, the share of buy orders, while still substantial, is also on the decline.

俱怀逸兴

2013.12.26
欧元兑美元停留在1.3711/04附近

EUR/USD stays in vicinity of 1.3711/04


​“我们可能会看到随着美国失业率数据的移动，市场上的纽约交易者将开始从假期回归。货币交易商今天将持续关注股价波动。”
-瑞穗证券股份有限（根据彭博社）

货币对展望
风险目前严重偏向下行，鉴于欧元兑美元刚好正交易在一个坚实的阻力位下方。这个补给区域主要由月第一阻力位和二月高点构成，但也包括周枢轴点和20天均线。然而，目前的货币对仍保持单边波动-它被吸引向1.3711/04而拒绝前往支持位1.3609/1.3597。

交易者情绪
欧元兑美元看跌情绪继续加强-空头相对于多头的优势已经增加到了24%，略高于10天平均的21%的。对于订单，买入和卖出之间的分布保持不变。
"We may see the U.S. jobless claims data move the market as traders in New York start to come back from holiday. Currency traders will keep an eye on stock moves today."
- Mizuho Securities Co. (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
The risks are presently heavily skewed to the downside, given that EUR/USD is trading just beneath the tough resistance. This supply area is mainly formed by the monthly R1 and February high, but also contains the weekly PP and the 20-day SMA. Nevertheless, at the moment the currency pair remains side-lined—it gravitates towards 1.3711/04 and is refusing to head to the support at 1.3609/1.3597.

Traders' Sentiment
The bearish towards EUR/USD sentiment carries on strengthening—the advantage of shorts compared to long has already increased to 24%, which is slightly above the 10-day average of 21%. As for the orders, the distribution between the buy and sell ones remains largely unchanged.