分析San Miguel吃Esso大宗的票

henrytanck

回复  hauzi302


    最后十五分钟看到起到4.10,来不及keying ,4.080卖了，
    小赚两百多元。 ...
lyehee18 发表于 19-8-2011 05:48 PM

哈哈Ah Chong大哥，原来你也有玩ESSO。。。。

hauzi302

回复  hauzi302


    最后十五分钟看到起到4.10,来不及keying ,4.080卖了，
    小赚两百多元。 ...
lyehee18 发表于 19-8-2011 05:48 PM

恭喜啊
扣鸟水钱赚200多？

股王再世

回复  hauzi302


    最后十五分钟看到起到4.10,来不及keying ,4.080卖了，
    小赚两百多元。 ...
lyehee18 发表于 19-8-2011 05:48 PM

又有散戶的票給他們騙到手了。。。你本來可以賺兩千的，而不是兩百。

RM3.50 + RM1.38 = RM4.88 per share for the 65% majority shares

Vincent1818

小心哦。。。一个报告这样写：
Although San Miguel paid RM3.50 per share for the Esso Malaysia, it has also acquired net debt of RM4.538 per share.  Therefore, effectively, the cost of acquiring Esso Malaysia by San Miguel is $8.038 per share. This is something which many minority shareholders have failed to grasp for the longest time. Even so, net-net, it is just buying at 1.06x book. Minority shareholders would probably have to hold on for a longer time now and hope that San Miguel does a better job.

flyjurassicpark

谢谢lz分享。
靠消息来买的散户，8成烧到手，然后贱价卖掉。
SM 在偷笑。

lyehee18

回复 21# henrytanck


    赚点旅费咯

lyehee18

回复 22# hauzi302


    幸运罢了 ,昨天买进的genting就没有奖好运，
    我看是要拿票了

hauzi302

回复  hauzi302


    幸运罢了 ,昨天买进的genting就没有奖好运，
    我看是要拿票了
lyehee18 发表于 20-8-2011 10:51 AM

事实上若以投机来讲，你如果hold着的话，股价还能上到RM4.20

讲到完当然还是那句，买卖自负

lyehee18

回复 28# hauzi302


    看明天还有没有便宜的票买，这两天美国吃了泻药。

askii

谢谢lz分享。。。。但现在股市翻来覆去，握长线会比较好？？

hauzi302

谢谢lz分享。。。。但现在股市翻来覆去，握长线会比较好？？
askii 发表于 20-8-2011 12:09 PM

现在股市波动幅度大，如果自己手中握着的股属于优质股，连年利润丰厚，公司对待股东好（有派利息）的，则可继续持有。

如果手中无票，可以选择找出一些被价值被严重低估的股，选一个好的买入时机买入。

william_chen

冷眼劝散户只买五星级股票，不是没有理由的。很多人喜欢看新闻後买股，不亏才怪。之前的RHBCAP也是这样，十块多也有人去买。历史不断重演，亏损者前扑后继。

streamleaf

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/4/9/business/11066361&sec=business

Shareholders told to exercise rights wisely
Comment by Rita Benoy Bushon


THE end of March saw the completion of ExxonMobil International Holdings Inc's disposal of its 65% stake in Esso Malaysia Bhd to San Miguel Corp. What now remains is San Miguel's obligation of extending a mandatory takeover offer (MGO) for the remaining 35% (or 94.50 million shares) of Esso to minority shareholders.

Here is where the issue becomes a little thorny.

We feel that the stated offer price of RM3.59 for each Esso share is neither fair nor reasonable to minority shareholders, and offers them insufficient recompense.

Here are our reasons:

In valuation terms, the offer values Esso at a mere 6.3 times earnings, which is a significant (and unfair) discount to its other listed peers. For example, its much larger rival, Petronas Dagangan Bhd, trades at 21.5 times earnings, while the entire market trades at around 17 times earnings.

Granted, Petronas Dagangan is a much heavier stock (RM18bil in market capitalisation compared with Esso's RM964mil) and hence a much more liquid stock. And yes, with a free float of just 94.5 million shares there has not been much liquidity.

But is this discount fair? Doubling the valuation to 13 times earnings will still see Esso trade at a more-justifiable 30% discount to Petronas Dagangan, which would then value Esso at around RM7.20-per-share.

Among the defences being cited of the current offer price are the heavy capex needs San Miguel will have to incur in the coming months and years to build out the business. As we know, San Miguel is buying not just the listed Esso Malaysia entity, but also two unlisted companies ExxonMobil Borneo Sdn Bhd from ExxonMobil, and ExxonMobil Malaysia Sdn Bhd from Mobil International Petroleum Corp, for a total of US$404mil.

Consequently, San Miguel has said much of the capex spending would finance an upgrade of the Port Dickson refinery so that it can make use of a wider variety of crudes and produce higher-value products. Conceivably, there would also be significant expenditure on a number of the 560 retail stations Exxon owns in Malaysia, and perhaps some upgrading work on the seven fuel distribution terminals soon to be under its possession as well.

Our response to the issue of capex spend is this: there are a multitude of options to raise this necessary funding . It need not solely come from the majority shareholder. Spending to upgrade existing infrastructure, plants and machinery is also earnings accretive, and positive for the long-term health of the company.

As San Miguel's chief operating officer Ramon S. Ang has said, Esso is attractive “given that there is plenty of room to move up the value chain by upgrading refinery capabilities.” Hence, spending on the future of the business is hardly a reason to depress the buyout price.

We note that chairman and executive director Hugh Thompson has resigned from his posts following ExxonMobil's exit. And that Ang, who is the chairman and chief executive officer of (the buying entity) Petron Corp, has been appointed as executive director,

I would urge the independent directors on the board, whom we understand from the recent AGM, were not involved nor aware of the sale which was done between shareholders, to act in the best interests of the minority shareholders.

More so, since Esso has said it is not seeking other takeover offers.

I should also like to highlight another point raised by the offerors: that shares of Esso Malaysia had been trading in the RM2.40-RM3 range as recently as 2010, and that its offer is hence acceptable on that basis. However, I should like to point out that this is a direct consequence of its low free float and market value, which has artificially depressed its share value.

For the MGO, only 35% of the company owners who are fragmented minorities can make a decision to give in their shares in this offer as San Miguel already owns 65% of the shares. Having said that, there could some shareholders from this highly fragmented segment whose entry price is sufficiently low to see value in this current offer.

In order to de-list the company, San Miguel needs to hold 90% of the total paid-up capital, thus an acceptance levels of 25% from these minorities will be needed which may not be easy if the minorities are unhappy as regards the offer price.

And in order for San Miguel to compulsorily acquire the rest of the shares it does not already own, it requires a much higher threshold of acceptance which is 90% of the 35% that it does not own which totals to 96.5% of paid-up capital. This draconian acquisition, whether you like it or not, will go through only if we minorities allow it.

And so exercise you rights wisely.

Rita Benoy Bushon is chief executive officer of Minority Shareholder Watchdog Group