回顾: 17-3-2001，klse.8k 大师发表的文章

magnumao

跪謝虎大和過大的提點

小小提點,令人受用無窮....

江百虎

原帖由 xiye 于 13-11-2008 10:51 AM 发表
KLSE.8K前辈是老娘的启蒙导师，虽然klse.8k前辈不知道。像现在酱的市场，可以顺便读一读前辈的另２篇文章：

a. 30年 前 的5 张 云 顶 ， 今 天 的100 万
b. 21年 前 的 18张 大 众 银 行 ， 今 天 的 一 百 万
...

蛮自慰一下下的。。。

要知道 KLCI 有 １０００ 多家上市公司。。。

这 ２ 家几十年前买了放着就可以成为百万富人的公司也不过是占了 KLCI 的０。２％ 而已。。。

就是说投资人要有过人的慧眼才会有 ０。２％ 的机会成为百万富翁啊。。。

赫赫。。。





[ 本帖最后由 江百虎 于 13-11-2008 11:53 AM 编辑 ]

2750一号

原帖由 过路客 于 13-11-2008 11:00 AM 发表
历史一定重复，经济一定循环。

klse.8k 前辈的话一定应验。虎兄的提点一定发生。

问题是何时？




虽然每个人都提倡基本价值投资 ...

过路客，
前辈指的是，成交额。
还有，看三个月的平均数。

目前三个月的平均成交量还是维持在9.0亿令吉的水平，这是偏高的

当股市跌到谷底的时候，成交量可能是3.0亿

希望，可以点醒众生。。。。

ZheHui

理論就算有多好，最後還是看你本身的方法夠不夠好。

p/s 智慧的說，共勉之。

Mr.Business

我觉得不用看交易量我都可以大胆直言熊市还没结束，甚至可以说半场都还未到，请再耐心等等吧。PS: 顺便看看Intel的新闻。。。

3rd UPDATE: Intel Cuts 4Q View; Stock At 12-Year Low
Dow Jones
November 12, 2008: 07:41 PM EST

(Updates with additional analyst's comment on the Intel news's impact on the broader IT sector.)

Semiconductor giant Intel Corp. (INTC) slashed its fourth-quarter revenue view by as much as 20% because of "significantly weaker-than-expected demand," sending shares of the tech bellwether to 12-year lows and further rocking an already roiled stock market.

The dramatic cut, less than a month after providing the original guidance, underscores the uncertainty in the global economy and shows how violently the downturn is affecting the world's biggest companies - as Intel suggested nothing was immune. Analysts said they expected the lowered guidance to reverberate across the I.T. sector.

"Revenue is being affected by significantly weaker-than-expected demand in all geographies and market segments," Intel wrote in its press release.

To some, Intel was simply being too optimistic with its previous guidance. Mike Splinter, chief executive of semiconductor equipment maker Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), said he wasn't surprised by Intel's guidance revisions as the rest of the industry already has been affected by the weakening economy.

"I've been talking to all of our customers, and they were the only customer that was still relatively bullish," he said in an interview following the company's earnings conference call.

An Intel spokesman said the company has experienced "a pretty rapid decline" in its business. He said Intel is ordering a hiring freeze and cutting other discretionary spending, but has no plans to reduce its work force.

Intel's projection portends a grim environment in what is traditionally the biggest quarter for electronic sales. The comments mirror those of players such as Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM), the biggest supplier of chips for cellphones.

"It brings sentiment down for tech in general, because what Intel has done today is only talk about the fourth quarter," said Think Panmure chip analyst Vijay Rakesh. Based on Intel's cuts, he said, "It's safe to assume" Wall Street will be cutting earnings estimates in the sector by 20% to 25% for 2009.

"I think they were expecting the consumer to return in December, but it's too late in the quarter to be betting on that now," he said.

Intel shares fell as low as $12.36 in after-hours trading, its lowest point since September 1996, before rebounding recently to $12.60, down 6.8% from the 4 p.m. EST close. Before that, the stock already was down 49% in 2008, compared to the nearly 42% drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

For the fourth quarter, Intel now sees revenue between $8.7 billion and $9.3 billion, down from its October view of $10.1 billion to $10.9 billion and below the average analyst estimate of $10.36 billion. The lowered view provides the most unpleasant picture so far for demand of tech products in the traditionally busy fourth quarter.

As a result, the impact of Intel's warning was felt throughout the tech world and the overall stock market. Many tech giants began selling off in late trading - such as Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), down 2.7%; Apple Inc. (AAPL), 3%; Dell Inc. (DELL), 3%; and Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ), 2.1% - as well as chip rivals Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), down 8.5%, and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), off 2.7%.

Tech analysts said the impact of Intel's lowered guidance would have implications for the broader I.T. sector.

"It looks like PC shipments are pretty slow, and this will create ripples across the supply chain," said Katherine Egbert, an analyst with Jefferies & Co.

Analysts said software companies likely to be affected include Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), and the antivirus software makers such as Symantec Corp. (SYMC) and McAfee Inc. (MFE). After closing down 4.2% in a lower overall tech market, Microsoft was changing hands down 2% in after-hours trading. Another analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "This is going to resonate throughout the food chain," although the analyst added that with the tech companies already sustaining heavy share price losses, a lot of bad news was already being discounted.

In addition, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell on the warning.

Intel also lowered its gross-margin expectations to 55% from 59%, plus or minus a couple of points, amid the revenue drop and related charges. The company added that the quarter's spending will be cut by $100 million to $2.8 billion, a decrease likely to weigh on the stocks of semiconductor equipment makers.

Intel, after a few stumbles several years ago, has been riding one of its strongest product lineups in years, including an ultra-small chip called Atom for new low-end laptops, known as netbooks.

Last month, the company reported its third-quarter net income grew 12% but said future results were hard to predict and could "differ materially from expectations."

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfe ... 000870_FORTUNE5.htm

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 13-11-2008 01:02 PM 编辑 ]

ZeroYap

金融战争已经开始，虽然看不见硝烟！

“林肯的死是基督徒世界的重大损失。美国可能没人能够沿着他伟大的足迹前
行，而银行家们将会重新掌握那些富有的人。我担心外国银行家以他们高超和残
酷的手腕会最终得到美国的富饶，然后用它来系统地腐蚀现代文明。”
——德国首相俾斯麦

注：我不是基督徒。

[ 本帖最后由 ZeroYap 于 13-11-2008 02:02 PM 编辑 ]

ZeroYap

在看看历史吧。。。。

从1864 年开始，银行家们可以世世代代享用国债利息这一美餐。仅仅是由于政府
直接发行货币还是zf 发行债券而银行发行货币这一点看似不起眼的差别，就造
成了人类历史上最大的不公平。人民被迫向银行家间接缴税，为了原本是他们血
汗劳动所创造的财富和货币！

国际银行家把英格兰银行模式复制到美国的阴谋终于得逞了。从此偿还美国政府
永久的和永远增加的债务利息，就像一根绞索牢牢地套在美国人民的脖子上，越
挣扎越紧。到2006 年，美国联邦政府共欠下8 万6 千亿美元的天文数字的债务，
平均每一个四口之家，要摊上11 万2 千美元的国债，而且国债总额正以每秒２
万美元的速度增长！美国联邦政府对国债利息的开支仅次于健康医疗和国防，2006
年将达到4000 亿美元之巨。

[ 本帖最后由 ZeroYap 于 13-11-2008 02:51 PM 编辑 ]

过路客

原帖由 2750一号 于 13-11-2008 12:45 PM 发表
前辈指的是，成交额。
还有，看三个月的平均数。

这个知道，所以帖#17有注明了。

三个月平均值、一个月平均值、还是 14-天平均值，是见仁见智的问题。如果抄底准确，也不差在几个星期的时间。

能抄得到，真的非常了不起了。

原帖由 2750一号 于 13-11-2008 12:45 PM 发表
当股市跌到谷底的时候，成交量可能是3.0亿

这个我真的不知道。

请问，3亿是如何计算的呢？

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 13-11-2008 01:00 PM 发表
我觉得不用看交易量我都可以大胆直言熊市还没结束，甚至可以说半场都还未到，请再耐心等等吧。PS: 顺便看看Intel的新闻。。。

3rd UPDATE: Intel Cuts 4Q View; Stock At 12-Year Low
Dow Jones
November 12, 2 ...

嗯......

原来生意兄已经有了个时间表。

请问开场时间从何时算起？（介意分享这个这个私人报告吗？哈哈）


我也来大胆说一件事情。本地新闻报章针对专家们预测底部的新闻。

今天的某中文报纸，提到罗杰斯和索罗斯唱反调，该新闻是一则转载。（因为连 Eesti Paeevaleht 多了一个 e 的错误都一样。应该是 Eesti Paevaleht，http://www.epl.ee/。不懂谁看懂能帮忙翻译。）

针对见底，目前专家们的确开始分两派，有两种论调。

我只是不相信 soros 是预测见底的那一派。

先说 Rogers ，目前他看淡行情是大家知道的，要看他的节目太容易了，几乎天天都有。

坦白说他的立场，反复不定。同一个节目，针对同一个市场，可以反复有两种立场，有时候看不太明白。

但，这则新闻对 Soros 的发表，有点歪曲之疑。

1. 他一向是最大力主张此次金融危机的代表人物之一。他是其中一个让大众知道问题的严重性的人。

2. 过去的访问，他都不敢预测经济衰退，何时结束。就算有预测，也是非常保守的说，经济也许需要3-5年才可以完全修复。

3. 信用危机见顶，不表示经济危机见顶。也有专家说，信贷恐慌见顶。只是说明恐慌结束了，不表示经济危机见顶。

这在他随后的发表有着解释。
“但他（soros）表示危机后造成的失业，以及企业生存困难等经济问题依然会继续上演。”

4. 事实上，Soros 和巴菲特一样，大家现在非常贪婪地在市场上捡着便宜股票，只要美国股市不永远在 8000 点徘徊，他们就做对了。但那是因为他们现金太多。就算市场继续下跌，他们还是能买个不停。小散户的我们，资金一下就用完了。不能相提并论。

其实这是某中国新闻记者自己的看法，本地新闻朋友只是负责转载而已。

本地报纸没有转载整个新闻，只是拿了小部分的新闻，还自己注释 soros 唱反调，有点断章取义之嫌。

picasoho

原来如此，但现在的“新闻“的确可信度不太高。断章取义的事感觉蛮常发生的。

Mr.Business

原帖由 过路客 于 13-11-2008 04:15 PM 发表
嗯......

原来生意兄已经有了个时间表。

请问开场时间从何时算起？（介意分享这个这个私人报告吗？哈哈）

我没有时间表，只是我知道外头情形很糟，我国股市似乎没有条件自己玩。Intel是电子业之首，连她都。。。Semiconductor giant Intel Corp. (INTC) slashed its fourth-quarter revenue view by as much as 20% because of "significantly weaker-than-expected demand," sending shares of the tech bellwether to 12-year lows and further rocking an already roiled stock market.

Intel都不乐观了，那整个价值链的厂家都要受影响，我国的出口蛮依靠电子业，肯定受影响。现在在槟岛的很多工厂都在plant shut down,以节省开销，消耗存货，减低供应。。。再次强调现在可是圣诞节时期，从前可是工厂日夜赶工的时候，现在却是plant shut down，可以见得情况不妙。

我国3宝，石油，棕油，电子，每一个都很惨，不景气的效果还没完全出来，所以我不觉得股市是在筑底，等公司裁员倒闭的消息出来再说吧。

goodluck88

Siltera传言要X闭了。。。。

过路客

原帖由 goodluck88 于 14-11-2008 09:25 AM 发表
Siltera传言要X闭了。。。。

是有古怪。亏损额比营业额高。

据说本地很多  GLC 表现很糟糕。

外界对这些公司有很多传闻，政府的口袋好像也..... 最近市场很多小动作，明白就好了。

问题一直被隐瞒。投资者总相信公司财务报告。

有时候，小市民的传闻，未必都是谣言。

空穴来风，事出必有因。

过路客

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 14-11-2008 09:09 AM 发表
我国3宝，石油，棕油，电子，每一个都很惨，不景气的效果还没完全出来，所以我不觉得股市是在筑底，等公司裁员倒闭的消息出来再说吧。

现在只略为感受到购物广场的买气下降。

不久前，很多小本生意已经快支撑不了，但许多名牌店依然保持销售额。

按照次序：

出口贸易剧减 - 出口生产商裁员 - 国家收入减少 - 国内经济循环不景 - 服务业、贸易公司业绩下滑 - 相关行业进行瘦身（裁员）

在以上过程中，零售业由头开始一路面对购买力下降，应该也会逐步做瘦身运动。

听传闻（供应商说的），一些著名广场的部分单位店铺开始不行了。拖欠租金。有些零售商没办法给花红，开始大做展销，囤货额已经超过 12个月，本钱拿得回能付薪水、花红，已经算不错了。

大火还没烧到来，开始蔓延而已。

花脸

檳城的美國廠（幾乎都是業界的top dog）都已經宣布了應急措施，外面的風暴緊了。

goodluck88

我是看好他收档了.....

守护神9413

小弟帮忙转帖， 此消息来自于夜铃

Flextronics 4 days week for Month Nov and Dec.
AMD  Penang announced this morning VSS lay off 500 employees.
Spansion force to take leave (5 days in this quarter)
Jabil planned shut down from Dec 24 to Jan 4, will be 6 days leave.
Agilent planned shut down from Dec 24 to Jan 4, will be 6 days leave. Jan09 might have another shutdown. No increment 2008 review.
Avago no plan shutdown as no more in house production, hiring freeze.
ASE shut down every fortnightly on Monday starting from Nov 3.
Fairchild planned ‘Mass Vacation’ for 9 days leave in FY08
INTEL – No increment 2008 review, VSS for those under perform and massive cut cost/travel 2009, no shutdown plan yet

Motorola, Penang- Still hiring+profit, suspect got government ‘look after’, Singapore cellphone plant cut 800 job and now waiting for sale.

Siltera, kulim – Propose close down this Malaysian 1st Fab company, loss RM4billion in 2008
Fairchild planned 'Mass Vacation' for 9 days leave in FY08
Q2 : 3 days
Q3 : 2 days
Q4 : 4 days
ST-NXP Wireless cuts 500 jobs World-Wide, including subcontractors, from the current total of more than 7500 people.

Flextronics cuts 118 jobs in Limerick,
Ireland
The job cuts were confirmed during this weekend. Flextronics has announced that the company will cut around 100
    jobs at the Limerick plant, said RTE. The reason for the cut backs is due to the global economic downturn.
    Flextronics employs around 300 staff at the Limerick facility, which provides warehousing and logistics services
    to a number of companies in the region.

Dell lays off 700 in Ireland
    The Dell facility in Raheen, Limerick is to lay off 700 temporary workers. Additional to that, Flextronics in Limerick
    is also rumoured to lay off 100 staff.
Mary Coughlan, Irish Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, met with members of Dell's senior management
    to discuss the future of 3000 employees at the manufacturing facility in Limerick.


STMicro to lay off at Phoenix facility

Switzerland based chip maker STMicroelectronics is to lay off staff at its Phoenix, Arizona facility
    Local newsreports state that the chip maker will lay off 100 staff. The facility - which currently employs around
    850 staff - will expercience an ongoing lay off process. azcentral cites spokesman Mike Michael Markowitz in
    saying that "about 100 of the plant's 850 workers were let go this week and that the process would continue".

    Last year, the company announced closure plans for 3 American chip facilities and that chip manufacturing would
    be transferred to low-cost locations. Staff and management hoped for a buyer to keep the plant open.

Dell workers asked to take unpaid vacation
    Media reports state that CEO Michael Dell - of computer giant Dell - has asked employees to consider taking a maximum
    of 5 days unpaid holidays.
    As reported earlier, Dell is currently running a restructuring programme to counteract the economic and financial downturn.
    This include 8,900 job cuts, voluntary severance packages and a global hiring freeze. "We are asking employees on a voluntary
    basis to consider taking off (up to) five days ... as unpaid time off as a flexible way to reduce costs for the company," the CEO
    was cited in a Reuters report in saying.

Tele-Fonika Kable to cut 900
    Polish based cable and wire producer Tele-Fonika Kable plans to lay of 900 employees or 19% of its workforce.
    The lay offs will affect all production units across the group. The company has seven plants, of which five are located in Poland,
    said PB. Tele-Fonika Kable also plans to sell parts of its business, however it will not close down any plants. The company wishes
    to optimize production process and reduce costs.

[ 本帖最后由 守护神9413 于 15-11-2008 06:28 AM 编辑 ]

chookf

GENERAL MOTOR只是大公司，它從來不是好公司，
它的股價幾十年的成長是ZERO！
因為派息，資本開支大，工會福利，錯誤政策，
才導致如此．．．

你舉錯例子了！
為何不舉COCA-COLA, p & g???

goodluck88

有些是真的shutdown的....

笨鳥先飛

16/10/14，马股-19.07点，香港-0.5%，上海-0.72%。
马币3.2357 = 1 USD。
马股今天下跌股超过1千只，指数已经从9月份最高点，回跌到快100点了。今天有不少的投资者也开始在清仓底货，因为大家都好像看不到明天的曙光！
下个星期开始就有连续好几个央行在开会，希望会因此而可以稳定股市！
马股总成交量有25亿，上升64，下跌1001，平盘144，无成交406。