舉債來投資 MEGAN 值得嗎 ? （九）

ckyan

原帖由 khokhokho 于 9-5-2007 04:58 PM 发表

銀行呆帳，連馬來西亞BANK的呆帳也賣出去給人，試問馬來西亞有什麼不可能發生呢?只要公司未來的發展有利，下來那些收不回的錢，也是讓MEGAN管理員把那些欠錢不還的公司，人的名字進入黑名單，少一黑名單，就多 ...

对咯。如果有强劲的政治后台，倒是欠多多都不用怕。

yusiang

真佩服那些牌局／阴谋论的megan股友。阴谋的确常常在klse发生，不过megan应该不是，因为megan的问题其实早就已经开始了，并不象那些突然放出坏消息来骗人放票的公司。发生问题的过程，可以参考这里，
http://investing.businessweek.co ... amp;currency=native

mjchua

今天的 standard & poor's 報告

On May 4, Megan announced that two of its 100%-owned subsidiaries
defaulted on MYR47.3 mln trade facilities and indicated both
companies would be unable to meet other repayments. This is due to
an exceptional build-up of its trade debtors, according to the
announcement. Megan will decide whether it will go into bankruptcy
within three business days.

Based on the available information, we estimate that the group’s total
exposure to its subsidiaries amounts to MYR465 mln, comprising a
US$40 mln loan that was extended by the parent company to a
subsidiary (source: FY06 annual report), and an issue of Bai’
Bithaman Ajil Islamic Debt Securities (BaIDS) with guarantee from the
parent company (source: FY06 annual report).

We have slashed our earnings forecasts for Megan. We now forecast
Megan to record net losses of MYR101.9 mln (from net profit of
MYR54.7 mln) and MYR6.1 mln (from net profit of MYR64.0 mln) in
FY07 and FY08. Our revised forecasts are based on (i) the write-off of
the US$40 mln loan extended by the parent company, and (ii) higher
interest expenses.

We downgrade our recommendation on Megan to Strong Sell (from
Hold) after cutting our 12-month target price to MYR0.26 (from
MYR0.70), which is derived from ascribing 0.15x (from 0.25x) to our
revised FY08 BVPS estimate.

We believe the group is technically insolvent, with total borrowings of
MYR888 mln vs. total shareholders’ funds of MYR507 mln by end
3QFY07. Given the potential bankruptcy and related liabilities that may
exceed our estimate, we believe there is significant downside for
Megan.

We have picked a target P/B multiple of 0.15x, suggesting a 40%
discount to the trough P/B of Taiwanese optical disc manufacturers.
Nevertheless, we view this is a benchmark as opposed to a fair value
for Megan, as the financial health of the group is highly uncertain.

Risks to our recommendation and target price include a higher-thanexpected
proceeds from the disposal of the group’s assets. In addition,
an extension of debt obligations and lower-than-expected interest rates
proposed by lenders will enable Megan continue its operations without
being liquidated.

piao2

We downgrade our recommendation on Megan to Strong Sell (from
Hold) after cutting our 12-month target price to MYR0.26 (from
MYR0.70), which is derived from ascribing 0.15x (from 0.25x) to our
revised FY08 BVPS estimate.

看来，这个价位会在短期内达到。

如果megan宣布破产，加上SnP的煽风点火，目标就快达成了。

khokhokho

原帖由 mjchua 于 9-5-2007 05:58 PM 发表
今天的 standard & poor's 報告

今天的 standard & poor's 報告

On May 4, Megan announced that two of its 100%-owned subsidiaries
defaulted on MYR47.3 mln trade facilities and indicated both
companies would be unable to meet other repayments. This is due to
an exceptional build-up of its trade debtors, according to the
announcement. Megan will decide whether it will go into bankruptcy
within three business days.

Based on the available information, we estimate that the group’s total
exposure to its subsidiaries amounts to MYR465 mln, comprising a
US$40 mln loan that was extended by the parent company to a
subsidiary (source: FY06 annual report), and an issue of Bai’
Bithaman Ajil Islamic Debt Securities (BaIDS) with guarantee from the
parent company (source: FY06 annual report).

We have slashed our earnings forecasts for Megan. We now forecast
Megan to record net losses of MYR101.9 mln (from net profit of
MYR54.7 mln) and MYR6.1 mln (from net profit of MYR64.0 mln) in
FY07 and FY08. Our revised forecasts are based on (i) the write-off of
the US$40 mln loan extended by the parent company, and (ii) higher
interest expenses.

We downgrade our recommendation on Megan to Strong Sell (from
Hold) after cutting our 12-month target price to MYR0.26 (from
MYR0.70), which is derived from ascribing 0.15x (from 0.25x) to our
revised FY08 BVPS estimate.

We believe the group is technically insolvent, with total borrowings of
MYR888 mln vs. total shareholders’ funds of MYR507 mln by end
3QFY07. Given the potential bankruptcy and related liabilities that may
exceed our estimate, we believe there is significant downside for
Megan.

We have picked a target P/B multiple of 0.15x, suggesting a 40%
discount to the trough P/B of Taiwanese optical disc manufacturers.
Nevertheless, we view this is a benchmark as opposed to a fair value
for Megan, as the financial health of the group is highly uncertain.

Risks to our recommendation and target price include a higher-thanexpected
proceeds from the disposal of the group’s assets. In addition,
an extension of debt obligations and lower-than-expected interest rates
proposed by lenders will enable Megan continue its operations without
being liquidated.

今天的標準普爾報告,5月4日 megan宣布其兩個百分之百資子公司拖欠myr47.3mln貿易設施和表示,這兩家公司將 無法滿足其他還款. 這是由於一項特殊建立其貿易應收款項,據宣布. megan將決定是否將走向破產的三個工作日. 根據現有的資料,我們估計,該集團的總暴露及其子公司金額myr465mln, 包括一個40美元的15%,貸款期限由母公司對子公司(資料來源:fy06年報) 的問題,白'bithamanajil伊斯蘭債券(baids)保證由母公司(資料來源: fy06年度報告). 我們必須削減我們的盈利預測megan. 我們現在預測megan記錄淨虧損myr101.9mln(從淨利潤myr54.7mln)myr6.1mln (從淨利潤myr64.0mln)fy07fy08和. 我們必須修訂預測的依據是一)被註銷的40美元貸款mln延長母公司 (二)更高的利息開支. 我們貶低我們的建議megan強賣(擱置)採伐後的十二個月目標價為myr0.26( myr0.70),這是從ascribing0.15x(0.25x)的修改fy08bvps估計. 我們相信,本集團及FAI 與借款總額myr888mln與股東資金總額的myr507mln年底3qfy07. 如果有可能破產及相關負債,可能會超出我們的估計,我們認為有重大的負面影響,為megan. 我們已經發現了目標P/二倍數0.15x, 匯豐六折至谷底p/b台灣光盤製造商. 不過,我們認為,這是一個基準,是相對於公允價值為megan, 作為財政健康的集團具有高度的不確定性. 風險給我們的建議和目標,包括價格較高thanexpected所得的處置工作組的資產. 此外, 延期債務和比預期低利率提出放款將使megan繼續開展業務,未經l iquidated

以上是綱上翻譯中文，並不能作凖，只是給予不會 ABC 的投資者一點點。

web

恭喜各位！
股价止跌，成交量又大。
今天是第三天了，Megan 发表解决方案了没？

yusiang

通常这些报告讲会起到多少多少时，肯定不会起到那么高的。不过，当他们讲会跌到多少时，肯定会跌到那么低。

khokhokho

原帖由 web 于 9-5-2007 06:20 PM 发表
恭喜各位！
股价止跌，成交量又大。
今天是第三天了，Megan 发表解决方案了没？

要看明天，明天是第一次下跌買進的交錢日，如果不會下跌而上升的話，那就等下一輪消息了，二間子公司要如何處理呢?

web

原帖由 阿S 于 9-5-2007 12:52 AM 发表


这个桥段不新鲜，但是也会失手的，如果卖了就突然反升，你就会紧紧抓住LP叫不出声来。只是这个坏消息出来，失手机率低而已。

说中我的痛处。。。
我就是在 LIONDIV RM１.１０时用这招，结果。。。
今天。。。

不过我呵没有像你酱捉住。。。。

无花果

KLSE.8K前辈, 无论MEGAN的结局如何，晚辈还是向您诚恳的说声 ＂谢谢＂。

我买入的数量并不多，但是您的每一个帖, 我是从来没错过。

非常感激您的无私分享。

piao2

根据SnP的报告，共有205.6 millions share。

一条有趣的数学：
今天的股价= 0.475 x 205.6 = RM 97.66M
如果来到 0.26 就是53.46M。

那时，只需半亿就可完全买下megan！

的确是不可思议。一年作10亿的生意额的megan卖半亿。

web

原帖由 chinchai 于 9-5-2007 10:30 AM 发表
Hi, Kawan Megan,

听回来的消息......

某某外资 singapore 分公司, 高级财务经理, 亏空公款xx百万。

xxx , 女 26 岁, 亏空款 xx 百万, 逃去无踪, 公司账目一大糊涂。

喂! 怎么新加坡政府不是很廉洁 ...

真是给 uncle 吓死。。。
看到是２６岁才知道不是MJC。

２６岁可以当高级财务经理的？

奥萨马宾拉丁

原帖由 ckyan 于 9-5-2007 04:47 PM 发表
有时候看着坚持投资MEGAN的人，真是替他们惋惜。
一支投资标从最初1.60买进，到亏剩0.50，到公司负债累累，周转不灵，还是坚持己见，真不知该佩服还是叹气。
不停地用阴谋、牌局来安慰自己，一再把巴菲特的神 ...

忠言逆耳,良药苦口嘛!

8years

“We now forecast Megan to record net losses of MYR101.9 mln “

有这么严重？？两年半的profit就没有了。。。。。。。

8years

原帖由 mjchua 于 9-5-2007 05:58 PM 发表
今天的 standard & poor's 報告

On May 4, Megan announced that two of its 100%-owned subsidiaries
defaulted on MYR47.3 mln trade facilities and indicated both
companies would be unable to  ...

请问在那里可以拿到s&p的report???

mjchua

原帖由 8years 于 9-5-2007 06:52 PM 发表


请问在那里可以拿到s&p的report???

BursaMalaysia 的網站

magnumao

原帖由 web 于 9-5-2007 06:25 PM 发表

说中我的痛处。。。
我就是在 LIONDIV RM１.１０时用这招，结果。。。
今天。。。

不过我呵没有像你酱捉住。。。。

你们.....很搞笑

sogrlcc

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/web ... cheme/eResearch.jsp

8years

原帖由 mjchua 于 9-5-2007 06:53 PM 发表


BursaMalaysia 的網站

谢谢。

8years

原帖由 sogrlcc 于 9-5-2007 06:53 PM 发表
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/web ... cheme/eResearch.jsp

谢谢。