【~~8years~~个人专区 2】8年的投资组合。

8years

很少有问题可以难倒大王

king1892

原帖由 8years 于 6-9-2008 12:43 AM 发表
很少有问题可以难倒大王

被擺上台了...(攤開雙手~~)

明早要去早市買新鮮龍蝦招待PD友，該睡了~~(其實是找藉口繞跑 XD)

大家晚安~~

p/s：C4仔...很有創意的名字...和越王一樣...夠踐...

[ 本帖最后由 king1892 于 6-9-2008 12:50 AM 编辑 ]

老散一名

king  真唔夠老友，馬來年老散我趕工趕再傻傻地 （無法，鬼叫老散我係車衣佬咩 ）你地一斑麻啦老就走去風流快活。

ckyan

第一句超像发哥的。。。

killerz

新鮮龍蝦？？？？

无花

不知道有没有大闸蟹

chookf

【半導體少有好公司】(1)


先看看執世界科技牛耳的美國半導體公司的經營利潤：

	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
ADI	12.80%	16.70%	29.80%	17.90%	6.90%	18.30%	26.60%	21.6%	21.4%	22.2%
AMD	(6.4%)	(11.2%)	19.1%	(1.5%)	(45.4%)	(6.6%)	4.4%	4.0%	(0.8%)	(47.6%)
ASX			19.4%	(1.2%)	(1.5%)	5.7%	9.2%	6.9%	20.4%	19.2%
ATE				(39.0%)	(17.1%)	17.8%	25.4%	25.4%	24.2%	12.4%

tan81

你这么迟，他们全部去ＰＤ　了。这２天，没有人和你吵的。

chookf

CY	(26.2%)	7.5%	25.5%	(56.1%)	(29.9%)	(1.0%)	(0.1%)	(10.4%)	2.5%	0.80%
FCS			18.4%	2.0%	5.0%	(1.4%)	8.4%	(0.4%)	7.2%	6.1%
IFX		(1.5%)	20.3%	(19.8%)	(20.6%)	(5.6%)	4.4%	(4.0%)	(0.7%)	(4.8%)
IRF	5.9%	(2.1%)	14.1%	9.7%	8.0%	(14.7%)	10.8%	16.4%	12.2%	9.50%

chookf

LSI	(8.4%)	9.5%	10.6%	(56.3%)	(14.6%)	(16.1%)	(25.7%)	0.6%	8.0%	(95.7%)
MU	(16.4%)	(1.2%)	31.3%	(24.8%)	(39.6%)	(38.4%)	5.7%	4.5%	6.6%	(4.9%)
NSM	(55.5%)	16.0%	10.5%	(10.6%)	(1.5%)	16.7%	20.9%	30.80%	25.4%	27.0%
QI							5.6%	1.80%	1.5%	(10.1%)
SMI						(19.9%)	8.5%	(7.2%)	(0.9%)	(2.3%)

chookf

STM	12.3%	13.3%	22.8%	5.3%	9.5%	4.6%	7.8%	2.70%	6.9%	(5.4%)
TER	9.0%	14.4%	23.4%	(24.5%)	(45.5%)	(13.0%)	10.5%	(7.6%)	14.3%	3.8%
UMC	2.1%	18.9%	41.1%	(9.2%)	0.1%	10.2%	16.9%	(8.1%)	4.6%	5.40%
WFR	(43.9%)	(22.1%)	(1.4%)	(35.5%)	9.5%	18.3%	25.3%	23.2%	36.2%	44.2%

chookf

德州 儀器	4.7%	17.9%	19.7%	(7.1%)	3.4%	9.8%	17.5%	20.8%	23.6%	25.3%
台積電	27.4%	35.4%	36.4%	10.2%	19.5%	25.3%	34.4%	34.1%	40.1%	34.6%
INTEL	31.9%	33.2%	30.8%	8.5%	16.4%	25.0%	29.6%	31.1%	16.0%	21.4%
NVIDIA	2.9%	14.5%	17.7%	17.7%	7.5%	4.9%	5.7%	14.3%	14.8%	20.4%

我們可以看見，半導體公司的盈利並不穩定，雖然半導體的銷售量年年上升，但平均銷價卻是一回事。

半導體公司多為OEM，利潤非常不穩定，必須要升級到ODM，或許才會好轉。

但也不是每個ODM像台積電那麼強大。

就算升級到最頂級，且成為最知名的OBM，像INTEL, NVIDIA，這兩間公司分別在處理器和顯卡稱霸，但半導體產業的價格起伏不定，所以１０年來，它們的利潤率還是無法擺脫此宿命，利潤率之間的起伏如過山車。

chookf

【半導體少有好公司】(2)

接下來，看看非半導體的品牌廠商的經營利潤：

	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
DELL	11.20%	9.00%	8.40%	5.70%	8.00%	8.60%	8.60%	7.80%	5.30%	5.60%
Nokia	18.7%	19.8%	19.0%	10.8%	15.9%	17.0%	14.8%	13.6%	13.3%	15.6%
APPLE	4.40%	5.9%	6.5%	(6.4%)	0.3%	0.0%	3.9%	11.8%	12.7%	18.4%

相比之下，非半導體的品牌廠商，利潤率就穩定的多，少有出現如過山車的起伏。

只是DELL和NOKIA現在面對競爭壓力越來越大，利潤率出現趨減現象。

而APPLE的利潤率之前的起伏大，那是因為鹹魚番生之故，加上現在它已經不是純粹的電腦公司了！

chookf

好像講太多了！該停了！

之前只是為打擊股市老千才從潛水狀態浮上來講這麼多話。

現在是處於聽其言，觀其行的狀態，
順便蒐集股市老千的資料，
只要ＸＸＸ有異動，我就將該資料post上去，
ＸＸＸ沒異動，我也不會動．．．

无花

不知道他们有没有去SHELL 和ESSO考察一番

无花

好个"敌不动,我不动"

chookf

我的新blogspot如下：
http://ckfstock.blogspot.com

裡面暫時沒什麼東西，只是有舊的
雲頂新加坡名勝世界的分析報告。

因目前正忙於分析美國公司，所以暫時不得空，
不果儘量會將關於我對半導體產業的看法在這個星期內放上去！

有時間我會重新設計我的blog，
裡面以後會有：
１．股票看法
２．行業看法
３．投資哲學
４．經濟看法
５．心情日記
６．個人投資組合紀錄
７．其他．．．．．．

待完成一個基礎結構後再行通知！

8years

哦，好的开始啊。

ckyan

chookf，可以把你的blog网址放在签名吗？那么以后比较容易找到连去看。

Mr.Business

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 5-9-2008 09:40 AM 发表
我对半导体工业没什么研究，只是说说我的印象。。。


我相信你们指的半导体工业周期是从市场调查，IC设计，wafer fabrication直到Assembly andtesting。Assembly andtesting是整个行业最底段的部分，只占了最多20％的价值。似乎在大马上市的半导体公司的业务其实就是承包这Assembly andtesting业务。我国好象也没大的wafer厂 (不清楚)。台積電 (也就是TSMC)负责的是较高价值的部分，也就是wafer＆ maskfabrication。

Assembly and testing工厂的循环波動很大，因为竞争很大，没有智慧版权或科技优势，而且还要购买昂贵的机器。

wafer厂例如TSMC就好些，而最有价值的自然是那些控制IC设计和销售的公司了，她们牢牢控制最有价值的部分，而底价值的wafer fabrication，Assembly and testing就外包出去。

DELL打算卖出厂房，将制造业务外包。这是企业如何在电子业的价值链求存的好例子。 了解如何在这价值链生存，对我们寻找适合的工作和在股市投资都将会非常重要。


Tuesday September 9, 2008
Dell may need to outsource PC making
Comment by David Tan

This will enable it to focus on sales and marketing

THE cyclical nature of the personal computer (PC) industry may force Dell Inc to come up with a new business model to engage contract manufacturers to produce its PCs, while it focuses on sales and marketing activities.

The PC market generally slows in the first and second quarters, and picks up during the third and fourth quarters.

Some five to six years ago, manufacturers of automated equipment, semiconductor products and other components used in the PC and semiconductor industry in Malaysia had come to understand the cycle of the PC market and undertook measures to diversify into other related businesses.

This was necessary as their employees would have very little work during the slow period.

Similarly, Dell finds it very hard to stay competitive in the PC industry if it retains its workforce during the “off seasons.”

It has two choices: it can either produce other related electronic products, or sell its manufacturing facilities and outsource its production.

Outsourcing seems to be the preferred choice, as the Wall Street Journal had last week reported that Dell planned to sell its manufacturing facilities worldwide in a move to restrategise and enhance its competitive edge in the PC industry.

Dell’s new business plans also make sense as its competitors, such as Hewlett-Packard, have already outsourced some of their assembly work to reputable contract manufacturers to cut production costs and increase operating margins.

Dell is now in talks with Singapore and Taiwan-based contract electronic companies to purchase some of its plants.

Taiwainese electronics manufacturers, such as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, Compal Electronics Inc and Quanta Computer Inc, are among the companies that make notebook computer parts for Dell.

Dell has four manufacturing and distribution facilities in the US and one each in Ireland, India, China, Brazil, Malaysia and Poland.

Should Dell decide to sell its manufacturing plants, its Penang factory - with about 2,000 workers - will be affected. This could happen before year-end.

It is learnt that the company was mulling plans to sell the Penang plant, which has the capacity to produce over 14 million PCs a year, and concentrate only on sales and marketing activities.

Dell employs some 5,000 workers in Malaysia, of which about 100 are sales and marketing personnel.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/9/9/business/1978656&sec=business