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FXnoob

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FXnoob

The number of unemployed people fell again in Britain, quite impressively. This doesn’t seem enough for the Pound. The key is in the hands of Mervyn King, which sees the dark side of the economy.

Claimant Count Change, the earliest and most important indicator for British employment, fell by 15,200 jobs in December. This is the second month in a row that the number of unemployed people drop in Britain. Also the Unemployment Rate, a figure that relates to November, dropped back to 7.8%.

The big turnaround was last month, when it was reported that 6,300 were relived of unemployment. This number was revised to 10,800 this time – even better. And now, a drop of 3,300 people was predicted, and the number was almost 5 times more. This looks like a positive trend in British employment.

But the Pound didn’t budge. It initially rose from 1.63 to 1.6325, no big excitement, and afterwards fell back to 1.6295, at the time of writing. Also against the Euro, the Sterling didn’t move after yesterday’s sharp EUR/GBP move.

Yesterday we saw rising inflation in Britain, and today another strong improvement in employment. Both key figures mean stronger economic activity. This should eventually trigger a rate hike. A rate hike will push the Pound higher.

Despite these numbers, no rate hike is in the horizon. Mervyn King made a public appearance yesterday and cooled down such expectations. He said there’s no danger of inflation and focused on the problems of the economy, especially on the big government deficit:

    King also suggested that the bank’s task is complicated by doubt on how fast the next government will cut the budget shortfall. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling told lawmakers last month Britain’s budget deficit will be 611 billion pounds ($994 billion) in the four years through March 2013, 5 billion pounds more than previously forecast.

His speech hurt the Pound immediately, and has an impact today, as strong employment numbers can’t support a rise of the currency.

FXnoob

The number of people unemployed in the UK has fallen unexpectedly for the first time in 18 months.

Total unemployment stood at 2.46 million for the three months to November, down 7,000 on the figure for the previous three months.

It brings to an end the rise in joblessness that began in the summer of 2008 before the UK fell into recession.

The rate of unemployment now stands at 7.8%, down from the 7.9% reported last month.

Meanwhile, the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance fell to 1.61 million in December, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) said.

That is a fall of 15,200 over the month - significantly greater than the 2,500 anticipated by analysts.

The number of 16-24-year-olds out of work also fell over the three-month period between September and November, down from 943,000 to 927,000.

But the fall in unemployment was fuelled partly by an increase in people taking part-time work.
       
MAPPING JOBLESSNESS
UK jobless map

Unemployment in your area

The number of people in part-time employment increased by 99,000 over the quarter to reach a record high of 7.71 million.

More than a million of these were working part-time because they could not find a full-time job - the highest figure since records began in 1992, according to the ONS.

The number of people neither employed nor looking for work - not included in unemployment figures - was up to 21.2% of the population. That was the highest rate since August 2007.

'Still tough'

The figures, which came as a surprise to many analysts, were welcomed by Work and Pensions Secretary Yvette Cooper.

"The jobs market is still tough for a lot of people, but the drop in unemployment and youth unemployment is very welcome," she said.

"It means 450,000 fewer people are out of work than everyone expected last spring."

Analysts were more mixed in their reactions to the figures however.

"The jobless figures show a rather steeper-than-expected decline in the claimant count but it does seem that many people are moving out of the labour market," commented Stephen Lewis, an economist at Monument Securities.

He added that a recovery in the labour market would still depend on the recovery in the wider economy, encouraging companies to hire more staff.

There were some signs of increased demand for workers in the figures. The number of vacancies being advertised rose by 16,000 compared with the previous three-month period, though it is still down significantly on a year ago.

George Buckley, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, called the figures "encouraging".

"In previous recessions it took years for unemployment to stop rising, but that hasn't happened this time," he said.

Mr Buckley added that workers' willingness to accept low pay and shorter hours in return for keeping their jobs was helping limit unemployment.

FXnoob

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FXnoob

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FXnoob

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