投资快报 3

葉芬

SSN今晚飙高了....
blue_angel_007 发表于 7-2-2011 11:06 PM

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/ ... ?source=marketwatch

Samson Oil and Gas: 10 Bagger
February 03, 2011                           |


We have seen plenty of info on Samson Oil and Gas (SSN) lately; it seems to be developing a cult-like following, which is to be expected as this stock is up %1046 over the past year.  Samson has two locations it is focusing on: One small position in the Bakken, and a sizable piece in the Niobrara.  

Its Bakken position is 1,200 net acres.  This area has proven production within the immediate area that is adjacent to 2,000-3,000 BOPD wells.  Samson states that it is looking to increase its McKenzie County holdings in the near term.  It has completed the development stage of this holding.  It has two wells waiting on frac, scheduled for February: One 5,000-foot well to complete on 640-acre spacing and four additional 10,000-foot wells to complete on 320-acre spacing.  

SSN's Niobrara position has been what many are speculating on.  Samson initially inked a deal with Chesapeake (CHK), and a short time later announced a deal with Haliburton (HAL), followed by yet another deal with with Cnooc (CEO). All of this has been very bullish for Samson's stock in the short term.

Even with all the excitement with respect to Samson's stock moving upward, there has been a significant position of shorts buildingalso. Even more recently, another more precise article on the value of Samson's stock was writtenwith respect to valuation. Zman and Toby Shute have both done a very good job of giving investors an idea of what this company is truly worth, although from opposite viewpoints.  

Other catalysts have been research reports from two separate companies.  Enercom released an August  2010 catalyst report that was bullish on the stock, followed by a Hartley's report in November 2010.  Enercom released another reportin December 2010 that more fully described its position on Samson's valuation, while Hartley's reported again on Jan. 27.  All of the reports listed can be found here.

Samson currently has its 3-D seismic done on the Niobrara play.  It has completed the 24,000-acre sale for $74 million.  HAL has been farmed in.  Two appraisal wells are fully carried and now it just needs to develop the resource.  As stated in earlier articles, it is looking to sell its Rockies gas assets.    After the JV with HAL, it has 14,000 net acres.  CHK has two rigs running.  Samson has $10.3 million in debt and $68.6 million in cash.  

SSN's Bakken and Niobrara holdings are similar in several ways.  They both have been productive with respect to vertical wells.  They are thermally mature, and bounded by shale seals.  Both are naturally fractured and have modest clay content.  For these and other reasons, Samson, Chesapeake, and Haliburton seem to believe the horizontal technology applied to the Bakken can also be used on the Niobrara.  Samson states that the Bakken is capable of producing 30-40 million barrels of oil per square mile and the Niobrara will be able to produce 10-20 million over the same area.  

In Hawk Springs there are several big players such as:

• EOG Resources (EOG): 400,000 acres
• Noble Energy (NBL): 750,000 acres
• Chesapeake: 800,000 acres
• SM Energy (SM): 25,000 acres
• CNOOC: $1.27 billion investment
• Samson Oil and Gas: 14,000 acres and two new 5,000 foot laterals carried

In Samson's most recent presentation, it stated several positions with respect to the net barrels of oil translated to it by its position in the Niobrara:

• Robert Coskey: 10.9-21.9 million net barrels
• Samson's estimate: 36.1 million net barrels
• Chesapeake's estimate: 109 million net barrels

On page 20 of this presentation, Samson states it is attributing 413,000 Bbls per well with 160-acre spacing, with recovery of 2,581 bbls per acre.  Its net 14,000 acres would produce a NPV-10 $682 million, or $8.21 per ADS.  Samson states that the value metrics may change, so this value may not be accurate and is only to be used as an estimate.  But these numbers do correlate with the last Enercom report, with a final estimate with respect to Bakken production per well, ultimate recovery of 750,000 barrels and the Niobrara 413,000 barrels.  

In summary, these numbers may or may not be a disappointment to share holders as many were very optimistic with respect to Samson's possible holdings.  I do believe this stock is fairly valued here, and we have upside over the next few months.  It must be said that if Samson has any disappointments with respect to its acreage, it will see a sharp move down with respect to stock price and market cap.

Disclosure: I am long SSN.

葉芬

回复  葉芬


    不管赚钱亏钱,喝茶随时都没问题
前晚上云顶前排$0.849进了三万多PLUG...心想到上 ...
SUNNY仔 发表于 6-2-2011 11:45 PM

今晚的PLUG走勢不好。
我手上也有6粒在 0.84... 暫時還未放。。

bibubibu700

回复 3357# victan

没买到  因为是药股所以怕怕。。

PolisDiRaja

OREX 大起。恭喜！恭喜！
终景 发表于 7-2-2011 10:36 PM

   
谢谢，收到迟来的红包，

SUNNY仔

回复 3362# 葉芬


    昨晚PLUG的after hours价钱起接近13%至八十八分...希望今晚有看头....

blue_angel_007

Queue for PLUG.......

veryfree

HDY today's low 4.67 有人接刀嗎?

终景

回复  终景


   谢谢。在看看今晚的走势如何才卖出去。
victan 发表于 7-2-2011 10:42 PM

    卖了没？开始下调了。有没有赚60%以上？

blue_angel_007

OREX今晚大跌....大套利.....

victan

回复 3368# 终景


   昨晚卖完了。想到今晚T+5。平均价3.95。小赚一些。

PolisDiRaja

回复  终景


   昨晚卖完了。想到今晚T+5。平均价3.95。小赚一些。
victan 发表于 8-2-2011 11:24 PM

   
我还在苦苦支撑着还没卖。。。再等4块钱到来。。。。

葉芬

回复  葉芬


    昨晚PLUG的after hours价钱起接近13%至八十八分...希望今晚有看头....
SUNNY仔 发表于 8-2-2011 07:09 PM

jin tian hai shi bu neng kan shi, xian zai zai wang ba.

migo

HDY today's low 4.67 有人接刀嗎?
veryfree 发表于 8-2-2011 10:44 PM

    什么刀,今天你就知道这不是刀

grasslow

回复 3373# migo


    Pre market $5, 这只股上下很明显，就像过山车。

终景

我还在苦苦支撑着还没卖。。。再等4块钱到来。。。。
PolisDiRaja 发表于 9-2-2011 12:30 AM

又下了， 还没卖吗？赢少少好过被套牢。

victan

又下了， 还没卖吗？赢少少好过被套牢。
终景 发表于 9-2-2011 10:45 PM

    对对，最重要是有赚，有赚就好。

巨大的西瓜

没人的。。。

PolisDiRaja

对对，最重要是有赚，有赚就好。
victan 发表于 9-2-2011 11:19 PM

   
丢票了，两天赚少9千马币。。。

roberto

BMB Munai: A significantly undervalued oil company
Feb 7, 2011 1:33 PM

BMB Munai (symbol: KAZ) is a small cap oil company which appears to be extremely undervalued.  I have been adding to my position in KAZ for several reasons. KAZ looks great technically, the 50 day moving average recently crossed over the 200 day moving average which is a very bullish "golden cross formation" on the chart that can attract momentum traders and other investors. The fundamentals look good too. KAZ has a book value of about $4.08 per share and they recently announced a very significant increase in production at their Kariman well. The Chairman owns about 12 million shares (he used to work at Chevron) and he hasn't sold any shares since 2007 back when KAZ traded for over $5 per share.

Some of the risks for KAZ include the fact that it operates out of Kazakhstan. While that region is not viewed to be as stable as the US,this is a positive in many ways since Kazakhstan is so rich in oil. Chevron has invested heavily in Kazakhstan and so have various Chinese interests.  Read more about the oil reserves in Kazakhstan here: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Kazakhstan/Background.html

What pressured the stock to around 60 cents earlier this year is that notes came due but they appear to have resolved that issue in principle. If that falls through, it could hurt the stock- read more on this issue here:  http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/KAZ/808185659x0x402661/9e6ec204-d2e3-4c8f-a9de-584eaa5948a7/BMB_Munai_Inc._Reaches_Agreement_on_Covertable_Notes.pdf

I expect the note holders and KAZ to find a reasonable solution soon. It appears that note holders would receive nothing if they forced KAZ into bankruptcy. The licenses held by KAZ would likely revert back to the Kazakhstan government plus the current management is needed to operate the company and maintain the existing relationship with the Kazakhstan government, without this note holders have nothing. I believe they will agree to a longer term extension or perhaps KAZ will be able to find financing elsewhere and pay off these note holders. They could agree to convert some notes into shares as well. Long term, I view any of these options as a positive for the company and shareholders.

Here is the investor presentation from KAZ, and I have highlighted some key points below:  

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/KAZ/808185659x0x438377/CEB5E27D-E06E-426B-93C0-EA5F84914FB9/BMB_Presentation.pdf

P1 reserves for KAZ is about 23million barrels of oil (about 82 million in P2 reserves). KAZ expects to start including gas reserves in P1 reserves in the next reserve report which should be out in Q1 of 2011.

KAZ management appears to have good relations with the Kazakhstan government.

If you compare the P1 reserves for KAZ to other small oil companies such as MHR, KOG it shows that KAZ appears to be extremely undervalued. As we have seen recently, these small oil companies can move fast and hard once positive momentum turns for them. SSN,KOG, MHR have seen huge runs from well under $1 to well over $5 in some cases. If KAZ resolves the note holders deal in a fair deal for both sides, I expect to see the stock jump substantially. If oil and inflation rise in the next couple years, it would be very reasonable for KAZ shares to return to over $5 per share, as they were before the financial crisis.

The 52 week high for KAZ is currently about $1.22 per share, so it will not be surprising to see KAZ break out and make new 52 week highs in the near future.

Disclosure: All information is from reliable sources but not guaranteed.

浪人一

马股大跌啊，美股今晚乐观吗？