醫藥手套生產部，裁減員工達到1000人。 >> TOPGLOVE会步后路吗？？

Takumi

Market Talk: TOPGLOV

DJ MARKET TALK:JPM Still Neutral On Top Glove;MYR6.90 Target
12/01/2006 03:36:00 PM

1536 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: JP Morgan keeps Neutral call on Top Glove (7113.KU) with MYR6.90 target price "as valuations appear stretched especially as the share price has gained 48% in the past 12 months". Notes profit margin up at 13.7% in 1Q06 vs 12.6% in 4Q05 on higher selling price; "management may consider another selling price increase should latex price reach MYR4.50 sen/kg". "Fundamentally, we believe that earnings will grow on track." Shares flat at MYR6.75.(CAL)

Investssmart: Just because the share price gained 48% in 12 months does not mean that it is overvalued. Earnings have been growing in tandem with share price gain, unlike other companies that gain purely based on speculation. In the briefing given by TOPGLOV yesterday, management announced that earnings forecast for 2006 is $81m or 42.8c, translating to a PE of 15.8x based on its share price of $6.75. When analysts say its valuation is stretched, this is the PE they are referring to.

At 15.8x PE, it does appear fully valued. However, another 40% growth in earnings will propel its 2007 EPS to 60c. If we value TOPGLOV at 16x PE, its fair value should be $9.60 based on its 2007 EPS. The question now is whether we should be looking at the 2006 or 2007 forecast. When we value shares, we should always have an eye for the future. TOPGLOV has grown at more than 40% for 9 consecutive years. There is now reason for us to believe that the forecast is unachievable.

It is already 2006 and first quarter earnings has shown a 40% increase compared to the corresponding quarter in the previous year. It will be just a matter of time that TOPGLOV's valuation will be judged based on 2007 earnings. At 16x PE based on 2006 earnings, TOPGLOV is valued at $6.85. Based on 2007 earnings, it will be $9.60. Now that TOPGLOV is in the second quarter of 2006, I don't think we should be valuing TOPGLOV solely based on a 2006 EPS. I believe that it would be fair to value it in between the 2006 and 2007 forecast, which is $8.20. It seems to me that JP Morgan's target of $6.90 is a little too low and I believe that they will upgrade it in the near future, probably after a favourable second quarter earnings. I would give it a strong BUY at about $6.50. However, a strong rise in the RM could dampen its earnings so we will have to watch out for that.

Takumi

2006/01/27 17:55:06
●南洋商报

艾文纽证券行的报告指出，顶级手套在以往的5年营业额及净利复合年成长率分别取得46％及32％增长。分析员认为，顶级手套的稳固盈利前景，市场或许会对此股“折价”（根据2006财政年及2007财政年40％的扩充产能计划）。另外，2006年该集团可能引发的并购计划料提供投机的机会。

顶佳手套的运输已经超越了季度业绩表现以及市场预测。这主要归功于该集团增加新的产线、加上鲜少发生故障因素所致。因此，该集团在全球的市场占率也从2005年12月的16％增加至2007年12月的25％。根据大马胶手套制造商会（Margma）数据显示，仅有顶级手套及高产尼品工业的市场占率增加。

该集团在泰国的专注乳胶工厂预计在2006年9月开始投入商业贸易。虽然大部份的产能将由内部使用，无形中减少了该集团的盈利，然而，分析员预测该集团自己制造专注乳胶有助于节省7％至8％的成本。

顶级手套在泰国的营运盈利逐渐复苏，以及扣除利息、税务、折旧与摊销赚幅在2006财政年首季获得改善1.3点至2.5％。该集团的翻新投资是以燃料资源为主导，其中泰国工厂的生产线转换燃料即从液化石油气转换成生物燃料，预测每个月节省90万令吉的成本。

分析员认为可能引发的并购计划能加强该集团在医药及高级手套业务。目前，该集团的医药手套在营业额上占少过2％，但是，赚幅近普通乳胶手套的2倍。

根据顶级手套2年的盈利复合年成长率达35％，相较于综指的8.3％。因此，合理价格为8.30令吉，而这是根据10％的溢价以及12个月的目标市场本益比推算（或2007财政年14.8倍的本益比）。分析员保持“超越大市”评级。

Takumi

2006/01/27 17:55:06
●南洋商报 报道：苏慧玲

吉隆坡27日讯-分析员认为，如果大马政府相关公司的重组计划誓要在2015年打造数家在区域享有声望的公司，那么作出“非政府相关公司”的橡胶手套业者则早已捷足先登，已在国际舞台占有非凡的定位。

根据艾文纽证券行的报告指出，业者面对手套供不应求（业者整合以及跨国公司外包趋势提高）的情况，加上全球对手套需求增长，促使大马的橡胶领域在以往的几年有不俗的业绩表现。

报告指出，橡胶手套业者预计在短期内不会放缓，因为产能扩充计划在未来的2至3年，平均产能增长30％至40％。此外，业者的并购计划料为该领域捎来喜讯，其中涉及并购计划的如手套主导业者顶级手套（TopGlov，7113，主板工业产品股）以及高产尼品工业（Kossan，7153，主板工业产品股）。

报告显示，2005年首半年共有370亿只手套出口，相较于2004年首半年的242亿只手套，这也意味着按年比较取得52.8％的增长。此外，即用即丢的天然乳胶手套在大马的市场占率从2004年的55％增加至2005年的62％。从大马进口即用即丢的天然乳胶医药手套于2004年取得13.5％的增长，相较于美国市场进口的增长仅占0.8％。

大马晋身最大出口商

大马晋为最大的天然乳胶手套出口商。大马出口天然乳胶手套至美国已在数年前不断地增加。另外，主要业者如顶级手套以及高产尼品工业预计2年的盈利增长强劲，料取得逾30％增长，相较于5年的复合年成长率取得逾25％。

大马即用即丢的天然乳胶手套制造商在以往的12个月的数据从50下滑至40，每年的产能少过20亿，产量逾80％。在半成品领域，经济效益是奠定业者的竞争能力的外来因素，因此，规模是最重要的一环。

分析员指出，如果小型制造商每年生产少过7亿个手套，那么会被市场的力量排挤出来或收购。因此，预计市场每年会有105亿个手套的供应有待于填补（相等于5家顶尖制造商计划2006年产能扩充计划68％以及全球需求增长65％）。分析员认为顶级手套以及高产尼品工业可能进行并购计划以进一步整合公司的业务。

根据报告指出，有些投资者认为橡胶手套股项目前的估价太过昂贵，相较于其它的商品股项的交易价介于1个位数。基于橡胶手套拥有标青的业绩表现、稳定的业务组合以及稳固的盈利前景，分析员相信橡胶手套股项值得获取溢价评级。

尽管橡胶手套股项前景备受看好，然而，此股项仍存在一些风险其中包括较高的燃料价格、乳胶原料供应紧缩、令吉兑美元增值等。

顶级手套乃是证券行的首选股项，其它的股项有高产尼品工业以及稳大（Adventa，7191，二板工业产品股）。

03/02/2006  RM7.15  ---> RM7.50  

[ 本帖最后由 cct65 于 4-2-2006 12:59 PM 编辑 ]

Takumi

估值廉宜．或併購鞏固地位
頂級手套可跑贏大市
updated:2006-02-09 18:42:09 MYT

（吉隆坡訊）股價近期屢創新高的頂級手套（TOPGLOV，7113），其仍然廉宜的估值及可能進行併購活動，獲AVENUE證券維持“跑贏大市”的投資評級。

AVENUE證券指出，頂級手套不僅被喻為是基本因素持續不斷改善的最佳上市公司之一，過去5年的營運收入與淨利複合年增長率更分別高達46%和32%。

該證券行說：“我們認為，儘管市場可能已消化頂級手套亮麗的獲利前景，其估值仍然廉宜。”

“此外，2006年可能進行併購活動應可為該公司股票帶來一些投機購興　”

AVENUE證券認為，由於頂級手套比預期中更快裝置新的生產線，預料該公司可順利於2007年底實現目標，將其在世界市場的佔有率從去年底的16%增至25%。

同時，該公司也認真考慮併購其他同儕，以鞏固在外科及高檔手套市場的地位。

目前，外科手套產品佔頂級手套總營運收入的不到2%，但賺幅卻比普遍膠手套高出近倍。

AVENUE證券估計頂級手套截至今年8月的財政年，可取得8450萬令吉的淨利或45.1仙的每股盈利，2007年財政年淨利料進一步增至1億零570萬令吉或每股盈利56.3仙。

fatfat191

如果今天我投资顶级手套，会太迟吗？（如长期投资）

Takumi

天然膠行情飆漲
頂級手套再調高手套價10%
updated:2006-02-21 14:24:52 MYT

（吉隆坡訊）天然膠行情飆高，全球最大膠製手套供應商頂級手套（TOPGLOV,7113）在兩個月內，第2次宣佈調高手套價格，漲幅達10%。

每年生產180億只手套的頂級手套，週一面對賣壓。閉市時，下滑10仙，至7令吉35仙。從今年1月1日至今，該股總共上揚7.3%。


目前，乳膠刷下自1988年以來的新高。截至本月15日止，掛每公斤559.5仙，較今年1月3日的445仙高出25.7%。

東京商品交易所的天然膠價格在上個月急漲11%，至每公斤248.5日圓（約783仙），直接推高手套製造成本。2005年天然膠全年猛漲56%。

頂級手套執行主席拿督斯里林偉才發表文告說，以現有乳膠行情來看，將手套價格調高10%是無可避免的。

“不過，一旦乳膠價格下滑，我們將把省下的成本轉讓全球客戶享有。”

該公司於上月1日將手套價格調高15%。

上月，大馬膠手套製造商協會表示，手套價格將漲價至少8.7%，以應付日益走高的天然膠製造成本，同時也作出警告，價格可能繼續高居不下。

該組織是代表52名會員發表談話。該批會員的手套產量佔全國的90%。目前，由大馬製造的手套主要用在製藥業。

全球3大主要橡膠生產國，包括泰國、印尼與大馬，因面對洪水、豪雨等影響，而拉低產量，導致天然膠行情節節上揚。

Takumi

原帖由 fatfat191 于 21-2-2006 01:36 PM 发表
如果今天我投资顶级手套，会太迟吗？（如长期投资）

只要你看好它在明年达到全球4分之1的市场份额就值得长期投资了！

共勉之

fatfat191

今天我成为TOPGLOVE（７１１３）的小小股东，希望过去的辉煌成绩，能够成为未来的推动力，推动股价达高峰。

注：我是以RM７。３０为开始。。。。

洪老大

如无意外，今年尾或明年初将到RM10

jackphang

不错的长期投资，如果你没有时间看其他股的话，这只股值得收藏，我看好林博士可以挤入TOP20，甚至TOP10。(如果保持10年高成长的话)

fujishu

购制造厂·进行扩充 顶级手套前景看俏 2006/02/22 17:54:50
●南洋商报
       
       

吉隆坡22日讯-基于顶级手套（TopGlov，7113，主板工业产品股）公开收购有潜质的手套制造厂、加上扩充计划已上轨道，分析员看好顶级手套股项且没给予任何的评级。


对非上市公司感兴趣

根据马银行证券行的报告指出，顶级手套管理层指出集团以合适的价格公开收购现有的手套制造厂。不过，集团对非上市公司的业者较为感兴趣因为收购非上市公司的程序比较简化。然而，这个说法推翻了市场的预测即是顶级手套有意收购一家上市公司。

另一方面，该集团也强调寻找收购的目标必须是具有潜质的公司。管理层也清楚地表明有意收购竞争者的优质生产线（例如高赚幅的医药手套）及其它与众不同的资源。

胶价上涨不利手套公司

报告指出，乳胶价格上涨将不利于手套公司。基于乳胶生产地区发生水灾（如泰南）及冬季生产乳胶而促使乳胶价格近期持续上涨，导致乳胶供应缩减。胶价在2006年2月3日一度冲破每公斤5.135令吉，较2005年12月30日的每公斤4.43令吉增加15.9％。

小型手套业者还未把额外的成本价格转嫁于旗下的客户前，乳胶价格上涨2至3个月。猛涨的乳胶价促使小型手套制造商面临现金流动问题。

另外，顶级手套仅转让80％的额外成本于客户而剩余的20％就由该集团承担。这也进一步改善了集团的效率、经济效益以及节省成本也随之提高。此外，这也将进一步使到小型竞争者感受到压力因为小型业者并没有雄厚的资金。

因此，如果以乐观的角度看待这件事情，乳胶价格持续上涨将是大型公司如顶级手套除去低效率的业者。

附加151条生产线

顶级手套的扩充计划在计划中进行。该集团在2006年2月所有的生产线共有200条，每年生产的手套是180亿只。该集团在未来的2年将附加另外151条生产线。

顶级手套在2007年8月将一共拥有350条生产线，每年生产290亿只手套。泰南的工厂预测一旦在2006年9月开始营运后，每个月能生产4千吨橡胶，总投资额为3千万令吉。

管理层指出，该集团积极拓展40％的生产产能将在2007财政年杪结束，而是项增长在2007年杪将会放缓。分析员长期看好手套领域的前景，因为中国及印度的市场未来在经济发展及卫生保健将会建立另一个手套的需求。

顶级手套17.3倍的交易价格是与2006每股盈利42.6仙是一致的，比起其它手套业者如速伯玛（Supermx，7106，主板工业产品股）及高产尼品工业（Kossan，7153，主板工业产品股）的11至12倍来得高。

根据市场预测，顶级手套在2007财政年每股净利为56.3仙，交易价格在13.1倍的本益比。如果与15倍的本益比挂钩，分析员对顶级手套没有给予任何的平级，合理价格为8.50令吉。

wtk75

刚好看到，顺便转贴。。。。

IS Top Glove Corp Bhd on the merger trail? Speculation has been rife that Malaysia's leading manufacturer of gloves, with a production capacity of some 18 billion gloves a year, has been looking for a suitable alliance.

According to Mayban Securities, the indication is that Top Glove has altered its initial stance of exclusively pursuing organic growth in an attempt to expand, as the company's management has indicated that acquiring an existing glove manufacturer would be a possibility should the price be right.

In early February, a company official was quoted as identifying mergers and acquisitions as an avenue to accelerate growth. Kicking all this off is the current climate in the local glove industry, which has seen the number of players diminish by about two-thirds in recent years and from 50 to 42 in the last year due to stiff competition.

“It's about time for Top Glove to cast its nets. Consolidation is a reality, and it doesn't want to be seen as playing catch-up,” says an industry observer, pointing out that rival glove manufacturer Supermax Corp Bhd took up a controlling share in local glove companies APL Industries Bhd and Seal Polymer Industries Bhd last year.

The name being bandied about is Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd.

On the face of it, an alliance with Kossan would be a good fit, as it produces medical-grade gloves for examination and surgical purposes. This goes with Top Glove's policy of seeking out companies with complimentary product lines and a different product base, an approach that it hopes will yield synergistic benefits and avoid overlapping of resources.

However, following a recent company visit by Mayban, information has come of late that may put these rumours to the sword.

“Top Glove is more interested to acquire a non-listed partner as the acquisition process is shorter and less complicated. This rules out the recent market speculation that it is acquiring another listed glove player, Kossan Rubber,” notes Mayban.

High prices

The bank-backed research house also feels that the current latex price climate may not be all doom and gloom for Top Glove. A number of parties have recently expressed concern over high latex prices. Along with crude oil, which is also on a rising price trend, the two are vital ingredients in the manufacture of natural rubber and synthetic rubber gloves.

According to Top Glove executive chairman Datuk Lim Wee Chai, the current situation means that a 10% increase in glove prices is “inevitable”, on top of an upswing in price that has already seen glove prices jump 15% since January. In a statement, he said that February's latex price of almost RM5.60 per kg represented an 18-year high.

Floods and heavy rain have afflicted Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, the world's three largest latex producers, while it is currently the wintering season, during which rubber trees shed their leaves. These seasonal factors have restricted the supply of latex, which in turn drives up its price.

'The general perception is that persistently high latex prices are detrimental to glove companies. Nevertheless, (Top Glove's) management has a contrarian view, and we concur,” says Mayban.

It points out that high latex prices cause cash flow problems for small glove manufacturers, due to the two to three month lag before these additional costs can be passed to clients. However, as Top Glove is the market leader, it only passes some 80% of the additional costs to customers, instead countering rising costs by improving efficiency and economies of scale.

'This puts further pressure on smaller competitors that may not have the financial strength to follow suit. Therefore, the persistently high latex prices, if viewed positively, could be an opportunity for big companies like Top Glove to wipe out inefficient players,” says Mayban.

Aggressive expansion

After the company's AGM in January, Lim said Top Glove's aggressive expansion plans would help boost its revenue to the RM900mil mark for the financial year ending August 2006, up from RM641.8mil a year previously. Meanwhile, net profit is expected to jump 40% to RM81mil from RM58.1mil.

He expects Top Glove's revenue to improve to RM1.26bil in 2007, while adding that the company plans to pay 30% of its net earnings as dividends compared with 16% last year.

As at February this year, the company's annual production of 18 billion gloves comes from its total of 200 production lines.

Top Glove is in the process of adding another 151 lines over the next two years, meaning that by August 2007, it will have a total of 350 production lines with an annual capacity of 29 billion pieces.

Meanwhile, the company has successfully moved upstream. Production at its RM30mil latex concentration plant in Southern Thailand is on track to get underway in September with an initial capacity of 4,000 tonnes of latex a month. This is expected to cater to some 50% of Top Glove's latex needs.

While the indication from the company's management is that its plan to expand production capacity by 40% a year will peak in 2007, Mayban is positive on the industry's long-term prospects, citing the economic development and healthcare advancement in the populous nations of China and India which will create a demand boom for gloves.

The research house points out that Top Glove is still attractive for forward-looking investors as it is trading at a 17.3 times (x) consensus earnings per share (EPS) in 2006 of 42.6 sen, which is substantially higher than the 11x to 12x trading range of its peers such as Supermax and Kossan.

Given that February marks the end of Top Glove's second quarter, Mayban is valuing the company using the 2007 financial year forecasts. Based on the consensus 2007 EPS of 56.3 sen, Mayban finds that Top Glove is trading at a price earnings ratio (PER) of only 13.1x, which it views as being attractive.

Mayban has a target PER of 15x for Top Glove, from which it derives an indicative fair value of RM8.50 for the counter.

随着国内汽油和乳胶原料的暴涨,
会对橡胶手套业带来什么影响呢?
Topglove 还能保持过去的辉煌成绩吗 ？



[ 本帖最后由 cct65 于 28-2-2006 08:46 PM 编辑 ]

DRAGONISM

TOPGLOV季度报告即将出炉, 期待期待......

Takumi

http://announcements.bursamalays ... 325422?OpenDocument

股价应该会突破8零吉哦！


長期賺益保持平穩
updated:2006-04-05 19:39:05 MYT

（吉隆坡訊）擴展生產線及改善成本效率，推動頂級手套（TOPGLOV,7113）交出亮眼的上半年業績單，分析員指出，在膠乳價格放緩以及生產線持續擴護航下，該公司成長展望仍亮麗。

不過，估值水平已明顯高估，不斷擴充生產線將推高資本開銷額，預料影響未來財政年派息率。

膠乳價格上揚打擊頂級手套賺幅，貢獻集團78%營運盈利的大馬業務成為受害者，但中國和泰國業務表現繼續獲得改善。

南方證券該行指出，手套售價和膠乳價格走勢處於同一軌道，因此看好頂級手套的長期賺益保持相對平穩。並預測2006和2007財年淨利，維持在8040萬和1億1190萬令吉水平。

截至2006年2月杪28日首6個月，頂級手套淨利達3840萬令吉，較前期勁揚42.9%，占全年淨利預測的47.7%。營業額也按年猛增51.9%至4億3720萬令吉。

膠乳行情回跌

原料膠乳行情目前已從每公斤5令吉59仙高峰，回跌至5令吉41仙水平，但仍按年升漲54%，預料所有手套生產商將面對短期（2至3個月）的賺幅打擊

該公司的第13家工廠一再今年1月建峻，目前正在裝置生產線。第14和15家工廠也分別在今年6月和8月落成。

南方證券指出，不斷擴充生產線也影響本開銷額水漲船高，將限制未來財政年的派息率。

達證券看好頂級手套接下來兩季，將取得更佳的業績表現，主要基于管理層素質良好、積極市場行銷、通過增加產能達到更佳經濟效益，及改善成本管理和效益。 （星洲日報／財經‧2006/04/05）

[ 本帖最后由 Takumi 于 6-4-2006 12:28 PM 编辑 ]

10/4/2007  TOPGLOV  8.15

[ 本帖最后由 cct65 于 11-4-2006 04:32 PM 编辑 ]

hongchew

又创新高!!!

连续好几季，盈余报告出来后，就一直往上冲。又重复了吗？

os

KLCI 940, PE=15, EPS 大约 = 62.5
如果大牛，PE=25, KLCI=1562
如果大熊，PE=10, KLCI=625
论战术，今年顶级06的EPS=43，PE=20,超越KLCI 33%，因该怎样做，很明显。
论战略，论宏观，其潜能无法设量，目前市值是OYL的三分之一，马航的40%，马银行的三十分之一。
论成长，如果有多三年的cagr 40%, PE又会变成10。
PE=10 对一家 MNC (分分钟可以进入1000大甚至500大)，是相当便宜的。
当然，事情要两面看。
大熊，klci pe=10,既然大众看得起他，给他pe=12超越大势，股价=0.43x12 = 5.15
衰衰八块半进，然后进入熊市的话，就可能亏40%，风险应该比买一年半内的涡轮小。。。

无论以战术或是战略来衡量，无可否认的，它是大马的奇迹，也是大马的骄傲。
大马若多几个类似的出口公司，GDP何尝不会高多几个百分点，汇率何患不增值，股市何畏不会起。
希望它赚钱的同时，不要忽略保护环境。

TOPGLOV  9.00 ...... April 18 2006




[ 本帖最后由 cct65 于 18-4-2006 11:36 AM 编辑 ]