【~~kinwing~~个人专区】长期投资的旅程

kinwing

SWISSCASH SCAM: Success due to painstaking work

KUALA LUMPUR: Securities Commission investigators probing the Swisscash scam had spent two years painstakingly recording statements from victims and sifting through mountains of paperwork. They even had to go overseas to carry out surveillance on the main suspects.

In the end, their diligent work paid off as the recent landmark court order against three people to compensate victims of the scam to the tune of US$83 million (RM286.17 million) showed.

The case began in mid-2006 when the SC received a complaint from a victim of the scam.

The report was referred to the SC Investor Affairs and Complaints Department. Swisscash fund is an investment programme offered through the Internet and local agents.

It had neither been approved nor endorsed by the Securities Commission or Bank Negara Malaysia.

Investigators made site visits for intelligence gathering and also to ascertain if the proprietors had the proper documents and licences to operate.

At the same time, they also ascertained the main players involved in the business.

The initial stages of the probe revealed that Swisscash was offering fund management services, taking money from investors and promising to invest in various high yielding investment funds with up to 300 per cent returns.

However, the company was breaching security laws as it did not possess the proper documents or licences to operate.

Activities involving securities, equities or fund management come under the purview of the SC.

When investigations revealed that funds contributed by an undisclosed number of victims ran into millions of ringgit, the Investor Affairs and Complaints Department passed the case to the SC Prosecution and Investigation Department.

Investigators then began due diligence on the case.

They began interviewing various victims who had parted with their hard-earned cash.

They also ran background checks on the main players involved.

"Swiss Mutual Fund was not licensed or exempted from licensing by Bank Negara Malaysia to accept deposits, nor was it licensed by the Securities Commission to carry out asset management activities or investment advisory services in Malaysia," the source said.

"Many people were so swayed by greed and promises of lucrative returns that they did not do their own checks to ascertain if the company making such promises was actually authorised to conduct such activities."

Sources disclosed that investigators also made several trips abroad as part of surveillance operations and to monitor the actions of the main suspects and the flow of cash.

"Cash contributed by victims of the scam was being funnelled to bank accounts abroad and investigators had to sift through mountains of paperwork to trace the money.

"Cooperation was sought from various agencies abroad as it had become a transnational case with the main suspects constantly travelling and cash being transferred to foreign accounts."

In July last year, the SC obtained a worldwide Mareva injunction against persons involved in the Swisscash investment scam, preventing them from disposing assets in and outside Malaysia.

Seen as a milestone enforcement action against investment scams, the SC also announced that it had blocked access to two other websites offering illegal investment schemes.

The Mareva injunction restrains and prohibits the defendants from carrying on the business of Swisscash, targeting, soliciting and collecting funds from the public for investments in Swisscash or any other Internet investment scheme.

The defendants also cannot host or operate the Swisscash websites or operate any other such websites which solicit investments for Swisscash or any other Internet investment scheme.

In September last year, the SC won a court order to transfer RM35 million accumulated under the Swisscash scam back to Malaysia.

The money was being held in six bank accounts in Hong Kong and eight in Singapore.

"As Swisscash had turned out to be a worldwide scam that operated using the Internet, the SC worked closely with regulators from seven other countries to combat these illegal activities.

"The cross-jurisdictional collaboration between so many agencies also helped to unearth valuable information that has helped investigators in the course of their probe," the source said.

Now that the judgement has been delivered, the SC is liaising with authorities from other countries with different jurisdictions and legal processes, to trace and repatriate the monies back to Malaysia.

http://www.nst.com.my/Current_News/NST/Tuesday/National/2363615/Article/index_html

[ 本帖最后由 kinwing 于 2-10-2008 09:13 AM 编辑 ]

kinwing

SWISSCASH SCAM: BMW impressed colleague to invest in scheme

KUALA LUMPUR: Tony (not his real name) had a successful job as an broadcasting executive with a reputable firm and was preparing to tie the knot with his childhood sweetheart. In January 2006, a colleague of mine bought a brand-new BMW 740Li worth almost RM800,000.

"We were amazed at how he could afford it, given that we were all on more or less the same salary scale," Tony told the New Straits Times.

"When we asked him how he could afford to purchase the car, he took us out for a meal and proceeded to tell us about the Swisscash investment programme and how he had profited from it."

According to Tony, his colleague had been among the early birds who had signed up with the investment programme when it was introduced and thus been able to earn 20 per cent every month with the promise of 300 per cent returns after 450 days.

"After hearing him rave about Swisscash and the amazing returns he had enjoyed after signing up for a mere six months, it started me thinking.

"I was going to marry my childhood sweetheart in January 2007 after five years of courtship and dating. And I wanted to make our honeymoon especially memorable for the both of us.

"I started to do some homework on Swisscash and discovered they invested in securities and equities in foreign stock markets.

"It never occurred to me to check whether the company had been licensed by the authorities to operate.

"After several days of contemplation, I decided to put an initial investment of RM10,000 into Swisscash."

It was all good for the first four months as Tony received RM2,000 every month.

He then decided to put his returns back into Swisscash.

Two months later, Tony managed to persuade his fiancee to invest the RM50,000 they had set aside for their wedding, although she initially had reservations. She gave in as he wanted to make enough money to take her to Europe on their honeymoon.

In August 2006, Tony checked his Swisscash account and noted with satisfaction that 20 per cent of his total investment had been credited.

To celebrate, he took his fiancee for a romantic dinner.

The next month, the troubles began when a report was lodged with the Securities Commission. After a warning was jointly issued by the SC and Bank Negara Malaysia, Tony began to have doubts.

He issued instructions for the money in his Swisscash account to be transferred to his bank account and was told it would be done in a week. It was not.

After several weeks and attempts to get the money transferred, Tony's calls went unanswered and a visit to the company's office revealed it had been closed.

The couple were married in January last year. The lovebirds had to borrow money from their parents for the wedding and dinner.

When he learnt of the latest court order against the three defendants to compensate victims of the scam, Tony could only say: "This was a valuable lesson for me not to be greedy."

http://www.nst.com.my/Current_News/NST/Tuesday/National/2363656/Article/index_html


为什么散户投资者总是不能从以前曾经发生过类似的事件吸取教训？因为人心不足蛇吞象。

一个月能回酬20%以至一年回酬能达到360%的投资标，真的存在吗？

假设真的有这么好的投资标一年回酬能高达几百巴仙，会轮到你吗？这种回酬能持续吗？风险有多高？投资前应该逻辑的思考以及找出这种投资的正确和合理性。

[ 本帖最后由 kinwing 于 2-10-2008 09:14 AM 编辑 ]

kinwing

从Business Times Online看到了这篇文章，觉得写得不错，所以在此向大家分享。虽然是以英文写的，希望大家都能看得明白。

Does long-term investing work when bourse swings wildly?
[email=By%20Noripah%20Kamso]By Noripah Kamso[/email]
Published: 2008/10/06

FUND managers, me included, are forever telling investors to expect returns over the long-term. Results may vary from year to year, but over the long-term you may expect about nine per cent to 12 per cent potential returns annually. We like to say things like: “In a bad year, the downside can be 10 per cent or more” and “In a good year the upside could be as high as 15 per cent or more”.

We also caution that risk and reward are inextricably intertwined, hence one should not expect to reap high returns without undergoing high risk and volatility.

However, we usually conclude, over the long-term it makes sense to invest in equities.

Now all that advice sounds good in theory but it’s hard to believe in it in reality when the market soars 26 per cent one year, then plunges 15 per cent another year, before swinging back up again. An investor wouldn’t be blamed for thinking, “This is madness! I don’t have the appetite for all these wild swings. What are those fund managers talking about?”

I hope, in this article, to shed some light on the issue and show that there is a method to the madness after all. Let’s look at how the stock market has performed since it started in 1976, as measured by the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI):

Interesting points to note from this data are (See chart):

# In its 31 years of existence, the KLCI has hit the magic nine per cent to 12 per cent return range exactly once

# In seven of those years, the KLCI lost more than 10 per cent

# In 14 of those years, the KLCI gained more than 15 per cent

# Therefore, in 21 out of its 31 years of existence, the KLCI has either really disappointed investors or made them extremely happy Going by this performance, it would seem as if fund managers don’t know what they’re talking about , because the stock market has either performed outstandingly well or very poorly.

It is true that in the majority of its years, the KLCI has been pretty volatile. That’s why we advise investing over the long term, to ride out the volatility that will happen from year to year.

If investors were to analyse the numbers from 1977 until 2007, they would be surprised to learn that the KLCI enjoyed annualised returns of 9.15 per cent per annum.

Well how about that? This figure lies within the magic range of nine per cent to 12 per cent annual returns. Analysis also shows that the KLCI has registered an average yearly return of 13.33 per cent since its inception.

It is very important that investors expect returns to fluctuate widely from year-toyear, and they should probably even welcome this volatility. It is the market’s erratic journey over the long term that enables investors to get the nine per cent to 12 per cent annualised returns range. This is why a fund manager can sound like a broken record sometimes because the ending of the story doesn’t change . The important thing to realise is this: in order to get to the end of the story one must begin it, by investing.

So, when is the best time to invest? In my view, it is in the investor’s best interest to invest as much and as close to the beginning of the year as possible. In fact, I would take that year-end bonus and just invest it straight away. And I’m not saying this just because I’m in the business of managing people’s funds.

The reason is very simple and clear: in 21 out of the last 31 years, the KLCI registered a positive return. Therefore funds invested at the beginning of every year would have yielded positive returns two out of every three years, or 67 per cent of the time.

Alternatively, investors should invest regularly whenever they can, either using the ringgit-cost averaging or value averaging methods, which I will explain in detail in a later article.

In conclusion, long term investing works because it rides out stock market volatilities to give the potential returns in the nine per cent to 12 per cent range. Investors should start investing to not miss out on these potentially attractive returns.

Datuk Noripah Kamso is the chief executive of CIMB-Principal Asset Management Bhd.



http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/Monday/OurPick/20081006010114/Article/index_html

[ 本帖最后由 kinwing 于 6-10-2008 01:18 PM 编辑 ]

8years

what a stupid article, all bullshit。
盲的都看得出。分析员十个来，十一个在骗人。
拿以前的光辉岁月来比较谁不会？？白痴。

看看如果我们那98年563点来到今天10年里，平均获利是多少？？？没有conpund的情况是7。7%

如果我们那99年812点来到今天10年里，平均获利是多少？？？我没有眼看，自己算算

kinwing

8年兄你这么说我就不大认同。毕竟这篇文章写出的是事实，其包含了1976的股市直到2007年，所呈现的都是统计数据事实。

假如此文章的作者如你所说要骗人的话，他大可以将研究资料缩短至1993年以呈现出股市最高点而刻意掩盖之后发生90年代末所发生的金融风暴。

相反的，我倒觉得8年兄你所给出这样的评语是主观地以当时最坏的股市回酬做出发点来（就是从1998年至今）来终结此文章。当然我并不是说你的评语不正确，只是认为你应该在看到这篇文章几年后才来做此结论（很可能今天的10年后股市的回酬已经达到了年均9%或10%，当然也有可能更低）。

总的来说，我认为此文章所展现的都是根据30多年的统计数据，并不是认为Noripah Kamso写得正确（不过如果统计数据能包含2008年的资料就更完美）。假设8年兄要对此30多年的统计数据做出反驳的话，至少也要有对等的数据以推翻根据以前统计所作出来的推论 。

[ 本帖最后由 kinwing 于 14-10-2008 01:56 PM 编辑 ]

kinwing

刚从星洲网站看了一则环球故事，是有关巴菲特自转《雪球》的一些故事。看了这些故事才知道原来巴菲特也是有烦恼的。

美國：股神的一生最錯2008-10-06 17:25

（美國）股神巴菲特縱橫金融市場，幾乎戰無不勝，但他付出的代價，卻是失去了一位自己心愛的賢內助。巴菲特與首任妻子蘇珊的關係一向耐人尋味，剛出版的股神“正版自傳”《雪球》The Snowball:Warren Buffett and the Business of Life，便詳細披露了巴菲特與蘇珊婚姻失敗的始末。

當蘇珊於2004年去世時，股神只能泣不成聲，子女們見到老父情緒崩潰，也只能叫他不要去媽媽的葬禮。對於當年自己負了太太，巴菲特確是懊悔不已，還形容那是“一生最大錯誤”。流行歌曲《愛得太遲》的歌詞，原來就是股神的寫照。

認識蘇珊的親朋，都覺得她是個隨和有彈性的細心體貼媽媽。結婚後不久，蘇珊已明白到，巴菲特把自己的工作，當成了是某種神聖的任務。但她仍極力想他抽點时间和精神在家人之上，例如定時去度假、到餐廳用膳。她有一句金句：“任何人都可以做父親（生父），但你應該做一個（關心子女的）Daddy。”但她這句話的對象，卻偏偏不是這樣的一種Daddy。

在餐桌上，巴菲特偶爾也會因為一些有趣事笑起來，但他絕少說話，常令人覺得他的腦袋心思不知道到了那裡。面對小子女們的旺盛精力，巴菲特索性就交由妻子去“處理”他們。總之，巴菲特的態度就是“家事別煩我”。

試過有一次，蘇珊出現腎感染，但她對自己腎臟有病的關心，還未及“不想打擾丈夫”的大，原來巴菲特對疾病與死亡都很敏感和很不自在，在往後的日子，蘇珊甚至把家人訓練到即使任何一人生病，大家都要把關注放在巴菲特身上，彷彿巴菲特才是病人和需要照料。

當時蘇珊正忙於為舉家搬新屋做準備，為人妻子，當然想把新屋裝修得亮麗一點。蘇珊粗略估算，裝修大約要花1萬5000美元，但當年的巴菲特，卻是個“很慳家”的人，寧願多留點錢去錢生錢。知道妻子想豪裝，巴菲特覺得如此裝修金額“幾乎是要了他的命”。妻子想花錢，老公想勒住，但兩人又不想對方不高興，兩人這種性格，結果就慢慢形成了一種“相敬如賓”的討價還價關係。

蘇珊善解人意，愈是有困難的人，她就愈肯幫忙。就算是對認識不深的人，她都會很用心聆聽。她在家中也扮演著這種“告解天使”的角色。隨著巴菲特事業步步高陞，子女們也漸漸長大，開始準備上中學，有朋友形容當時的蘇珊，就像一個沒有老公的單親媽媽。

巴菲特偶爾也會在家人要求下，出席子女的學校活動，又或給子女打球耍樂時玩一兩下，但他從沒主動跟子女打波。但蘇珊會教導孩子們，指父親有“特殊使命”，必須尊重。她告訴子女：“他只能是這麼多了。所有不要期望太多。”這句話，其實也適用於蘇珊與巴菲特的關係上。

蘇珊曾向一名友人形容，丈夫是“一座冰山”。她很積極參與社區事務，甚設法令自己很忙、總是被很多人包圍，這樣就可避免孤獨一個。巴菲特對妻子熱心社區工作是認同的，也為她的慷慨和領導能力感到自豪。但兩人關係日益疏離，隔膜也愈來愈多。（香港明報）


紅顏知己出現‧衝擊股神夫妻感情

70年代中，股神“紅顏知己”《華盛頓郵報》女報業家格雷厄姆（Katharine Graham）的出現，衝擊了股神與妻子的關係。

格雷厄姆60年代初接替亡夫出掌《華郵》集團。1973年因巴菲特大額入股《華郵》，時年59歲的格雷厄姆對這位46歲已婚投資天才“另眼相看”。巴菲特啟發她的財務觸覺，她就助股神提升時尚感覺。兩人不是“為公事”聯袂到處去，就是躲在格雷厄姆的別墅。

格雷厄姆甚至試過在派對上將家門匙擲給巴菲特，股神也在她的華盛頓寓所長期放置衣物，兩人關係撲朔迷離。對此蘇珊曾向閨中密友直言感到“憤怒和羞辱”，但她最後還是寫了一封信給格氏，“准許”她跟巴菲特來往。

有點心灰的蘇珊，其後跟一名網球教練似乎有過一段短暫的情愫。不久後，蘇珊喜歡上三藩市的藝術氛圍，於1977年“通知”巴菲特要搬到三藩市住，變相分居。不過蘇珊與巴菲特從沒有離婚，說巴菲特不愛這位妻子，恐怕也不是實情。

2004年，蘇西癌病不治。巴菲特望著死去的妻子只是不住飲泣。之後幾天，子女們都留在巴菲特家中，設法確保他不會單獨一人。每晚九時半，股神都會服安眠藥入睡。巴菲特也試過致電給數位朋友，但當對方拿起聽筒，股神的喉嚨卻像被封起，說不出話；他只能啜泣幾分鐘。當淚雨乾了，他也只能勉強說句“對不起”，之後就收線。

子女們發現，只要一提起蘇珊的名字，巴菲特就已落淚。隨著葬禮臨近，最後他的女兒只好向父親說：“你還是不要來（葬禮）了。”巴菲特也只能說句：“我來不了。”

跟《雪球》作者施羅德傾談時，巴菲特嘆謂蘇珊的離開“原可以避免”的，是自己給妻子太多理由選擇離開。“95%是我的錯……我就是對她不夠體貼，她總是無微不至地待我……那不應該發生的。”（香港明報）


內心盼受注視‧股神最怕去醫院

1940年，巴菲特10歲時，曾主動要求父親帶他參觀華爾街紐約交易所，作為生日禮物。在那裡，他見到了時任高盛總裁的溫伯格（Sidney Weinberg），並有機會與他交談。交談結束時，溫伯格摟住巴菲特問：“你想買哪隻股票啊？”估不到巴菲特日後最經常被人問的，就是這個問題。

巴菲特有時也很渴望被人注意。有次一名色情女明星在個人網頁上說，巴菲特是她偶像，竟然令巴菲特為此開心興奮了好一陣。

自傳作家施羅德說，巴菲特是個渴望被愛，無女人照顧就一籌莫展的男人。蘇珊最了解他這些，為他育養3個子女，打理他的一切衣食住行。當妻子捨他而去，“他曾漫無目的地在屋內徘徊，幾乎不能自行煮食和穿衣”。

巴菲特常希望妻子比他長壽，害怕失去她。他雖然忌諱死亡、怕去醫院，但在蘇珊治療期間，他都克服了個人弱點，盡可能了解癌症，每逢週末坐到病榻旁陪她追看連續劇；蘇珊只能飲流質食物，他也私下減少自己的飲食到每日只攝取1000卡路里。

施羅德形容，當蘇珊離世時，巴菲特的脆弱令人驚訝，“看著他哭泣、難過，切切的傷痛，真是極驚訝。”（香港明報）

星洲互動‧2008.10.06

http://opinions.sinchew-i.com/node/7273?page=2&tid=12

[ 本帖最后由 kinwing 于 14-10-2008 01:53 PM 编辑 ]

8years

我们在马来西亚不能用30年是因为以前是马来西亚进入工业化的时代，所以时代不同，成长不同，竞争力不同。

自己泡沫97年来到最高潮，马来西亚的工业化已经不能再成长，资讯业有不能发展，服务业也糟糕，所以拿来比较以后30年将会发生的事情是非常错误的。

这就好像拿80-90日本经济数据和股市数据来告诉人90-99年你会赚多少一样白痴。国家经济成长，股市成长都有它的因素存在，我们不能以为看历史就认为未来也会如此。就好比90-06年的transmile来认为未来的16年transmile会成长多少多少。

所以历史只是借景，而不是必然会同样发生，那就好比10年前喜欢你的女人不代表10年后还会喜欢你，不是吗？如果我们鼓励参考30年前马来西亚数据来决定未来30年马来西亚股市和经济将会发生的事情，那不是很好笑吗？

ss24

历史可能不尽相同，但历史偏向重复发生。。。。只是有偏差。。

因为人偏向重复犯回同样的错误。。。

8years

错误会同样发生，但是奇迹却不会同样发生

弹煮

天有不测之风云~ 一句通杀

悶蛋

朋友，不要偷懒
要更新组合资料了，
能不能附上平均价

lawhal83

哇。。
.ICAP - 17500股
3.LIONDIV - 400股
4.PARKSON - 5420股
TMI - 900股
10.PUBLIC CHINA SELECTED FUND - 13306.6 units

全部跌很多哦。。

kinwing

嗨，Cari朋友好久不见，希望大家的投资在经济不景气不会太难过。

我刚在上个月完成了CFA第一级的会考，在等成绩之际，便去游山玩水，而之前也为了准备准备CFA的考试，所以有一段时间没来Cari了。

至于我的投资组合的更新，我还在整理中并将会上载向大家分享。

我也在此向大家拜个早年，恭祝大家农历新年快乐，万事如意。

飞天价

原帖由 kinwing 于 28-9-2008 12:17 AM 发表
以下是我的更新投资组合:-
1.HAIO - 3536股
2.ICAP - 17500股
3.LIONDIV - 400股
4.PARKSON - 5420股
5.PADINI - 2900股
6.RCE - 24800股
7.SUPERMAX - 2400股
8.TONGHER - 4100股
9.TMI - 900股
10.PUBLI ...

奇怪，为什么买到那么“伶仃”的数量？ 400股！？水钱怎样算？

kinwing

Liondiv的400股是在还未与百盛(Parkson)分家之前以一块买进的。假设你有爬我之前的回帖，你就会知道我的Liondiv的400股是从之前的2000股卖剩的。后来Liondiv与Parkson分家后，我得到了Parkson的520股，不过Liondiv的价钱也被调整咯。

不过我第一次买股票时因不懂水钱的算法，的确曾经买过“伶仃”的数量，那时我买Shell的股份，以RM9每股买进100股，那时幸好水钱最少只收RM12而不是现在的RM40，所以当时缴了约占交易费的1%。其实我只需缴0.7%的水钱，不过因为交易费不超过RM1,800,所以需缴最低收额既RM12，有点冤枉。

[ 本帖最后由 kinwing 于 24-1-2009 10:51 AM 编辑 ]

SinIsSky

新年进步~
心想事成！！！
恭喜！恭喜！

IsaacL

牛年来个牛市哦。。。。。

kinwing

以下是我的投资组合的更新，由于闷蛋兄的提醒，所以我加入了投入成本和平均价，以及2008年所收到的股息：-

1.HAIO – 3,536股
（成本=RM10,164, 平均价=RM2.87, 2008年股息=RM1,049.92)
2.ICAP – 21,300股（成本=RM36,249,平均价=RM1.70, 2008年股息=RM0)
3.LIONDIV - 400股（成本=RM380,平均价=RM0.95, 2008年股息=RM4)
4.PARKSON - 14,120股（成本=RM52,146,平均价=RM3.69, 2008年股息=RM706)
5.PADINI - 2,900股（成本=RM8,258,平均价=RM2.85, 2008年股息=RM214.60)
6.RCE - 24,800股（成本=RM13,877.50,平均价=RM0.56, 2008年股息=RM186)
7.SUPERMAX - 2,400股（成本=RM4,442,平均价=RM1.85, 2008年股息=RM123.50)
8.TONGHER - 4,100股（成本=RM12,740,平均价=RM3.11, 2008年股息=RM570.72)
9.TMI - 900股（成本=RM5,805,平均价=RM6.45, 2008年股息=RM0)
10.PCSF – 13,306.6单位（成本=RM2,844.95,平均价=RM0.2138, 2008年股息=RM0)

所以我的总投资成本为RM148,886.45，并在2008年里总共受到的股息为RM2,854.74。现在投资组合的最新市价为RM115,638.50, 因此现在的纸上亏损为RM33,247.92。

SinIsSky

原帖由 kinwing 于 25-1-2009 01:24 PM 发表
以下是我的投资组合的更新，由于闷蛋兄的提醒，所以我加入了投入成本和平均价，以及2008年所收到的股息：-

1.HAIO – 3,536股
（成本=RM10,164, 平均价=RM2.87, 2008年股息=RM1,049.92)
2.ICAP – 21,300股（成 ...

我也面对纸上亏损，但没你那么多~
大概十千左右~

但要大家努力哦！！！

悶蛋

原帖由 kinwing 于 25-1-2009 01:24 PM 发表
4.PARKSON - 14,120股（成本=RM52,146,平均价=RM3.69, 2008年股息=RM706)

哦，kinwing兄，能不能说说为什么它会是你的重仓股？