投资快报 3

葉芬

那sunny仔是鲍鱼两箱???
roberto 发表于 19-1-2011 06:01 PM

呵呵 S/小弟，那可不是我Order的哦。。

grasslow

回复 2962# 葉芬


    芬姐，我也报效鸡精两打。

roberto

10 Overvalued Stocks Analyzed by Discounted Future Cash Flows


HDY – Hyper Dynamics trades for 37X book value per share, and has no earnings currently. Valued at $726MM, HDY shares are up because of their land lease deal with Guinea which covers over 10,000 square miles. HDY will likely strike oil and become a larger company in the future, but at today’s prices these potential gains may already be priced into the stock.

OPEN – Opentable.com is trading at 158X earnings, 73X forward earnings, and boasts 44% sales growth.  If investors assume that OPEN will grow EPS of $.51 at a 50% growth rate over five years with growth of 1% thereafter, OPEN is currently worth only $30 per share. Open has a PEG ratio of around 2, meaning my 50% earnings growth rate is likely more conservative than most Wall Street analysis. Growth in earnings at a higher than 50% rate would better justify current prices.

LULU – Lululemon.com trades at 54X trailing earnings, 39X forward earnings, a price to sales of 9X, and a price to book value of 15.83. LULU makes yoga apparel, and while I like the clothing and lifestyle, the company must grow earnings at approximately 47% per year using our DCF model to justify its current valuation.

CRM – Salesforce.com trades for 262 times trailing twelve month earnings. If we assume CRM will earn $1 next year (up from $.55 this year), and can grow earnings at 50% per year for the next five years, and 1% yearly thereafter, the stock from a DCF perspective is worth $59.00, according to our model. This makes it the most overvalued stock in this list.

CMG – Chipotle Mexican Grill trades for 45X TTM earnings and 9.55X book value. If Chipotle can grow EPS of $5.17 at 30% per year for the next five years and 1% thereafter, CMG is worth $157 per share according to our DCF model.

AMZN – Amazon.com trades for 77.5X earnings on EPS of $2.75 per share. IF AMZN can grow earnings at 40% per year for the next five years, and grows at 1% thereafter, AMZN is worth $117 per share. With the company trading at “just” 2.75X sales and a 2.71 PEG ratio, AMZN will need to aggressively build out their higher margin cloud computing segment just to maintain its current stock price.

NFLX – Netflix trades at a whopping 73.3 times earnings of $2.64 per share. One aspect of NFLX that makes it a bit cheaper than it appears at first are their large cash flows from operating activities, which make this a tough short. NFLX will have to grow earnings by 50% per year in each of the next five years and grow earnings at 1% per year thereafter to maintain its current stock price. Could it happen? I think it's a risky bet, but stranger things have happened.

APKT – Acme Packet, another cloud firm, is a bit cheaper than CRM on earnings with a 59X forward P/E ratio, but more expensive on sales, with a 19X price to sales ratio. If APKT earns $1 next year and continues to grow at 50% over the next five years with a 1% terminal growth rate, APKT is worth $59 per share – which is just a buck below the current stock price, making it a better bargain than CRM on earnings. The numbers don’t always tell the whole story, and CRM is the market leader in the cloud.

SPG – Simon Property Group is a REIT that trades at 59X earnings (although REITs pay out cash flows as dividends) and sports a 3.2% yield. At 6X book value, we have no real way to value their properties as they were booked at cost a long time ago, but we can assume that free cash flow of around 1.3 billion should be worth no more than a 20X multiple to these cash flows, or a 10% discount or so from current prices. SPG is not glaringly overvalued, but if the stock rises 30% or more without a similar gain in free cash flow, the stock will be quite expensive.

IWM – The iShares Russell 2000 trades at over 27X earnings and over 3.47X book value. These are multiples generally found at market tops, or at least in periods of irrational exuberance. Investors putting capital to work at these levels in the IWM should read my article “20 statistically cheap stocks worth researching further” for investments that will grow and not destroy capital investment over time.

So there you have it, 10 highly overvalued stocks that might be used as hedges against long positions when a bear market erupts. Until a bear emerges, selling near month at the money put options against a short position, or buying put spreads on these issues, is likely the most conservative path to gains ahead, as overheated markets can remain overheated longer than most investors imagine.
Here is a link to my favorite DCF site.


About the author:     Nicholas Southwick Levis  
Nick Levis is a money manager with over twelve years experience in financial markets. Levis's hedge fund NSL Capital Management, LLC prefers deep value investments, Garp, Magic Formula names, and stocks below NCAV and/or below tangible book value. Hedging risk by shorting overpriced names or...

巨大的西瓜

呵呵 S/小弟，那可不是我Order的哦。。
葉芬 发表于 19-1-2011 07:25 PM

    我也报效.. 报效鲍鱼,鱼翅,天狗翅. or.... 任pick。

乐静思

我也报效.. 报效鲍鱼,鱼翅,天狗翅. or.... 任pick。
巨大的西瓜 发表于 19-1-2011 08:22 PM

什么翅都不要，女人最好是燕窝，芬姐你说是不是？

葉芬

呵呵 謝謝大家的好意。。

我只是說說笑吧了。。 別當真。。

葉芬

HDY 還會回調，等再下些才買回。

SSN Pre-Market 跌了0.12 Last Done 2.15

bibubibu700

回复 2968# 葉芬


   芬姐，ssn pre-market跌好多 会是一个好时机吗？ 还是出了什么新闻？

葉芬

回复  葉芬


   芬姐，ssn pre-market跌好多 会是一个好时机吗？ 还是出了什么新闻？
bibubibu700 发表于 19-1-2011 10:00 PM

SSN沒有出消息。。。今天的AUS-SSN還起了18%多。

有很多因素，有可能是Shorter特地弄她下，讓大家怕，然後丟票。他們就賺到了。
就如 HDY 那樣。

還未買到的人，今天可能有機會。

乐静思

HDY 還會回調，等再下些才買回。

SSN Pre-Market 跌了0.12  Last Done 2.15
葉芬 发表于 19-1-2011 09:42 PM

SSN Pre-Market 跌了0.21  Last Done 2.06

葉芬

SSN Pre-Market 跌了0.21  Last Done 2.06
乐静思 发表于 19-1-2011 10:06 PM

機會來啦。。。

一下子就跳回2.14 了

bibubibu700

回复 2970# 葉芬


   哦哦，预祝今晚SSN更上一层楼

乐静思

機會來啦。。。

一下子就跳回2.14 了
葉芬 发表于 19-1-2011 10:10 PM

怎么那么快，我还没买呢。。

葉芬

今晚的SHZ稀土股票大減價。


+++++++++++++++++

Mini Dow Jones Indus.-$5 Mar 11

11,786.00 9:11AM EST

25.00 (0.21%)

葉芬

有人買到便宜貨嗎？

bibubibu700

回复 2976# 葉芬


   我买到2.10

LeeCo

芬姐，你觉得我应该在现在的成交价买呢还是可以再等等更低价呢？

bibubibu700

hdy上上下下.. 心脏不好承受不住
给我一个下车的机会..

葉芬

回复  葉芬


   我买到2.10
bibubibu700 发表于 19-1-2011 10:56 PM

不錯的價錢。

葉芬

芬姐，你觉得我应该在现在的成交价买呢还是可以再等等更低价呢？
LeeCo 发表于 19-1-2011 10:57 PM

那要問你自己。。你是投機還是投資？

要是投資2.1多是OK的。
不然就等等看會跌到2元嗎。