【~~百万千万梦想~~个人专区】 朝着我那未完成的百万千万梦想前进〉〉

百万千万梦想

同行競爭財測大砍9%‧成功多多股息料遜預期
大馬財經 2010-02-12 18:02
（吉隆坡）萬能（Magnum）4D積寶持續增添動力，導致成功多多（BJ TOTO，1562，主板貿服組）的樂透積寶黯然失色，除2010與2011財政年盈利預測遭分析員大砍高達9%外，更料受到單層稅制股息的推行而拖累股息“直直落”。

馬銀行研究指出，對手銷售強勁且博彩業開放未見利好下，2010與2011財政年營業額每年萎縮4%，盈利預測則萎縮高達9%。


在盈利“岌岌可危”下，加上明年實行的單層股息制，原本大方的股息或只達23仙，而不是一般預估的31仙。

截至今年1月杪，成功多多3個月的樂透銷售較2009財政年第二季的高峰期暴挫44%，每次平均開彩銷售約只有119萬令吉，回返2007年中水平；反觀競爭對手萬能4D積寶的銷售卻創下300萬令吉紀錄。銷售放緩歸咎於積寶拖太久，且份額不大，難引起購興。

最近，銷售已從2005年的巔峰85萬9000下跌至31萬3000令吉。

馬銀行研究認為，新一年的20次特別開彩比之前欠缺吸引力，主要是這間公司與其他業者一起推出。

此外，受到2007年金融法令影響，公司的股息派發須以現有企業稅制預扣稅務，即只能以108條會計準則下的餘額派發股息（投資者稍後可向政府申請索回）。

由於成功多多的“大方派息”，已悉數用盡第108條會計準則的餘額，且也大幅耗掉免稅餘額。不過，市場仍未反映成功多多即將邁向“單層”稅率的事實，一般預估仍以派息毛額為主。

在新單層派息系統下，儘管市場估計2011財政年股息達31仙，相等於93%派息率，惟在考量25%的預扣稅下，23仙的“淨股息”意味著派息率只達70%，不如預期的75%。

馬銀行研究預見，2010至2012財政年股息僅23仙，相等於每股盈利預測的派息率85%與淨週息率5.5%。

獲越南博彩執照
立即效應不大

儘管成功多多有望在近期獲得越南的博彩執照，以在越南市場大展拳腳，馬銀行研究不認為這將成為業務節節上升的催化劑，主要是這間公司持股權只有20%。

該行認為，這項計劃帶來的正面立即影響將微不足道，若任何影響，可能是設立基建的成本。

成功多多在菲律賓也有業務，但僅貢獻淨利約10%。一般上，拓展海外業務的管理合約難有利可圖，因為在非“業主”下，淨賺幅或低至2至3%，而不是10%。

另外，大馬預期的賽會博彩雖可能讓成功多多受惠，惟馬銀行研究不排除下一次的博彩監管開放將惠及對手丹絨（TANJONG,2267,主板貿服組），主要是丹絨目前是唯一一家沒有積寶遊戲的測字公司。

馬銀行研究維持“賣出”評級與目標價4令吉零5仙。

湖俊

是的，single tier dividend 强制在2013年后实行，到时候其实对我们这些小股民不划算，白白跟着被扣税，变成拿少去。

目前还有很多人对那些“高股息”股是以往年的gross DPS来衡量，若真的他们提早派光s108的balance，或者等到全面实行single tier的时候，那个DPS就至少比以往少去25%以上。

百万千万梦想

祝大家新年发大财，万能千万Jackpot到你家。。。。

今天我看回Magnum Jackpot 的奖金结构，如果Magnum Jackpot累计到RM3千万时，那时真的是会全民疯狂追Magnum Jackpot，为什么呢？因为当Magnum Jackpot 1奖金累计到RM3千万以上时，你只要击中Magnum Jackpot 2，你也会有最少RM1千万进袋 （RM3千万以上 - RM2千万保留给Magnum Jackpot 1 = 最少RM1千万给Magnum Jackpot 2 ）。。。。我并不是鼓励人人去买万字赌博，而只是看到分享Magnum Jackpot 的奖金结构的非凡魅力而已，所以MPHB的业绩我很期待期待dee......

看下图Magnum Jackpot 的奖金结构，注意红色的字体。。。

Prize Structure Prize Pre-Requisites for Win Prize Money Maximum Prize Payout 1st Prize * Jackpot 1 When one of the 4D numbers in the chosen pair matches one of the Top 3 prizes, i.e. either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd prize, and the other 4D number from the same pair matches one of the two (2) remaining Top (3) prizes, For example, if the 1st 4D number in the chosen pair matches the 1st Prize, the 2nd 4D number from the same pair must match either the 2nd or the 3rd prize. Jackpot 1 (with an upfront RM2,000,000) NO LIMIT Note: Cascading to Jackpot 2 starts whenever: 1. Jackpot 1 exceeds RM30 million, and 2. there is no winner for Jackpot 1, and 3. there are 1 or more winners for Jackpot 2 2nd Prize * Jackpot 2 When one of the 4D numbers in the chosen pair matches one of the Top 3 prizes, i.e. either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd prize, and the other 4D number from the same pair matches one of the ten (10) Special prizes, For example, if the 1st 4D number in the chosen pair matches the 3rd Prize, the 2nd 4D number from the same pair must match either one of the ten (10) Special prizes. Jackpot 2 (with a minimum of RM100,000) NO LIMIT Note: Cascading from Jackpot 1 starts whenever: 1. Jackpot 1 exceeds RM30 million, and 2. there is no winner for Jackpot 1, and 3. there are 1 or more winners for Jackpot 2 3rd Prize When any one of the 4D numbers in your chosen pair matches either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd prize, RM 168 for every RM2 bet RM 10 million 4th Prize When any one of the 4D numbers in your chosen pair matches any one of the ten (10) Special prizes. RM 68 for every RM2 bet RM 10 million 5th Prize Where only 1 of the pair of selected 4D numbers matches any one of the Consolation prizes RM28 for every RM2 bet RM 10 million Jackpot 1 is 55% of the Prize Pool plus upfront RM2 million and any snowball amount brought forward from previous draws. Jackpot 2 is 10% of the Prize Pool plus any snowballed amount brought forward from previous draws with a minimum guaranteed amount of RM100,000. Note : The Prize Pool is equal to 55% of the Total Sales Collection, which is the amount of bets made on each draw. If there is more than one winner for Jackpot 1, the Jackpot 1 prize will then be divided amongst the winners based solely on their respective bet amounts. Each unit bet of RM2 is entitled to one (1) share of the jackpot. If there is more than one winner for Jackpot 2, the Jackpot 2 prize will be divided amongst the winners in direct proportion to their respective number of prizes won in that category and the bet amounts. For the 3rd, 4th and 5th Prize, if the total payout in any of the categories exceeds RM10 million then the maximum payout of RM10 million shall be shared amongst all the winners in that category in direct proportion to their respective number of prizes won in that category and the bet amounts.

Cascading of Jackpot 1 Prize To make this even more exciting for you, we have introduced this new feature whereby we greatly increase the Jackpot 2 amount by transferring into it part of the Jackpot 1 amount when Jackpot 1 grows to a certain size! What follows describes how Cascading works. In any particular draw where Jackpot 1 is greater than RM30 million and is still not won and, during that same draw, Jackpot 2 has one or more winners, the amount equivalent to Jackpot 1 minus RM20 million will be Cascaded and Added to the Jackpot 2 prize money to be distributed to and shared by all those Jackpot 2 winners. In such a Cascading scenario, winners of Jackpot 2 will share a hugely increased Jackpot 2 equivalent to the sum of the cascaded portion of Jackpot 1 and the original Jackpot 2. When there are 2 or more winners, this attractive amount will be divided amongst all the Jackpot 2 winners in accordance with their respective shares of the Jackpot 2. However, if there are also no winners for Jackpot 2 in that particular draw, then Cascading will not take place and Jackpot 1 will continue to grow as usual beyond RM30 million. So long as Jackpot 1 stays above RM30 million, there will potentially be a Cascade. Therefore, all players stand a chance to win the hugely increased Jackpot 2 that is always greater than RM10 million! What's more, it's 10 times easier to win Jackpot 2 when compared to winning Jackpot 1! With this cascading of the prize money of Jackpot 1 into Jackpot 2's, it becomes even easier to win big! That's MILLIONS of Ringgits to be won!! Your dreams can indeed come true!

slutodomo

回复 230# 百万千万梦想

这个我赞同，不过如果比较谁较EFFICIENT,我还是喜欢HARTALEGA,ROA,ROE都超级美，在手套股中好像还没看到比它更加厉害的

百万千万梦想

回复  百万千万梦想

这个我赞同，不过如果比较谁较EFFICIENT,我还是喜欢HARTALEGA,ROA,ROE都超级美，在 ...
slutodomo 发表于 13-2-2010 11:09 PM

    HARTA这个我也赞同。。。hehe...我也是有买看好HARTA的。。。ROA,ROE都超级美。。
现在我暂时卖掉HARTA，全力买进Supermx,因为它的DY，PE。。。未来HARTA还是我的心头爱之一。。谢了

湖俊

原来买jackpot的，若两个字中一个头奖也是拿不到钱的啊。。要另外买那种对字的才可以哦。

fighter00101

楼主已经开番了 。。

小弟觉得在2009年买的蓝筹持有到现在的话 大部分都应该有70% 以上的盈利

现在综指1250 小弟觉得会下调

百万千万梦想

原来买jackpot的，若两个字中一个头奖也是拿不到钱的啊。。要另外买那种对字的才可以哦。
湖俊 发表于 14-2-2010 01:48 AM

   
有钱啦。。。

When any one of the 4D numbers in your chosen pair matches either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd prize,

RM 168 for every RM2 bet

peng01

http://www.btimes.com.my/articles/maxsup/Article/

2009 performance will come in much better than what ithas committed to investors, says managing director Datuk Seri StanleyThaiSupermax Corp Bhd (7106)will soon report last year's net profit that exceed the revised targetof RM117 million, or 44 sen per share, as glove makers enjoy a briskbusiness on global supply shortage.

The world's second largestrubber glove maker is scheduled to report fiscal 2009 earnings onFebruary 22 and the full-year performance will come in much better thanwhat it has committed to investors, managing director Datuk SeriStanley Thai said.

"We have forecast 27 sen earnings per shareat the start of last year and revised it to 44 sen after the H1N1outbreak and the subsequent spike in demand," Thai told Business Timesin an interview at its Sungai Buloh headquarters.

  Theviral outbreak of influenza A pandemic in the middle of last year hasbeen fuelling strong demand for rubber gloves used by doctors andnurses.
  "But we have completed the year with earnings better than 44 sen," Thai said.

This means investors will probably get a special dividend on top of thecompany's regular dividend policy of returning 20 per cent of annualnet profit.

Last October, Thai had pledged to distribute anyextra earnings above the projected RM117 million net profit in itsfirst ever special dividend after third-quarter net profit almosttripled.

Supermax shares have risen 8.5 per cent this yearafter a 490 per cent surge last year. The stock closed at RM5.12 lastFriday, up 19 sen, or 3.9 per cent.

  In contrast, the benchmark FTSE Kuala Lumpur Composite Index has lost 1.5 per cent so far this year.

Despite the good run last year, rubber glove makers are still lookingat some bullish years ahead as the tight supply cannot keep up with thehigh demand even as manufacturers are ramping up production and boostedcapacity.

"We are in a quite serious oversold position, theorder for some of our hot products can now last till July. A longdelivery time is also not good, but that's what the industry isfacing," Thai said.

Since 2007, new capacity had come on streamslower than the growth in consumption, which has been expanding at anannual rate of 8 per cent to 10 per cent, or 10 billion gloves eachyear, even without the unusual event like a pandemic outbreak.

With additional demand spurred by the H1N1 flu, it is estimated thatthe world may use 36 billion more gloves this year and the next, whilethe industry can only churn out 22 billion.

"Will there be aglut soon since everyone is trying to ramp up? The answer is no," Thaisaid. There are also constraints to capacity expansion. Thegovernment's potential move to freeze intake of foreign labour and theshort supply of natural gas, which is used to power glove factories,means manufacturers can't add as much capacity as they like.

  The restricted growth has thus led to bigger profit margin in the last few quarters, Thai said.

"The industry didn't see too much top line growth last year despitethat H1N1 has boosted demand, you'll see there wasn't a jump in ourexport volume. It only benefitted margins."

Margins will likelystay firm this year for the industry in general and for Supermax inparticular, Thai said, as the company also earns from distributinggloves under its own brands.

Earnings this year will bebuoyed by the additional capacity from its new Meru plant in Klang, tobe operational in phases from March onwards. It is expected to boostits output by a third to 12.7 billion pieces this year.

百万千万梦想

2009 performance will come in much better than what ithas committed to investors, says managing  ...
peng01 发表于 17-2-2010 12:56 AM

    跟我期待的一样。。。。

百万千万梦想

今天买进MPHB 2000 units RM1.86。。。。 supermax RM5.50 now...

百万千万梦想

Magnum Jackpot 1 彩金 RM25,882,403.52
今天Jackpot 2  彩金RM580,934.86 Won! 给人赢去了，PENANG人。。。呜呜呜

Date	Draw ID	Jackpot	Number of Winner(s)	Amount (RM)	Agency
17.2.2010 (WED)	528/10	2	1	580,934.86	- Bkt. Mertajam 1, Penang

Magnum Jackpot 的彩金结构如下：
First Prize : Jackpot 1
2nd Prize : Jackpot 2
3nd Prize:When any one of the 4D numbers in your chosen pair matches either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd prize...奖金      RM168
4nd Prize:When any one of the 4D numbers in your chosen pair matches any one of the ten (10) Special prizes.奖金 RM68
5nd Prize:Where only 1 of the pair of selected 4D numbers matches any one of the Consolation prizes 。奖金RM28

为何这么多uncle aunty 这么喜欢买Magnum Jackpot?? 因为你随便中一个字也有奖金嘛，虽然3,4,5nd奖金不多，但优胜于无。。这就是MAGNUM JACKPOT的谜思为何自从一推出它的营业额就超过BJTOTO 全部Jackpot加起来的总合了。。。

话还没讲完，今天Jackpot 2 又给人中去了，现在Jackpot 1 RM25,882,403.52。。

Jackpot 1 还有三个开彩日如果还没有人中的话，Jackpot 1 就有RM3千万了，那时Jackpot 2彩池就有RM1千万了。。

当Jackpot 2彩池有RM1千万的时候，那时Magnum Jackpot 2的魅力是所有BJTOTO 的Jackpot 加起来都不能抵抗的。。。买MAGNUM的人只会越来越多。。。要在一天里中头二三奖和特别安慰奖赢Jackpot 2是可能的，你问万字黑市庄家就知道了（没几期就有人中的）

那时就是Show Time for Magnum Jackpot，全马也疯狂.....所以MPHB的季报将会是辉煌的,现在就可以预见了。。。

百万千万梦想

牛年2009，全年总盈利 RM71，626
虎年2010，待加油。。。至今盈利 RM79,128。。

我的长期投资组合截至17-FEB-2010 如下：

	Stock	Qty	Avg Price (RM)	*Qty	Market Price (RM)	Market Value	Unrealized P&(L) (RM)
	MAYBULK	10,000	2.939116	0	3.090000	30,900.00	1,508.84
	SUPERMX	25,000	5.063893	0	5.500000	137,500.00	10,902.68
Grand Total:						168,400.00	12,411.52

	Stock	Qty	Avg Price (RM)	*Qty	Market Price (RM)	Market Value	Unrealized P&(L) (RM)
	MPHB	24,000	1.833393	0	1.860000	44,640.00	638.58
	SUPERMX	22,000	2.592379	0	5.500000	121,000.00	63,967.66
Grand Total:						165,640.00	64,606.24

总资本：RM250，000
股票价值：RM334,040
现金：RM66,714
盈亏：RM150,754

sin1985

如你所愿，magnum爆棚了。刚才5.30pm去排队买字，隔壁toto和damacai的人数加起来都不到magnum的一半。。。

百万千万梦想

Supermax CEO的诚意还不错嘛。。

我今天email 问supermx关于tresury share distributeed as special dividen的事，想不到还是CEO Stanley Thai亲自这么快就回我了。。哈哈。。

MARCH 会给我们as Bonus Issue??

DATO SERI Stanley Thai 的reply如下：


The Gain from Sale of Treasury Shares is capitalized in the Capital Reserve in Share Premium Account as one of the Balance Sheet items.

It would be distributed to Shareholders in the form of Bonus Issue among others.

The company would make the announcement via Investment Banker once the IB is appointed in early March,2010

Thank you



Dato'Seri Stanley Thai
Group Managing Director
Supermax Corporation
Text & Cell: +1630 696 1588
www.supergloves.com

Sent via BlackBerry from T-Mobile

百万千万梦想

牛年2009，全年总盈利 RM71，626
虎年2010，待加油 。。。至今盈利 RM92,287。。

我的长期投资组合截至17-FEB-2010 如下：

	Stock	Qty	Avg Price (RM)	*Qty	Market Price (RM)	Market Value	Unrealized P&(L) (RM)
	MAYBULK	5,000	3.084868	0	3.080000	15,400.00	(24.34)
	MPHB	35,000	1.844608	0	1.860000	65,100.00	538.73
	SUPERMX	22,000	2.592379	0	5.750000	126,500.00	69,467.66
Grand Total:						207,000.00	69,982.05

	Stock	Qty	Avg Price (RM)	*Qty	Market Price (RM)	Market Value	Unrealized P&(L) (RM)
	MAYBULK	15,600	2.991946	0	3.080000	48,048.00	1,373.64
	SUPERMX	33,000	5.179672	0	5.750000	189,750.00	18,820.83
Grand Total:						237,798.00	20,194.47

总资本：RM320,000
股票价值：RM444,798
现金：RM39,115
盈亏：RM163,913

百万千万梦想

牛年2009，全年总盈利 RM71，626
虎年2010，待加油 。。。至今盈利 RM104,757。。

我的长期投资组合截至23-FEB-2010 如下：

	Stock	Qty	Avg Price (RM)	*Qty	Market Price (RM)	Market Value	Unrealized P&(L) (RM)
	MAYBULK	15,600	2.991946	0	3.120000	48,672.00	1,997.64
	SUPERMX	33,000	5.179672	0	5.910000	195,030.00	24,100.83
Grand Total:						243,702.00	26,098.47

	Stock	Qty	Avg Price (RM)	*Qty	Market Price (RM)	Market Value	Unrealized P&(L) (RM)
	MAYBULK	5,000	3.084868	0	3.120000	15,600.00	175.66
	MPHB	53,200	1.866376	0	1.930000	102,676.00	3,384.78
	SUPERMX	22,000	2.592379	0	5.910000	130,020.00	72,987.66
Grand Total:						248,296.00	76,548.10

总资本：RM320,000
股票价值：RM491,998
现金：RM4,385
盈亏：RM176,383

湖俊

哇，一下丢一百粒下去。

百万千万梦想

哇，一下丢一百粒下去。
湖俊 发表于 25-2-2010 12:49 AM

    什么股？？？MPHB 我是从1.7X买到1.9X 的。。。越买越多。。。

湖俊

希望真的有好消息来刺激啦。祝福你