股市要调整了

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 1-6-2009 12:06 PM 发表


那是其中一个可能性

然后中国会不会买美国bond是另一个，美元会跌多凶，inflation 又是另一个

可是, 中國似乎老在買美國的BOND, $$$ 太多了没地方花 ?

DEFLATION 看來似乎呼之欲出.

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 1-6-2009 12:11 PM 发表


其实很容易判断

主要是看风险和回酬的对比

1) 就算经济年尾会复苏，现在已经涨过头，1-2月内会盘整

2）如果不幸爆炸，下跌空间有多高？

1. 其实到現在我还看不出经済有好转的現象. 現在的反彈是熊市的反彈吧.
2. 爆炸? 这個很難讲. DJ < 6300 ?   只有笨蛋才去预测MARKET.

[ 本帖最后由 alpinev18 于 1-6-2009 01:57 PM 编辑 ]

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 1-6-2009 01:51 PM 发表


可是, 中國似乎老在買美國的BOND, $$$ 太多了没地方花 ?

DEFLATION 看來似乎呼之欲出.

中国买的是短期bond, 又用这些bond来买commodities

这是高招

最后$都转移去commodities去，这些工业化所必需用到的

比美元稳当得多

可以这么说，大家都认为2年内美国不会倒，5-10年就没人能打保单

只要美元失去通用货币的地位，就bye bye 了

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 1-6-2009 01:43 PM 发表
Bailout NationU.S. Vows To Be Hands-Off Owner Of GMJoann Muller and Brian Wingfield, 05.31.09, 10:19 PM EDT Automaker to get $30 billion in bankruptcy financing from government, which will receive 60% ...

看來股市完全没有受GM 的破产的影响.

DJM09.CBT	Dow Jones Indus. Jun 09	8,488.00 May 29	0.00 (0.00%)	Chart
NVU09.CME	E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Sep 09	1,946.75 4:26am ET	0.00 (0.00%)	Chart
ESM09.CME	E-Mini S& 500 Jun 09	933.25 4:49am ET	15.25 (1.66%)	Chart
YMM09.CBT	Mini Dow Jones Indus.-$5 Jun 09	8,605.00 4:49am ET	117.00 (1.38%)	Chart
NQM09.CME	Nasdaq 100 Jun 09	1,451.50 4:48am ET	16.00 (1.11%)	Chart
SPM09.CME	S& 500 Jun 09	933.20 4:47am ET	15.10 (1.64%)	Chart

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 1-6-2009 05:07 PM 发表 看來股市完全没有受GM 的破产的影响. DJM09.CBTDow Jones Indus. Jun 098,488.00 May 290.00 (0.00%)ChartNVU09.CMEE-Mini Nasdaq 100 Sep 091,946.75 4:26am ET0.00 (0.00%)ChartESM09.CMEE-Mi ...

我原本以为GM会被救，然后股市发动最后一波涨潮
那里知道GM破产，股市还炒到更高
太神奇了

tanhy

Freddie Mac Announces $30B Tender Of Near-Term Debt


[size=1.3em]Freddie Mac (FRE) on Monday announced plans to repurchase up to $30 billion of debt securities coming due in the next 15 months as the mortgage giant continues to deal with surging loan losses.
[size=1.3em]The debt currently has $69.9 billion in principal outstanding. The tender offer expires at 5 p.m., EDT, Friday.
[size=1.3em]Freddie last month reported a loss of $9.85 billion for the first quarter as mortgage-defaults costs mount and said it will need another $6.1 billion of capital from the Treasury Department.
[size=1.3em]The company didn't say Monday in a statement why it was making the offering and from where the funds would come. A company spokesman wasn't available to comment.
[size=1.3em]Federal regulators seized control of Freddie and larger peer Fannie Mae (FNM), the two main providers of funds for U.S. home mortgages, in September as growing losses ate through their thin layers of capital. The Treasury has agreed to provide as much as $200 billion of capital apiece to Fannie and Freddie by purchasing preferred stock paying 10% dividends. With its latest request, that would bring Freddie's total to about $51 billion.
[size=1.3em]
[size=1.3em]呵呵，这则新闻在很小的版位看到
[size=1.3em]中国人说“好事不出门，坏事传千里”
[size=1.3em]美国人和中国的哲学是倒转
[size=1.3em]300亿大洋不知道那里来，因该也是印出来
[size=1.3em]

tanhy

盖特纳北大演讲催中国刺激内需 承诺削减赤字

http://www.sina.com.cn  2009年06月02日 07:30  东方早报

　　东方早报记者 马毅达 张颖
　　“中国持有的美元金融资产非常安全。”
　　尽管引起台下一片笑声，但美国财政部长盖特纳昨天回答这一问题时没有丝毫迟疑。在北京大学发表完演讲后，一名学生向他提问中国在美国的投资是否安全，事实上，这也是目前中国领导人最关心的问题。
　　中国是最大的美国国债持有国。一旦美元贬值并导致大宗商品价格上扬，中国将处在一种两难境地。如果人民币不跟随美元贬值，中国的外贸压力将大大增加；如果人民币跟随美元贬值，中国将面临输入性通胀的风险。
　　“我们有世界上流动性最强的无风险资产市场。随着时间推移，我们承诺将预算赤字削减至可持续的水平。我们仍坚信强势美元。我们确信将改革金融系统，以使我们拥有持久信心。”盖特纳不忘加上一连串解释。不过，这样的例行公事似的回答没有让北大学生满意。有学生就想问接着他：如果你是中国的财长，你是中国的政府，你会不会买美国的国债。
　　巧合的是，昨天有媒体报道称，现任央行副行长易纲可能接替胡晓炼出掌国家外汇管理局。
　　昨天下午，中国国务院副总理王岐山在会见盖特纳时也表示，中方关注在美投资，并希望了解当前美国经济的恢复状况。
　　中国现代国际关系研究院世界经济研究所所长陈凤英昨天向早报记者表示，对美国来说，最好的办法就是不负责任，美元降10%，其对外支付就能减少2万亿，这个比例非常明显。所以中国政府必须要在战略与经济对话中跟美国谈投资安全的问题。“我们持有你的国债，你就必须保证债务的安全。只有这样，你需要我购买时，我们才会投资。”


美国财长变成了小丑？首要任务是提供欢乐给北大学生？

tanhy

China’s Yu Says U.S. Shouldn’t Be Complacent About Treasuries


By Bloomberg News

June 2 (Bloomberg) -- China’s former central bank adviser
[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Yu+Yongding&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Yu Yongding[/url]
will meet Treasury Secretary
[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Timothy+Geithner&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Timothy Geithner[/url]
today and tell him the U.S. shouldn’t be complacent about China continuing to buy Treasuries.
“I wish to tell the U.S. government: ‘Don’t be complacent and think there isn’t any alternative for China to buy your bills and bonds’,’’ Yu said in an interview yesterday. “The euro is an alternative. And there are lots of raw materials we can still buy.’’ Yu is scheduled to meet Geithner at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Beijing today.
China is the biggest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries with $768 billion at the end of the first quarter. Premier
[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Wen%0AJiabao&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Wen Jiabao[/url]
in March called for the U.S. “to guarantee the safety of China’s assets” and central bank Governor
[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Zhou+Xiaochuan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Zhou Xiaochuan[/url]
has proposed a new global currency to reduce reliance on the dollar.
China is concerned that the U.S.’s spending and planned
record
fiscal deficit will eventually lead to inflation and a loss of confidence in the dollar, undermining the value of China’s Treasury holdings, Yu said.
The deficit is projected to reach $1.75 trillion in the year ending Sept. 30 from last year’s $455 billion shortfall, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
The Obama administration aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to “roughly” 3 percent of gross domestic product from a projected 12.9 percent this year, Geithner said in Beijing yesterday.
Strong Dollar
The treasury secretary, on a two-day visit to the Chinese capital, said that China’s investments in U.S. financial assets are very safe, and that the Obama administration is committed to a strong dollar.
The U.S. should take China’s interests into consideration “so that your own interest can be protected,’’ Yu said. “You should not try to inflate away your debt burden.” China could still diversify some of its Treasury holdings into euros or commodities, Yu added.
“Yes, some people say the euro is very weak,’’ Yu said. “Okay, weak is good, we’ll buy very cheap.’’
The best outcome for China would still be to negotiate with the U.S. and reach agreement on its Treasury holdings, Yu said. “The borrower should keep their promises,” he added. “The U.S. should be a responsible country.”

中国又发出严厉的警告

alpinev18

TAN 大大, STI > 2400 了.

lonely2

最近变了牛市
一直升 =＿=

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 2-6-2009 09:24 AM 发表
TAN 大大, STI > 2400 了.

开了户口，放了钱
问题是笨蛋Philip还没有完成开户口的process
只能看:@

没关系，Citi还没拿钱，再等一会

tanhy

很多小户都不信牛市来了，一只看
小心！不要忍不住一进就被套！

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 2-6-2009 09:45 AM 发表
很多小户都不信牛市来了，一只看
小心！不要忍不住一进就被套！

我就是其中一個小戶.

这股市一直在LURE我... 定力要够.

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 2-6-2009 09:45 AM 发表
很多小户都不信牛市来了，一只看
小心！不要忍不住一进就被套！

我就是其中一個小戶.

这股市一直在LURE我... 定力要够.

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 2-6-2009 09:43 AM 发表


开了户口，放了钱
问题是笨蛋Philip还没有完成开户口的process
只能看:@

没关系，Citi还没拿钱，再等一会

CITI 被DELIST 了.... 是不是风暴前的一部份呢?

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 2-6-2009 10:36 AM 发表


CITI 被DELIST 了.... 是不是风暴前的一部份呢?

不知道，我只知道Citi是最烂的

有人说Citi可能会被国有化

事实上，stress test是不可信的

Citi所需要得钱可能远远大于stress test 说的

tanhy

China state press slams US debt purchases

BEIJING (AFP) — China's state press expressed opposition to massive purchases of US debt, the second day of a visit by US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.
One of Geithner's goals is to reassure Chinese leaders that their nearly 800 billion dollars in US assets are safe despite a ballooning US budget deficit, and to urge Beijing to buy more, the China Daily said.
As the largest holder of US Treasury bills, which are crucial to funding a US economic recovery, China is worried that its investment in the United States is at risk due to the global financial crisis, it said.
"The government and experts have expressed concern that Washington's mushrooming deficit, generated by massive government borrowing to fuel its economic recovery plan... will undermine both the dollar and US bonds," the paper said.
In an online poll, 87 percent of respondents said they considered China's dollar-assets unsafe, reflecting public opinion that is opposed to the government's policy of buying US bonds, the Global Times reported.
"Ordinary Chinese people are discontent with the declining value of China's huge foreign exchange reserves denominated in US dollars," the paper said.
"The reserve holdings have been the fruit of China's 30-year sustained economic growth... How to maintain and enhance the value of these holdings is a common concern of China's ordinary people," it said.
"It will be regrettable if (Geithner) underestimates and shuts his ears to voices from China's civil society," it said in an editorial.
While other papers predicted that China would continue to buy US Treasury bills, most expressed concerns over the falling value of China's assets.
"Three questions for US Treasury Secretary Geithner," read a front page headline in the official Economic Information Daily.
"How big will the United States allow its fiscal deficit to become? How do you propose implementing fiscal discipline? How will you maintain the stability of the dollar after the crisis?" it said.
Geithner is scheduled to leave China late Tuesday after meetings with President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, US officials said.


美国的债主越来越凶了

tanhy

Geithner Says China Is Confident In Strength of U.S. Economy



By Rebecca Christie


June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Timothy+Geithner&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Timothy Geithner[/url] said Chinese officials are confident in the U.S. economy and the Obama administration’s actions to fight the recession and restore financial stability.
“I’ve actually found a lot of confidence here in China, justifiable confidence, in the strength and resilience and dynamism of the American economy,” Geithner said in an interview in Beijing for CCTV, Chinese state-run television. He cited a “very sophisticated understanding” of why the U.S. is running up budget deficits in the short-term while also pledging to rein in borrowing over the medium term.
Geithner reiterated the U.S. commitment to cut spending and pull back government aid to the financial system once stability returns.
“We have a strong, independent central bank which is committed to keep inflation stable and low over time, we’re committed to a strong dollar, we have the deepest, most liquid Treasury markets in the world and we will do everything that is necessary to try to make sure we’re sustaining confidence in U.S. financial markets, not just in the United States but around the world.”
-- Editors: [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Paul+Panckhurst&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Paul Panckhurst[/url].

典型的废话
中国对美国太有信心了，所以当Geitner说“美国财产是很安全的”，北大生都哈哈大笑？

lonely2

没关系，Citi还没拿钱，再等一会 ＜－ 这句话什么意思？

HAI 。。CITI给DELIST 了， 不知道到哪一天它才能翻身....

tanhy

原帖由 lonely2 于 2-6-2009 03:46 PM 发表
没关系，Citi还没拿钱，再等一会 ＜－ 这句话什么意思？

HAI 。。CITI给DELIST 了， 不知道到哪一天它才能翻身....

Citi 还没说要发股拿钱

他只是被踢出DJIA, 而不是delist 吧？

香港跌了500点，不知道是套利还是狼来了

观察中