欧元/美金 EUR/USD 讨论区

polis001

就在市场进入2009年第一季度的最后一个月的同时，股市持续下跌。我们看到全世界的股市出现明显的下滑。亚洲下滑了4%，欧洲下滑3至4%，而美国期货下滑大约2.5%。华尔街对于世界各国将会如何拯救金融体系的担忧让股市滑落到12年来的最低价。道琼指数连续六个月下跌，而现在的价值还不到2007年十月最高价14,164.53de 一半。另外，AIG宣布去年第四季度的亏损为六百一十多亿，美国公司史上最大的季度亏损又往市场上火上加油。美元继续成为市场上不断增加的风险回避心态的受益者。日元交叉盘以及商品货币（澳元，纽币，加元）稍微下跌。我们看见新的美元买意，特别是针对欧元及英镑。隔夜的疲软信息给英镑带来更多的卖意。股市目前的位置是我们很长时间以来不曾见过的，投资集团的赎罪的可能性变大了，推动市场到更低的位置。


汇市动向
·         日圆交叉盘在伦敦时段被激烈卖出
·         杠杆账户稍早卖出欧元/美元已满足企业需求
·         欧元/美元流量看似震荡
·         英镑/美元暴跌150点后在最近2小时回弹100点


今日分析
·         全球股市大跌
·         风险回避持续中
·         美金因风险回避而持续被买进
·         AIG亏损给市场压力


关注焦点
卖出欧元/美元涨势可能是个计划。卖出至1.2640-60区域，止损在1.2700之上，目标为1.2605及1.2555。

仙劍

RSI (7)
RSI 無法突破25 會爬回上去
同樣的突破不過75 會爬回下去

第一點 profit>20 pt
第二點 profit>30 pt
第一點出場因爲有reversal signal(雖然不強）
第二點出場因爲RSI過不到75

這個是我當時sideway的方法

ocm11

昨天我没玩哈哈，有大鳄在玩水。 所以有很多人死。。。
我今天才开始玩。。。

原帖由 qplldb 于 3-3-2009 10:24 AM 发表
昨晚有谁玩EU是PROFIT的？？？

过两招来

我输的很惨啊    

qplldb

原帖由 ocm11 于 3-3-2009 09:08 PM 发表
昨天我没玩哈哈，有大鳄在玩水。 所以有很多人死。。。
我今天才开始玩。。。

大大几时真正过两招来？

polis001

Sent: Tuesday, March 03, 2009 8:33 AM
Subject: THE OLD "DOUBLE REVERSE"

THE OLD "DOUBLE REVERSE"

      The recent volatility in the currency markets is seeing every session have a mind of its own. Yesterday’s move lower in the  NY session for the Eur, Gbp, Aud, and Nzd were quickly reversed in Asia as all rebounded higher. This rally was short-lived as we saw London come in and again lean on the aforementioned currencies.
      Overnight we saw the RBA leaves rates unchanged. They were expected to cut .25bp and the lack of any action boosted  the Aud higher and kept it well bid into the London session. The equity markets may be taking a breather after the pummeling they’ve been taking of late. The NIKKEI  was down small(-0.69%),and in Europe the FTSE is down 1% while the CAC 40  and the DAX are posting tiny gains. Confidence, or probably the lack of, will be the key for today . With the equity markets falling 52% from their highs, all the way back to 1997 levels, fear is again becoming a driving force. A close below 700 in the S&P has technicals pointing to 680 and 620. Some comfort may have been found in the Wall Street Journal reporting overnight the formation of a bad bank scheme in the US. It seems to be based on the idea that investors will have an appetite for these toxic assets, that is yet to be seen. Today we are going to get more Q/A opportunities for Geithner and Bernanke on the economy and government plans to fix it. They will be speaking in different venues, but what they say will be closely listened to.


FLOWS

·         Decent selling interest in Gbp/usd in front of 1.4150
·         RM and macro names buyers of Aud in Asia
·         Good bids in Eur/usd into the 1.2500-25 area


FLAVOR OF THE DAY

·         Fear again rising in the hearts of investors
·         Equity markets to take a breather from their recent push lower?
·         Testimonies from Bernanke and Geithner  followed closely.


ONE TO WATCH

Selling Eur/usd could again be a play today. Selling into the 1.2670-90 zone, stopping above 1.2740 and targeting 1.2635 and 1.2585 may be an idea.

仙劍

今天大家有什麽看法？
我覺得1.2400可以buy

mancai

原帖由 仙劍 于 4-3-2009 10:51 AM 发表
今天大家有什麽看法？
我覺得1.2400可以buy

還很遠哦。。 今晚11.00pm有波動，估計應該是升吧。。。因爲是US的數據

howdanny

想问为啥出了对美国不利，对英国有利的消息后（两天了）GU还是跌个不停？

polis001

CHINA GIVES THE WORLD A GLIMMER OF HOPE

          Stock markets in Europe and Asia rose sharply as hopes that China will soon announce a big stimulus package that could help limit the length and severity of the global recession. As one of the few major economies that are still expanding, China is being closely watched as hopes its demand and trade can help the world recover from the most severe slowdown in decades. In  Asian, China was up +6.0%,HK up +2.5%, and Japan was up about +1.0%.European markets were up about +2.0% across the board. U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open as well.
          Risk Aversion remains the main driver of currency markets with the USD benefiting as the safe haven choice, especially against the Yen. Even though we have had unwinding of recent long Yen positions, the longs are still out there and further Yen selling may continue. As global interest rates converge towards zero, and with Japans   fundamentals deteriorating ,the argument to hold Yen is crumbling. We have rate announcements tomorrow from the ECB and the BOE. Both are expected to cut by 50bp. The anticipated easing should help keep the Usd well supported.



FLOWS

·         Seeing consistent Yen selling against all counterparties
·         Stops below 98.00 in Usd/jpy
·         Stops below 117.60 in Usd/chf
·         Model names buying Eur/usd, covering shorts from yesterday
·         Gbp/usd buying triggering stops above 1.4050 and more recently 1.4100



FLAVOR OF THE DAY

·         China stimulus gives world indices a boost
·         Japan financials continue to weaken
·         Usd continue to benefit as safe haven
·         Geithner will be testifying again today


ONE TO WATCH

Trying to get long Usd/jpy could be a play today. Buying into the 98.60-80 area, stopping below 98.00 and targeting 99.40 and 99.90 may be an idea.

仙劍

現在處於美元走高的時期
因爲全球股市大跌
只剩下美元唯一一個避險勝地

仙劍

原帖由 mancai 于 4-3-2009 08:32 PM 发表


還很遠哦。。 今晚11.00pm有波動，估計應該是升吧。。。因爲是US的數據

M1都過不到
動到pivot就跌下來了

polis001

中国给世界一丝希望

欧洲及亚洲的股市大涨因为市场期盼中国在近期会推出新的纾困计划去帮助缩短全球经济风暴的影响。身为目前经济正持续成长中的主要国家，中国被视为可以从需求及贸易来帮助世界脱离这近几十年的经济缓慢。在亚洲股市，中国上涨+6%, 香港 +2.5%, 日本大约+1.0%。欧洲市场整体上涨+2.0%。美国期货看似会走好。

风险回避持续主导外汇市场，美元仍被视为风险货币首选，尤其对日圆。虽然我们有注意到近期买入日圆交易逐渐减少，买盘压力仍然存在，日圆卖空也许会继续。随着世界利率都朝0迈进，日本经济也恶化，持续买进日圆的论点似乎站不住脚。明天会有欧洲及英国央行的利息会议。两方都被认为会各降50基点。这个结果应该会支持美元。


汇市动向

·         我们持续观察到日元兑所有相对货币的卖意
·         美元/日元止损在98.00以下
·         美元/瑞郎止损在117.60以下
·         欧元/美元出现大量买意，主要是回补昨日空头

今日分析

·         中国的经济刺激消息让全球股市得到些冲刺
·         日本金融业持续疲软
·         美元依然因为避险货币的角色而获利
·         盖特纳今日再次发言

关注焦点

试着做多美元/日元或许是个计划。在98.60-80的范围买入，98.00以下止损，目标位99.40 以及99.90或许是个想法。

仙劍

美元/瑞郎止损在117.60以下 ？？？？
USDCHF幾時飆到117????

mancai

原帖由 仙劍 于 4-3-2009 11:49 PM 发表

M1都過不到
動到pivot就跌下來了

想不到美元那么强硬 我还等EU升呢，白等。。。

仙劍

如果能保持在1.2600以上
應該可以考慮短期買上

ocm11

大家吃饱了吗。。。。

polis001

希望大家昨日都受惠到全球股市的扬升，只是令人讶异的是，这股洋溢气息可以隔夜瞬变，欧洲股市在欧洲与英国央行联袂降息50基点之前下跌了大约2.5%，美元则持续受惠于避险天堂的买气。投资人今日遭逢的一大打击是通用汽车表示如果该公司无法进行大规模的重整，该公司可能得寻求破产保护。

中国表示在巨幅的经济振兴方案下，今年将追求8%的成长，然而，同时并未宣布金融市场期盼的新计划，导致昨日股市背后的洋溢原因消失并大失所望。

欧洲央行主席特里谢今晨的记者会将受严密关注，市场将寻求任何未来可能的政策方向。


汇市动向
¨      GBPUSD在1.4000附近的买盘聚集
¨      东欧持续买入美元
¨      日圆交叉盘受抛售

今日分析
¨      英欧央行决策一如预期
¨      美元持续受追捧
¨      特里谢言论负面，欧元走低
¨      股市将受密切关注


关注焦点
欧元今日已大幅走低，可顺势于反弹至1.2570-90放空EURUSD，止损于1.2630上方，目标为1.2525与1.2475。

mancai

1min 前 pending opder上下 10 pips，結果踫到trailing stop，拿了25pips，好過沒有

仙劍

1.2634開始進場 接近R1
看到MARKET來勢洶洶
可是接近R2就閃了1.270x RSI 9x% 怕怕
果然過後就掉回，可是最後又爬回更高
算了 有好過沒有

藤原豆水店

Recently i lost a lots from the forex especially euro vs usd!
Do you think it will raise up agian to 1.27 level in short term ?