中國不妙,新國受最大影響
來源: ST
The slowdown in China will hit Singapore faster and harder than any country in the region, economists from Australian bank ANZ have warned. Other economists were not as dire in their prognoses, but agreed that the open nature of the local economy and the strong trade, investment and tourism links between the two nations mean that slower growth on the mainland will have a direct and broad-based impact on businesses and jobs here. "Singapore's economy has been on a structural shift - getting more dependent on China - over the last 10 to 20 years," said DBS economist Irvin Seah. "It shouldn't be surprising to anyone if Singapore is very badly affected."
Unlike its Asean neighbours, Singapore does not have a big domestic market to act as a buffer against weaker demand from China, said Mr Seah. HSBC economist Joseph Incalcaterra noted: "Even the services sector (in Singapore) has very strong linkages with China. In most countries, services are relatively insulated."
ANZ economists estimate that a 1 percentage point drop in China's economic growth will drag Singapore's economy down by a corresponding 1.4 percentage points, according to a note released by the bank last week. But DBS and HSBC take a slightly more positive view. DBS predicts that Singapore's growth will be dragged down by the same magnitude, while HSBC thinks it will shave roughly half a percentage point off. "Singapore's manufacturing sector is already in recession, but domestic services are holding up relatively well," said Mr Incalcaterra. He noted that services exports, even those to China, are still growing. OCBC economist Selena Ling agreed that Singapore will be among the hardest hit in Asia, apart from North Asian economies like Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan. She noted that during the global financial crisis, Singapore's growth fell 8.8 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2009 when China's economic expansion slowed to 6.2 per cent compared with a year earlier. But Ms Ling also pointed out that the forecasts assume that the Singapore Government does not step in to mitigate the impact with looser monetary or fiscal policies. Other than slower growth, Chinese import demand is also sliding, partly because of the weak yuan, said Barclays economist Leong Wai Ho. This could have a larger-than-expected impact on China's trading partners and suppliers in Asia, which will hit Singapore factories and worsen the ongoing manufacturing recession, he added. AP Oil chief executive Ho Chee Hon said China's slowdown is being felt more keenly in the oil industry than others. But the lubricants and speciality chemicals maker "never had so many inquiries coming out of China in one year than in 2015", added Mr Ho. The Chinese industry players are actively looking for cheaper alternatives and this has provided AP Oil with more opportunities to sell its finished products to the Chinese market. "On the micro level, this is a chance for us to gain market share as a relatively new entrant," said Mr Ho. However, he is more concerned with the weakening of the yuan. While AP Oil looks to sell more of its products to China, it is also actively investing there. "On the macro level, the devaluation of the yuan is a bigger issue. In terms of our investments (in China), a cheaper yuan can make our investment dollar stronger but, at the same time, our returns are affected. "This could be a double whammy for Singapore companies. And the hurt is there."
在中國經濟放緩將打擊新加坡更快，難度比在該地區的任何國家，澳大利亞澳新銀行經濟學家警告。 其他經濟學家沒有在他們的預後嚴重，但一致認為，地方經濟的開放性，兩國之間的緊密貿易，投資和旅遊方面的聯繫意味著，在大陸經濟增長放緩將產生直接和廣泛的影響企業和就業崗位。 “新加坡的經濟一直在結構性轉變 - 變得越來越依賴於中國 - 在過去的10到20年，”星展銀行經濟學家歐文佘說。 “這並不奇怪任何人，如果新加坡是非常嚴重的影響。” 不像它的東盟鄰國，新加坡沒有一個大的國內市場，作為針對來自中國的需求減弱的緩衝，佘先生說。 匯豐銀行經濟學家約瑟夫·Incalcaterra不是：“即使服務業（新加坡）與中國非常強的聯繫，在大多數國家，服務是相對封閉” 澳新銀行經濟學家估計，在中國經濟增長1個百分點下降將拖累新加坡經濟下降一個相應的1.4個百分點，根據該行上週發布的一份說明。 不過，星展銀行和匯豐採取一種更積極的看法。 星展銀行預測，新加坡的經濟增長會拖累由同一個數量級，而匯豐認為它會刮鬍子大約半個百分點的折扣。 “新加坡的製造業已經陷入衰退，但國內業務都抱著相對較好，”Incalcaterra先生說。他指出，服務出口，甚至對中國出口，還在不斷增長。 華僑銀行經濟學家塞萊娜玲認為，新加坡將成為重災區在亞洲，除了北亞洲經濟體如香港，韓國和台灣。她指出，在全球金融危機期間，新加坡的經濟增長比上年同期下降8.8％，2009年的第一季度，中國的經濟增長放緩至6.2％，與去年同期相比。 但凌小姐也指出，該預測認為，新加坡政府不介入，以減輕與寬鬆的貨幣和財政政策的影響。 除了經濟增長放緩，中國的進口需求也在滑動部分原因是疲弱元，稱巴克萊銀行的經濟學家梁煒豪。這可能對中國的貿易夥伴和供應商在亞洲，這將打擊新加坡的工廠，惡化目前的製造業衰退較大超預期的影響，他補充說。 AP石油首席執行長官何漢表示，中國經濟放緩是在石油行業比其他人感受到更敏銳。但潤滑油和特種化學品製造商“從未有過如此多的調查來自中國的一年比2015年”補充何先生。 中國的業內人士都在積極尋找更便宜的選擇，這也提供了AP油有更多機會出售其成品到中國市場。 “在微觀層面上，這是一個機會，讓大家獲得更多的市場份額作為一個相對較新的進入者，”何先生說。 不過，他更關心的是人民幣的弱化。雖然AP油看起來賣出更多的產品到中國的同時，還積極投資存在。 “在宏觀層面，人民幣的貶值是一個更大的問題。在我們的投資（在中國）而言，更便宜元就可以使我們的投資的美元強，但是，與此同時，我們的收益受到影響。 “這可能是一個雙重打擊新加坡公司。而且傷害是存在的。”
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发表于 12-1-2016 03:42 PM
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