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【PPB 4065 交流专区】PPB集团
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本帖最后由 icy97 于 25-10-2011 12:04 PM 编辑
PPB集团是五星级股票
PPB值得长期投资
PPB是一间马来西亚管理最妥善的及稳定的公司之一。
让我们看一看他是如何稳健的成长：
年份 EPS DY 红股 NTA ROE
--- --- --- ---- --- ---
92 28.6 5.7 1:5
93 31.5 6.3
94 32.4 6.5
95 44.6 6.7
96 36.5 6.7 1:4
97 33.8 8.4
98 20.0 8.6
99 52.3 13.0
00 27.2 10.8
01 34.7 10.8 1:3
02 49.5 43.0 5.43 9.1%
03 75.7 25.0 6.02 12.6%
04 75.8 30.0 6.62 11.5%
05 1:1(建议中）
------------------------------
其次让我们看一看PPBOIL吧，相信会更加精彩的！
年份 EPS DY NTA ROE
--- --- --- --- ---
02 24.75 13.00 2.23 11.1%
03 30.49 16.00 2.43 12.5%
04 41.95 16.00 2.71 15.5%
看了PPBOIL的数据，是不是有点兴奋呢？
我就是，这也是难得的长期投资股项之一。
开始发觉棕油股值得长期投资，
毕竟这是我国的强项之一。
编辑：PBB修正为PPB; PBBOIL为PPBOIL
----------------------------------
备注：
03/07/07: PPBOIL被除牌了，所以修改了主题。
[ Last edited by wtk75 on 23-4-2005 at 12:16 AM ]
[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 16-4-2008 08:29 AM 编辑 ] |
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楼主 |
发表于 19-4-2005 04:01 PM
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嗯，怎么没人回帖？还是大家放假出国去了？
希望各位前辈多多赐教；批评多多益善。
谢谢 |
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发表于 19-4-2005 04:19 PM
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发表于 19-4-2005 05:13 PM
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wtk兄，你应该问做这行业的专业人士才能对症下药。
论知识及见识，他们真得比起门外汉的投资者强几倍甚至几百倍。
门外汉的投资者最多只能以公司业绩（以前及目前）来跟你讲，但是我相信你已经掌握如何看待公司业绩. 没有很多东西可以讨论除非他是这行业的专业人士.
就像secondbrother兄，他本身在建筑领域做工多年，所以非常熟悉建筑领域及所知道的东西肯定比一般投资者多得很. 以前他已经知道wct 及 talam 面对很多问题，可惜没有人去相信他的话。
可是我在这种plantation领域没有见识.
我讲的话肯定很多人不希望听，说费话. 不讲了. |
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发表于 19-4-2005 05:32 PM
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ArsenalMAS 于 19-4-2005 04:19 PM 说 :
到底是PPB还是PBB？？
标题是PPB，内容是PBB？？
是 PPB 的，只是 wtk75 按错罢了。。
PPBOIL
Details DEC-2003 DEC-2002 DEC-2001
E P S 0.304 0.279 0.072
D P S 0.132 0.058 0.022
NTAB 2.426 2.689 2.504
Turnover 468,374,000.00 404,633,000.00 239,411,000.00
Net Profit 135,606,000.00 123,558,000.00 30,417,000.00
原来klse-ris 的网页可以开了 。。。
[ Last edited by 小小陌生人 on 19-4-2005 at 05:36 PM ] |
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发表于 19-4-2005 05:41 PM
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wtk75 于 17-4-2005 11:00 PM 说 :
其次让我们看一看PPBOIL吧，相信会更加精彩的！
年份 EPS DY NTA ROE
--- --- --- --- ---
02 24.75 13.00 2.23 11.1%
03 30.49 16.00 2.43 12.5%
04 41.95 16.00 2.71 15.5%
看了PBBOIL的数据，是不是有点兴奋呢？
我就是，这也是难得的长期投资股项之一。
开始发觉棕油股值得长期投资，
毕竟这是我国的强项之一。...
嗨！WTK75兄，你好。
其实这两间都是好公司来的，只是棕油股需要看CPO棕油行情和需供等等。。。如果你想问有关于棕油股的东西，不妨找我的大师兄TekYong，他对这方面有研究。
TREX |
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楼主 |
发表于 19-4-2005 09:21 PM
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tomteohyk 于 19-4-2005 17:13 说 :
wtk兄，你应该问做这行业的专业人士才能对症下药。
论知识及见识，他们真得比起门外汉的投资者强几倍甚至几百倍。
门外汉的投资者最多只能以公司业绩（以前及目前）来跟你讲，但是我相信你已经掌握如何看待公司 ...
感谢大家的回复。谢谢。
tomteohyk兄，
我的生活圈子局限了接触到这一方面的见解和讯息。
所以，只能从表面的数字略微的检讨和分析出一些让自己感到安心和增加信心的理由。
我认同最重要的分析因素应该是诚如您所提及的“相关行业专家的意见”。
相关行业的目前处境，状况和未来前景的具体见解更胜于数字上分析所得出来的结论和看法；
简单的来说，数字应该是辅助的工具。
虽然您谦虚的自认在种植领域没有认识，还是衷心希望您可以发表一下看法（如果您有时间的话），相信以您在股海里宝贵的经验，任何的眼光和思维都会是一针见血。
ArsenalMAS兄和小小陌生人兄，
PPB和PPBOIL误埴为PBB和PBBOIL，请见谅。可能是太常打“PBB”ANK了 ，习惯成自然，一时改不了。已经修正了。
TREX兄，
您的大师兄TekYong兄，神龙见首不见尾，最近很少出现论坛了。希望能够说曹操，曹操就到，并且发表一些关于棕油这个行业的精辟见解。先谢了。说真的，最近论坛的前辈都行消影失。真的可能大家都度假去了，我的一位朋友昨天就去了澳洲的黄金海岸度假（好羡慕）。
棕油价格在过去的几个月里已经不复以往的强劲，相信多少会影响即将出炉的业绩吧？ |
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发表于 19-4-2005 10:04 PM
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Analysis report from Malaysia Security.
Per Share Data
FYE 31 December 2004A 2005E 2006F 2007F
Revenue 10,999.7 12,449.9 13,811.1 15,073.5
Operating Profit 759.3 826.6 842.1 852.2
Depreciation/Amortisation (145.9) (165.3) (171.0) (176.6)
Interest Expenses (15.1) (13.7) (12.8) (11.6)
Pre-tax Profit 733.5 697.5 708.4 714.0
Taxation (183.8) (174.4) (177.1) (178.5)
Net Profit 400.7 392.4 398.5 401.6
EBITDA Margin 6.9% 6.6% 6.1% 5.7%
Pre-tax Margin 6.7% 5.6% 5.1% 4.7%
Net Margin 3.6% 3.2% 2.9% 2.7%
PPB Group Bhd
Initial Coverage RM6.75
Market Cap: RM4,001.1m
Board: Main Board
Sector: Consumer Products
Stock Code: 4065
BUY
Key Stock Statistics 2005E 2006F
EPS (sen) 33.1 33.6
PER (x) 10.2 10.0
Dividend/Share (sen) 30.0 30.0
NTA/Share (RM) 3.41 3.50
Book Value/Share 3.43 3.53
Issued Cap. (m shares) 592.7
52-Week Price Range RM2.80 - RM1.98
Major Shareholders:
Kuok Brothers 41.43%
PNB 4.22%
Nai Seng Sdn Bhd 4.16%
1. Investment Highlights
• PPB Group, the flagship umbrella for Tan Sri Robert Kuok’s business in
Malaysia, is one of the largest conglomerates listed on Bursa Malaysia.
• The group has grown from its initial business of cane cultivation and sugar
refining to managing a diverse business portfolio which includes oil palm
plantations, edible oils refining, grains trading, flour and feed milling,
livestock farming, packaging, property, film exhibition and waste management
and utilities.
• PPB’s oil palm plantation business, held under PPB Oil Palms which is
also listed on Bursa Malaysia, remains the largest earnings contributor for
the group.
• Going forward, the group will spend on improving operational efficiencies
and will be on the lookout for new profitable business ventures.
• Total capex of RM410m has been budgeted for FY05, where a large portion
is dedicated to PPB Oil Palms for the construction of mills and plantation
development.
• We arrive at a fair value of RM8.00 for PPB’s shares based on RNAV
valuations, which implies a PER05 of 12.1 and a P/BV of 1.2x
• Dividend yield is attractive at 4.4% given the increase in dividend payout of
30.0 sen in FY04.
Per Share Data
FYE 31 December 2004A 2005E 2006F 2007F
Book Value (RM) 6.68 6.87 7.07 7.27
Op Cash Flow per share (RM) 0.75 0.85 0.73 0.80
EPS (sen) 67.6 66.2 67.2 67.8
DPS (sen) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Payout Ratio (%) 44.4% 45.3% 44.6% 44.3%
PER (x) 10.0 10.2 10.0 10.0
P/Op Cash Flow (x) 9.0 7.9 9.2 8.5
P/Book Value (x) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9
Dividend Yield (%) 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4%
ROE (%) 10.1% 9.6% 9.5% 9.3%
Net Gearing (x) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash
15 April 2005
Fair value: RM8.00
(RM4.00 ex-Bonus Issue)
PPB Group Bhd
2. Background
PPB Group has grown from its initial business of cane cultivation and sugar
refining into one of the largest conglomerates in Malaysia. It is listed on the
Bursa Malaysia with a market capitalisation in excess of RM4.0b. The group
was incorporated in November 1968 and was subsequently listed on the
stock exchange of Kuala Lumpur and Singapore in May 1972. PPB Group
(previously known as Perlis Plantations Bhd) is the flagship umbrella for Tan
Sri Robert Kuok's business in Malaysia. He also owns Jerneh Asia Bhd which
carries out insurance business.
PPB's main business portfolio includes the following:
• sugar and cane manufacturing
• oil palm plantation
• edible oils refining
• grains trading, flour and feed milling
• livestock farming
• packaging
• property
• film exhibition
• waste management and utilities
Business Segment
a. Sugar and Cane Manufacturing. The group's sugar operations are undertaken
by its wholly-owned subsidiary, Malayan Sugar Manufacturing Company
Bhd (MSM), which was acquired in 1976, and 50% associate Kilang Gula
Felda Perlis Sdn Bhd (KGFP). The group's involvement in the sugar industry
started as early 1968 with the cultivation and milling of sugar cane in a 4,350
hectare cane plantation in Chuping, Perlis. KGFP, a joint venture between PPB
and FELDA, was established to cultivate cane on an adjoining 4,000 hectares
of land and to own and operate an integrated sugar mill with a milling capacity
of 5,500 tonnes of cane per day and a refinery with a melting capacity of 650
tonnes of raw sugar per day to process cane from both plantations. Jointly,
MSM and KGFP produce more than 650,000 tonnes of refined sugar per
annum.
MSM's sugar refinery at Prai, Province Wellesley started operations in 1964
and has become the region's largest sugar refinery with a melting capacity of
2,000 tonnes of raw sugar per day. MSM produces various types of sugar for
industrial and household consumption. Its customers consist of major food
and beverage industries, confectionaries, hotels, restaurants, food outlets
and household consumers. MSM, together with KGFP, supplies approximately
60% of Malaysia's domestic sugar requirements.
PPB's sugar business is the second largest earnings contributor to the group
after its oil palm plantation business.
b. Oil Palm Plantation. The plantation business is undertaken through PPB's
55.6% subsidiary, PPB Oil Palms, which is also listed on Bursa Malaysia.
PPB's involvement in oil palm cultivation began in 1986 through the establishment
of Saremas Sdn Bhd to develop an oil palm plantation in Sarawak.
Subsequently, it acquired a 60% stake in Sapi Plantations Sdn Bhd to develop
an oil palm plantation in Sabah. In 1995, the group expanded its oil palm
plantation business in Indonesia with the acquisition of a 70% equity interest
in PT Tidar Sungkai Sawit.
Today, PPB Oil Palms has 21 plantations in East Malaysia and Indonesia with
a total plantation landbank of 210,788 hectares and operates 8 crude palm oil
mills with a total processing capacity of 1.8m tonnes of FFB per annum.
PPB Group Bhd
Though not the largest revenue generator for the group, the plantation business
remains the main earnings contributor. Based on group operating earnings
of RM620m for FY04, approximately 36% came from the oil palm plantation
business.
c. Edible Oils Refining. The edible oils refining operations are held by its
wholly-owned subsidiary, PGEO Group Sdn Bhd (PGEO). PGEO was formed
in December 2000 to consolidate the edible oils refining operations of FFM
Bhd and PPB Oil Palms Bhd. PGEO's operates an integrated edible oils
manufacturing business, with activities ranging from the conversion of crude
oils into refined oil products to the marketing of refined oil products for international
markets.
PGEO has one of the largest refining capacities in the country of 11,700 tonnes
per day with six refineries in Peninsular and East Malaysia. The group refines
over 3m tonnes of edible oils per annum and exports about 90% to overseas
markets such as India, China, the EU countries, Middle East and Pakistan.
PGEO is also involved in soybean and palm kernel crushing, drums manufacturing,
consumer packaging and downstream activities which includes the
production of shortening and hydrogenation products, cocoa butter replacers
and other specialty fats.
The group's edible oil business makes up the largest portion of the group's
annual revenue at 72.7%, but comes in third in terms of earnings contribution
after oil palm plantations and sugar and cane manufacturing.
d. Grains Trading, Flour and Feed Milling. PPB's grains trading, flour and feed
milling activities are held under the now-privatised FFM Bhd (FFM) which
commenced operations in 1966 with the establishment of its first flour mill
with a daily wheat milling capacity of 150 mt in Port Klang. Today, FFM has
grown to be the largest flour miller in Malaysia, with a total wheat milling
capacity of 2,430 tonnes per day. At present, FFM produces over 300,000
tonnes of flour a year and supplies more than 40% of Malaysia's wheat flour
requirements.
FFM is also one of the biggest feed millers in Malaysia, operating five feed
mills in Peninsular and East Malaysia and produces about 300,000 tonnes of
animal feeds annually which is about 9% of domestic requirements.
This division (incorporating its livestock farming operations) is the second
largest contributor to the group's revenue at 7.1%, while earnings contribution
is only at 6.9% of the group's operating earnings for FY04. |
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发表于 19-4-2005 10:10 PM
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e. Livestock Farming. The group's livestock farming business is also held
under FFM. Its lifestock farming activities include broiler breeding and production
of eggs. The business began with the incorporation of Fedfarms Sdn Bhd
on 26 June 1984, now known as FFM Farms Sdn Bhd. FFM Farms owns two
breeder farms in Sua Betong, Negeri Sembilan and Gurun, Kedah covering a
total area of 167ha and operates a layer farm on a 550 acre land in Trong,
Taiping which produces 20m eggs a month. It also produces organic fertilizer
using pure chicken manure that has been completely composted into a near
odourless plant food.
f. Packaging. The packaging business is operated under PGEO and 79.9%
subsidiary Tego Sdn Bhd (Tego). PGEO operates a consumer packing plant in
Pasir Gudang, Johor for the packing of edible oils into tin cans, PET bottles,
HDPE containers (Jerry can) and BIB (bag in box). Most of these packed
products are for export whilst some brand names such as "Neptune" and "Seri
Murni" are locally distributed. Tego manufactures polybags for sugar, flour and
industrial chemical products as well as container bags for bulk cargoes.
Tego's factory in Senawang, Negeri Sembilan supplies to the local market
while its factory in Yangon, Myanmar caters mainly to the export market.
PPB Group Bhd
g. Property Development. The group's property business and investments
are operated under PPB Hartabina Sdn Bhd which was acquired between
1982 and 1983, PPB's first foray into the property sector, and its 34% interest in
Shaw Brothers Sdn Bhd. PPB Hartabina is developing a 52.6 acres of prime
hill land in Taman Segar, Cheras and manages Cheras LeisureMall. It is also
carrying out restoration works at Beach street and Church street in Georgetown,
Penang.
h. Film Exhibition. PPB's cinema operations are carried out through its 54.2%-
owned Golden Screen Cinemas, which operates the largest cinema chain in
Malaysia with 95 screens in 17 locations. GSC's new cinema sites will be
located at Bandar Utama Phase II and KL Pavilion.
i. Waste Management and Utilities. PPB acquired a 55% stake in Chemquest
Sdn Bhd in 1993, a company involved in environmental engineering, waste
management and utilities, chemical manufacturing and trading, contract manufacturing,
engineering services and information technology. Its environmental
engineering, waste management and utilities operations are undertaken by
its 99% subsidiary Chemical Waste Management Sdn Bhd (CWM). The
Lugouqiao Sewerage Treatment Plant (Phase 1) project, which is a 20-year
concession, in Fengtai District, Beijing, was PPB's maiden water engineering
project in China. The project could potentially provide PPB with the strategic
advantage to bid for 10 other sewerage projects in Beijing, estimated to be
worth about RMB2b. To date, CWM has successfully commissioned more
than 20 water projects throughout Malaysia and 50 wastewater treatment
plants for various types of industries.
3. Earnings outlook
Oil Palm Plantation. PPB Group's main earnings drivers are essentially the oil
palm plantation, sugar and cane manufacturing, and edible oils refining
division. The largest contributor to the group's earnings is the oil palm plantation
operations, undertaken by its 55.6% subsidiary PPB Oil Palms, which is
also listed on Bursa Malaysia. Oil palm plantations contributed 36.1% of
PPB's operating earnings, followed by the sugar and cane division at 23.3%
and edible oils refining at 18.6%.
Being a pure upstream planter, PPB Oil Palms is expected to benefit from firm
CPO prices, coupled with high CPO production from young plantation estates.
Of its total planted area of 79,111 hectares in 2004, approximately 78% (or
61,777 hectares) is matured, while 17,334 hectares (22%) are immature. With
additional plantings, the immature acreage is expected to grow to about
30,000 hectares. We believe PPB Oil Palm's yield profile is very attractive as it
ensures rising yields when the immature palms reach maturity over the next
couple of years, while young palms attain prime age. The increase in production
will also provide the necessary earnings buffer in times of soft CPO
prices. Nevertheless, we expect CPO prices to remain firm in 2005 given the
persisting tight global edible oil inventories despite the bumper soybean crop
from the US and South America.
Sugar Operations. PPB's sugar operations are expected to face margin
squeeze due to the increase in raw material prices and higher freight costs.
The reason for the expected margin squeeze is due to controlled retail selling
price of refined sugar at RM1.45 per kg, while the estimated cost of raw
materials ranges between 90 sen to RM1.20 per kg. While sustained high
crude oil prices may reduce world income growth which may potentially result
in lower sugar consumption, high oil prices will increase demand for ethanol,
resulting in a higher proportion of sugar cane being diverted to ethanol production.
The squeeze in supplies will effectively drive up prices of raw sugar.
PPB Group Bhd
Edible Oils Division. The group's edible oil division is expected to register
higher sales in 2005 with the commissioning of the edible oils and fats
processing facility in Rotterdam, Netherlands that costs EUR27.7m. To recap,
PGEO and KOG Investments entered into a 65:35 JV in KOG Edible Oils BV for
a project in Rotterdam. The plant will have processing capacity of 300,000
tonnes of oils and fats per annum and is expected to commence operation in
mid-2005. KOGBV has a paid-up capital of EUR12m. PPB's edible oil operations
has traditionally been a high volume and low margin business. Operating
margins stood at 1.4% based on its FY04 results. As such, earnings will be
driven primarily by volume growth. Consumer aversion to genetically modified
(GMO) food products in the EU will continue to drive demand for palm oil based
oils, which are deemed GMO-free. Palm oil demand from the US market is
also expected to pick up with the imposition of trans-fatty acid (TFA) labeling
rules which takes effect 1 Jan 2006.
Major Capex. PPB group will be investing approximately RM410m in capital
expenditure this year. A significant portion of the capex (approximately RM244m)
will be for PPB Oil Palm's construction of mills including property, plant and
equipment, and plantation development. FFM will be spending about RM129m
for the mill construction in Pulau Indah (RM23m), an oil refinery in Bintulu and
Lahad Datu (RM60m), a new flour mill at West Port (RM25m) and a shortening
plant at Pasir Gudang (RM21m). The leisure business will spend approximately
RM17.6m in new cinema sites at Bandar Utama Phase 2. The property,
waste management and other division will spend about RM20m in capex for
2005.
Financials. PPB registered a 18% growth in turnover for FY04 (RM11.0b vs
RM9.3b in 2003) while operating earnings improved 8.5% to RM602m. The
increase in turnover was largely due to higher palm oil products realised,
improved crop production and higher sales volume registered in the group's
edible oils division. In summary, the oil palm plantation, edible oil refining and
shipping division registered higher earnings, while contributions from sugar
refining, grains trading and flour and feed milling operations were lower due to
increase in raw materials cost and higher freight charges.
The group registered 5-year turnover CAGR of 20.4% and EBIT 5-year CAGR of
12.9%. EBIT margins over the last 5 years have been maintained between
4.2% and 6.8%, while net margins ranged between 3.0% and 4.7%.
4. Investment Risk
Rising raw materials costs and high freight costs will have a negative impact
on the group's profitability, since margins are already in the low single-digits.
Stock liquidity has generally been poor due to the low free float, but is expected
to improve with the upcoming bonus issue. Kuok group holds about 42.4% of
PPB Group, while approximately 20% of the shareholding is held by institutions.
The group has proposed a bonus issue of 592.7m shares on the basis
1 bonus share for every 1 existing share held.
PPB Group Bhd
5. Recent Developments
Acquisition of Kerry-Glory Flour Mills
PPB acquired a 43.35% equity interest in Kerry-Glory Flour Mills Co Ltd for
Baht329.45m (about RM30.7m). Kerry-Glory is principally involved in wheat
flour milling and distribution and owns a 250MT per day wheat mill. The
acquisition is expected to enhance the group’s operational efficiency in the
wheat flour milling business.
PPB Oil Palms increases its Indonesian plantation lanbank
PPB Oil Palms increased its landbank by 67,189 hectares to 210,788 hectares
following the acquisition of four Indonesian plantation companies, which
include PT Sarana Titan Permata, PT Karunia Kencana Permaisejati, PT Bumi
Sawit Kencana and PT Mentaya Sawit Mas. The acquisition is in line with the
group’s aspiration to own a total of 100,000 hectares of plantation land in
Central Kalimantan in five years time.
Property: Launched Segar Court project in July 2004
PPB Hartabina launched the Segar Court project in July last year. The project
entails a low density development and is expected to generate sales of
RM17m.
Cinemas: GSC Gurney Plaza and Berjaya Times Square
The new GSC, Gurney Plaza, which is a 12-screen multiplex, was successfully
opened in January 2004. The 9-screen multiplex at Berjaya Times Square was
successfully launched in January 2005. GSC has also secured new cinema
sites at Bandar Utama Phase II, which comprises 13-screens targeted to
open mid-2005, and KL Pavillion (13-screens) targeted to open mid-2007. |
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发表于 19-4-2005 10:31 PM
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暂时没钱，不然我跟.. |
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发表于 19-4-2005 10:34 PM
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虽然子弹有限，不过我会认真考虑PPB，即使是100股 |
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发表于 19-4-2005 10:41 PM
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5. Valuations and Recommendation
Fair value RM8.00. As the group's earnings base is quite diversified, we are
using the RNAV based valuation method (Appendix: Table 2) and have arrived
at a fair value of RM8.00 for the shares (RM4.00 ex-Bonus Issue), which
implies a PER05 of 12.1x and a P/BV of 1.2x. Our fair value translates to a
18.5% upside from the current market price of RM6.76. Hence, we initiate
coverage on PPB Group with a BUY recommendation.
Given the diversity of business of the other peer conglomerates, we do not
believe the valuation based on direct peer comparison is meaningful. Nevertheless,
we have included the profile of several listed conglomerate below.
Attractive dividend yield. The group also maintains a good dividend track
record and has gradually increased dividend payout over the years. Its latest
gross dividend of 30 sen per share for FY04 translates to a 4.4% yield. We do
not doubt the group's ability to continue paying out attractive dividends given
the strong operating cashflow of between RM400m to RM500m annually.
Comparative Valuation
PPB Sime Darby MMC YTL
Share Price (RM)
15 Apr 2005 6.75 5.85 2.00 5.50
Mkt Cap (RM m) 4,001.1 13,972. 4 2,253. 2 8,345.8
Avg Daily Vol (m) 0.3 1.9 0.3 1.4
PER FY03 (x) 8.7 14.6 16.6 13.0
PER FY04 (x) 9.0 14.0 7.9 9.1
P/NTA 1.0 1.8 0.7 1.4
Yield (%) 4.4 4.4 2.5 1.4
PPB Group Bhd
Balance Sheet and Other Financial Data (RM m)
FYE 31 December 2004A 2005E 2006F 2007F
Total Assets 6,133.9 6,359.1 6,586.1 6,820.7
Fixed Assets 2,642.3 2,829.6 2,843.7 2,852.1
Current Assets 2,347.1 2,384.9 2,597.8 2,824.1
LT Assets 1,144.6 1,144.6 1,144.6 1,144.6
Current Liabilities 932.6 975.5 1,000.3 1,019.2
LT Liabilities 149.8 149.8 149.8 149.8
Share Capital 592.7 1,185.5 1,185.5 1,185.5
Shareholder Funds 3,960.1 4,071.5 4,189.0 4,309.6
PROFIT AND LOSS STATEMENT
* Based on diluted share capital ex-Bonus Issue
FY04E FY05F FY06F FY07F FY08F
FYE Dec (RM m)
Turnover 10,999.7 12,449.9 13,811.1 15,073.5 16,420.2
Cost of sales (9,925.0) (11,257.8) (12,499.1) (13,641.5) (14,860.3)
Gross profit 1,074.7 1,192.1 1,312.1 1,432.0 1,559.9
Distribution cost (241.7) (273.6) (303.8) (331.6) (361.2)
Administrative expenses (159.1) (180.1) (165.7) (180.9) (197.0)
Interest income 13.4 8.8 6.3 4.9 5.6
Others 71.9 79.4 (6.7) (72.1) (141.7)
EBITDA 759.3 826.6 842.1 852.2 865.5
Depreciation (145.9) (165.3) (171.0) (176.6) (182.2)
EBIT 613.3 661.3 671.1 675.6 683.2
Interest expense (15.1) (13.7) (12.8) (11.6) (10.4)
EBT (before EI) 598.2 647.5 658.4 664.0 672.9
Associates 65.5 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Pretax profit 733.5 697.5 708.4 714.0 722.9
Taxation (183.8) (174.4) (177.1) (178.5) (180.7)
Profit before MI 549.7 523.1 531.3 535.5 542.2
Minority interest (149.1) (130.8) (132.8) (133.9) (135.5)
PATMI 400.7 392.4 398.5 401.6 406.6
Diluted share capital (m) * 1,185.5 1,185.5 1,185.5 1,185.5 1,185.5
Diluted EPS (sen) 33.8 33.1 33.6 33.9 34.3
MARGINS AND RATIOS
FY04E FY05F FY06F FY07F FY08F
Growth (%)
Turnover 18.0% 13.2% 10.9% 9.1% 8.9%
EBITDA 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBIT 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Operating profit 2.7% 8.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.3%
Pretax profit 3.7% -4.9% 1.6% 0.8% 1.2%
Net profit 7.9% -2.1% 1.6% 0.8% 1.2%
Turnover 5-yr CAGR 20.4% 10.5%
EBIT 5-yr CAGR 12.9% 2.7%
Profitability (%)
Gross margin 9.8% 9.6% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%
EBITDA margin 6.9% 6.6% 6.1% 5.7% 5.3%
Operating margin 5.4% 5.2% 4.8% 4.4% 4.1%
Pretax margin 6.7% 5.6% 5.1% 4.7% 4.4%
Net margin 3.6% 3.2% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5%
Effective tax rate 25.1% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Ratios
ROE (%) 10.1% 9.6% 9.5% 9.3% 9.2%
ROA (%) 6.5% 6.2% 6.0% 5.9% 5.7%
Gross gearing (x) 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Net cash/(debt) to equity (x) Net cash Net cash Net cash 0.01 0.00
Sales per share (RM) 9.28 10.50 11.65 12.71 13.85
EBITDA per share (RM) 0.64 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73
Cash per share (RM) 0.45 0.29 0.20 0.15 0.17
Gross interest cover (x) 39.74 47.50 52.14 57.65 65.32
Price to Book (x) 0.51 0.98 0.96 0.93 0.90
Price to NTA (x) 0.51 0.99 0.96 0.94 0.91
Price to OCF (x) 9.03 7.90 9.24 8.49 7.38
Price to Sales (x) 0.36 0.32 0.29 0.27 0.24
Price to EBITDA (x) 5.27 4.84 4.75 4.69 4.62
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.81 5.73 5.91 6.06 6.10
Book value per share (RM) 6.68 3.43 3.53 3.64 3.74
NTA per share (RM) 6.62 3.41 3.50 3.61 3.71
PPB Group Bhd
FY04E FY05F FY06F FY07F FY08F
Non-current assets
Net PPE 2,642.3 2,829.6 2,843.7 2,852.1 2,854.8
Land held for development 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7
Intangible asset 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7
Inv in associated company 598.7 598.7 598.7 598.7 598.7
Inv in jointly held entities 38.9 38.9 38.9 38.9 38.9
Deferred tax asset 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3
Long term investments 452.3 452.3 452.3 452.3 452.3
Current assets
Inventories 950.6 1,079.5 1,301.3 1,495.0 1,628.5
Land under development 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0
Amount due from customers 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
Trade receivables 600.2 682.2 756.8 825.9 899.7
Dues from associates 180.0 198.0 217.8 239.6 263.5
Current tax assets 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Short term deposits 484.0 306.2 213.3 160.8 178.2
Cash and bank balances 53.8 34.0 23.7 17.9 19.8
Total current assets 2,347.1 2,384.9 2,597.8 2,824.1 3,074.8
Current liabilities
Amount due to customers 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Trade and other payables 588.3 678.6 753.4 822.2 895.7
Hire purchase liabilities 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Short term borrowings 348.2 281.8 231.8 181.8 131.8
Bank overdrafts 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
Total current liabilities 932.6 975.5 1,000.3 1,019.2 1,042.7
Net current assets/(liabilities) 1,414.5 1,409.4 1,597.5 1,804.9 2,032.1 |
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发表于 19-4-2005 10:45 PM
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BALANCE SHEET
ENTERPRISE VALUE
* Based on current share capital of 592.7m shares
FY04E FY05F FY06F FY07F FY08F
Market capitalisation 4,001.1 4,001.1 4,001.1 4,001.1 4,001.1
Minority interest 779.4 910.2 1,043.0 1,176.9 1,312.4
Total cash (537.7) (340.2) (237.0) (178 .6) (198.0)
Total debt 167.3 167.3 167.3 167.3 167.3
Enterprise value (EV) 4,410.0 4,738.3 4,9744 5,166.6 5,282.8
Share capital (m shares) * 592.7 592.7 592.7 592.7 592.7
Financed by:
Shareholders' equity
Share capital 592.7 1,185.5 1,185.5 1,185.5 1,185.5
Retained earnings 2,492.5 2,531.1 2,648.6 2,769.3 2,894.9
Share premium 526.87 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9
Capital reserve 152.3 152.3 152.3 152.3 152.3
Revaluation reserve 164.7 164.7 164.7 164.7 164.7
Exch. translation reserves 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0
Shareholders' funds 3,960.1 4,071.5 4,189.0 4,309.6 4,435.3
Minority interest 779.4 910.2 1,043.0 1,176.9 1,312.4
Long-term loans 149.8 149.8 149.8 149.8 149.8
Deferred income 25.4 22.9 20.6 18.5 16.7
Deferred tax liability 286.7 229.3 183.5 146.8 117.4
Total Finances 5,201.3 5,383.6 5,585.8 5,801.5 6,031.5
EV per share (RM) 7.44 7.99 8.39 8.72 8.91
PPB Group Bhd
companies.
Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear):
P = price PBT/PAT = Profit before tax/Profit after tax mom= month-on-month
PE/PER = price earnings/ PE ratio
NTA = net tangile asset yoy = year-on-year
PEG = PE ratio to growth NAV = net asset value qoq = quarter-on-quarter
FV = fair value EBIT= Earnings before interest, tax ytd = year-to-date
BV = book value EBITDA= EBIT, depreciation and amortisation FY/FYE = financial year/ financial year end
EV = enterprise value CY = calendar year DCF = discounted cashflow
ROE = return on equity capex = capital expenditure FCF = free cashflow
ROA = return on asset adex = advertising expenditure CAGR = compounded annual
ROS = return on shareholders’ funds p.a = per annum growth rate EPS = earnings per share
WACC = weighted average cost DPS = dividend per share
That's all detail report. |
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楼主 |
发表于 19-4-2005 11:08 PM
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发表于 20-4-2005 12:07 AM
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yes, PPB is a counter worth to look into. another Robert Kuok's company, MAYBULK is also a good counter. going to pay out approximately 5% dividend on coming May. |
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发表于 20-4-2005 12:43 AM
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MALAYSIA'S PLANTATION SECTOR MAINTAINED 'UNDERWEIGHT' - OSK
Updated : 12-04-2005
Media : AFX
Story By : Alice Chia
www.biznewsdb.com
(XFN-ASIA) - OSK Research Sdn Bhd said it is maintaining its "underweight" call on the plantation sector while it waits to see if a recovery in palm oil exports is sustainable.
In a note, it said exports rose to 1.19 mln tons in March, growing 27.3 pct from a month earlier, and 27.1 pct from a year earlier.
"This was the highest exports number in the past six months and was driven by higher exports to the European Union, China and the US," OSK said.
The research house added it believes production will continue to be strong this year.
"We believe crude palm oil prices (CPO) prices will be sideways at best to reflect the equilibrium between production and exports," it added.
OSK said that palm oil production for March picked up to 1.21 mln tons, up 16 pct from a month earlier, marking the end of the low production season.
Production rose 29.3 pct from March 2004.
The research house said that despite rising to around 1,500 rgt per metric ton in a recent rally, CPO prices have eased to 1,400 rgt.
Based on spot month and third month futures contracts, it said average prices for CPO year-to-date are 1,361 rgt and 1,363 per metric ton.
"Our average price assumption of 1,350 rgt for calendar year 2005 appears to be intact for the time being. We will look to revise it upwards should exports to the EU and the US prove to be strong enough to reduce inventory levels," it added.
OSK said it is maintaining its "sell" recommendation for IOI Corp and PPB Oil Palm and its "neutral" call for Kuala Lumpur Kepong.
The research house said that it is maintaining its calendar year 2005 earnings forecast for IOI at 722.3 mln rgt, which translates into an earnings per share of 61.8 sen.
It is putting a fair value of 7.65 rgt a share for IOI Corp based on a fair price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.4 times.
"Its (IOI's) stock price has been well supported by IOIs share buyback program as well as by purchases by (IOI's) executive chairman Lee Shin Cheng, " the research house said.
OSK also said that it is maintaining its earnings forecast for Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd at 480.5 mln rgt for the fiscal year to September 2005 and 500.2 mln for fiscal year to September 2006.
It is also keeping its fair value for KL Kepong at 6.80 rgt, which is based on fair P/E ratio of 10 times.
The research house said that KL Kepong's management said the firm is looking at ways to improve its return on equity (ROE), possibly with a higher dividend payout to reduce its cashpile.
"We have always said that KL Kepongs huge cashpile is a drag on its ROE, hence we view the managements effort as positive," it added.
OSK said it is also maintaining its "sell" recommendation on PPB Oil with a fair value of 3.15 rgt a share.
It is also keeping its earnings forecast for PPB Oil at 154.8 mln rgt for the fiscal year to December 2005 and 170.1 mln for 2006.
MALAYSIA PLANTATION SECTOR MAINTAINED AT 'UNDERWEIGHT' - OSK
Updated : 11-03-2005
Media : AFX
Story By : Wing Siong Hoo
www.biznewsdb.com
(XFN-ASIA) - OSK Research Sdn Bhd said it has maintained its "underweight" rating on the plantation sector, with "sell" calls on IOI Corp Bhd and PPB Oil Palms Bhd and a "sell into strength" recommendation on Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd.
The emergence of the "El Nino" weather phenomenon may have a muted impact on crude palm oil (CPO) prices, it added.
In a research note, OSK said that, at the end of the day, market forces of demand and supply determine the prices of CPO price.
"El Nino may or may not reduce the supply of CPO coming into the market as reduced yield per hectare is mitigated by rising mature hectarage from both Malaysia and Indonesia," OSK noted.
The local brokerage said, as CPO demand continues to ease, the bearish price trend will prevail.
As for IOI Corp, OSK said its forecast is for the company to post earnings per share (EPS) of 61.8 sen for the year to June 2005 with a fair value of 7.65 rgt a share.
"With downside of 17.3 pct, we maintain our 'sell' call for IOI Corp," it added.
With regards to PPB Oil Palms, OSK said the stock is 4.5 pct overvalued compared to its fair value of 3.15 rgt per share, but it will be attractive from the dividend angle with gross yield at 5.3 pct, if the company pays out 50 pct of its earnings.
However, it cautioned that there is a risk of capital depreciation and the dividend payout may be reduced if PPB Oil Palm sees its outlook as gloomy and decides it needs to conserve cash.
Toucing on KL Kepong, OSK said it has 4.4 pct limited upside to its fair value of 6.80 rgt a share.
It added that it is neutral on KL Kepong and recommends investors sell into strength.
KL favours stable CPO price
Updated : 14-04-2005
Media : Business Times
Story By : ZAIDI ISHAM ISMAIL
www.biznewsdb.com
EXTREME weather conditions may push palm oil prices higher, but it is not a phenomenon that Malaysia, the world¡¦s largest producer of the commodity, favours.
Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Datuk Peter Chin Fah Kui said El Nino, if it occurs, will disrupt crude palm oil (CPO) production and open opportunities to rival oils.
¡§I would prefer a more stable CPO price because when there is no oil palm productivity what is the use? I prefer a stable CPO price and profitability,¡¨ Chin told Business Times in a phone interview.
He acknowledged that extreme weather conditions could cause a surge in CPO prices due to a supply shortage.
¡§The El Nino would make some people happy, but bear in mind there will be a shortage in production causing consumers to go and buy other edible oils such as soyabean or sunflower oil,¡¨ Chin said.
The minister said he hopes that whatever the weather predictions are, they will not have any bad effects on the overall development of palm oil in the country.
¡§A high CPO price is useless if it benefits other edible oils, and a low price will cause farmers to abandon their crops. So, a stable price is much better.¡¨
Chin said El Nino can put palm oil at a disadvantage because it is confined to a region, benefiting edible oils in other regions, such as soyabean in South America.
¡§It is cyclical because when there are early frost and heavy rains, soyabean crops in the US, Brazil or Argentina will fail or produce less and consumers will switch to palm oil,¡¨ he added.
Recent developments indicate a 50-50 chance that El Nino may occur in this part of the world.
El Nino is linked to lower crop output but higher commodity prices, such as happened during a mild one in 2001 and a stronger one in 1997 which saw CPO prices spike up as high as RM2,700 a tonne.
News reports quoted Switzerland¡¦s GE Insurance Solutions worldwide manager for agricultural insurance, Karl Schneider, as saying that the prospect of El Nino happening is intensifying and there is a 50-50 chance.
Golden Hope Plantations Bhd group chief executive Datuk Sabri Ahmad said: ¡§We treat the El Nino like it is still there and the market is expected to be friendly.¡¨
MIDF Sisma Securities Sdn Bhd sectoral analyst Asnul Badrisyah said that if El Nino occurs, almost all plantation companies with big estates which are efficiently managed would benefit, riding on the high CPO prices.
They include Golden Hope Plantations Bhd, IOI Corp Bhd, PPB Oil Palms Bhd, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd and Kumpulan Guthrie Bhd.
Malaysian Palm Oil Association chief executive M.R. Chandran said last week that palm oil might have escaped an immediate threat from El Nino due to the tropical downpours of late putting an end to the dry spell, but good yields can only be seen if there are regular rains until May.
Thomas Mielke, Germany-based consultant and director of Ista Mielke GmbH, an independent research organisation that publishes Oil World, said palm oil prices may move beyond RM1,650 a tonne in the second half of the year if supply is adversely affected by the recent dry season, or if mineral oil prices continue to stay above US$50 (US$1 = RM3.80) a barrel.
PPB Group Bhd = http://www.ppbgroup.com/ppb/index.shtml |
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楼主 |
发表于 20-4-2005 09:05 AM
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发表于 20-4-2005 08:00 PM
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Growth (%) 2004 2005
Turnover 18.0% 13.2%
EBITDA 0.0 0.1
EBIT 0.0 0.1
Operating profit 2.7% 8.2%
Pretax profit 3.7% -4.9%
Net profit 7.9% -2.1%
Turnover 5-yr CAGR 20.4%
EBIT 5-yr CAGR 12.9%
如果以拿最新业绩来比较（今年跟去年比较一下），
只适合保守投资者因为pe小,指数股及PPB有美好的前景.,
目前这间公司的成长只是一般而以，不能像topglove这样高成长.
会对高成长的投资者失望.
year to year basic % 及quater to quarter basic %来比较，
year to year basic % 意思拿以2003年1Q跟2004年的1Q
quater to quarter basic % 意思拿以2004年1Q跟20042Q
Q= Quater
一年有1Q,2Q,3Q and 4Q.
以(Revenue, PBT(Profit Before Tax),Nett Profit,EPS, NTA)比较
这种方法就是一般股票分析家所分析今年公司业绩的成长阶段有多少?.
他们的方法是不会差到那里去. |
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发表于 20-4-2005 10:13 PM
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我花在论坛的时间太多了，想做游客。
掌门有令不得不从。好了，出关了。
其实我研究只是皮毛，因为跟本不懂种植。只花一个礼拜的时间研究，根本就不够。所以不敢乱讲话，怕被内行人偷笑。
要真正在行业里打滚的人才能知道。
wtk75的眼光可以放十年。我比较急，三个月股价没有反应就暴跳如雷。
用短期的意见来讲长期的东西，我怕话不投机。
1.种植股最好不要看nta，要看的是它的种植地的年龄分布，面积，还有潜在的营利。
疑点: 我本身不知道种植地的价值是怎么算出来的，比如，一块地的农作物从小长到成熟，几年不用revalued???
2. EL NINO 现象的会不会来?
随着 soi index 变成正数，来的机会减少了。
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml
有专家说，黄豆的产量和EL NINO 是无关的。
但是 EL NINO 所带来的灾害性却是全面的， 鱼产减少，家畜生病，蛋白质来源的缺乏导致黄豆的价格暴涨就是这原因。
看看 mpob 提供的资料，可以注意 84 年和 98 年，当时是 ELNINO 来临年份:
http://www.geocities.com/tekyongcari/mpobfiruge.xls
尤其是 98 年，当年气候相当差，产量很少，可是价格却从 93 年的 RM890 涨到 RM2377.50
(马币暴跌也是关键)
所以这真是大红包。
3。
现在考虑外围因素，
比如
A.
马币会不会再贬值?
增值的話﹐ppboil的成長將會變成衰退。
要知道﹐棕油價格上下10%﹐net profit 就會上下 20% 左右 (沒有精確算過)
B.
soros 在搞什么?
这我就不知道， 我只知道他把全球的 期货市场 搞得天翻地覆。
变数太大了。不敢下定论。
4. 种植股的 breakeven point 是 RM800 oil price/tons ， 就是说赚幅还是存在。
5。你要清楚，net profit 成长背后的原因是什么?
到底是公司成长，还是棕油价格成长，还是马币贬值的假象，或者是油棕的年龄处在颠峰期?
就拿ppb group 来说，去年它是以换股的方式来收购 FFM 的，理所当然的，ppb group 去年的 net profit 肯定比前年强。
所以，在这种情况下， net profit growth 的功能显得比较弱了，要用 eps growth 来取代。
所以，你必须看成长到底是怎么来的，假如是 self-generated , 值得恭喜。
假如是 用enlarged share 来收购的话，有待研究。
几年来的棕油价格，(AVERAGE SELLING PRICES) ，从2000的 918 年涨到2004年的 1610。
这就是为何棕油股彪青业绩的主要原因。
其他方面，
ppboil的树龄，是处在成长期，它有40%的幼树。中规中距。(在整体行业比较上)
http://img.photobucket.com/album ... antation/ppboil.jpg
通常，你要有爆炸性成长，树龄最好是 4-7岁。
6。Profit margin / roe
我觉得 profit margin / roe无用武之地，很简单，看业务。
印尼的profit margin低。
年轻的树，profit margin高。
年头的 profit margin低(季节性)。
自己种，自己提炼，profit margin高。(赚两次)
一部分向小园主购买，然后提炼，profit margin就会变低。(赚一次)
这不是我能研究得到的项目，
******
ppboil是我喜欢的股之一，在ppb之上。最主要是管理层。
产量分析，
这是最头痛的地方，因为你要一个一个拆开来看，这还不要紧，还要分析公司的内部结构，还有海外种植面积(印尼) 。
********
短期，
比如，印尼的货币正好被地震影响，印尼盾在跌。ppboil的印尼业务很可能在这个quarter亏损。(兑换率)
更短期，你可以查最近的月产量。(要三个月)
http://202.190.247.207/EDMS/edms ... 32719C?OpenDocument
和期货价格，
http://www.mdex.com.my/statistics/downloadhd.htm
******
长期，比如5年。
Financial highlight,(2000的revenue暂时不要理，有待追究)
http://img.photobucket.com/album ... -yearsfinancial.jpg
很好，你走运了，管理层眼光独到，在几年前就预知棕油行情不错，收购了印尼的资产。同时，种植面积在增加当中。
加上马币的落井下石，买油棕真的是避风港。
而且，股票数量没有显著增加。(EPS肯定会增加) .
现在才考虑买不买，有点迟了。现在 p/e 10, 后年可能降到 p/e 5 吗? 这是关键问题。
现在的棕油价，处在历史中间，不上不下。(配合美元)
假如你问我要不要买，我本身不会买(或者买10%比率)，因为变数太大。
短期的眼光来看，买了会提心吊胆。
1．天，
看天气。这叫做听天由命。
2. 国际价格，
毫无定向。
只能说，没有买错，我总不能叫你把钱全部丢进大老千油棕公司。
我的师弟好像持有 ppb (大股东来的) ，各位不懂的话可以问他。
******
Tomteohyk，你说的对，凡是要变通。
但对于忙人来说，认真做功课实在累人。
忙人会练他们另一套适合忙人的功夫，就是不看报告，只看数据，不理业务是什么。
这也情有可原，你太费心了。(冷眼也讲过很多次了。)
当你不知道公司业务是什么的时候，懒人可以
1。只看数据，一切听天由命。
2。只买roe好的公司。
3。只信 uncle k
4。听朋友，朋友买什么你就买什么。
劝别人不买股是不可能的，因为他们信心满满，加上手上有点钱就会不舒服，一定要买完100%持股。
******
别见怪，对事不对人。 |
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发表于 20-4-2005 11:24 PM
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tekyong兄，
论知识及研究关于油棕种植领域，你真的比我强几倍。（真心话）
记得当年的无知我，由于得到你的无私指导下，才有今天的小小成果.
这点，真要非常感激你才对.
幸亏这两年来，遇到不少真正投资高手，而学习到他们的投资方法及策略.
我的投资概念非常复杂，还是别以我的话为劝告以免走火入魔。
你说的话没错.
我并不是教大家去懂得公司业务等等.
选ROE高是没错因为显示公司在某领域占有优势竞争的地位，但是通常银行，产业领域占有优势竞争的地位公司的ROE会比其他领域低。
最容易达到ROE＞15，就是科技公司因为他们不需要太多不动资产如地皮来开发新产品或新知识.
像mesdaq公司要达到ROE＞15是一件不难的事。
我有时会用roe来选股. 有时以低pe来选股，有时会以过去高成长％业绩来选股. 我的选股方法是变来变去
还别学习吧！ |
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