叶檀：欧元升美元降是欧美共谋

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有个说法是说，现在欧元升主要原因还是美国经济复苏有慢的趋势和美元作为避险工具的功能减低，并不是因为欧元强了。假如欧元真的分家成为强欧元和弱欧元，欧元就会跌三五个月。

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今天又来一篇报道讲不看好欧元的。我用红色highlight.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-11/euro-strength-damps-break-up-talk-as-german-jobs-make-trichet-see-recovery.html

Euro Strength Damps Break-Up Talk as German Jobs Make Trichet See RecoveryBy Oliver Biggadike and Anchalee Worrachate - Jul 12, 2010

(删除，省略空间，因为1000字限制）

Euro Forecasts

Strategists continue to forecast a weaker euro on concern that Europe’s fiscal crisis may expand beyond debt-laden Greece and Spain to Germany and France. Forecasts for the euro were slashed 18 percent this year against the dollar, the most of any major currency, based on the median of as many as 43 estimates. They expect the euro will trade at $1.19 by year-end.

[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Hans-Guenter%20Redeker&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Hans-Guenter Redeker[/url], head of global currency strategy in London at BNP Paribas, was one of the first to predict euro parity with the dollar as Greece’s debt woes pushed up bond yields. France’s largest bank said May 6 the European Central Bank would loosen monetary policy to avoid deflation, driving the euro down to $1 by March of 2011. Three days later, the ECB said it would buy government debt to arrest the crisis.

“We are firmly committed to our view,” Redeker said in a phone interview July 8. “Inflation is going to stay low for a long period of time, so is the interest rate,” damping demand for the euro, he said. A fair value for the euro is $1.14 and the EU would have “much more” trouble retaining membership if it stays stronger than that, Redeker said.

‘Darker Scenarios’

The euro would drop to $1.10 by year-end under a best-case scenario as the EU’s efforts, including the 750-billion-euro bailout package designed to keep borrowing costs from rising and contain the region’s budget deficits, only postpone the crisis, [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Alan%20Ruskin&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Alan Ruskin[/url], then head of foreign-exchange strategy at RBS Securities, wrote in a June 10 note to clients.

“Other darker scenarios, like contagion stemming from a de facto Greek default, will make sub-parity levels inevitable,” Ruskin said. He will join Deutsche Bank AG in August as global head of Group-of-10 foreign-exchange strategy in New York.

“The underlying fundamentals for the euro remain, unfortunately, negative for the euro,” said Mohi-uddin of UBS. “Those fundamental issues remain the sustainability of debt in countries like Greece. The imbalance in the region persists. The tighter fiscal policy will lead to weaker growth which means the ECB will have to keep its policy looser for longer. This will push the euro lower against the dollar in the second half of this year.”

Greek Deficit

Greek Finance Minister [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=George%20Papaconstantinou&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]George Papaconstantinou[/url] said last week that the country may beat a target to reduce the budget gap to 8.1 percent of gross domestic product from 13.6 percent as tax increases and spending cuts kick in and the economy contracts less than forecast.

Meeting those targets is key to Greece receiving 110 billion euros of emergency loans from euro-area leaders and the International Monetary Fund to stave off default.

Besides Germany, the euro’s depreciation has helped the rest of the euro countries, too.
Italian industrial output rose 1 percent in May from the previous month, the statistics office Istat said last week. Spain’s National Statistics Institute said July 2 that industrial production rose for a third month in May, while jobless claims declined. Ireland’s Central Statistics Office said June 30 that the economy expanded for the first time in more than two years in the first quarter.

Excessively Pessimistic

“There is a tendency from the outside to be excessively pessimistic” about Europe, European Central Bank President [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Jean-Claude%20Trichet&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Jean-Claude Trichet[/url] said at a June 8 press conference in Frankfurt after the ECB left its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 1 percent. “The figures don’t confirm this pessimism.”
Futures traders decreased bets that the euro will decline against the dollar to the least since Jan. 12, figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington show.

The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and large speculators on a decline compared with those on a gain, so-called net short amount, was 38,909 on July 6, compared with 73,670 a week earlier and a record 113,890 on May 14.

“The market has been too pessimistic on the sovereign risk issue in the euro area,” said [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Bilal%20Hafeez&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Bilal Hafeez[/url], head of currency strategy in London at Deutsche Bank, the world’s biggest foreign-exchange trader.
“One thing you have to bear in mind is that despite the debt problem in Greece and other peripheral countries, the overall fiscal deficit in the euro region is relatively small,” said Hafeez, who predicts the euro will appreciate to as high as $1.35 in six months. “Europe is going to be benefitting from a weak euro.”

To contact the reporters on this story: [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Oliver%20Biggadike&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Oliver Biggadike[/url] in New York at [url=mailtobiggadike@bloomberg.net]obiggadike@bloomberg.net[/url]; [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Anchalee%20Worrachate&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja]Anchalee Worrachate[/url] in London at aworrachate@bloomberg.net

qkp2002

根据目前的图形来看上升势还未满足 ，过后将是大跌的走势，下半年将是完全的跌势。如果手上有股票的必要查查看。不然会蒸发手上股价 。

江百虎

今天又来一篇报道讲不看好欧元的。我用红色highlight.
Euro Strength Damps Break-Up Talk as Ger ...
我们去狗狗 发表于 12-7-2010 01:38 PM

今天又来一篇报道讲看好欧元的。我用红色highlight.

所以您到底可以相信誰呢？！

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

《金融》短線走升機率高，歐元好日子來了                                                                        

• 2010-07-11 14:57
• 時報資訊
•                                                         【時報-台北電】

               
                                                                    　連弱5周的美元指數，在82-83有支撐，要大幅下跌空間有限，但走勢仍偏弱，短線呈盤整格局，而歐元則受惠於美元指數走跌激勵，短線持續走升機率高，投資人可開始分批加碼。
　　至於澳、紐幣，由於波動較大，短線不宜加碼，暫以觀望為佳。
　　匯銀主管表示，美元指數從高點88.708回測，已連續修正5周，不過，修正幅度有在縮小，如上周最高為84.826，最低來到83.673，從技術線來看，美元指數長線依舊看升，但短線走勢偏弱。
　　不過，從這波修正格局來看，美元指數在82-83有較強的支撐，短線要大幅下修的空間有限，預估本周將惠呈盤整、築底格局。
　　相較於美元指數走貶，歐元則一路走升，上周從開盤1歐元兌1.256美元，且持續走升，最高一度來到1.2711美元，現也近1.27美元，由於歐元已突破1.25美元關卡，短線持續走升機率大，只要歐元能站穩1.277美元，就有機會再向1.32美元測試，建議投資人可開始分批布局。
　　而澳、紐幣上周亦呈走升格局，且高低點差距頗大，匯銀主管說，主要是回補先前的跌幅，如澳幣上周最高來到0.8791美元，最低為0.8315美元，上下差了約400個基本點，近期澳幣匯率一直在0.81-0.90美元衡向整理，不過，近2周澳幣底部墊高，預期本周突破0.88美元機率大，但要快速大幅走升機率不大，建議投資可逢高獲利了結，只要匯率來到0.9美元，就可先出脫，至於空手者可等匯率回到0.84美元再進場。
　　至於紐幣的走勢則是跟澳幣一樣，短線走升，而且走勢會比澳幣更強，不過，紐幣近期匯率波動較大，雖然走升機會大，但不建議投資人再繼續加碼，而應以觀望為主。(新聞來源：工商時報─  記者高佳菁／台北報導)

我们去狗狗

我选看跌的，因为那是UBS和德意志银行的人说的，你那篇是台北发的。

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明天有个信心指数是很重要的，预测值是看跌的。

German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. This major survey has a history of hurting the Euro. The European debt issues that rocked the markets at the beginning of May were seen in last month’s change – a 20 point drop to 28.7 points. Also now, a drop is predicted, but it will probably be smaller, to 25.3 points. Note that the all-European figure, released at the same time, is also expected to drop, from 18.8 to 16.8 points. The German figure usually has a stronger impact.