【专题讨论】我国的外汇储备金新闻记录与讨论。

过路客

补充一点。

外汇储备，除了用来观察外资在本地的投资走向，主要是被国家银行用来稳定国家的货币，还有以货币兑换率来控制国内通膨等因素。

因此，外汇储备的高低，除了受外国机构直接以外币投资的影响，还有受以外汇交易的进出口影响。比如，某个国外商家付美元 $1000万于本地商家，本地银行把这笔钱保留进国家账户，然后另外“印刷”RM3600万（假设兑换率 1.00：3.60），转换成马币付给本地商家。（当然，这种“印刷”过程，对马币的贬值有一定影响，但国行会观察许多因素，不会让马币走势受太大影响。）

这个外汇储备，主要是国行用来应付外汇的债务、外汇交易进口贸易等。当外汇储备越高，就算外汇有较大幅度波动，本地的货币和经济体系受影响程度相对较小。

传统上，本地的工厂在年尾都会停产数日。（stop production，本地业者俗称 shut down）但今年的停产日期比往年来得长，也较频密。许多业者都半强迫员工拿无薪假期。预料未来的出口会减少。

deleverage 在11月缓慢下来，不表示回赎（redemptions）活动已经停止，而是速度暂时放缓下来。香港的外汇储备甚至还上升。

我们同样知道，世界上各个基金、投资机构的回赎潮仍旧持续。加上未来出口减少。预料外汇储备还是会持续下滑。

不过，外汇储备主要是用来制衡国家货币和经济体系（偿还外汇债务）。外汇储备出现危机，股市表现应该不会太好（投资者担心）。但外汇储备好，股市未必会一直上。

要不然，曾经我国的外汇储备那么高，国家的股市并没有一直上升。加上，中国的外汇储备那么高，为何中国股市下挫幅度仍旧那么糟糕？简单的继续提高外汇不就行了吗？外汇储备和股市筑底，其实并没有直接关系。

我是看到某报纸的财经新闻，指“马股谷底在望？”后，有感而发。

[ 本帖最后由 过路客 于 10-12-2008 11:10 AM 编辑 ]

terryhua

受教。。。。。。。

Mr.Business

新闻。

Monday December 22, 2008
Forex reserves: The more, the better?
By QUAH BOON HUAT

Accumulation of international reserves beyond the optimal level has its risks and costs

THE world has caught a bad cold. According to the October 2008 IMF World Economic Outlook Report, the world economy, battered by the most dangerous financial shock since the 1930s and by still-high energy and commodity prices, is entering a major downturn and many advanced economies are already close to or moving into recession.

The biggest worry for almost every Malaysian right now is the resilience of Malaysia’s economy. Can it ride out smoothly the global economic crisis even though half the world is already in recession?

Comments have been made that Malaysia’s economy will not slide into a recession because, among others, its international reserves are high. As at end-September 2008, Malaysia’s international reserves stood at US$107.6bil.

What are international reserves? Is it a case of “more is better?”

Also popularly known as foreign exchange reserves, international reserves are assets that a central bank holds in different reserve currencies, such as the dollar, euro and yen, and to a very much smaller extent, gold and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Special Drawing Rights. These assets are basically used to finance international transactions, to serve as a buffer stock to face unexpected payments difficulties, and to allow implementation of monetary and foreign exchange rate policies.

International reserves accumulation has been the favoured policy of most developing economies since the Asian financial crisis (1997-98). During the crisis, the scale and speed of the reversal of capital flows had resulted in sharp contractions in output and investments, credit crunches, and banking crises in several countries.

The rapid accumulation of reserves after the crisis suggests that it is a precautionary adjustment, a reflection of the desire to self insure against exposure to future sudden stops, rather than to depend on institutions like the IMF. For example, a country with a large stockpile of reserves will be able to lay to rest fears of potential defaults on foreign debt payments by the government or the private sector and, therefore, avoids being shut out of the international capital markets. In many cases, however, this precautionary motive seems to have been replaced by a strategic motive of using the reserves to manage exchange rates at a certain desired level or range.

The enormous accumulation of reserves in Asia has been so rapid that the Asian Development Bank has warned they are now well beyond the optimal levels. Reserves accumulation may over time entail risks and costs like inflationary pressure, over-investment, asset bubbles and complications in the management of monetary policy.

There is also the risk that the balance sheets of monetary authorities may face potentially sizeable capital losses. For example, not all risks may have been taken into account when the unprecedented increase in world reserves were partly used to fund the seemingly forever-growing US deficits. China is a case in point. With more than US$1.5 trillion in reserves denominated in US dollars, it has become a hostage to its debtor, i.e. the United States. China is stuck, and any hint of it moving to shift away from the US dollar in the currency composition of its reserves would be devastating. One can only guess the extent of the carnage in the financial markets and the world economy if that were to happen.

Persistent reserves accumulation suggests a strong external sector with significant trade and current account surpluses, which is certainly true for Malaysia. It has been consistently registering trade and current account surpluses for over a decade.

While a persistent trade surplus can be interpreted as a sign of export competitiveness due to rising productivity or falling costs, it is more than likely that an undervalued ringgit is the reason in Malaysia’s case, and which obviously cannot go on forever.

A persistent current account surplus in the face of large reserves, on the other hand, can be interpreted as a sign of an inherently weak domestic economy, driven mainly by exports.

According to the absorption approach to interpreting balance of payments statistics, the current account balance is the difference between national income and domestic absorption, where absorption is defined as the sum of private consumption expenditure, investment and government expenditure. A current account surplus, thus, suggests there is weak domestic demand, and that there is a glut of domestic savings.

As such, more international reserves do not necessarily mean better, and a large stockpile should not be mistaken as a sign of economic resilience. Besides, reserves accumulation entails risks and costs. Malaysia’s stockpile of reserves should thus not lull us into a false sense of economic security, especially during the current global economic turmoil with half the world already in recession and external demand expected to shrink further.

According to Bank Negara, the optimal level of reserves for Malaysia is between US$30bil and US$40bil. As Malaysia’s level of reserves is way above the optimal level, an alternative use could be found for the excess reserves to build a more dynamic domestic sector and, therefore, render the economy more resilient in the face of external shocks. In Taiwan, for example, US$15bil was allocated to banks for use in major investment projects.

# The writer is a research fellow at the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 12&sec=business

terryhua

就是说现在慢慢下跌是好事吗？

terryhua

15 DEC 2008  96USD billion
还在跌跌跌。。。。。。

hoollly

是谁说过本地股市外资是30%成交量制造者的?

Mr.Business

Embargo: Not for publication or broadcast before 1700 hours on Monday, 22 December 2008

International Reserves of BNM as at 15 December 2008
The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia amounted to RM330.4 billion (equivalent to USD96 billion) as at 15 December 2008. The reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.8 months of retained imports and is 3.4 times the short-term external debt.

clk8226

应该还会再跌!

Mr.Business

Embargo: Not for publication or broadcast before 1700 hours on Wednesday, 7 January 2009

International Reserves of BNM as at 31 December 2008

The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia amounted to RM316.8 billion (equivalent to USD91.4 billion) as at 31 December 2008. The reserves level as at 31 December 2008 has taken into account the quarterly adjustment of the foreign exchange revaluation loss, following the strengthening of the ringgit against some of the major currencies during the quarter. The reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.4 months of retained imports and is 3.3 times the short-term external debt.

For the year 2008 as a whole, the international reserves moderated by RM18.9 billion. During the first six months of the year, the reserves increased by RM75.2 billion to RM410.9 billion as at end-June, due mainly to higher repatriation of export earnings, large inflows of short-term portfolio capital as well as foreign direct investment. Subsequently, the reserves declined by RM94 billion in the second half of the year, due mainly to the reversal of the short-term portfolio capital flows as a result of the de-leveraging process by foreign investors following the global financial crisis. Nevertheless, the short-term capital outflows, which peaked in October, have shown signs of subsiding.

During the year, the cumulative foreign exchange revaluation loss amounted to RM5.8 billion, reflecting the strengthening of the ringgit against major currencies, particularly in the first and fourth quarters of 2008.

Malaysia's international reserves, which are usable and unencumbered, are expected to remain at a comfortably high level in 2009. The level of reserves would be supported by the continued trade surplus given Malaysia's diversified export markets and products as well as inflow of foreign direct investment.

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 15-1-2009 06:44 PM 编辑 ]

goodluck88

好久不见了生意佬。。。。

p/s: “汽油涨价？汽油跌价？我有话要说！”广告很烦！

紅凌

日期                USD   MYR
30-Dec-2008        91.4          316.8
15-Jan-2009        91.5          317.2
30-Jan-2009        91.3          316.8

外汇储备已经1个月半维持在91.3亿USD左右，
从2008年5月以来，外汇储备一直在减少，现在终于停止了。

刚刚看到，
大马国家银行和中国人民银行昨日宣布签署为期3年，总值800亿(人民币（400亿令吉）的双边货币互换协议。

但是Bank Negara只有91.4亿美金(316亿马币）的外汇储备，如何履行总值400亿马币的双边货币互换协议呢？
究竟双边货币互换协议的具体内容是什么呢？

hc.goh

美
国股市周二下滑，因为交易员们不再笃信美国财政部(Treasury Department)最新的方案有望逆转颓势，近期涨幅居前的金融股尾盘时段遭遇抛售。

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数下跌115.25点，至7660.61点，跌幅1.48%，回吐了周一近500点的可观涨幅。标准普尔500指数下跌16.49 点，至806.43点，跌幅2.00%，但仍较3月6日的盘中低点高21%；纳斯达克综合指数跌38.67点，至1517.10点，跌幅2.49%。

上市交易基金Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund跌39美分，至9.08美元，跌幅4.2%；但3月份以来仍累计上涨19%。美国银行(Bank of America)下跌57美分，至7.23美元，跌幅7.3%。

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)跌1.67美元，至42.10美元，跌幅3.8%；此前该行表示，今年开端良好。

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse Group)美国存托凭证跌3.31美元，至30.70美元，跌幅9.7%。

怀疑人士一直认为，住房市场和金融业企稳是经济和股市复苏的前提条件。近些天住房市场和金融业均呈现出一些初步的好转迹象。

美国联邦住屋融资局(Federal Housing Finance Agency)周二公布的数据显示，经季节因素调整后，美国1月份房屋价格较前月上升1.7%。

Mr.Business

本地股市持有权达38% 外资基金企4年半最低水平 2009/04/16 18:00:47
●南洋商报

大马交易所截至今年2月的最新资料显示，外资在本地股市的投资，写下自2003年9月以来的新低，仅达30亿美元(107亿令吉)。

“这个水平也显著低于2004年至2006年牛市之前，总值40亿美元至50亿美元(143亿令吉至176亿令吉)的外资投资基金，不过与2000年至2003年科技泡沫时期的10亿美元（36亿令吉）至30亿美元（107亿令吉）差不多。”

而外资在本地股市股市的投资基金规模，也仅占新加坡股市的一半，并比泰国股市低20%。而在过去的12个月走势来看，外资在本地股市的持股权已下跌超过5%。

目前，外资在本地股市的持有权达38%。

分析员也表示，目前，外资投资者并未参与马股的活动，因为他们所寻找的杠杆效果还没有复现，而且之前已经撤出的投资者也未准备好回来，但本地股市仍受外资投资者影响，而且比较香港、韩国及中国股市，马股表现仍低于大市。

http://www.nanyang.com/index.php?ch=7&pg=12&ac=950531

hc.goh

全世界的股傻掉...........这牛长的超快也
好象会有危险的味道...............

Mr.Business

原帖由 紅凌 于 10-2-2009 10:59 PM 发表
日期                USD   MYR
30-Dec-2008        91.4          316.8
15-Jan-2009        91.5          317.2
30-Jan-2009        91.3          316.8

外汇储备已经1个月半维持在91.3亿USD左右，
从2008年5月以来，外汇储备一直在减少，现在终于停止了。

日期                USD   MYR
13-Feb-2009        91.6         317.7
27-Feb-2009        91.1         315.9
13-Mar-2009        90.6         314
31-Mar-2009        87.8         320.7
15-Apr-2009        87.7         320.1

蚂蚁小弟

很明显的，美金继续被减持
可是有没有其他货币的资料？
是否把美金换去其他货币，比如说RMB

Mr.Business

可以看这个？

Detailed Disclosure of International Reserves as at end-March 2009
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=8&pg=14&ac=1827

无花

不可能是RMB.
因为 RMB 是非流通货币.

近期中国政府频频和多国签署交换货币政策, 就是为人民币自由竞换准备

Mr.Business

对，外资要进来的话多数还是要以美金的形式进来。各位有没有马币的走势图拿上来看看。

8两金