.

publicpang

降息预期减退　美元汇率走强
2007-6-2 18:45:50
（纽约2日电）周五此间汇市，美元兑欧元和日圆等主要货币大多上涨，因美国就业数据和制造业指数均比预期佳，降低了美国联邦储备局减息的机会。

美元兑欧元尾盘的汇率由周四之1.3453美元趋稳至1.3443美元，较早一度升值至1.3393美元，为4月10日以来最佳汇价。而美元兑日圆则由121.73日圆涨至122.06日圆、兑英镑由1.9796美元减值至1.9821美元及兑瑞士法郎由1.2254法郎涨至1.2303法郎。

美国5月新增非农就业人数达15万7000人，以及供应管理协会（ISM）公布的数据显示，制造业指数从4月的54.7上升至55.0，是2006年4月以来最高。

随着ISM报告出炉后，欧洲美元期货市场反映美国年内减息的机率从周四之32%急降至约18%。

[ 本帖最后由 publicpang 于 1-1-2008 04:46 PM 编辑 ]

publicpang

美首季房價漲幅近10年最低 - Saturday, June 02, 2007

(紐約1日訊)美國政府最新公佈的官方報告顯示，該國今年第一季房價漲幅為近10年來最低，其中，麻塞諸塞和密西根等地房價已開始下滑。

美國聯邦住宅管理局(Ofheo)週四發布一份報告指出，該國首季單一家庭住宅平均價格，較去年同期上漲4.3%，此為1997年第三季以來最低漲幅。

美聯儲局5月會議紀錄顯示，該央行官員認為，美國自去年展開的房市衰退情況較預期嚴重。而Argus Research首席經濟分析師李查則預期，Ofheo下一次公佈美國房價時，將呈現下滑局面。

果真如此，那將是三十多年來首見。他指出，目前唯一能夠消化美國房屋庫存的方式就是價格大幅修正。他預期Ofheo報告應該下一季，或者再下一季就將出現價格下跌的數據。


Copyright © 2006 - 2007 Oriental Daily Sdn. Bhd. All Rights Reserved

publicpang

美聯儲局暗示無意升息 - Saturday, June 02, 2007

(華盛頓1日訊)美聯儲局公布上次利率決策會議紀錄顯示，決策官員較看好美國經濟前景，雖然通貨膨脹威脅仍存在，但成長突然熄火的疑慮已稍微消除。

聯儲局的決策會議紀錄顯示，官員認為房屋市場惡化的情況恐怕會比預期糟，並拖累經濟發展，但通脹才是他們最擔心的問題。

會議紀錄指出：「幾乎所有與會者都認為，核心通脹仍高得讓人不安，並強調通脹有必要繼續減緩。」

此外，雖然官員仍認為經濟活動有走弱的風險，但評估后發現這些風險已稍微降低。

聯儲局3周前第7度決定讓基準利率繼續維持在5.25%，美國利率等于近1年沒有動過。


Copyright © 2006 - 2007 Oriental Daily Sdn. Bhd. All Rights Reserved

publicpang

寫4年來最差　美首季經濟成長僅0.6% - Saturday, June 02, 2007

(紐約1日訊)美國第一季經濟成長年率僅0.6%，為4年多來最差。不過最近數據顯示，企業支出已提高，庫存減少也讓製造商開始增產，經濟學家認為，這代表經濟上一季可能已落到谷底，如今已開始回升。

此外，4月營建支出意外增加0.1%，優于市場預期。美元對歐元匯率則是先跌后漲。

美國商務部31日公布上一季國內生產總值，僅比去年同期成長0.6%，不如經濟學家預估的0.8%，也是2002年末季以來最弱，甚至不到上個月初估值1.3%的一半。紐約摩根大通經濟學家費洛立表示，市場在找尋經濟成長逐漸穩固的跡象，庫存情況更有利，房市衝擊可望逐漸減少。

上一季消費支出也上修至成長4.4%，增幅為1年來最大。研究機構全球透視經濟學家貝修表示，內需成長強勁，加上庫存大幅上修，有助于次季經濟成長加速。

這次公布的數據遠不如上個月，主要是因為主管單位上次錯估貿易入超和庫存數量。今年前3個月，美國貿易入超倍增至6118億美元，幾乎相當于GDP的%比重。企業庫存水平上季以每年45億美元速度減少，與上個月估計的增加148億美元差距甚大，國內生產總值又因此少掉1%。


Copyright © 2006 - 2007 Oriental Daily Sdn. Bhd. All Rights Reserved

publicpang

INDEX VALUE CHANGE %CHANGE TIME
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 13,668.11 40.47 0.30% 06/01
S&P 500 INDEX 1,536.34 5.72 0.37% 06/01
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 2,613.92 9.40 0.36% 06/01

os

美元接下来最好强起来。
我们的出口已经连续下挫四个月。
如果美元继续疲弱。。。

publicpang

通脹不致加速　美次季經濟料續成長 - Sunday, June 03, 2007

(華盛頓2日訊)美國4月的個人支出增加，核心物價的漲幅低于預期，但個人所得意外下滑，加上5月失業率維持在近5年低點，顯示第二季經濟將持續成長，通脹不致加速。

經濟學家預測，聯邦儲備局至少未來幾月不會更動利率。

美國商務部1日表示，4月的個人支出增加0.5%，略高于經濟學家預估的0.4%，3月則成長0.4%。經濟學家說，上述數據支持聯儲局主席柏南克先前的預測，他說，今年下半年的成長會加速，但通脹仍是隱憂。

商務部31日的報告顯示，第一季的消費者支出比政府先前預估更強。芝加哥Mesirow金融公司首席經濟學家史璜克指出：「消費者支出不會擔起經濟加速成長的所有負擔，但持續韌性十足。」

另一報告顯示，美國企業主5月雇用的勞工人數超過預期，使失業率維持在近5年低點。勞工部說，美國5月增聘15.7萬人，比4月的8萬人高出許多，失業率則維持在4.5%不變。

4月的個人所得則意外下滑0.1%，為近2年首見；經濟學家原本預測個人所得會增加0.3%。

此外， 食品與能源以外的核心物價，亦即聯儲局重視的PCE物價指數上漲0.1%，不僅低于經濟學家預估的0.2%，也是聯儲局可以放心的漲幅。商務部的數據指出，4月的通貨膨脹較一年前增加2.0%，年增率創2006年2月以來最低，而且落在聯儲局設定的1%至2%容忍區間。


Copyright © 2006 - 2007 Oriental Daily Sdn. Bhd. All Rights Reserved

hoollly

美国不会经济衰退,不过会经济停滞,这停滞至少维持几年,而股价的走势会继续轻微上升,然后符合经济走势而下跌.涨幅和跌幅都有限,总体盘整.
而这2-3年内,中国会走向前所未有的大繁荣,而中国股市泡沫的结束后,就是美国和欧洲的热潮开始,只可惜,这时候的中国人已经没有钱去投资美国股市了.

publicpang

^ATX ATX 4,798.37 11:11AM ET 73.94 (1.52%) Components, Chart, More ^BFX BEL-20 4,593.56 11:26AM ET 82.87 (1.77%) Chart, More ^FCHI CAC 40 5,988.65 11:26AM ET 89.89 (1.48%) Chart, More ^GDAXI DAX 7,743.70 11:11AM ET 176.13 (2.22%) Chart, More ^AEX AEX General 538.29 11:26AM ET 6.46 (1.19%) Chart, More ^OSEAX OSE All Share 557.56 10:29AM ET 9.76 (1.72%) Components, Chart, More ^MIBTEL MIBTel 33,101.00 11:26AM ET 474.00 (1.41%) Components, Chart, More ^IXX ISE National-100 102.74 11:06AM ET 0.83 (0.80%) Chart, More ^SMSI Madrid General 1,661.70 6:20AM ET 26.41 (1.56%) Components, Chart, More ^OMXSPI Stockholm General 420.18 Jun 5 0.94 (0.22%) Chart, More ^SSMI Swiss Market 9,271.05 11:19AM ET 137.17 (1.46%) Chart, More ^FTSE FTSE 100 6,529.30 11:26AM ET 103.50 (1.56%) Components, Chart, More
Dow 13,499.89 95.57 (0.70%) Nasdaq 2,589.56 21.67 (0.83%) S&P 500 1,519.90 11.05 (0.72%)

publicpang

Stocks Fall for 2nd Day on Rate Concerns
Wednesday June 6, 10:27 am ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer  
Stocks Open Lower After European Rate Hike, Productivity Data


NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks fell for a second straight session Wednesday as U.S. investors' uneasiness about interest rates grew after a rate hike in Europe.
Data showing that productivity waned in the first quarter did little to alleviate investors' worries that the inflation-wary Federal Reserve might lean toward raising rather than lowering rates later this year.

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The European Central Bank lifted its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4 percent, as expected, and the bank's president Jean-Claude Trichet said European economic growth is significantly stronger than expected, and that inflation risks are on the rise. The comments pushed stocks in Europe lower.

In midmorning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 84.03, or 0.62 percent, to 13,511.43.

Broader stock indicators also fell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 10.29, or 0.67 percent, to 1,520.66, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 21.58, or 0.83 percent, to 2,589.65.

The decline Wednesday came a day after the three major indexes slumped after remarks from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and service sector data hinted that the economy is on the rebound, lowering the chance of an interest rate cut.

Wall Street will be keeping a close eye on the Treasury market Wednesday as the 10-year note's yield approaches 5 percent, a level not seen since August 2006. Bonds were little changed, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note flat at 4.98 percent from late Tuesday.

The remarks from the ECB made another rate increase for the euro look probable, which would likely dampen an already weakened U.S. dollar. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.

Light, sweet crude rose 20 cents to $65.81 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, ahead of the U.S. government's weekly oil inventory report.

The Labor Department's reading on first-quarter productivity came in at 1.0 percent, as expected, and was down from the previous estimate of 1.7 percent. However, unit labor costs rose a higher-than-expected 1.8 percent, stirring concerns of inflationary pressures.

Along with the productivity data, the stock and bond markets received comments from Fed officials. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, speaking in Frederick, Md., remained concerned about inflation but said the economy appeared poised for increased growth. Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig is expected to speak Wednesday afternoon in Cody, Wyo., about the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

In the most recent takeover news, shareholders of the owner of the Outback Steakhouse restaurant brand late Tuesday voted to approve a sweetened $3.2 billion offer from a private investor group. Outback rose 1 cent to $41.01.

Meanwhile, two hedge funds that own stakes in TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. are pushing the online brokerage firm to join forces with either E-Trade Financial Corp. or Charles Schwab Corp. TD Ameritrade jumped 70 cents, or 3.5 percent, to $20.65.

In other corporate news, Panera Bread Co. fell $7.47, or 12.8 percent, to $50.84 after the restaurant chain reduced its forecasts for second-quarter profits and same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year.

XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd. fell 63 cents, or 18 percent, to $2.90 after the company halted development of a hepatitis C drug candidate after determining it was no more effective than a placebo in reducing patients' viral load in an early stage clinical trial.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 4 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 265.4 million shares.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 7.63, or 0.90 percent, to 840.62.

In other overseas trading, China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2 percent, while Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 0.07 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.11 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 1.65 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 0.88 percent.

publicpang

European Stocks Drop After ECB Raises Rate; E.ON Shares Fall

By Adria Cimino

June 6 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks headed for the biggest decline in more than two months on expectations the European Central Bank will keep raising interest rates.

E.ON AG and Iberdrola SA led a drop by utilities, while BNP Paribas SA and Spain's Banco Popular Espanol SA pushed banking shares lower. Thales SA, Europe's largest defense-electronics company, fell after Societe Generale SA downgraded the stock.

Mounting concern that borrowing costs will rise in Europe helped halt a rally that sent the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index to within 6 points of a record. U.S. stocks slipped for the first time in a week yesterday after bond yields surged to a nine-month high amid signs the economy may be gaining momentum.

``We are in a period of rising interest rates and that obviously has an impact on the market,'' said Andrea Williams, a fund manager at Royal London Asset Management, where she helps manage about $2 billion.

GlaxoSmithKline Plc led drugmakers higher after a company- run study found its diabetes drug didn't increase the likelihood of heart attack and death.

The Stoxx 600 lost 1.1 percent to 392.22 as of 3:08 p.m. in London, the biggest decline since March 14. The index last dropped three days in a row during the final week of March. The Stoxx 50 slid 0.7 percent, while the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 13 nations sharing the euro, lost 1 percent.

E.ON, Iberdrola

National benchmarks fell in all of the 16 western European markets that were open. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 declined 0.8 percent, France's CAC 40 slipped 0.6 percent and Germany's DAX sank 1.3 percent.

ECB policy makers, led by President Jean-Claude Trichet, raised the benchmark rate by a quarter-point to 4 percent today, the highest since August 2001. Trichet said at a press conference following the announcement that monetary policy remained on the ``accommodative side.'' He added that ``acting in a firm and timely manner to ensure price stability in the medium term is warranted.''

The Frankfurt-based bank will increase its key rate at least once more this year, a survey of economists shows.

E.ON, Germany's biggest utility, slid 1.6 percent to 118.25 euros. Iberdrola, Spain's second-biggest power company, slipped 1.9 percent to 43.51 euros. BNP Paribas, France's biggest bank, dropped 1.5 percent to 87.75 euros. Banco Popular, Spain's third- largest, lost 1.6 percent to 14.42 euros.

Higher borrowing costs make the dividends utilities pay less attractive relative to bond yields and reduce the value of debt held by banks.

Yields on U.S. two-year notes rose to 5 percent yesterday and those on the 10-year bond climbed to 4.99 percent, as a report showed service industries in the U.S. grew at the fastest pace since April 2006.

`Pose a Problem'

``The competition of bond yields is becoming consequential and if it continues can pose a problem'' for stocks, said Emmanuel Soupre, a Paris-based fund manager at Neuflize Gestion, which manages $15.6 billion.

Thales retreated 2.9 percent to 44.19 euros. Societe Generale cut its recommendation on the stock to ``sell'' from ``hold.'' The downgrade reflects ``a risk that the group's earnings quality could be diluted as a result of a merger with Safran,'' analysts at the bank wrote in a research note.

Glaxo rose 1.2 percent to 1296 pence. An analysis of a Glaxo patient trial found that users of the company's diabetes drug Avandia had twice as many cases of congestive heart failure, in which cardiac muscle damaged by a heart attack is less able to pump blood throughout the body.

Heart Disease

The report, released today in the New England Journal of Medicine, also found that patients were at no greater risk of developing all types of heart disease when using Avandia, London- based Glaxo's second-best-selling drug.

Sportingbet Plc sank 4 percent to 53.5 pence. The Web bookmaker that owns Paradise Poker reported a third-quarter loss after a U.S. crackdown on Internet gaming forced the company to sell units that took American wagers for $1.

Zodiac SA, the biggest supplier of seats and escape chutes for Airbus SAS aircraft, added 2.3 percent to 59.01 euros. Societe Generale raised its recommendation on the stock to ``buy'' from ``hold,'' citing positive momentum in the aerospace activities and speculation about consolidation in the industry.

Vodafone Group Plc, WPP Group Plc, Linde AG, Punch Taverns Plc, Wendel Investissement, Premier Foods Plc, Bellway Plc and Debenhams Plc all trade today without the right to their latest dividends.

publicpang

伯南克：时效长于预期 美收紧房款抑制需求 2007/06/06 18:07:47
●南洋商报


（开普敦5日讯）美国联储局主席伯南克认为，收紧抵押贷款标准对楼市需求的“抑制”，时效将长于决策者的预期。

他指出，楼市下滑尚未扩散到经济的其它层面，他维持对经济“温和”增长的预测。本月的政府和行业报告显示，就业增长、制造业和个人支出加速上升，企业投资增长。

伯南克通过卫星在南非开普敦发言说：“目前住宅建设放缓显然可能仍然会拖累经济增长，时间会比原先预计要稍长一些。”由于次级贷款银行加大获得贷款难度，这将“限制楼市需求，但影响的程度难以量化。”

联储局官员多次警告，楼市是对他们预测今年经济增长将加速的一个威胁，同时他们继续认为通胀是最大风险，他们自一年前升息后就一直维持利率不变。经济学家和投资者已放弃降息预期，因有迹象显示经济其它层面显示强劲。

伯南克今天对国际货币基金组织说：“虽然核心通胀未来可能逐渐下降，但这一预测仍有较大风险。”物价上涨仍然“略有加速”。

publicpang

伯南克 到底

是我们的财神爷 还是 扫把星？

猪先生2

伯南克在自我催眠

股魔

明天马股跌15-20点应该是不能逼免了。。

^ATX	ATX	4,780.61 11:35AM ET	91.70 (1.88%)	Components, Chart, More
^BFX	BEL-20	4,587.92 12:00PM ET	88.51 (1.89%)	Chart, More
^FCHI	CAC 40	5,977.87 12:00PM ET	100.67 (1.66%)	Chart, More
^GDAXI	DAX	7,730.05 11:44AM ET	189.78 (2.40%)	Chart, More
^AEX	AEX General	537.51 12:00PM ET	7.24 (1.33%)	Chart, More
^OSEAX	OSE All Share	557.56 10:29AM ET	9.76 (1.72%)	Components, Chart, More
^MIBTEL	MIBTel	33,068.00 11:40AM ET	507.00 (1.51%)	Components, Chart, More
^IXX	ISE National-100	102.79 11:40AM ET	0.78 (0.75%)	Chart, More
^SMSI	Madrid General	1,661.70 6:20AM ET	26.41 (1.56%)	Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI	Stockholm General	420.18 Jun 5	0.94 (0.22%)	Chart, More
^SSMI	Swiss Market	9,277.49 11:31AM ET	130.73 (1.39%)	Chart, More
^FTSE	FTSE 100	6,522.70 11:36AM ET	110.10 (1.66%)	Components, Chart, More

跌幅多么惊人。。

Dow	13,479.98	115.48 (0.85%)
Nasdaq	2,585.30	25.93 (0.99%)
S& 500	1,518.09	12.86 (0.84%)

yonst

马股一开市不跌20点就有点奇怪了。。

k_c_chan

如果是真的跌。。。 那麽証明了美股比中股更能影響馬股。。。
至少是件好事。。。 因爲中股的泡沫越來越大粒了。。。