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【NEXTNAT 交流专区】 Nextnation (0096) 明天(23/05/2007) 1：2 红股
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Nextnation (0096) 明天(23/05/2007) 1：2 红股
今天关 0。53
0。53 * 2 / 3 = 0。3533333333
明天开市价应该多少?
谢谢.
[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 5-12-2007 03:15 PM 编辑 ] |
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楼主 |
发表于 22-5-2007 11:10 PM
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还有一点,可不可以帮忙解释SPEEDS?
比如说今天还买 1000 units, 明天可以卖 1500 units 吗?
谢谢. |
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发表于 23-5-2007 12:50 AM
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回复 #1 假名 的帖子
Nextnat 唉。。。不理想，０。３５ 难哪 。。。公司帐目有可疑。 小心 |
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发表于 23-5-2007 01:51 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 23-5-2007 10:18 PM
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不希望死的不明不白
Annualize net profit 2006: RM15,900,654 *4/3 = RM21200872
EPS : RM21200872 / 415,800,000 = 5.1 sen per share
PE=5 , Share Price = RM0.255
PE=10, Share Price = RM0.51
PE=15, Share Price = RM0.765
PE=20, Share Price = RM1.02
PE=25, Share Price = RM1.275
PE=30, Share Price = RM1.53
Annualize net profit 2007: RM21200872 *1.3 = RM27561133
EPS : RM27561133/ 415,800,000 = 6.62 sen per share
PE=5, Share Price = RM0.33
PE=10, Share Price = RM0.66
PE=15, Share Price = RM0.99
PE=20, Share Price = RM1.32
PE=25, Share Price = RM1.65
PE=30, Share Price = RM1.99 |
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楼主 |
发表于 23-5-2007 10:19 PM
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原帖由 DMS99 于 23-5-2007 12:50 AM 发表
Nextnat 唉。。。不理想，０。３５ 难哪 。。。公司帐目有可疑。 小心
可否告知如何可疑？ 谢谢。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 23-5-2007 10:25 PM
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首先，看看blogger怎么说：
http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2006/10/nextnation-may-benefit-from.html
Friday, October 27, 2006
Nextnation may benefit from interactive mobile games
Background
Nextnation Communication Bhd (“Nextnat”) is principally involved in the development & provision of engine/solution for mobile gaming as well as the provision of Internet and wireless technologies & related value-added services. The group has developed a full service mobile game engine for interactive mobile game development, hosting & worldwide deployment, which enables it to strengthen its foothold in this fast-growing field.
Business Expansion
To leverage on its successful development of its full service mobile game engine, the group has entered into a few ventures overseas, such as India (via a distribution agreement with Mobile2win), Indonesia (via acquisition of PT Flower and PT Semesta) and China (via investment in Often Reach Investments Limited).
Nextnation’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Ozura Sdn. Bhd. ("Ozura”) has recently been chosen as Excite Japan Co. Ltd's ("Excite Japan" first international mobile game distribution partner. Excite Japan, one of Japan's largest web portals and mobile game providers, is granting Ozura the distribution rights for its premium mobile game titles. Ozura plans to make these games available through its extensive network of distribution channels consisting of major mobile operators and distribution partners in Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines, Australia, China, India and the United Kingdom.
Recent Corporate Exercise
Nextnat has just completed a private placement of 25.2 million shares at RM0.56 each. It has also proposed to carry out a Bonus Issue of 1:2 after the completion of the private placement.
Recent Financial Results
Nextnat’s latest result fro QE31/7/06 shows good improvement in its topline & bottomline. Net profit increased by 7.8% q-o-q or 27.2% y-o-y to RM4.8 mil while turnover increased by 31.9% q-o-q or 53.9% y-o-y to RM23.5 mil. Nextnat attributed its better performance to expanded customer base & hence higher demand for its products & services. See the table below.
Valuation
Based on the last 4 quarterly EPS which amounted to 7.1 sen and the share price of RM0.645 as at October 26, the stock is now trading at a PE of 9.1 times. Given the exciting prospect of the group, I think the stock’s current PE multiple of 9.1 times is not high.
Technical Outlook
The stock is currently in a short-term uptrend line, with support at RM0.60. Overhead resistance is at RM0.65. A break above the RM0.65 level could signal the continuation of the stock’s uptrend, possibly at a faster pace. See the chart below.
Chart: Nextnat's daily chart as at Oct 20
Conclusion
Based on the exciting prospect, undemanding valuation & fairly nice technical set-up, I believe Nextnat is an attractive investment for the medium- to long-term investors. |
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楼主 |
发表于 23-5-2007 10:28 PM
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http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2007/03/nextnat-reported-steady-growth-in.html
Wednesday, March 28, 2007 Nextnat reported steady growth in topline & bottomline Background
NextnationCommunication Bhd (“Nextnat”) is principally involved in thedevelopment & provision of engine/solution for mobile gaming aswell as the provision of Internet and wireless technologies &related value-added services. The group has developed a full servicemobile game engine for interactive mobile game development, hosting& worldwide deployment, which enables it to strengthen its footholdin this fast-growing field.
Note: I've posted on this stock in October last year, but the stock has not moved up much since the post (here).
Recent Development
Inearly March, Nextnat was in the news, in an unfavorable way. One of itssubsidiaries, Nextnation Communication Berhad was penalized by theMalaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission ('MCMC') forspamming activity. Nextnat has explained that the spamming activity wasthe act of its partner content providers, as the subsidiary concernedis only a mobile application service provider. The infringement hassince been rectified & Nextnat does not expect the incidence tohave a material financial impact (go here for Nextnat's announcement on this matter).
Recent Financial results
Nextnathas just announced its result for QE31/1/2007. For that quarter, itsnet profit increased by 25.2% q-o-q or 48.2% y-o-y to RM6.4 mil whileits turnover gained 4.2% q-o-q pr 60.4% y-o-y to RM28.2 mil (see Table1 below).
Nextnat'spast 3 years' performance has been very impressive. From Table 2 below,we can see that its turnover has increased by about 50% for the past 2years while profit after tax has grown by about 33% fro the sameperiods. (Comparison for the latest FY2007 is based on an annualized 12months period).
Valuation
Basedon the last 4 quarters' results, Nextnat's full-year EPS is about 8.2sen. At a closing price of RM0.58 (as at March 28), Nextnat is nowtrading at a PE of 7 times only. This is very attractive for a companywith such a strong growth record. I think the fair PE multiple for thisstock is of at least 12-15 times, which would place the target pricefor Nextnat at RM1.00-1.20 level.
Technical Outlook
Nextnat'sshare price does not, however, reflect its otherwise good financialperformance. For the past 5 months, the share price has been in adowntrend with resistance at RM0.60. A break above RM0.60 could be thebeginning of better times ahead for this stock. Or, is it another falsemove, like the false bullish breakout in mid-February, only to befollowed by a false breakdown a few days later? I think we have to livewith that risk & still proceed to act on a BUY signal if the shareprice were to break above RM0.60.
Chart: Nextnat's daily chart as at March 28
Conclusion
Nextnatis a very attractive stock, trading at a PE of 7 times. While thetechnical outlook is nothing to shout about, I believe the stock isworth track for slow accumulation now or for buying if it break abovethe RM0.60 level. |
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楼主 |
发表于 23-5-2007 10:30 PM
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http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2007/05/nextnat-drifting-lower-ahead-of-1-for-2.html
Sunday, May 20, 2007 Nextnat drifting lower ahead of 1-for-2 bonus I have posted on Nextnat in March this year (go here),where I've recommended a BUY on this stock because of its goodfinancial performance & bright prospect. Despite the healthy run-upin the stock market as a whole, the share price of Nextnat has beendrifting lower in the past 6 months (see the chart below).
Chart: Nextnat's daily chart as at May 18 (courtesy of Tradesignum.com)
Inthe last few days, there were 2 announcements from Nextnat, which Iwould rate as positive, but they did not have the positive effect ofboosting the price. The announcements are:
- 1-for-2 bonus issue that will go 'ex' on May 23; and
- a private placement of 9 million new shares at RM0.60.
Abonus issue normally has the effect of increasing demand for the stockfrom the retail players; thus, giving the stock a boost ahead of theex-date of the entitlement. A private placement of new shares at aprice higher than the prevailing market price is deemed to be a vote ofconfidence in the stock. As stated earlier, both these 'news' did notlead to the anticipated result. Why?
One possible reason forNextnat's poor share price performance could be the concern about itsbalance sheet or financial position (see the table below). While itscurrent & gearing ratio as at January 31, 2007 appear satisfactoryat 4 times & 0.02 times, respectively; the main worry could be itsballooning trade debtors. The latter has increased from RM39.6 millionas at April 30, 2006 to RM67.1 million as at January 31, 2007. As aresult, its debtors' collection period has increased from 128 days to217 days during that period.
Since total debtors is equivalentto 87% of Shareholders' Funds, every RM1.00 write-off in debtors couldtranslate into a 87 sen drop in Shareholders' Funds. I am notsuggesting that this scenario could happen. Neither am I suggestingthat Nextnat might default on its financial commitment to its creditorsor lenders. The bulk of Nextnat's external financing is in the form oftrade credit (or, Trade Payables), which amounted to RM19.9 million asat January 31, 2007. This was well-matched by its cash-in-hand ofRM17.9 million as at the same date.
My personal feeling is thatthe debtors problem will have to be resolved by implementing strictercredit control & more vigorous debt recovery effort. In addition,the company may have to strengthen its Balance Sheet. Here, I see the 2announcements mentioned earlier as part of a 'balance sheet managementexercise', which may include a Right Issue some time over the next12-24 months, to boost up the Shareholders' Funds.
Conclusion
Fromthe above chart, Nextnat does not have a long-term trend yet as theshare price is trapped in a symmetrical triangle. It should havesupports at RM0.50/53 level. In the near term, if the share price wereto break below RM0.50, the prudent approach would be to sell off orreduce your position. If the RM0.50 level can hold up, the stock couldswing up to RM0.75, gradually. |
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楼主 |
发表于 23-5-2007 10:44 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 23-5-2007 10:50 PM
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这个有很多关于 Nextnation 的资料，在此列一个：
http://valuebursamalaysia.blogspot.com/
Sunday, May 06, 2007 Updates: Nextnation 
Nextnationhas incorporated its subsidiary in India - Nextnation Mobitech IndiaPte Lrd, via its other susididiary Code Wireless. This is in line thegroup's overseas market expansion strategies to diversify and grow therevenue base.
No doubt, Nextnation has been doing very well ingrowing overseas revenue with higher revenue recorded from Q to Q.However, the net profit margin of overseas operation remains a bigdisappointment, with only ~4%. It is totally no match to the net profitmargin from Malaysia operation, which is ~30%.
I am not sure thereason and factor behind to low overseas net profit margin. I hope themanagement will do something to improve it. I hope they will look atthe revenue from Malaysia as well, which is decreasing from Q to Q.More attention should be put in Malaysia since it has high net profitmargin. Revenue is important, however it is more important to convertthe revenue into net profit.
Meanwhile, funlogix has landed China successfully. Ozura has team up with ChinaByte tolaunch its first and exclusive tournament based mobile gaming communityportal. You can see a few Ozura's games in the portal(http://fun.mostar.on).
Nextnation is growing but the shareprice is not the case. I expect a better performance in term of shareprice in second half. Private placement should be completed by June andbonus issues should be allocated to the shareholders by this year aswell.
Cumulative net profit in this year is RM15.9mil while thefull year net profit for last year is RM16.7. With my personalexpectation of at least RM6mil net profit for the last quarter, itwould translate the full year net profit ~RM22mil. This represents anincrease of ~30% in net profit.
It should be a great year for Nextnation ... |
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楼主 |
发表于 23-5-2007 10:56 PM
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利淡：
1。高Trade Receivables (跟 Megan 一样)
2。10 May 2007 - See Poh Yee (1,000,000 Shares Disposed)
No of Shares Held After Changes:
Direct : 3,920,000 shares (1.4600%)
Indirect/Deemed Interest : 113,400,000 shares (42.2800%)
Total : 3,920,000 shares
3. Thursday, 8 Mar 2007 - Resignation of Tan Hui Ming As Member of Aud. Com
4. Difficulties in selling its placement shares
5。一直中投诉，及suspended by MCMC http://www.cmc.gov.my/mcmc/consumer/non_compliance.asp |
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楼主 |
发表于 23-5-2007 11:17 PM
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竞争者：
http://mobilebedsidenews.blogspo ... -man-who-kills.html
AKN Mtech
Mobile content and gambling results subscription service provider.
Mtouche
Using high pricing strategy. Started business as sex phone operator from Singapore, Mtouche ride on Funmobile craze by charging subscription services at premium price.
Zingmobile
A Mtouche follow ups, doing similar but smaller scale business.
Funmobile
Started off from Hong Kong as email spammer, the company uses aggressive advertisement strategy to trigger price war for content providers. Provide subscription services for mobile content.
Iguanamobile
A long term low pricing player. Also originated from Singapore doing IVR phone services. The same time we grow similar business in few countries.
MNC GoSpecial
Content provider focus on music services and grab some of the fortune from 2004-2005 gold rush.
MMode
Another content provider providing celebrity and soccer subscription services.
Astromobile
Provides all kinds of infortainment services on Astro TV. A sister company of Maxis (the operator in Malaysia). Fast catching up in subscription services from horoscope to health tips.
Gateway Providers :
---------------------------------
Macrokiosk
Gateway aggregator, servicing corporate clients and local content providers.
Nextnation
Similar to Macrokiosk, focus on music content providers.
Mobile365 (Sybase365)
Similar to Macrokiosk and Nextnation, focus on serving corporate clients and foreign content providers. |
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楼主 |
发表于 24-5-2007 12:17 AM
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Trade Receivables 高,就与同行比较：
nextnat latest quater report(till 31/01/2007)
Trade Receivables = 67,147,215
Shareholder Equity = 78,438,595
ratio = 87%
mtouche latest quater report(till 31/03/2007)
Trade Receivables = 38,326,000
Shareholder Equity = 85,731,000
ratio = 44%
aknmtech latest quater report(till 31/12/2007)
Trade Receivables = 12,958,000
Shareholder Equity = 46,839,000
ratio = 27%
真的好高，如果我说，欠钱的是 telco, 收钱应该没问题，大家一下如何？
还有，在下没会计低，请问谁可告知 128 days to 217 days 如何来？
The latter has increased from RM39.6 millionas at April 30, 2006 to RM67.1 million as at January 31, 2007. As aresult, its debtors' collection period has increased from 128 days to217 days during that period. |
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发表于 24-5-2007 11:51 AM
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Nextnat profit 虽然很漂亮， 但是它的trade receivable 太高了。 ４０ mil trade receivable almost = 2 qtrs sales revenue. 不知有多少是bad debts. 这对Ccshflow影响. Nextnat 也就所以常做 private placement. 但是做多了也就很难再找underwriter. 所以 the last private placement extand 了很多次。
最近 nextnat 要向银行申请 ５mil corporate loan, 因为交不出 debtor aging 和 debtor listing 而被银行 reject 了。
公司赚钱，但没钱给dividend , 只有给bonus issue 安慰shareholders.
以上只是我个人的见解。 我华文字打的很慢，不能写太长和太detail. 
[ 本帖最后由 DMS99 于 24-5-2007 12:10 PM 编辑 ] |
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发表于 24-5-2007 12:04 PM
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回复 #14 假名 的帖子
你的功课做得真好。
不过“欠钱的是 telco“如果是肯定的，那就应该好一点咯 |
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楼主 |
发表于 26-5-2007 02:08 PM
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mTOUCHE TECHNOLOGY BHD
Comment by TA Securities:
1Q07 came in below ourexpectations, accounting only for 11% of our full year estimates.Quarter-on-quarter (qoq), revenue declined 21% while net profit wasalso lower by 46%. The disappointing performance was largely due tolower contributions from associate companies. It was RM1.4mil in the4Q06 compared to only RM50,000 in the 1Q07. Start-up costs from itsexpansion in South East Asia also affected overall performance, asevidenced by a lower profit before tax (PBT) margin.
Following the disappointing results this quarter, we are lowering ourexpectation of contributions from associate companies to zero for FY07;we were overly optimistic before.
This effectively removes RM12mil from our FY07 earnings forecast andlowers our net profit figure to RM18.2mil from RM29.4mil previously.
We are not touching FY08 numbers as we believe mTouche’s contributionsfrom associate companies will start flowing in next year. We forecastRM12mil profit from its associates, which will come from affiliate GMOLtd (which owns a short code in China as well as a 20% stake in WisdomChoice Investments Ltd, a mobile phone content provider), Cell Cast,and recently acquired Rayson Management Ltd.
mTouche has proposed a bonus issue of up to 37.3 million shares and aproposed increase in its authorised share capital from RM10mil toRM50mil. This will be positive for mTouche’s share price; addingliquidity to a small-cap stock never hurts.
mTouche also told the media at its recent AGM that it expected toderive 80% of its revenue from markets outside Malaysia. Currently,only 50% of its revenue is from abroad.
The company is also looking to form a joint venture with a majorJapanese mobile carrier by year-end to establish itself as a fourthgeneration point-to-point (4G P2P) file-sharing content provider formobile users in South East Asia.
Recommendation:SELL, with a revised target price of RM2.26 from RM3.89 previously. Ourtarget price is based on a FY07 price earnings ratio (PER) of 12 times(x) (Mesdaq average) and a FY07 earnings per share (EPS) of 18.9 sen.mTouche has not committed any dividends; total return amounts to 9.6%,hence the downgrade from a previous buy. |
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楼主 |
发表于 26-5-2007 02:21 PM
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原帖由 DMS99 于 24-5-2007 11:51 AM 发表
最近 nextnat 要向银行申请 ５mil corporate loan, 因为交不出 debtor aging 和 debtor listing 而被银行 reject 了。
哇，这是内幕吧， 华文字打的很慢不用紧， 用英文pm我，我在翻译成华语在贴上来。内幕多多益善。
谢谢你的分享。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 26-5-2007 02:34 PM
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暂时还看不到坏的地方。唯一的是，t&r是turnover的60%。我不了解他是做什么生意，所以不能给太多意见。有2sen的dividen=6-8% of 0.33是不错的。balance sheet 也不是很差。
可以持有，建议7% of portfolio，不过建议要多了解公司行业的前景。因为it的行业是可以大上大下的，没有人可以知道会发生什么事。
还有就是因为才上市不久，没有track record,不知管理层的功力如何。
原帖由 8years 于 24-5-2007 12:04 PM 发表
你的功课做得真好。
不过“欠钱的是 telco“如果是肯定的，那就应该好一点咯
Nextnat 的生意多数是卖 mobile content,像ringtone,wallpaper,game and etc, 当手机用户通过手机买content, telco 直接charge from 用户, Nextnat 在从telco 那边收钱。所以，我蛮肯定多数的 t&r 是telco 的。
但DMS99也说：因为交不出 debtor aging 和 debtor listing 而被银行 reject 了。
所以还要多做功课。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 26-5-2007 02:42 PM
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最近 26 交易日：
跌：18天
平：5天
起：3天
不小心犯了在意股价的毛病。还有一点，由于我也有注意megan,总觉得他们的股价一样。
| 17-Apr-07 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.62 | -0.015 | 28,605 | | 18-Apr-07 | 0.62 | 0.63 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.000 | 22,022 | | 19-Apr-07 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.60 | -0.020 | 22,131 | | 20-Apr-07 | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.020 | 67,281 | | 23-Apr-07 | 0.62 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.61 | -0.010 | 26,929 | | 24-Apr-07 | 0.60 | 0.61 | 0.60 | 0.61 | 0.000 | 9,885 | | 25-Apr-07 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.60 | 0.61 | -0.005 | 31,292 | | 27-Apr-07 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.60 | -0.005 | 28,405 | | 30-Apr-07 | 0.60 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.59 | -0.010 | 20,060 | | 3-May-07 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.57 | 0.58 | -0.010 | 8,374 | | 4-May-07 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 0.58 | 0.000 | 12,462 | | 7-May-07 | 0.58 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.020 | 268,195 | | 8-May-07 | 0.60 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.58 | -0.015 | 70,519 | | 9-May-07 | 0.58 | 0.59 | 0.57 | 0.58 | -0.005 | 33,049 | | 10-May-07 | 0.59 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.57 | -0.005 | 52,793 | | 11-May-07 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.57 | -0.005 | 62,658 | | 14-May-07 | 0.57 | 0.58 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.000 | 29,486 | | 15-May-07 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.55 | 0.56 | -0.005 | 21,509 | | 16-May-07 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.56 | -0.005 | 18,656 | | 17-May-07 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.55 | -0.010 | 31,378 | | 18-May-07 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.54 | -0.010 | 12,117 | | 21-May-07 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.52 | 0.52 | -0.015 | 17,511 | | 22-May-07 | 0.52 | 0.54 | 0.51 | 0.53 | 0.005 | 45,194 | | 23-May-07 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.32 | 0.33 | -0.020 | 28,937 | | 24-May-07 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.31 | -0.025 | 19,503 | | 25-May-07 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 0.000 | 4,985 |
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