经济学人 ： 马哈迪的回归彰显马来西亚政治的悲哀

cct2050

Mahathir Mohamad’s return shows the sorry state of Malaysian politics

The former prime minister is reinventing himself as a leader of the opposition

WHEN Mahathir Mohamad spent a week in hospital last year, at the age of 91, talk naturally turned to his legacy as Malaysia’s longest-serving former prime minister. How naive. Dr Mahathir may have stepped down in 2003 after 22 years in office, but he has hardly been retiring in retirement. His constant sniping helped topple his immediate successor, Abdullah Badawi, who lasted until 2009.

Now the old warhorse is picking a fight with Najib Razak, the prime minister since then and now leader of Dr Mahathir’s former party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), which has run Malaysia for the past 60 years. Dr Mahathir has registered a new political party and persuaded Pakatan Harapan, the fractious coalition that forms Malaysia’s main opposition, to admit it as a member. Now Pakatan is debating whether to make Dr Mahathir the chairman of their coalition—and, perhaps, their candidate for prime minister at elections which must be held within 13 months. Having long said that he would not be returning to parliament, Dr Mahathir has lately been hinting that he would consider another stint in the top job.


It is difficult to imagine a more unlikely turn of events. The original incarnation of the coalition Dr Mahathir might soon be running was formed in the late 1990s to oppose his own interminable rule. Its founder, Anwar Ibrahim, was Dr Mahathir’s deputy until the latter sacked him during a power struggle; he was later jailed on sham charges of corruption and sodomy. The current government’s methods are copied directly from Dr Mahathir’s playbook. Since 2015 Mr Anwar has been back in prison following a second sodomy conviction, this one just as dubious as the first. The reversal of the authoritarian turn Malaysia took under Dr Mahathir is one of Pakatan’s main objectives.

What makes all this even tougher to stomach is that Dr Mahathir’s conversion to the opposition’s cause looks disturbingly incomplete. Though he is hobnobbing with former enemies, the old codger still finds it difficult to apologise for the excesses of his tenure. Many of his views remain wacky: in May he told the Financial Times that he still thinks the American or Israeli governments might have arranged the attacks of September 11th 2001. Can Malaysia’s opposition really find no more palatable leader?

These are desperate times, retort Dr Mahathir’s supporters. Since 2015 news about the looting of 1MDB, a government-owned investment firm from which at least $4.5bn has disappeared, has dragged Malaysia’s reputation through the muck. American government investigators say that 1MDB’s money was spent on jewellery, mansions, precious artworks and a yacht, and that nearly $700m of it went to the prime minister. Mr Najib says he has not received any money from 1MDB, and that $681m deposited into his personal accounts was a gift from a Saudi royal (now returned). He has kept his job, but only after replacing the deputy prime minister and the attorney-general.

One might expect this scandal to propel Pakatan into power at the coming election, but instead the opposition looks likely to lose ground, perhaps even handing back to UMNO and its allies the two-thirds majority required to amend the constitution. This bizarre reversal has much to do with Malaysia’s regrettable racial politics: the Malay-Muslim majority largely favours the government and the big ethnic-Chinese and -Indian minorities tend to vote against it. Mr Najib has baited an Islamist party into renewing calls for more flogging for moral lapses, forcing them to leave Pakatan. The split in the opposition will lead to lots of three-candidate races, in which UMNO will romp home.


Put in this context, Dr Mahathir’s reappearance is a godsend. It stands to transform Pakatan’s chances by granting access to a broad swathe of rural constituencies that they had previously thought unwinnable. Many Malays have fond memories of the booming economy of Dr Mahathir’s era (they overlook its crony capitalism and his intolerance for dissent); in their eyes, he put Malaysia on the map. As coalition chairman, Dr Mahathir might also bring some order to Pakatan’s noisy council meetings. His backing could be invaluable after a narrow victory or in a hung parliament, when UMNO’s creatures in the bureaucracy might be expected to put up a fight.

All these benefits could probably be obtained without offering to make Dr Mahathir the prime minister. But he may be the only front man upon whom most of the coalition can agree. That role had previously fallen to Mr Anwar, but it has become clear to all but a few holdouts that he cannot continue to manage the quarrelsome coalition from his cell. Voters are not sure whether to believe Pakatan when it says that, should it win, it will find some way to catapult Mr Anwar out of his chains and into the country’s top job. Nor are they much inspired by the notion of accepting a seat-warmer to run the country while this tricky manoeuvre takes place.

It could be worse
This is a depressing mess, even by Malaysia’s dismal standards. The opposition bears no blame for the dirty tricks which, over several shameful decades, the government has used to hobble Mr Anwar and many others. But by failing to nurture—or even to agree upon—the next generation of leaders, they have played straight into UMNO’s hands.

It is possible that the thought of hoisting Dr Mahathir into the top job will at last force the coalition to thrust a younger leader to the fore (some suspect that this is the outcome that Dr Mahathir, a shrewd strategist, has always had in mind). But it is also possible that, facing only uncomfortable options, they will end up making no decision at all. Some in Pakatan seem happy to barrel into the next election without telling voters who will lead Malaysia should they win. That might seem like pragmatism, but it is really just defeatism.






马哈迪为希盟首相人选 经济学人：很悲哀但别无选择


前首相敦马哈迪是否应该成为反对党希望联盟执政的首相人选，爭议不断。英国《经济学人》认为，现年91岁的马哈迪被反对党视为下届首相人选，其实彰显了希望联盟内部的混乱局面。

而事实上，甚至还有人民公正党的成员认为，若希盟赢得来届大选，因鸡奸罪入狱的公正党实权领袖拿督斯里安华，仍可能成为首相。

《经济学人》这篇题为〈马哈迪的回归彰显大马政治的悲哀〉的评论文章指出，由于无法推举出下一届首相人选，希盟已完全被巫统掌控。

该杂志毫不客气地指出，即使是按照马来西亚“悲哀的标准”，选择马哈迪再度出任首相是一个“令人绝望的混局”。且政府多年来，想方设法牵制安华和其他领袖，反对党却对该些肮脏的伎俩无能为力。

《经济学人》还推测，马哈迪会成为首相的这一构思，最后或会迫使希盟推举一名年轻领袖，甚至怀疑这就是马哈迪所要实行的精明策略。

很难决定因为选谁都不合适

“但也可能反对党会因觉得所有选择都不合适，最终没有作出任何决定，反对党部分成员看似很乐意立刻进入选举状态，却无法告诉选民赢得大选后，谁会成为首相。”

“此举可能看起来像实用主义（Pragmatism），但实为只是个失败主义（Defeatism）。”

《经济学人》也提出疑问，反对党是否真的无法推举更可靠的领袖呢？文章也引述马哈迪支持者言论说，这是沮丧的时刻，因此才需要该些措施。

马哈迪近日也暗示，可能考虑担任这重要职位。文章则表示，很难想象反对党首相人选还有何些转机。

文章并提醒，反对党联盟或会回到1990年刚成立时的原形，以反对马哈迪无止尽的统治。

“更痛苦的是，马哈迪转向反对党的举动令人不安，虽然他选择与前政敌合作，但这资深领袖还是没有为他在任时的过分行为道歉。”

老马是“上天的恩赐”？

《经济学人》指出，有人或预期一马公司（1MDB）弊案可协助希盟在来届大选获得更多力量；但情况并非如此，相反的，反对党看起来像已失去优势，最后可能导致巫统和其盟友赢得2/3多数议席。

“这不寻常的逆转，应该与大马种族政治有关，多数马来穆斯林较倾向于政府，而其他民族如华裔和印裔则倾向投反对票。”

“首相拿督斯里纳吉也间接导致伊斯兰党脱离反对党联盟，反对党的决裂会让巫统轻易取胜。”

“所以马哈迪的再次出现像是‘上天的恩赐’，因他可能会让反对党有机会接触乡村社区的选民，即该些反对党之前认为无法赢得支持的群体。”

许多马来人还记得马哈迪时代经济蓬勃发展的时刻，在他们眼里，是马哈迪提高了大马在世界的知名度。

《经济学人》指，若作为希望联盟主席，马哈迪可能会把希盟内部的争议摆平和理顺。“如果巫统内部出现人事斗争，导致反对党险胜或出现悬峙国会（Hung Parliament）的话，那么有马哈迪这后盾是非常宝贵的。”

“即使不让马哈迪担任首相，他的存在也能让反对党获益。但他也可能是希盟中，唯一能获得最多认同的代表人物。”

lhchew

在朝的贪官污吏，何尝不是马来西亚人民的悲哀！

解铃还须系铃人，倒天秤，用老马！
经济学人都说了，虽然很悲哀，但别无选择了。

逍遙

经济学人 懂个屁

马哈迪的时代 他在执政党 新加坡在马国的下面
现在马哈迪是在反对党 如果他执政 马国变成在新国下面

由马哈迪开始 再由马哈迪终结 符合天道

loongken

悲哀好过利益钱财进ㅡ步被蚕食。

cct2050

逍遙 发表于 1-7-2017 12:02 PM
经济学人 懂个屁

马哈迪的时代 他在执政党 新加坡在马国的下面
现在马哈迪是在反对党 如果他执政 马国变成在新国下面

由马哈迪开始 再由马哈迪终结 符合天道

经济学人是屁

你比它更厉害

你是屁皇

李国锋

JJDAP快来护主。

逍遙

cct2050 发表于 1-7-2017 12:06 PM
经济学人是屁

你比它更厉害

你是屁皇

马哈迪是国阵与反对阵线的共主 马国全民的救星 发展中国家的偶像 。。。

经济学人算是什么臭屁 一年的营业额 怕不够给马哈迪塞牙缝

bkkt09

老马回归后，不懂会不会再次下令国行炒外汇

用来回购proton, 然后要全民津贴

李国锋

经济学人打脸汉奸林，现年91岁的马哈迪被反对党视为下届首相人选，其实彰显了希望联盟内部的混乱局面。

cct2050

loongken 发表于 1-7-2017 12:05 PM
悲哀好过利益钱财进步被蚕食。

马哈迪家族每年通过私有化公司大吃特吃人民血肉，一年 500 亿以上

纳吉输 10 条街

李国锋

cct2050 发表于 1-7-2017 02:03 PM
马哈迪家族每年通过私有化公司大吃特吃人民血肉，一年 500 亿以上

纳吉输 10 条街

老马任何一个儿子都有几百间公司。

李国锋

反对党部分成员看似很乐意立刻进入选举状态，却无法告诉选民赢得大选后，谁会成为首相。

JJDAP一定会说到时才看。

CjHyMC

这是战略，懂吗？这是精妙无比的骑马杀鸡之策啊。

哪里是你们这些愚昧无知的国阵愚民所能了解的？
而且，经济学人又怎么了？经济学人就不会看走眼么？同样是人，人会犯错的，会看走眼的。
【逃】

lumixcer

戴帽喈阿伯系乜水？

李国锋

CjHyMC 发表于 1-7-2017 04:37 PM
这是战略，懂吗？这是精妙无比的骑马杀鸡之策啊。

哪里是你们这些愚昧无知的国阵愚民所能了解的？
而且，经济学人又怎么了？经济学人就不会看走眼么？同样是人，人会犯错的，会看走眼的。
【逃】

以前与回教党同床异梦够说是战略，再听你讲华人就去荷兰了。

情牵軒尼詩

最大的问题,就是在于经营模式。
老大的操盘手段和思考方针完全是过去试,加上东方思想较保守的因素,缺乏了大胆创新扣思和不勇于承担风险,所以处在被动的局势。
老大棋子左膀右肩全部都是只会打打杀杀的uncle级人马,在这讲系统和策略的时代完全是out了。人家国家上岸已经是社团,这里还维持着那老派的黑社会。
更好笑得是现在衰到要把一个过完气的前任坐管推荐上台,这是个什么玩意儿?
金子招牌如果安稳挂,发掘人才和眼见才是首要,当然保留一些见风史陀的天才也是必要的,但相比前者,后者是乎无关痛痒。
所以,把Uncle升级股东,让真正有才能的人才执行才是王道。霸道最终只能自刎于乌江。

情牵軒尼詩

逍遙 发表于 1-7-2017 12:02 PM
经济学人 懂个屁

马哈迪的时代 他在执政党 新加坡在马国的下面
现在马哈迪是在反对党 如果他执政 马国变成在新国下面

由马哈迪开始 再由马哈迪终结 符合天道

Relax....人家如果没有实际的data,应该不敢在你面前放屁....哈哈哈

逍遙

情牵軒尼詩 发表于 1-7-2017 07:05 PM
Relax....人家如果没有实际的data,应该不敢在你面前放屁....哈哈哈

呵呵 他们是经济学人 不是政治学人
经济他们还可以 政治就未必了

情牵軒尼詩

逍遙 发表于 2-7-2017 07:42 AM
呵呵 他们是经济学人 不是政治学人
经济他们还可以 政治就未必了

大哥,经济与政治有着十分大的关联啦,不信你问问行医的老马吧。治人靠的是医术,治国靠的是经济。

CjHyMC

李国锋 发表于 1-7-2017 06:59 PM
以前与回教党同床异梦够说是战略，再听你讲华人就去荷兰了。

民联/希盟的失策，能叫失策么？
代表世间真善美的希盟是绝对不会做出错误的决策的，就算有。。。
那一定是别人的错。一定是无耻的国阵的阴谋，一定是无节操的中立的不实之声，一定是没良心的媒体的污蔑之词。