分析San Miguel吃Esso大宗的票

hauzi302

首先，从Esso在Bursa的两个announcement着手来看：第一个：
ANNOUNCEMENT PURSUANT TO PARAGRAPH 10:08 OF THE MAIN MARKET LISTING REQUIREMENTS
- NEW TRADEMARK LICENSE AGREEMENT BETWEEN ESSO MALAYSIA BERHAD AND EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION

Esso Malaysia Berhad (“EMB”) has entered into an a new Trademark License Agreement (“New TLA”) with its ultimate holding company Exxon Mobil Corporation of the United States of America.

EMB has been a party to a Petroleum Retail Products Trademark License Agreement (“1995 Agreement”) with Exxon Corporation since January 1, 1995 under which EMB was granted the right to use the “Esso” and “Exxon” trademarks and service
marks.

The New TLA provides a more comprehensive list of Exxon Mobil Corporation’s
trademarks and service marks that may be used by EMB and provides a standard form of the applicable terms and conditions. The terms and conditions of the New TLA are essentially the same as the 1995 Agreement. Under the New TLA, the basis to determine the amount of Fuels Royalty and Lubricants Royalty which EMB will be required to pay Exxon Mobil Corporation will be similar to the basis used to pay Exxon Corporation under the 1995 Agreement. EMB needs to have the continuing right to use the “Esso” and “Exxon” trademarks and service marks for its business operations; thereby necessitating the execution of the New TLA.

Based on the above, the Board Audit Committee at its meeting on August 16, 2011 considered the New TLA, and determined that the New TLA is in the best interest of EMB as it is fair, reasonable and on normal commercial terms, and is not detrimental to the interest of the minority shareholders.

The Board of Directors at its meeting on August 16, 2011, concurred with the views of the Board Audit Committee and resolved that the New TLA was in the best interest of EMB.

Exxon Mobil Corporation through its wholly owned subsidiary, ExxonMobil International Holdings Inc (“EMIHI”), is the owner of 65% of the issued share capital of EMB.
EMIHI is the only substantial shareholder of EMB. Mr Hugh Thompson, Puan Fatimah Merican and Puan Faridah Ali are Directors of EMB and have shares in Exxon Mobil Corporation that were acquired via the equivalent of a share option scheme; the details of which have been disclosed in the Annual Report. Apart from the above, no Director or major shareholder or persons connected with a Director or major shareholder has any direct or indirect interest in the said New TLA between Exxon Mobil Corporation and EMB.

This announcement is dated August 16, 2011.

Trademark License Agreement - A trademark license is an agreement between a trademark owner (the "licensor" and another person or business entity (the "licensee" in which the licensor gives permission to the licensee to use its trademark or trademarks in commerce.


从以上来看，Exxon Mobil（母公司）和Esso的雇主模式已经改变成为TLA，也就是Esso往后将“借用”Exxon Mobil的名字继续卖油。












第二个，Maybank的，正式宣布San Miguel的proposal (注意，这只是proposal) - 吃下为数65% (1725500000) ordinary share。注：Esso拿来算EPS的票数为270000000。

We wish to announce that Esso Malaysia Berhad (“EMB”) has received this evening a copy of a press notice dated 17 August 2011 from San Miguel Corporation (“SMC”) on SMC’s proposed acquisition of 175,500,000 ordinary shares of EMB representing 65% voting shares of EMB from ExxonMobil International Holdings Inc. pursuant to a sale and purchase agreement executed on 17 August 2011(“Proposed Acquisition”).

According to the press notice, as SMC’s holding of the voting shares of EMB will increase from nil to 65% upon completion of the Proposed Acquisition, SMC will be required to extend a mandatory take-over offer to the remaining shareholders of EMB in accordance with the Malaysian Code on Take-Overs and Mergers 2010. Completion of the Proposed Acquisition is subject to the fulfilment of certain conditions precedent.

A copy of the said press notice is attached below.

We will make further announcements at the appropriate times when there is any material development on this matter.

This announcement is dated 17 August 2011.

65%，以每股RM3.5吃下，看似San Miguel暴赚，以每股股价来看确实是如此，可是，配合8月16号第一个announcement来看，有可能赚到的是ExxonMobil，原因很简单，现在你一个啤酒厂想吃我在马奶下整个operation，我当然不可能傻傻卖给你，560个油站和port dickson的refinery plant虽然没有很够力，可是也没有很烂，不可能平白无故只是RM3.5/share卖给你这么简单。可是如果进入所谓的Trademark License Agreement，每几个月或者每年，San Miguel得还Esso执照费，这笔交易，毫无疑问Exxon是占上风的（如果我的推测正确）。


san migue要diversify，问题是本身完全没有经营油站的经验，所以他是一定要esso的人继续留着，所以看回第一个announcement就能明白事情的推演。




还有和minority shareholder有关的事情，如果看回Maybank的announcement （http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmsweb.nsf/all/151D20A44B322C27482578EF0037C704/$File/Notice%20from%20Maybank.pdf）
在第一页第一个点，San Miguel只是吃65%，以每股RM3.50的价格吃65%，第二个点，因为65%所以根据不知道哪一个law，剩下的35%必须强制性吃到完，可是，重点是，散户的票San Miguel可以选择出比当日股价还要来得高的价格，可是它选择不宣布。理由很简单，它如果设定一个比原股价高的价格吃完散户的票的话，它就理所当然得付更多的钱在这次收购战中；但是如果散户自己蠢，以为上错车而把股价烂价卖掉，那么到时候它吃剩下的票，那个烂价，它一定是一边喝着他的san miguel,一边心里大笑你们这些笨蛋！




所以，结论就是，这是一个很聪明的收购法，他不拔刀，你们就已经先切腹自杀

师兄

我相信这里很多投资者都有同一个想法，那就是。。。

只要大股东没强制收购，手上的股票都不会卖掉。(除非是套利的)

hauzi302

如果一切顺利，搞不好San Miguel在经营到差不多以后，又在重新IPO，每股par value，RM1.00，10亿股IPO，到时候平白无故又赚了10亿。

hauzi302

还有一个可能，最后Exxon不接受这项收购献议，可是暗地里偷偷吃票

Alfredaun

回复 1# hauzi302


    感谢LZ清楚的分析，之前我是雾里看花，现在明白了！

lyehee18

那就买几张来玩玩

lyehee18

买进3.950三张,希望下来是有惊喜

vitaminm

首先，从Esso在Bursa的两个announcement着手来看：第一个：
ANNOUNCEMENT PURSUANT TO PARAGRAPH 10:08 OF ...
hauzi302 发表于 18-8-2011 09:31 PM

有个网友说，SM可以强制性的用RM 3.50来吃散户的票，这样说是不对的是吗？请问？

hauzi302

有个网友说，SM可以强制性的用RM 3.50来吃散户的票，这样说是不对的是吗？请问？
vitaminm 发表于 19-8-2011 10:40 AM

上面已经讲了
1. SM "献议"用Rm3.50吃65%的票，可是它没有讲强制性RM3.50吃散户的票
2. 因为某某收购的law，余下的35%它必须吃到完，可是它没有标明用“多少钱”来吃


所以分别在于：强制性可是并没有透露多少钱吃余下35%的票

hauzi302

买进3.950三张,希望下来是有惊喜
lyehee18 发表于 19-8-2011 10:30 AM

买卖自负

兰州烧饼

无论楼主分析的是否正确，都要给个“赞”。

原因是这里很久没出过好文章了。

feyn402

我也觉得是时候的了。。。不过这个股我买不到多～放弃～ 玩ace算了

streamleaf

楼主，请问这分析合理吗？ （老鸭拷来的）谢谢！

1) On 30th March 2010, Esso (EMB) actually claim ignorance after an article "ExxonMobil mulling Esso privatisation" that appeared at page 1 of the Malaysian Reserve on Tuesday March 30, 2010. This is also after UMA as price shot up 20 sens from RM2.50 the previous day to RM2.70 with high volume if compared to last 30 days.

2) The Maybank announcement on 17th August 2011, if you read the conditions of the takeover price. The 'Final' price for the 65% of EMB price is NOT RM3.50, that is the "Initial" price, it may be lower or higher depending on Fact (3).

3) "Final" price will be adjusted after considering all capital "Contributions" and "Distributions" from the date 1st January 2010. Can you see the link with Fact (1)? This is for the take-over of the company from the major shareholders, not the Mandatory GO.


Now let's calculate a bit based on my interpretations. Correct me if I'm wrong, mine is all char kuay teow accountings standard haha.

The valuations and initial price of Rm3.50 for Esso (EMB) is based on Jan 2010. Which is why, they will adjust the price after all the distributions and contributions are calculated all the way from 1st January 2010 to current SPA on 17th August 2011.

Based on most recent report;
Shareholder equity on 1st Jan 2010 is 513.243 mil
Shareholder equity on 30th June 2011 is 885.811 mil

Difference of 372.568 mil worth of contributions (equity) after subtracting distributions (dividends) paid.

Per share;

372658 mil equity / 270000 mil shares = 1.38 per share

Estimated Current valuations is,

RM3.50 + RM1.38 = RM4.88 per share for the 65% majority shares

Estimated because it's based on June 2011 results, contributions in July and August might be added but these figures are not available publicly. So it can still be lower or higher than RM4.88 based on their profits or loss in July and August.

BUT....

For the mandatory General Offer, normally the offeror needs to offer the same Final price as the 65%, but they decided that the "Final" price is only fixed after the date the Sales & Purchase Agreement becomes "un-conditional", meaning when there is enough acceptance of their price based on what they offered the 65%.

This would mean that the 35% will get some further appreciation of the value (another month of contributions?) though might not much.

(TL,DR)

Conclusion
My novice opinion is the offer price will be revised up to estimated RM4.88 when the adjustments are done. The MGO will yield a higher than the estimated RM4.88 offered to the 65%.

Offer is not Rm3.50 as stated, because that is the Jan 2010 valuation which is why it is announced that the adjustments on contributions will back-date from 1st Jan 2010.

EXXON parent was already in discussion to sell in early 2010 and was leaked to media but Esso Malaysia being their kuli is not aware of it and claim ignorance to UMA.

hauzi302

August 17, 2011 08:57 AM Eastern Daylight Time
ExxonMobil Affiliates Sell Shares of Malaysian Downstream Businesses to San Miguel Corporation

Includes the 88 kbd Port Dickson refinery and impacts 560 Esso and Mobil branded retail stations

• Agreements with San Miguel Corporation for sale of Refining and Fuels Marketing businesses in Malaysia
• Agreements will not impact ExxonMobil’s Upstream oil and gas operations or interests in Malaysia

IRVING, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--ExxonMobil affiliates and San Miguel Corporation (SMC) have reached agreements for the sale of ExxonMobil’s interest in three businesses operating in the Malaysian Downstream petroleum sector.

The agreements includes ExxonMobil’s 65% stake in the publicly traded company Esso Malaysia Berhad (EMB), which operates the Port Dickson refinery, as well as its wholly-owned ExxonMobil Malaysia Sdn Bhd (EMMSB) and ExxonMobil Borneo Sdn Bhd (EMBSB) affiliates which are involved in the retail, industrial and wholesale and aviation fuels businesses.

These refining, distribution and fuels marketing businesses will continue to operate as they do today under the new shareholder. - 我的理解，SM肯定完成了takeover

The transaction has no impact on ExxonMobil’s Upstream interests in Malaysia, where it is active in petroleum and natural gas exploration and production through its affiliate ExxonMobil Exploration and Production Malaysia Inc. (EMEPMI). Also excluded from this transaction are the marketing and sales of chemicals, lubricants, and asphalt products, and the operations of the ExxonMobil Kuala Lumpur Business Support Center.

ExxonMobil has a long and proud business history in Malaysia, dating back to 1893. Today’s announcement marks a refocusing of its operations, but it remains committed to Malaysia as a producer and supplier of crude, lubricants, asphalt, waxes and chemical products.

The numerous physical assets in these three companies include the Port Dickson refinery (88kbd capacity), equity interest in 10 fuel distribution terminals (7 active), approximately 560 branded retail fuel sites (420 company owned), as well as ExxonMobil’s Industrial & Wholesale and Aviation fuels businesses. The Esso and Mobil brands used in the marketing of fuels products, including their associated marketing programs, will remain in the market place for up to three years to facilitate San Miguel Corporation’s transition to a new retail fuels brand.

San Miguel Corporation is a Philippines business conglomerate and the parent company of Petron, the largest oil Refining & Marketing company in the Philippines.

The agreements with San Miguel Corporation were executed by ExxonMobil International Holdings, Inc, and Mobil International Petroleum Corporation. Formal change in control of the three impacted ExxonMobil affiliates, subject to regulatory review, is anticipated to occur in the first half of 2012. - 拉拉杂杂的接收工作大概会在2012上半年启动

About ExxonMobil

ExxonMobil, the largest publicly traded international oil and gas company, uses technology and innovation to help meet the world’s growing energy needs. ExxonMobil holds an industry-leading inventory of resources, is the largest refiner and marketer of petroleum products, and its chemical company is one of the largest in the world. For more information, visit exxonmobil.com

About San Miguel Corporation

SMC, based in the Philippines, is a highly diversified conglomerate, contributing an estimated 5% of Philippine gross domestic product. One of Southeast Asia’s leading corporation, SMC’s businesses range from beverages and food to petroleum, power, energy and infrastructure. Its 68%-owned subsidiary Petron Corporation, is the largest integrated oil refining and marketing company in the Philippines, with crude distillation capacity of 180,000 barrels per day and over 1,700 service stations across the Philippine archipelago.

Contacts

Exxon Mobil Corporation
Downstream Media Line, 703-846-4467

hauzi302

楼主，请问这分析合理吗？ （老鸭拷来的）谢谢！

1) On 30th March 2010, Esso (EMB) actually claim ig ...
streamleaf 发表于 19-8-2011 10:53 AM

他的分析也对，可是你看他conclusion讲的，会revise到RM4.8，可是笨蛋散户把股价拉低到多少？RM3.9 !

streamleaf

昨天 3.90 - 4.30 的 一千四百万股的成交量，不知道是谁在吸票
buy rate 一度还超过 50%...... 但丢票的应该都是散户吧........

streamleaf

LTAT 还没放弃

LTAT masih minat ekuiti ESSO
Oleh Ahmad Farizal Hajat
ahmadfarizal@bharian.com.my
2011/08/19

BANGUNAN LTAT di Jalan Bukit Bintang akan membuat tawaran beli 65 peratus ekuiti ESSO.

Tabung dana pencen kemuka tawaran balas pada harga RM5.20 sesaham

LEMBAGA Tabung Amanah Tentera (LTAT) masih berminat mengambil alih 65 peratus ekuiti dalam ESSO Malaysia Bhd daripada ExxonMobil International Holdings Inc (ExxonMobil) meskipun konglomerat Filipina, San Miguel Corp sudah melengkapkan perjanjian jual beli (SPA) dengan syarikat induk ESSO Malaysia itu kelmarin.
Pengurus dana pencen itu dikatakan akan mengemukakan tawarannya kepada ExxonMobil dalam tempoh terdekat dengan menawarkan harga sekitar RM5.20 sesaham atau nilai keseluruhan hampir RM1 bilion.
Harga tawaran LTAT itu adalah 27.76 peratus lebih tinggi berbanding harga penutup saham ESSO Malaysia di Bursa Malaysia semalam, iaitu RM4.07 sesaham.

“Meskipun San Miguel memeterai SPA dengan ExxonMobil, ia tidak bermakna penjualan itu sudah dimuktamadkan kerana janji niaga itu masih perlu mendapatkan beberapa kelulusan sebelum boleh diselesaikan.

“Berikutan itu LTAT akan mengadakan perbincangan dalaman bagi merangka strateginya untuk membuat tawaran balas dalam tempoh terdekat ini.

“Apa yang penting LTAT masih berminat mengambil alih 65 peratus ekuiti dalam ESSO Malaysia itu,” katanya kepada Berita Harian di Kuala Lumpur semalam.
Difahamkan, pengambilalihan ekuiti anak syarikat gergasi minyak dan gas berpangkalan di Amerika Syarikat itu bagi memantapkan lagi operasi peruncitan minyak dalam kumpulan LTAT, yang kini dikendalikan oleh Boustead Holdings Bhd menerusi rangkaian stesen minyak jenama BHPetrol (BHP).

Kelmarin, syarikat Filipina yang berpangkalan di Mandaluyong City, Metro Manila itu melengkapkan SPA dengan ExxonMobil untuk mengambil alih kepentingan ekuiti ESSO Malaysia itu pada harga AS$206.020 juta (RM614.25 juta) atau RM3.50 sesaham.

Harga itu adalah 29 peratus lebih rendah berbanding harga ESSO Malaysia pada sesi akhir dagangan di Bursa Malaysia kelmarin, iaitu RM4.95 sesaham.

Bersandarkan harga semasa saham ESSO Malaysia, penjualan 65 peratus ekuiti itu sepatutnya pada harga kira-kira RM760 juta.

Berikutan tawaran dikemukakan San Miguel pada harga lebih rendah daripada harga pasaran semasa itu, saham ESSO Malaysia menjunam 17.7 peratus pada akhir dagangan semalam.

Sumber itu berkata, antara strategi yang bakal dikemukakan LTAT bagi menjayakan pengambilalihan itu termasuk menjual loji penapisan milik ESSO Malaysia di Port Dickson, Negeri Sembilan kepada ExxonMobil selepas membeli kepentingan 65 peratus itu, dan menggunakan hasil penjualan itu untuk membuat pembayaran dividen khas kepada pemegang saham.

Katanya, menerusi cara itu ExxonMobil boleh keluar daripada perniagaan peruncitan petroleum tetapi kekal dalam perniagaan terasnya, penapisan minyak.

henrytanck

LTAT 还没放弃

LTAT masih minat ekuiti ESSO
Oleh Ahmad Farizal Hajat
ahmadfarizal@bharian.com ...
streamleaf 发表于 19-8-2011 01:45 PM

老兄，你算得到2010年ESSO的NTA到底是多少吗？

我从他的annual report算到2010年的NTA是5.610，但是我从证券行那里看到的NTA是2.81.

outpace

首先，从Esso在Bursa的两个announcement着手来看：第一个：
ANNOUNCEMENT PURSUANT TO PARAGRAPH 10:08 OF ...还有和minority shareholder有关的事情，如果看回Maybank的announcement （http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmsweb.nsf/all/151D20A44B322C27482578EF0037C704/$File/Notice%20from%20Maybank.pdf）
在第一页第一个点，San Miguel只是吃65%，以每股RM3.50的价格吃65%，第二个点，因为65%所以根据不知道哪一个law，剩下的35%必须强制性吃到完，可是，重点是，散户的票San Miguel可以选择出比当日股价还要来得高的价格，可是它选择不宣布。理由很简单，它如果设定一个比原股价高的价格吃完散户的票的话，它就理所当然得付更多的钱在这次收购战中；但是如果散户自己蠢，以为上错车而把股价烂价卖掉，那么到时候它吃剩下的票，那个烂价，它一定是一边喝着他的san miguel,一边心里大笑你们这些笨蛋！
hauzi302 发表于 18-8-2011 09:31 PM

我喜欢你这句，因为我没有喝过这酒

lyehee18

回复 10# hauzi302


    最后十五分钟看到起到4.10,来不及keying ,4.080卖了，
    小赚两百多元。